Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll shows little change from a fortnight ago, with the Coalition’s two-party lead down from 59-41 to 58-42. However, it wouldn’t be a current opinion poll if there wasn’t an unpleasant twist for the government, and this time it’s a new low on the primary vote of 26 per cent, down a point on last time. The Coalition are down as well, by two points to 48 per cent, with the Greens up one to 13 per cent. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have recovered from last week’s disaster, although they are still the second worst she has ever recorded: her approval is up four to 27 per cent and disapproval down seven to 61 per cent. Tony Abbott has failed to hold on to an improvement recorded last time, his approval down five to 34 per cent and disapproval up two to 54 per cent, and his lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-34 to 40-35.

This week’s Essential Research shows no change in voting intention, and indeed the series has not recorded any shifts worth mentioning since mid-June. The current scores are 32 per cent Labor, 49 per cent Coalition and 10 per cent Greens, with the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred. Further questions find respondents believe to be the world in general and Australia in particular to be less safe than at the time of the September 11 attacks; little change in opinion on the carbon tax, with support down two points since August 1 to 37 per cent and opposition up one to 52 per cent; continuing broad support for the idea when it is specifically tied to compensation and investment in renewable energy; a belief nonetheless that the current scheme has been rushed; and a confused picture on whether governments should control either or both houses of parliament (though it is clear not many would opt for neither).

Further:

• A by-election looms in the north coast NSW state seat of Clarence following the resignation of Nationals MP Steve Cansdell. Cansdell has admitted to signing a false statutory declaration so that a staff member could take the blame for a 2005 speeding offence, which would otherwise have cost him his licence. The last time there was a by-election in the Grafton-based seat, in 1996, the result was a triumph for Labor: months after losing his seat of Richmond at the federal election, Labor candidate won the seat from the Nationals with a swing of 14.0 per cent, adding a handy buffer to what had previously been the one-seat majority of Bob Carr’s government. This time, Labor need not bother fielding a candidate: after winning the seat on Woods’s retirement in 2003, Steve Cansdell consolidated the Nationals’ hold in 2007 before picking up a swing of nearly 20 per cent in the electoral avalanche that was the March state election, pushing his party’s margin above 30 per cent.

• The Prime Minister has flagged support for trials of American-style “primaries” as part of its preselection process for some Coalition-held seats ahead of the next election. In keeping with the recommendation of the post-election review conducted by Bob Carr, Steve Bracks and John Faulkner, 20 per cent of a preselection ballot will be determined by those willing to register as official party “supporters”. Sixty per cent will be determined by branch members and 20 per cent by affiliated trade union members. The NSW Labor Party has resolved to follow a more radical path in five electorates before the 2015 state election, with 50 per cent determined by primaries and the remainder determined by branch members and unions. Two such experiments were conducted last year, by the NSW Nationals in Tamworth and Victorian Labor in Kilsyth. The former was a highly successful effort in which 4293 voters participated in the selection of Kevin Andrews, who duly unseated independent incumbent Peter Draper; the latter was something of a damp squib, attracting only 170 participants and selecting an electorate officer who did nothing to hold back the anti-Labor tide. The lesson seems to be that a degree of community enthusiasm is requried for the procedure to be worth the effort. This is least likely to be forthcoming when the party is not a serious prospect of winning the seat, and most likely in areas where the party is traditionally strong. Herein lies the catch: it is not in such areas where party branches are moribund, which is the very ill that primaries presume to cure. All that being so, trials in Coalition-held seats do not seem greatly promising at a time when every indication suggests seats will be swinging the other way.

• Antony Green has published analyses of the New South Wales election in March and the Queensland election of October 2009. Among other things, these tell us that the respective two-party splits were 64.2-35.8 to the Coalition, with exhausted minor party votes accounting for 12.9 per cent of the total formal vote; and 50.5-49.5 to Labor, with 7.7 per cent exhausting. In New South Wales, Labor’s primary vote of 25.6 per cent was its worst result since 1904, while the Coalition’s 51.8 per cent was its best result since 1932.

• The delicate balance in the Northern Territory’s Legislative Assembly shifted a fortnight ago when Alison Anderson, who won her outback seat of MacDonnell as a Labor member in 2008 and quit the party the following year, joined the Country Liberal Party. The numbers in the chamber are now 12 each for the Labor government and CLP opposition, with Nelson independent Gerry Wood continuing to provide Labor with a decisive vote on confidence and supply.

• The New South Wales government has introduced a bill that will ban donations to political parties from organisations of any kind, and include spending by affiliated unions within caps on party spending during election campaigns. One of the Keneally government’s final acts was to set caps of $9.3 million on electoral communications spending by parties and $100,000 for each candidate, and to ban donations from the alcohol, gambling and tobacco sectors.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,432 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition”

Comments Page 105 of 109
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  1. The Claw
    [1934pc, I know the logic behind what you’re saying. I’m just saying that I saw, in the 2010 US house elections,]

    Your NOT comparing Australians with the American public I hope, they have been crapped on by the Republicans and the religious right for decades, and they keep begging for more!.
    They have a corrupt political, and legal system and fail to take care of their people, thats why they hate WELFARE in any form!.

  2. poroti,

    The Great Kiwi with Jim Cassidy on board as a 19 year old. Passed every other horse in the straight. Absolutely, amazing effort.

  3. [jaundiced view
    Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 3:27 pm | Permalink
    mytwobobsworth
    Thanks for the Neal, Neil, O’Neil link earlier. Quite unusual for an AVO to go to hearing. Most done by agreement – usually an undertaking not to approach the complainant, in order to avoid the sordid details in open court. Either Della’s girl is making it up, or Belinda is being belligerent]
    Are you for real?

  4. gusface @ 5156:

    [whats wrong with bonking someone 40 yrs older,
    then getting heaps of looly to begin your career

    then maybe gouging so you get a house brought for you.

    As a sign of your morals you end locking em in a back shed wearing only nappies

    then inheritting their dosh

    sounds quite LIBERAL]

    Nothing, so long as:

    1. You’re not a legal practitioner (striking off material);

    2. You’re you not a politician (disindorsement material); and

    3. You’re not caught (possible criminal charges if fraud is involved).

    Oh, and by the way, welcome back.

  5. [Had a great time at the SEN afternoon footy gig at the Bundoora hotel today.
    Kevin Bartlett was very entertaining. mainly Collingwood supporters there. All the commentators have backed Collingwood to win tonignt.]
    Pity Carlton’s gone I would have loved to seen them lose a Grand Final again, whetehr it be against Collingwood (preferably) or Hawthorn.

  6. The landline issue comes up all the time when it comes to modern opinion polling. Polls, on the eve of elections have still been fairly accurate (not hugely skewed as is suggested)

    They take demographics into account when organising their sample anyway. So if they find an abnormally high level of a particular age group in their sample, they adjust the results accordingly. It’s not a perfect science but there are ways around demographic barriers.

    If anything, opinion polling seems to be more biased towards the left than the other way around.

  9. [victoria
    Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 3:28 pm | Permalink
    Had a great time at the SEN afternoon footy gig at the Bundoora hotel today.
    Kevin Bartlett was very entertaining. mainly Collingwood supporters there. All the commentators have backed Collingwood to win tonignt.

    Go Hawks!!]
    While I agree with your barracking mode, to coin a phrase

    “Thank God your’re here”

    I need your astute analysis of the crap being presented by the usual offenders!

  10. Greensborough Growler

    [poroti,

    The Great Kiwi with Jim Cassidy on board as a 19 year old. Passed every other horse in the straight. Absolutely, amazing effort.]

    It was indeed ,so here’s to Julia “Kiwi” Gillard in the 2013 Cup 🙂

  13. See Glen is still stuck in the 58-42 groove.

    To reprise some of my comments from weeks ago – Imagine a room with 20 people in it. Just 2 of them need to change their mind and the government’s ahead. Now that doesn’t seem so hard does it?

    Given that a lot of responses to pollsters at the moment will be heavily influenced by “the vibe”, the opposition’s lead is a very fragile thing. Just a couple of stumbles by them and they’re flat on their face in the dirt. And I think they know it – hence the hysteria to make the most of the current situation before it evaporates.

  15. “NBN…will take years to roll out by which time better technologies will become more accessible not to mention it is too expensive.”

    Really, what technologies? And how is it too expensive? I am paying about $80 a month for slow unreliable service five minutes from Perth and have no cable or wireless coverage where I live (between towers apparently).

    What exactly is the Lib alternative?

  16. Hey I’m happy for you to detail the real achievements of the Gillard Govt.

    But off the top of my head I can’t think of many.

  17. Another plank in the Liberal Migration Plan discredited.

    Mr Burnside said TPVs were “very directly” the cause of 353 lives being lost in the SIEV X boat disaster on October 19, 2001.

    “Because, of course, most of the people who drowned when the SIEV X sank were women and children who were trying to be reunited with their men-folk who were already living in Australia as refugees.

    “But because they (the men) were on temporary protection visas they were denied family reunion.

    http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8351165&mch=snlink&cmp=art_8351165

  18. [In circumstances such as these there would be a number of issues involved, some of which follow:]

    Well summarised charlton.

    There was also, allegedly, at least one significant inter-vivos gift of money (which allegedly went towards Mirabella’s house purchase) at a time when, at least according to Howard’s children and his cleaner, he was “showing signs of alzheimers” and “deteriorating” in late 2006.

    According to the atricle in the Age, the formal diagnosis of alzheimer’s dementia was apparently not made until the old boy was hospitalised following a fall in late 2008.

    An interesting question will be whether Howard still had sufficient control of his faculties at the time he made the inter vivos gift to understand what he was doing.

    The same goes for the will and power of attorney.

    According to the children and cleaner quoted in the Age article, there seems to be a fair bit of evidence as to his deteriorating condition from 2004 onwards, so it may well boil down to competing forensic neuropsychologists’ assessments on the whole of the available evidence (taking ionto account the results of medical testing and investigation while hospitalised, consideration of the natural course of the illness, examination of his handwriting and letters, contemporaneous observations of his conduct and behaviour by people who had contact with him from 2004 onwards, conversations he had had with the parties during the relevant period etc etc etc ).

    If and when proceedings are initiated, we can expect a veritable shit-storm of conflicting Affidavits and expert opinions.

    All in all, this promises to be a great show.

    So get out the popcorn.

    This should easily beat At Home With Julia for drama and entertainment.

  19. [Border Protection…nope.]

    Thank you Mr Abbott

    [Budget Surplus…nope and might not even be able to.]

    And this won’t be achieved because? You have a crystal ball their sunny?

    [School Halls…waste and management.]

    Wow. Glen, this is a serious question, do you suffer from some kind of mental disorder? We’ve all been over this so many times here, all the facts and figures that have been given to you, not ONE bit of evidence from you that there’s been “waste” and yet here we are again.

    [NBN…will take years to roll out by which time better technologies will become more accessible not to mention it is too expensive.]

    NBN is rolling out and has been. And on the better technology? When? So what? Crustal ball again?

    [Alcohol and Ciggies…well who knows how the legal challenges go but a relatively good idea.]

    Huh? A “relatively” good idea? I guess that’s good enough when you have to agree with something Labor has done through clenched teeth

    [You tell me what have Labor achieved beyond 190 bills passed??]

    What have the Romans even done for us!?

  21. autocrat

    I just followed your link to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puff_adder, found this:

    [Puff adder may also refer to:

    Puff Adder (comics), a mutant supervillain in the Marvel Universe
    Julia Gillard, noxious Labour Member, too much of a fucktard to ever find a husband, in the Australian House of Representatives]

    I presume this is not what you were initially referring to?

  22. [What exactly is the Lib alternative?]

    To give billion of dollars to private companies to induce them to provide a service. This is the really expensive option. At least the NBN will make a modest profit if the Greens ever let it be sold in the future.

  24. I am happy for you to detail just one Liberal policy. Broadband will do for now. You are always complaining about being attacked. I am not attacking, just asking for constructive discussion. Can you do that?

  30. The Special Theory of Relativity rules out any particle travelling faster than the speed of light.

    However, the Abbott Lie Caveat states that Coalition Lies, unlike particles, can travel faster than the speed of light but only in specific conditions. Coalition Lies travel faster than the speed of light in any Coalition ethical, fact and policy vacuum. This is well-understood to be a universal constant.

    Curiously, the Abbott Lie Caveat also applies to quantum physics. It does not matter what size the lies are, they all travel extraordinarily fast.

    While physical properties of Coalition Lies are little understood, most psephs believe that the Lies have a curious bipolar arrangement of positive and negative charges. Thus, they are always positive for the Coalition and negative for the Government. The general negativity of the MSM means that the Coalition Lies have a positive attraction for the MSM where they demonstrate long half-lives in field conditions.

    There is another curious aspect to the Abbott Lie Caveat, known as the Abbott Fast Breeder Lie Effect. When two Coalition lies collide they split and create new lies at an exponential rate.

    This is different from the MSM Lie Repeater Effect. Whenever the MSM are bombarded with Coalition Lies they repeat them. This benign environment re-energises the Lies so that they are persistent.

  35. [Does Labor or Ms Gillard ever lie?]

    I’m not sure how an organisation lies, but all politicians change their positions, every one of them.

    As far as lies, no. Abbott on the other hand has no problem lying about facts. It doesn’t get any worse than that.

  36. Gary

    All politicians lie.

    To cry about just one side lying is just laughable considering your own side does it to the same extent as the side you’re whining about.

  37. smithe

    Having watched first hand and closely the meandering course of Alzheimer’s, my guess that it would be extremely difficult to pinpoint a moment in time when Mr Howard was no longer in sufficient control of his faculties to do legally-binding deeds.

    The real question appears to be whether they will get together and settle with what is left after the legal industry has creamed the estate, or before the legal industry gets its cut.

    I assume they will settle? Ms Mirabella to reduce the political damage; the children to ensure they get some of the moolah.

  38. Boerwar

    [However, the Abbott Lie Caveat states that Coalition Lies, unlike particles, can travel faster than the speed of light but only in specific conditions]

    Tony Abbott operates entirely in the strange world of Quantum Mechanics.

  40. [All politicians lie.

    To cry about just one side lying is just laughable considering your own side does it to the same extent as the side you’re whining about.]
    And does it matter or are some lies good and some bad? Does it depend on who says them?

  42. [All politicians lie.]

    Agreed Glen, but some do it so often and are such blatantly obnoxious shudderingly brainlocked morons about it that they really should give it up.

    Anyway, lets save hockey and Robb from having to do the lying or ignorance thing and get that greens proposal up so that if the Libs dont get their policies costed by the PBO they lose funding. We’d be doing your side a favor mate, really!!

  44. GS

    Not sensitive about Mr Abbott’s lies are we?

    [Boerwar

    Does Labor or Ms Gillard ever lie?]

    Not nearly as much as Mr Abbott’s never-ending lies about the impact of the carbon bills on everyone and every business in Australia. The poor pensioners still don’t understand they will be better off. What sort of fould liar tries to make elderly people feel terrified of what little is left of their future?

    Lie after lie after lie after lie after lie after…

    You know that this is true.

  45. I thought I read earlier that GS/Glen is going to be away for a while, please let it be!!
    I am quite happy did the booking for O/S next year earlier in the week, seem at the moment to have saved money

  47. [I wonder who’s more deluded: much of the Labor caucus or the Poll Bludger commentariat?]

    Trolling again Evan. Ever considered looking in a mirror? There you will find the true face of delusion.

  48. What all politicians do with precision is make statements aimed at creating a perception but generally leave themselves an escape route so later they can say with their hand on their heart I never promised x or y. It’s basically telling fibs and ordinary people have reached a point where they discount the escape route and just accept they lied.

    Yes Howard did it. Rudd did it. Gillard does it and Abbott does it. Even Brown has been guilty.

  50. [Boerwar
    Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 3:52 pm | Permalink
    smithe

    Having watched first hand and closely the meandering course of Alzheimer’s, my guess that it would be extremely difficult to pinpoint a moment in time when Mr Howard was no longer in sufficient control of his faculties to do legally-binding deeds]
    It doesn’t have to be Alzheimers.

    My father died 2.5 years ago. Just prior to his death, we realised our very own SM had taken him for an expensive ride – to the tune of his entire estate. Dad was very compis mentis – so no reliance on the Alzheimers factor. BUT our SM promised him a great deal in return for his estate. That was our leverage. AND it paid off, in the end.

    And we had no money. Did lots and lots and lots of footwork, studied law manuals and got ourselves an airtight legal opinion which saw our SM doing lots of behind-bars time unless she agreed to pay back the moolah.

    We now have our inheritance back intact, less $10,000. But that’s another story – nothing to do with legal fees (which totalled some $5000 in toto). It can be done.

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