GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll shows little change from a fortnight ago, with the Coalition’s two-party lead down from 59-41 to 58-42. However, it wouldn’t be a current opinion poll if there wasn’t an unpleasant twist for the government, and this time it’s a new low on the primary vote of 26 per cent, down a point on last time. The Coalition are down as well, by two points to 48 per cent, with the Greens up one to 13 per cent. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have recovered from last week’s disaster, although they are still the second worst she has ever recorded: her approval is up four to 27 per cent and disapproval down seven to 61 per cent. Tony Abbott has failed to hold on to an improvement recorded last time, his approval down five to 34 per cent and disapproval up two to 54 per cent, and his lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-34 to 40-35.
This week’s Essential Research shows no change in voting intention, and indeed the series has not recorded any shifts worth mentioning since mid-June. The current scores are 32 per cent Labor, 49 per cent Coalition and 10 per cent Greens, with the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred. Further questions find respondents believe to be the world in general and Australia in particular to be less safe than at the time of the September 11 attacks; little change in opinion on the carbon tax, with support down two points since August 1 to 37 per cent and opposition up one to 52 per cent; continuing broad support for the idea when it is specifically tied to compensation and investment in renewable energy; a belief nonetheless that the current scheme has been rushed; and a confused picture on whether governments should control either or both houses of parliament (though it is clear not many would opt for neither).
Further:
• A by-election looms in the north coast NSW state seat of Clarence following the resignation of Nationals MP Steve Cansdell. Cansdell has admitted to signing a false statutory declaration so that a staff member could take the blame for a 2005 speeding offence, which would otherwise have cost him his licence. The last time there was a by-election in the Grafton-based seat, in 1996, the result was a triumph for Labor: months after losing his seat of Richmond at the federal election, Labor candidate won the seat from the Nationals with a swing of 14.0 per cent, adding a handy buffer to what had previously been the one-seat majority of Bob Carr’s government. This time, Labor need not bother fielding a candidate: after winning the seat on Woods’s retirement in 2003, Steve Cansdell consolidated the Nationals’ hold in 2007 before picking up a swing of nearly 20 per cent in the electoral avalanche that was the March state election, pushing his party’s margin above 30 per cent.
• The Prime Minister has flagged support for trials of American-style “primaries” as part of its preselection process for some Coalition-held seats ahead of the next election. In keeping with the recommendation of the post-election review conducted by Bob Carr, Steve Bracks and John Faulkner, 20 per cent of a preselection ballot will be determined by those willing to register as official party “supporters”. Sixty per cent will be determined by branch members and 20 per cent by affiliated trade union members. The NSW Labor Party has resolved to follow a more radical path in five electorates before the 2015 state election, with 50 per cent determined by primaries and the remainder determined by branch members and unions. Two such experiments were conducted last year, by the NSW Nationals in Tamworth and Victorian Labor in Kilsyth. The former was a highly successful effort in which 4293 voters participated in the selection of Kevin Andrews, who duly unseated independent incumbent Peter Draper; the latter was something of a damp squib, attracting only 170 participants and selecting an electorate officer who did nothing to hold back the anti-Labor tide. The lesson seems to be that a degree of community enthusiasm is requried for the procedure to be worth the effort. This is least likely to be forthcoming when the party is not a serious prospect of winning the seat, and most likely in areas where the party is traditionally strong. Herein lies the catch: it is not in such areas where party branches are moribund, which is the very ill that primaries presume to cure. All that being so, trials in Coalition-held seats do not seem greatly promising at a time when every indication suggests seats will be swinging the other way.
• Antony Green has published analyses of the New South Wales election in March and the Queensland election of October 2009. Among other things, these tell us that the respective two-party splits were 64.2-35.8 to the Coalition, with exhausted minor party votes accounting for 12.9 per cent of the total formal vote; and 50.5-49.5 to Labor, with 7.7 per cent exhausting. In New South Wales, Labor’s primary vote of 25.6 per cent was its worst result since 1904, while the Coalition’s 51.8 per cent was its best result since 1932.
• The delicate balance in the Northern Territory’s Legislative Assembly shifted a fortnight ago when Alison Anderson, who won her outback seat of MacDonnell as a Labor member in 2008 and quit the party the following year, joined the Country Liberal Party. The numbers in the chamber are now 12 each for the Labor government and CLP opposition, with Nelson independent Gerry Wood continuing to provide Labor with a decisive vote on confidence and supply.
• The New South Wales government has introduced a bill that will ban donations to political parties from organisations of any kind, and include spending by affiliated unions within caps on party spending during election campaigns. One of the Keneally government’s final acts was to set caps of $9.3 million on electoral communications spending by parties and $100,000 for each candidate, and to ban donations from the alcohol, gambling and tobacco sectors.
I see Team Labor are pushing the spin that Gillards failed boat people solution is Libs fault lol. Team Labor are delusional if the public is going to believe that.
a) JWH stopped the boats with the pacific solution despite the screaming of Gillard and every lefty. Result, detention centres closed down.
b) Kev 07 canned pacific solution. Result, armada hits the high seas people die and more detention centres opens then before.
c) Gillard talks up the real Timor solution, Result, Fail.
d) Gillard talks up the real Asian whip solution. Result, high court fail.
e) Gillard refuses to pass the green solution despite being in a de facto relationship keeping her in power. Result, fail.
f) Gillard refuses to deal with the greens solution despite have her caucus being in step with the greens. Result, fail.
g) Gillard refuses to implement the LIB plan which is a proven success. Result, Fail.
h) Gillard demands Tony meet her and to pass her plan. Result, Fail tony says no and who could blame him.
Yep, its all Tonys fault.
The truth is Labor has boged up this issues from the day they won the election and no screaming spin will now polish this turd.
Labor need to swallow what pride they have left and pass the pacific solution and be done with it.
Once again Glen, who complains most about PB being all about cheerleading and insults, fails to respond when invited to actually debate policy.
have = half
It really comes down to what was the deception, when was it made and how important is the issue in peoples minds. Often people don’t believe what is being said to them so discount the deception immediately.
Generally I think most people trusted Gillard but the last 12 months have changed that. I am not sure too many people have trusted Abbott for a long time.
[Go A$ you good thing 30c till Glen gets back.]
You iz not nice Rua 😮
[victoria
Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 3:59 pm | Permalink
kezza2
Here in Melbourne, no one is interested in politics at the moment. Football is the only game in town!!]
And don’t I know it. Good to see you’ve the rest of your family at heart
But, I reckon Geelong’s nemesis is Hawthorn. So all I have to say is
Go Cats.
Glen:
[What exactly have they achieved?
Border Protection…nope.
Budget Surplus…nope and might not even be able to.
School Halls…waste and management.
NBN…will take years to roll out by which time better technologies will become more accessible not to mention it is too expensive.
Alcohol and Ciggies…well who knows how the legal challenges go but a relatively good idea.
You tell me what have Labor achieved beyond 190 bills passed??]
Border protection: the most trivial issue anyone could possibly accuse a government of having failed to achieve.
Budget surplus: for all that the government is making a big deal out of this, it’s /only/ an issue when a deficit would be inflationary – given the status of the world economy I don’t think that’s any kind of a problem right now.
BER: less than 3% complaints, “waste” that amounted to nothing more than a premium for quick implementation, “mismanagement” that was nothing more than spinning the result of different management approaches taken by different groups. All told a stimulus plan that was wildly successful, and an infrastructure investment plan that’s gotten high marks from essentially everyone.
NBN: the Snowy Scheme took years to build – did that make it a waste of time and money? When it’s rolled out we’ll have a basic level of network infrastructure that will be unmatched anywhere else in the world, and which (despite all the bullsh!t that wifi supporters like to spout) is about as future proof as you can get as far as network technologies go. Not only is fiber capable /right now/ of running at 1Gb, the infrastructure being rolled out can scale, without any changes aside from end-point hardware upgrades and with existing technology, up to at least 10Gb, and will in future be able to scale even further. This cannot be beaten.
I say all that despite the fact that I live in an area where I’ll only get fixed wireless (curse you, economies of scale!).
Plain packaging legal challenges: every single legal expert that I’ve heard comment on this issue says that the tobacco companies are stretching things /really/ thin with these supposed challenges. Realistically there’s basically no chance of the government not being able to go ahead, and there’s even less chance of any compensation being owed. On top of that, the absolute /crap/ that the tobacco companies are spewing with regards to “pirated” cigarettes and having to drop their prices to compete and so on . . . well, it makes me feel physically ill to hear it. Fortunately, if the tobacco companies /do/ drop their prices that way, the government can simply raise the excise as far as is necessary to hit their desired price point. Suck on /that/, b!tches.
Oh, and I think you’ll find that around this time last year most people would have thought that the government just /lasting/ this long would have been a major achievement, let alone being able to pass bills reliably and without massive battles at every pass, /never mind/ being able to pass bills that the opposition screams, wrings its hands, waves its metaphorical d!ck around wildly and gesticulates like an epileptic on crack about . . . I think the last year of government counts as a pretty big achievement as a whole, even if you choose to be a moron and ignore all the detailed achievements that have gone through.
Not that I expect this response to make any difference, since your comment is little more than trolling. But the more these things are stated, the louder we shout about the good this government has done, and the more often the trolling is challenged, the more likely is is that at least /some/ truth will get through.
himi
[What all politicians do with precision is make statements aimed at creating a perception but generally leave themselves an escape route so later they can say with their hand on their heart I never promised x or y. It’s basically telling fibs and ordinary people have reached a point where they discount the escape route and just accept they lied.
Yes Howard did it. Rudd did it. Gillard does it and Abbott does it. Even Brown has been guilty.]
Except when your intent was to completely lie about something in the first place, for example:
TONY JONES: Tony Abbott on another matter, have you met Archbishop Pell during the election campaign?
TONY ABBOTT: Not that I can recall.
*So, at this stage, he’s left himself a small opening, the possibility that his memory might have failed him*
TONY JONES: Not that you can recall, because we believe that you’ve had at least one meeting with him quite recently? You don’t recall that?
TONY ABBOTT: Well, when? Where?
*this closes that opening – defiant he pushes back, “prove it”*
TONY JONES: At the presbytery in Sydney.
TONY ABBOTT: Ah, actually now that you do mention it, I did met with Cardinal Pell. So what? Why shouldn’t I meet with Cardinal Pell?
*oh dear, caught out, BTW, the meeting was only 10 days before*
TONY JONES: Well, the reason we’re asking about this, obviously, because your behind-the-scenes activities in the ‘98 election were quite renowned and I’m wondering is there any possibility that in your discussions with Cardinal Pell which you couldn’t recall a moment ago – in those discussions did you actually bring up the issue of private schools?
TONY ABBOTT: Nup.
TONY JONES: Not at all?
TONY ABBOTT: Nup.
*so we’ve gone from I can’t remember to knowing 100% that they didn’t discuss this issue*
TONY JONES: Why couldn’t you recall meeting him, I think, 10 days ago?
TONY ABBOTT: Look, whenever it was, so what? Why shouldn’t I meet Cardinal Pell. Cardinal Pell is a fine man. He made a very good statement the other day about the Labor Party’s policy, why shouldn’t I meet with him?
*deflection*
[Generally I think most people trusted Gillard but the last 12 months have changed that. I am not sure too many people have trusted Abbott for a long time.]
So let me see if I’ve got this straight. They don’t trust Gillard so will vote against her and don’t trust Abbott but will vote for him. Hmm.
ajm
[To reprise some of my comments from weeks ago – Imagine a room with 20 people in it. Just 2 of them need to change their mind and the government’s ahead. Now that doesn’t seem so hard does it?]
To make your approach ‘work’, in the sense of reflecting the electorate, you need to assume a room with 100 people in it. in that case, with 42/58 2PP split you would need 8 people to change their votes to get back to 50/50 2PP.
IMHO, those 8 people are going to be very hard work for Labor.
[I assume they will settle? Ms Mirabella to reduce the political damage; the children to ensure they get some of the moolah.]
Ordinarily, I’d agree. Cases like this normally have ‘settlement’ written all over them.
Certainly Sophie has a pretty good motive to settle, but the kids?
From the Age article, they seem pretty pissed-off to me. They reckon they don’t want and don’t need the money.
As I read it, they want the truth (whatever that may be).
Any lawyer will tell you to beware the client who is Hell-bent on pursuing something like ‘the truth’ as a ‘matter of principle.’ Unless costs are going to crush them, such people usually don’t want to settle.
And from the sound of things, Howard’s kids aren’t short of the dosh necessary to pay for a good show (even in the event that their costs are not net by the estate).
[Did Howie lie?
All politicians lie.]
As the redoubtable Jack The Insider contributor, Bassman, put it (on this occasion commenting at the Daily Telegraph site)…
[Why do members of Howard’s own party call him the Lying Rodent””,invented by his colleage George Brandis I thing. Howard said he would maintain Medicare. Like hell-on taking government he tore into the teeth of 600,000 people on dental waiting lists and abolished the dental health scheme. Last year even Abbott admitted that they underfunded Medicare by over a billion dollars. Howard also said that private health insurance premiums would fall under his Caesarship..WHAT A LIE!! They have gone up 40% so far.In addition bulk billing rates tumbled under Howard. There will NEVER EVER BE A GST…what a beauty that one was…but wait there’s MORE. He then LIED the GST would not cause the price of petrol to go up.On average though, the octupus like GST costs families on average $3000 a year.And the GST was to make the tax act simpler for everybody? Another lie.It has grown from 3000-9000pages under Howard! Howard also took over a billion diollars from universities and promised THERE WOULD BE NO $100,000 university courses.The lies just rolled off Howard’s tongue!16 degrees now exist that are over $100,000.Howard won the 1996 election campaigning against a $140million national debt and a an Aussie dollar worth 70c. Howard said he would reduce this.Under Howard it grew to $600million-WHAT a LIE!!Our currency also got as low as 48c(against the USA)under Howard’s ‘économic genius’. When over 60 public servants and hundreds of sailors knew no children were thrown overboard, Howard with the resources of such spooks as ONA,the CIA,ASIO stated that he was not advised children were thrown overboard.He must have had his head in the sand!Another beauty! The demonisation of refugess as terrorists and aids infected wretches was another lie-there was no immigration “queue” for citizenship that these poor souls could join;of 9,000 processed refugees not ONE was found to be a terrorist or to have aids. It would be difficult to list all of the Howard lies associated with Workchoices.Even a million dollars a day of ads paid for by the taxpayer could not save this dead horse. We all know that we went to war in Iraq on a pack of lies.No weapons of mass destruction and no chemical weapons.Saddam had nothing at all to do with 9/11 but that didn’t stop Howard from exaggerating the intelligence to the point where some intelligence officers resigned! Howard even lied to parliament. Howard had committed troops to Iraq even though he was telling us a decision had not yet been made. And AWA!Downer knew NOTHING of the $300million we were giving Saddam even when the papers had to pass his desk?. Come off it!!We knew nothing of what was happening to David Hicks-the Americans controlled all that.Oh we must not leave Dr Haneef and Cornedlia Rau out of this. Lies by omission here..the old ”à was not advised” The good old Howard standby!!Howard even lied to our aged, saying that they would get a $1000 savings bonus.Sadly nobody read the Howard fine print. Howard will go down as the most cunning divisive dog-whistling,ego-centred,addlebrained, asinine, cloddish, crass, cretinous, dense, dim-witted, dopey, fatuous, foolish PM we have ever had.History will not treat him kindly.Let’s see what he says himself about the truth:-
Truth is absolute, truth is
supreme, truth is never
disposable in national
political life. ]
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/malcolmfarr/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/no_tricks_for_swans_budget/
[So let me see if I’ve got this straight. They don’t trust Gillard so will vote against her and don’t trust Abbott but will vote for him. Hmm.]
Yep, people cant stand Gillard (women hate her with a pasion). Abbott is the good guy next door doing his best.
[IMHO, those 8 people are going to be very hard work for Labor.]
Why?
Gary I am not sure many people decide on who to vote for based on which politician lies the least or most. It generally comes down to a few issues important at the time.
[ Abbott is the good guy next door doing his best]
At what?
Wrecking the place? ‘Cause it sure looks like it to me.
[Gary I am not sure many people decide on who to vote for based on which politician lies the least or most. It generally comes down to a few issues important at the time.]
I agree, which sort of puts to bed the notion that a change of leadership is needed. I believe much of what’s going on in the polls is to do with government policy, namely the CT, more than anything else.
rummell
[Yep, people cant stand Gillard (women hate her with a pasion). Abbott is the good guy next door doing his best.]
Nah, Abbott is more the bogan next door depressing local real estate values.
I imagine it would be a plus for Mr Abbott if Ms Mirrabella moved to the backbench while she attended to personal matters.
Gives Artie Sinodinis a gig as Industry guy?
Further to the Abbott Lie Caveat and the Coalition Lie Fast Breeder Effect, there are some curious lie properties that have intrigued observers. These have been refined into specific theorems.
Bowe’s* Theorem: In the Blogosphere, two individual truths can never collide.
Troll’s Theorem: In the Bludgersphere, a lie and a truth can collide.
Troll’s Corollary Theorem: In the Bludgersphere two lies usually collide but may evade each other in extremely high temperatures such as those found in flame wars.
The CERN has given rise to great excitement amongst psephologists. Trolls generate a sort of short-half life gravitational pull that gives the Abbott Lie Caveat a temporary gravitational sling shot effect. (This is similar to the sling shot effect whereby exploration vehicles are hurled into deep space by using, say, the gravitational pull of Saturn.)
*Named in honour of a well-known trailblazing truth moderater.
Rummel(5263) You obviously don’t read the poll, women consistently rate the Prime Minister higher than the men, get back under your rock again
Abbott the good guy is seen by over 50% as doing a shouse job.
[Yep, people cant stand Gillard (women hate her with a pasion)]
No, we don’t.
Actually quite telling that Abbott is back to boats. He is running out of other options with the CT set to pass and the NBN rollout almost irreversible.
[Nah, Abbott is more the bogan next door depressing local real estate values.]
Yep he is my Bogan leader and there is more of us then the whats left of the inner city double decaf soy mocha latte types.
I just cannot believe that the PB Commentariat is crying about the Libs lying and yet the ALP lies just as much?
In my book that is hypocrisy.
Gary I think Labor would be crazy to change leaders before the next election unless they are almost 100% convinced they are going to lose. In which case why would anyone want the job?
I have been saying all along I expect Labor to close the gap and it’s only a matter of whether it will be sufficient to win the election. There is no reason for the Coalition to be ahead 58/42 based on their own performance and they don’t seem to be doing much to improve their performance. Labor’s problem in the polls is of their own making.
[I just cannot believe that the PB Commentariat is crying about the Libs lying and yet the ALP lies just as much?
In my book that is hypocrisy.]
I remember you defending Howard’s lies with passion.
[I have been saying all along I expect Labor to close the gap and it’s only a matter of whether it will be sufficient to win the election. There is no reason for the Coalition to be ahead 58/42 based on their own performance and they don’t seem to be doing much to improve their performance.]
I agree with you there as well.
[Labor’s problem in the polls is of their own making.]
To some degree you are right but it is certainly not the full story. The MSM have played their part big time.
Oh look Glenn’s still ignoring the opportunity to raise the standards on PB by actually explaining some of the Liberal policies he supports. Much easier to keep banging on about how everyone else on PB is biased and shallow.
How much more value his criticisms would have if he didn’t constantly engage in exactly that same behaviour himself.
Gary
[IMHO, those 8 people are going to be very hard work for Labor.
Why?]
Here are a few guesses:
Because they don’t like and don’t trust Ms Gillard. Because they believe the Government is serially incompetent. Because they are unhappy that the rising house price and rising stock market price wealth effect has disappeared. Because they over-leveraged during boom times. Because they are starting to pay a real price for utilities. Because they are starting to suspect that maybe the environment is going into blowback mode after all. Because a couple of centuries of European dominance is disappearing in front of their eyes. Because the rate of change is increasing and the feeling of lack of control is magnified by this. Because they are frightened of being dependent on China. Because the US is looking less and less reliable as a patron country. Because their hopes about the future are at a low ebb. Because the soul lessness of consumerism has occurred to them and they have no alternative. Because they believe they should have it all, they should have it now and they should have it without personal pain.
You get the gist.
Sparrow and rummy doing what they do best when out from under the bridge!!!
GS
[I just cannot believe that the PB Commentariat is crying about the Libs lying and yet the ALP lies just as much?]
tsk tsk, nice try.
Mr Abbott tells one hundred lies for every one Ms Gillard tells.
Many in the media are players, not just reporters. Some of the media, such as the DT have been a bloody bloody disgrace. Sock jocks have taken sides, all one side.
[Yep he is my Bogan leader and there is more of us then the whats left of the inner city double decaf soy mocha latte types.]
Better that than an inbred, goon drinking hick.
Oh and I drink my coffee straight black, like a real man (not a far right coward)
Sock = try shock
5267 -Gary – The point you make is, I believe, a good one. Labor was, if not neck-and-neck, then only marginally behind before the announcement and subsequent outcry over the Carbon Pricing regime.
Unless I’m much mistaken, that is. Which is not altogether an unusual happenstance.
[Yep he is my Bogan leader and there is more of us then the whats left of the inner city double decaf soy mocha latte types.]
ahhh Bogans, so confident in their cesspool of ignorance
Gary the secret with the media is not to give them too many opportunities to go after you. Few things more dangerous than a reporter who can smell a little blood.
[Because they don’t like and don’t trust Ms Gillard. Because they believe the Government is serially incompetent. Because they are unhappy that the rising house price and rising stock market price wealth effect has disappeared. Because they over-leveraged during boom times. Because they are starting to pay a real price for utilities. Because they are starting to suspect that maybe the environment is going into blowback mode after all. Because a couple of centuries of European dominance is disappearing in front of their eyes. Because the rate of change is increasing and the feeling of lack of control is magnified by this. Because they are frightened of being dependent on China. Because the US is looking less and less reliable as a patron country. Because their hopes about the future are at a low ebb. Because the soul lessness of consumerism has occurred to them and they have no alternative. Because they believe they should have it all, they should have it now and they should have it without personal pain.]
That’s now but let’s see what the landscape is like in 2 years time before writing them off.
roaldan1000
[Oh look Glenn’s still ignoring the opportunity to raise the standards on PB by actually explaining some of the Liberal policies he supports.]
If you’re going to attack me at least you GS/Sparrow or spell my name correctly Glen.
If you havent been on PB long enough to know I support both the Broadband and Mental Health policies of the LNP then that’s your problem. As for the others to be honest I don’t support a lot of LNP policies as I think they are bad. Hence why I criticise Labor’s policies because I’m not going to lie and say I support all of Tones that’s for sure.
BW
Sadly you have just admitted to being a hypocrite with your flippant remark.
k2
Congratulations.
With the price of gold being what it is, the gold digging profession appears to be alive and well.
[Border Protection…nope.
Budget Surplus…nope and might not even be able to.]
yeah, Swanny saved us from all that fun you get with a recession
[School Halls…waste and management.] Absolutely, brand new classrooms for our kids, how dare those Socialists
[NBN…will take years to roll out by which time better technologies will become more accessible not to mention it is too expensive.] Bloody cars
[Alcohol and Ciggies…well who knows how the legal challenges go but a relatively good idea.] Smoking does not cause cancer
In all States bar Qld most people live in the Capital City. So the more of us may be a fallacy.
[Abbott is the good guy next door doing his best.]
Doing his best for billionaires and multinationals.
[Gary the secret with the media is not to give them too many opportunities to go after you. Few things more dangerous than a reporter who can smell a little blood.]
Trouble is if there is no blood around they’ll make up the story that they’ve seen it.
[Mr Abbott tells one hundred lies for every one Ms Gillard tells.]
I’d put it this way Boer:
Whenever Gillard opens her mouth, there’s a better than even chance that what comes out of it will be the truth.
Whenever Abbott does so, there’s no chance whatsoever. It’ll be something about the carbon pricing scheme killing babies or wiping Queensland off the map, or Labor encouraging boat people, or the NBN being a lemon no-one wants, or Economists being idiots……
You get my drift.
george
[ahhh Bogans, so confident in their cesspool of ignorance]
With their mellifluous calls of “F**k Off We’re Full” declaring their vision for the future.
Hmmmmmmm
The All Ords cracked the 4,000 barrier by the Close today.
[If you havent been on PB long enough to know I support both the Broadband and Mental Health policies of the LNP]
Glen
Given that the ALP stole Abbott’s mental health policy the difference remains the NBN.
Why do you support the Lib policy of billions of dollars in subsidies?