GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll shows little change from a fortnight ago, with the Coalition’s two-party lead down from 59-41 to 58-42. However, it wouldn’t be a current opinion poll if there wasn’t an unpleasant twist for the government, and this time it’s a new low on the primary vote of 26 per cent, down a point on last time. The Coalition are down as well, by two points to 48 per cent, with the Greens up one to 13 per cent. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have recovered from last week’s disaster, although they are still the second worst she has ever recorded: her approval is up four to 27 per cent and disapproval down seven to 61 per cent. Tony Abbott has failed to hold on to an improvement recorded last time, his approval down five to 34 per cent and disapproval up two to 54 per cent, and his lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-34 to 40-35.
This week’s Essential Research shows no change in voting intention, and indeed the series has not recorded any shifts worth mentioning since mid-June. The current scores are 32 per cent Labor, 49 per cent Coalition and 10 per cent Greens, with the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred. Further questions find respondents believe to be the world in general and Australia in particular to be less safe than at the time of the September 11 attacks; little change in opinion on the carbon tax, with support down two points since August 1 to 37 per cent and opposition up one to 52 per cent; continuing broad support for the idea when it is specifically tied to compensation and investment in renewable energy; a belief nonetheless that the current scheme has been rushed; and a confused picture on whether governments should control either or both houses of parliament (though it is clear not many would opt for neither).
Further:
• A by-election looms in the north coast NSW state seat of Clarence following the resignation of Nationals MP Steve Cansdell. Cansdell has admitted to signing a false statutory declaration so that a staff member could take the blame for a 2005 speeding offence, which would otherwise have cost him his licence. The last time there was a by-election in the Grafton-based seat, in 1996, the result was a triumph for Labor: months after losing his seat of Richmond at the federal election, Labor candidate won the seat from the Nationals with a swing of 14.0 per cent, adding a handy buffer to what had previously been the one-seat majority of Bob Carr’s government. This time, Labor need not bother fielding a candidate: after winning the seat on Woods’s retirement in 2003, Steve Cansdell consolidated the Nationals’ hold in 2007 before picking up a swing of nearly 20 per cent in the electoral avalanche that was the March state election, pushing his party’s margin above 30 per cent.
• The Prime Minister has flagged support for trials of American-style “primaries” as part of its preselection process for some Coalition-held seats ahead of the next election. In keeping with the recommendation of the post-election review conducted by Bob Carr, Steve Bracks and John Faulkner, 20 per cent of a preselection ballot will be determined by those willing to register as official party “supporters”. Sixty per cent will be determined by branch members and 20 per cent by affiliated trade union members. The NSW Labor Party has resolved to follow a more radical path in five electorates before the 2015 state election, with 50 per cent determined by primaries and the remainder determined by branch members and unions. Two such experiments were conducted last year, by the NSW Nationals in Tamworth and Victorian Labor in Kilsyth. The former was a highly successful effort in which 4293 voters participated in the selection of Kevin Andrews, who duly unseated independent incumbent Peter Draper; the latter was something of a damp squib, attracting only 170 participants and selecting an electorate officer who did nothing to hold back the anti-Labor tide. The lesson seems to be that a degree of community enthusiasm is requried for the procedure to be worth the effort. This is least likely to be forthcoming when the party is not a serious prospect of winning the seat, and most likely in areas where the party is traditionally strong. Herein lies the catch: it is not in such areas where party branches are moribund, which is the very ill that primaries presume to cure. All that being so, trials in Coalition-held seats do not seem greatly promising at a time when every indication suggests seats will be swinging the other way.
• Antony Green has published analyses of the New South Wales election in March and the Queensland election of October 2009. Among other things, these tell us that the respective two-party splits were 64.2-35.8 to the Coalition, with exhausted minor party votes accounting for 12.9 per cent of the total formal vote; and 50.5-49.5 to Labor, with 7.7 per cent exhausting. In New South Wales, Labor’s primary vote of 25.6 per cent was its worst result since 1904, while the Coalition’s 51.8 per cent was its best result since 1932.
• The delicate balance in the Northern Territory’s Legislative Assembly shifted a fortnight ago when Alison Anderson, who won her outback seat of MacDonnell as a Labor member in 2008 and quit the party the following year, joined the Country Liberal Party. The numbers in the chamber are now 12 each for the Labor government and CLP opposition, with Nelson independent Gerry Wood continuing to provide Labor with a decisive vote on confidence and supply.
• The New South Wales government has introduced a bill that will ban donations to political parties from organisations of any kind, and include spending by affiliated unions within caps on party spending during election campaigns. One of the Keneally government’s final acts was to set caps of $9.3 million on electoral communications spending by parties and $100,000 for each candidate, and to ban donations from the alcohol, gambling and tobacco sectors.
No Frank…even if Labor are 56/44 behind instead of 58/42 behind I iz happy 🙂
Either way if that happens on election day it’ll be the end of Ms Gillard.
Gary Sparrow,
I love thunder and lightning. I go out and just sit there watching it. I can do stuff-all about preventing it and may as well enjoy.
[She was from Ohio but is Australian now (thats the point she was making by saying she is not American)]
This clearly means she is looking to be kicked up to the House at the next election.
She wanted everyone to know that she has revoked her U.S. citizenship.
[The Greens will never support any bills which ultimately enable offshore processing.]
Connie, they better start!
They can backflip with the excuse that they; do not wish for people to make dangerous trips to our shores, are prepared to examine statistics of the potential of fewer boat arrivals with the changes to the migration act, and should oppose the business model of people smugglers.
We could face an astronomical number of boat arrivals by the next election.
If this will be a seriously major issue at the next election, Labor will lose and the Greens are going to get smashed.
And they will be going for seconds at a DD!
I say, screw the Monkey, before the Monkey screws them 😎
[If it weren’t for the deal with Malaysia we’d never have these additional 4,000 people being resettled here.]
Why?
We can do that now, without any rendition.
To say its OK for us to do something that is cruel because we are doing something kinds to someone else is ridiculous.
You can’t get off after punching someone in the face by saying you were nice to your neighbour the day before.
While the small drop in primary vote for both majors is not significant it does reflect the reality of the past 2 weeks. It’s hard to feel either happy or proud of the respective performances of Labor and the Coalition. The blatant wedging using refugees by both sides since the HC decision has not been inspiring.
It amazes me that supporters can come out strongly for either of the majors at present.
I was also surprised by the Essential result on the carbon tax. Somewhere around 30 percent of people still think the tax will be a tax on individuals? Scary and unbelievable. Unless I am misunderstanding the poll results?
I am watching it from my window ducky.
I just hope it rains a bit more too. It’ll be nice to sleep to.
Yes, ModLib, we could increase our intake without rendition, but the point is that increasing the intake alone doesn’t stop boats coming.
That’s because the demographic who currently use the boats aren’t the same demographic (by and large) we would be taking from Malaysia.
Many of those who come by boat do not spend a single day in a refugee facility prior to their arrival in Australia and spend minimal time in ‘stopover’ destinations such as Malaysia and Indonesia.
So increasing our intake alone does not stop boats.
[Either way if that happens on election day it’ll be the end of Ms Gillard.]
Polls are measures of the recent past, they don’t predict the future.
[confessions
Posted Monday, September 19, 2011 at 11:01 pm | Permalink
david:
Carbon pricing will start from July next year.]
I was not disputing the starting date I was looking ahead 18 months when life will not have suddenly recovered from a major catastrophe…that being the non existent evil of the Carbon pricing.
And ModLib, you can’t argue that the Malaysian solution didn’t stop the boats ‘while it was active’ because it never got to be ‘active’.
have i got this right???
Labor introduce the amendments to allow for off shore processing
Liberals move amendments to effectively rule out Malaysia
Labor and Greens vote down Liberal amendments
Labor go back to the debate saying if the Liberals want off shore processing they need to support the amendments, it’s their choice
Liberals and Greens vote them down
We get on shore processing WAHOO
Who gets the blame when boat one arrives???
[I was also surprised by the Essential result on the carbon tax. Somewhere around 30 percent of people still think the tax will be a tax on individuals? Scary and unbelievable. Unless I am misunderstanding the poll results? ]
Sadly that part doesn’t surprise me. Have you seen some of the anti-carbon price ads that are running on tv? They blatantly misrepresent the price by showing ‘average’ Australians wondering why they’re going to be paying ‘the world’s highest carbon tax’.
Gary Sparrow
The rain is supposed to come here tomorrow. I love being in the slow stuff. In Canberra we have enough in the dams. Where are you and how is your water storage?
[To say its OK for us to do something that is cruel because we are doing something kinds to someone else is ridiculous.]
Why?
Surely the whole rationale for the Pacific ‘Solution’ (that you voted for at two elections) was that by sending people to some busted arse Pacific micro-nation we would be discouraging more boat arrivals.
Doesn’t that fit your definition of doing something cruel to acheive a compassionate objective (stopping the boats, which most of us agree just increases the chances of asylum seekers dying at sea).
72
The Greens would loose many of their supporters if they supported offshore processing. It is 1 issue that is driving some progressive voters to the Greens from the ALP. The Greens are not just a vehicle for getting HoR preferences for the ALP and Senators who rubber stamp ALP decisions.
Hypothetically, if the Coalition opposed it and the Greens supported it then there is still no guaranty that it would get through the HoR. Wilke, Katter and Crook all supported the censure motion against the ALP so they would need to convince Wilkie too. Were Windsor and Oakeshott opposed to the policy or the censure motion? Same issue with the Greens abstaining with the added factor tat that would give the Coalition a majority of non-abstaining Senators and thus blocking it anyway.
If by some miracle the ALP got it through the HoR without the Coalition or Greens once then it was blocked in the Senate and the ALP the independents who supported it the first time may well vote against it because they do not want a DD trigger as they want the HoR to run full term.
The Government does not want a DD any time soon. HAVE YOU SEEN THE POLLS LATELY!
[Labor introduce the amendments to allow for off shore processing
Liberals move amendments to effectively rule out Malaysia]
The amendments would rule out Nauru too, because Nauru still hasn’t actually signed the refugee convention.
womble,
Accentuate the positive, reject the negative. Someone said that seventy years ago. You OK with that?
‘I am watching it from my window ducky.’…how very much a gay description, sweet.
[Who gets the blame when boat one arrives???]
Labor. They always get blamed when boats arrive.
Look like Andrew Elder’s prediction of a return to onshore, following Abbott rejection of the govt bills, is about to come true. Will be interesting to see if the other bits come true. He said the PM will end up rallying the ALP base (which it needs), but undecideds will still be unhappy until mid 2012, when Abbott will be more hubristic than ever and that will be when he declines. So we’re a way off from Peak Abbott yet!
I recall a couple of months back the PM apparently told the caucus that the polls would be bad until late in 2012, which fits in. By then all the contentious bills will be law. I wonder what will fill the political airspace then? Probably issues that aren’t on the agenda at all.
[womble
Posted Monday, September 19, 2011 at 11:06 pm | Permalink
have i got this right???
Labor introduce the amendments to allow for off shore processing
Liberals move amendments to effectively rule out Malaysia
Labor and Greens vote down Liberal amendments
Labor go back to the debate saying if the Liberals want off shore processing they need to support the amendments, it’s their choice
Liberals and Greens vote them down
We get on shore processing WAHOO
Who gets the blame when boat one arrives???
]
Your Man Tony Abbott 🙂
“Apu Voice” – Thank You, Come Again 🙂
[Why?]
Only the govt has proposed increasing our humanitarian intake.
When the Malaysia deal was announced, the coalition had apoplexy. Tone tried to spin it as a swap the boats rather than stop the boats.
Wayne Swan should be favourite to take over from Julia Gillard as our next PM as he has just been named as Euromoney’s Finance Minister of the Year.
Go you good thing!
Could we have Mary Ju all round, please?
[To say its OK for us to do something that is cruel because we are doing something kinds to someone else is ridiculous.]
There is no guarrantee that those sent to Malaysia will be treated cruelly. Indeed, they won’t be held in detention like they would be on Nauru or CI.
And turning boats around at sea (Abbott’s stated preference) is far crueller.
Shows:
Firstly, Nauru is bad but it aint as cruel as dumping women and children in another country which has no safegaurds for these people (in fact active punishment for them).
Secondly, I have stated many times before, I support mandatory health checks and security checks (the former only take a few days and the later I don’t know but it aint 3 years thats for sure), and then community release with associated supports while the application is in process. It would be a hell of a lot cheaper than the ridiculous lengths we go to at the moment to maintain this shambolic policy.
Gary Sparrow, it rains on the just and the unjust. So you have every chance of rain. Not that I wish you or the other denialistas well. Sleep well if you can and wake to repentance .
[‘I am watching it from my window ducky.’…how very much a gay description, sweet.]
David
Have you ever heard the saying if you’ve got nothing nice to say don’t say it?
Why is it so hard for you to debate the issues instead of calling someone gay because you don’t like them.
You’re post is a reflection on you character and it is not pretty.
hmmm… this has all the makings of an ugly PB nightshift
[Gary Sparrow
Posted Monday, September 19, 2011 at 11:13 pm | Permalink
‘I am watching it from my window ducky.’…how very much a gay description, sweet.
David
Have you ever heard the saying if you’ve got nothing nice to say don’t say it?
Why is it so hard for you to debate the issues instead of calling someone gay because you don’t like them.
You’re post is a reflection on you character and it is not pretty.
]
“The Member For Sturt on a Point of Order”….
That’s what that last reply sounded like.
Hey, good on Swanny. That’s great.
Mod Lib,
Have you checked the medical records of those on Nauru? Of course, you haven’t! No one outside John Howard’s minions was allowed on the island, specifically the UHNCR.
There’s a change I’ve noticed about the coverage of the PM over the past couple of days. She has not been shown smiling or doing that head-throw-back thing she does sometimes. A much more serious and solemn tone.
If we can only go for onshore processing only, then okay, that’s how we do it. However, when the tv news shows boats floundering on the rocks, how many are just going to change the channel saying, ‘Well, we tried.’
stanny
does that make Swanny the World’s Best Treasurer?
If so, suck that, Cossie!
[Firstly, Nauru is bad but it aint as cruel as dumping women and children in another country which has no safegaurds for these people (in fact active punishment for them).]
Nauru is cruel because it doesn’t discourage more boats from leaving.
The thing that discouraged boats was turning them back to Indonesia. But the Indonesian government has made it clear that there will be a diplomatic shit storm if that was to occur.
[Secondly, I have stated many times before, I support mandatory health checks and security checks (the former only take a few days and the later I don’t know but it aint 3 years thats for sure), and then community release with associated supports while the application is in process. It would be a hell of a lot cheaper than the ridiculous lengths we go to at the moment to maintain this shambolic policy.]
I support this too, but it won’t happen while the Liberal Party continues ringing all the political capital it can out of this issue.
Fiz. What do think that means? A difference in clips selected, or how she is acting?
Yay, Swannie!
So Wayne Swan now joins Paul Keating as a Finance Minister of the year.
Well deserved, Something Cossie couldn’t achieve and at the height of a mining boom.
There you go!
[I support this too, but it won’t happen while the Liberal Party continues ringing all the political capital it can out of this issue.]
amen
[Gary Sparrow
Posted Monday, September 19, 2011 at 11:13 pm | Permalink
‘I am watching it from my window ducky.’…how very much a gay description, sweet.
David
Have you ever heard the saying if you’ve got nothing nice to say don’t say it?]
Your non-sayings have pervaded.
Dearie me, dearie me. Gary Sparrow, if you are doing this sort of stuff I encourage you to fuck off lest you infest this blog.
Good evening Mr Sparrow, Frank Calabrese, all other Poll Bludger alumni! 🙂
Hmmmm, appears to be a good time to make an exit stage left.
Au revoir.
Hey, my Newspoll prediction was correct – do I get a gold star from William? 😀
Did Wayne Swan get the medal?
Just saw the Cricket score. Stumps on Day 4 and we lead by 50 odd runs with 3 wickets down. We should just play safe and conservatively as long as possible, try and survive til the middle of the afternoon session, at earliest, and grind a target of 200+ and it will likely be impossible for them to chase down in the remaining time, bringing about a draw and a 1-0 series victory for us.
As long as we don’t collapse in the morning, we’re home and dry (we only need a draw.) Any rain will be welcome! 😆
I am for tossing the whole AS issue to the Greens and the Coalition, and going with whatever comes out of their fight over it.
[143
Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Monday, September 19, 2011 at 11:20 pm | Permalink
Good evening Mr Sparrow, Frank Calabrese, all other Poll Bludger alumni!
]
Evvening Richo,
Ready to take your medicine like a Man ? 🙂
So let’s get this straight:
– The Greens join the Liberals in their opposition to the CPRS.
– Now, the Liberals join the Greens in their opposition to changes to the migration act.
Yep, we have a LNP/Greens coalition.