GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll shows little change from a fortnight ago, with the Coalition’s two-party lead down from 59-41 to 58-42. However, it wouldn’t be a current opinion poll if there wasn’t an unpleasant twist for the government, and this time it’s a new low on the primary vote of 26 per cent, down a point on last time. The Coalition are down as well, by two points to 48 per cent, with the Greens up one to 13 per cent. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have recovered from last week’s disaster, although they are still the second worst she has ever recorded: her approval is up four to 27 per cent and disapproval down seven to 61 per cent. Tony Abbott has failed to hold on to an improvement recorded last time, his approval down five to 34 per cent and disapproval up two to 54 per cent, and his lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-34 to 40-35.
This week’s Essential Research shows no change in voting intention, and indeed the series has not recorded any shifts worth mentioning since mid-June. The current scores are 32 per cent Labor, 49 per cent Coalition and 10 per cent Greens, with the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred. Further questions find respondents believe to be the world in general and Australia in particular to be less safe than at the time of the September 11 attacks; little change in opinion on the carbon tax, with support down two points since August 1 to 37 per cent and opposition up one to 52 per cent; continuing broad support for the idea when it is specifically tied to compensation and investment in renewable energy; a belief nonetheless that the current scheme has been rushed; and a confused picture on whether governments should control either or both houses of parliament (though it is clear not many would opt for neither).
Further:
• A by-election looms in the north coast NSW state seat of Clarence following the resignation of Nationals MP Steve Cansdell. Cansdell has admitted to signing a false statutory declaration so that a staff member could take the blame for a 2005 speeding offence, which would otherwise have cost him his licence. The last time there was a by-election in the Grafton-based seat, in 1996, the result was a triumph for Labor: months after losing his seat of Richmond at the federal election, Labor candidate won the seat from the Nationals with a swing of 14.0 per cent, adding a handy buffer to what had previously been the one-seat majority of Bob Carr’s government. This time, Labor need not bother fielding a candidate: after winning the seat on Woods’s retirement in 2003, Steve Cansdell consolidated the Nationals’ hold in 2007 before picking up a swing of nearly 20 per cent in the electoral avalanche that was the March state election, pushing his party’s margin above 30 per cent.
• The Prime Minister has flagged support for trials of American-style “primaries” as part of its preselection process for some Coalition-held seats ahead of the next election. In keeping with the recommendation of the post-election review conducted by Bob Carr, Steve Bracks and John Faulkner, 20 per cent of a preselection ballot will be determined by those willing to register as official party “supporters”. Sixty per cent will be determined by branch members and 20 per cent by affiliated trade union members. The NSW Labor Party has resolved to follow a more radical path in five electorates before the 2015 state election, with 50 per cent determined by primaries and the remainder determined by branch members and unions. Two such experiments were conducted last year, by the NSW Nationals in Tamworth and Victorian Labor in Kilsyth. The former was a highly successful effort in which 4293 voters participated in the selection of Kevin Andrews, who duly unseated independent incumbent Peter Draper; the latter was something of a damp squib, attracting only 170 participants and selecting an electorate officer who did nothing to hold back the anti-Labor tide. The lesson seems to be that a degree of community enthusiasm is requried for the procedure to be worth the effort. This is least likely to be forthcoming when the party is not a serious prospect of winning the seat, and most likely in areas where the party is traditionally strong. Herein lies the catch: it is not in such areas where party branches are moribund, which is the very ill that primaries presume to cure. All that being so, trials in Coalition-held seats do not seem greatly promising at a time when every indication suggests seats will be swinging the other way.
• Antony Green has published analyses of the New South Wales election in March and the Queensland election of October 2009. Among other things, these tell us that the respective two-party splits were 64.2-35.8 to the Coalition, with exhausted minor party votes accounting for 12.9 per cent of the total formal vote; and 50.5-49.5 to Labor, with 7.7 per cent exhausting. In New South Wales, Labor’s primary vote of 25.6 per cent was its worst result since 1904, while the Coalition’s 51.8 per cent was its best result since 1932.
• The delicate balance in the Northern Territory’s Legislative Assembly shifted a fortnight ago when Alison Anderson, who won her outback seat of MacDonnell as a Labor member in 2008 and quit the party the following year, joined the Country Liberal Party. The numbers in the chamber are now 12 each for the Labor government and CLP opposition, with Nelson independent Gerry Wood continuing to provide Labor with a decisive vote on confidence and supply.
• The New South Wales government has introduced a bill that will ban donations to political parties from organisations of any kind, and include spending by affiliated unions within caps on party spending during election campaigns. One of the Keneally government’s final acts was to set caps of $9.3 million on electoral communications spending by parties and $100,000 for each candidate, and to ban donations from the alcohol, gambling and tobacco sectors.
Listening to 3AW Melbourne. Tom Elliott is host. Gawd …. Given their furious pursuit of Thomson, you may expect SOME mention of Mirabella.
Nada. Not one thing. Oh, pensioners and their right to drive. That is the important issue of the day.
What a friggin joke.
poroti @ 5153
[Even sillier as a poll reported in The Jerusalem Post today had something like 67% of the Iraeli jews surveyed saying Israel should accept a vote for a Palestinian state. Not too far behind the Palestinians who were about 83% pro a yes vote.]
Glad to hear that but the poll will probably have nought effect on the leadership.
It is just amazing as a friend of mine said many years ago that a people who have suffered persecution in their lives continually refuse to offer good grace and comfort to others.
roaldan1000…of course we are all aware the sparrow man is never a hypocrite and God forbid, he be flippant?? Does G Pell wear a dress? never let the winged one get away with anything, its feeding him.
[Hmmmmmmm
The All Ords cracked the 4,000 barrier by the Close today.]
Could the ASX jockeys finally be growing a spine and starting to think for themselves instead of ‘Taking a lead from Wall St.’?
Based on the opposition hysteria and shameless media promotion of Abbott and slagging off at Labor and the PM, the Opposition should be ahead at least 65-35 at the moment. An epic fail I reckon.
i am actually in awe that the government has kept its support up so well (seriously). A great platform to use when, as they inevitably will, events start turning a little in their favour.
[Better that than an inbred, goon drinking hick.]
Yep thats Labor problem. You have jumped on your all might high horse and have been talking down us bogan and hicks. We used to be your core voters, now because we dont care or believe in GW we are all told we dumb and stupid.
dumb inbred hicks will never change there vote for a party that talks them down at every opportunity.
So much for the Party for the workers, is it white collar of blue?
My favourite thing is when they cite lattes as a fancy drink that elitist people drink at coffee shops.
Latte is pretty much the generic coffee ordered by most people in cafes when they don’t care. Nobody who actually enjoys coffee wastes their time with lattes. And they certainly don’t add crap to it. (Mocha if in the mood and soy only if preferring white and lactose intolerant)
There’s more pretension on the Hungry Jacks menu.
The change to wikipaedia didn’t last too long – some Liberal dimwit (who probably reads this blog) change the entry to “Julia Gillard – “. What I want to know is this: why are so many right wingers totally lacking in humour and wit? The point of putting Mirabella in there is that she’s commonly known as “The Puff Adder” by her detractors. As far as I know Gillard hasn’t, to date, been commonly referred to as a puff adder.
Honestly, small children do the same as that by shouting “you are” back to anyone who insults them. At least they have an excuse – they’re young and inexperienced, and their verbal skills and/or sense of humour usually hasn’t developed to the point where they can think up something biting or intelligent to say. The same goes for the knobend who modified the Puff Adder page, although they’re presumably an adult with a deficient intellect.
Here’s a clue – perhaps if you’d wanted to be a bit clever, you could have modified this disambiguation page, it would have been more fun.
On the bright side, a total lack of imagination is unlikely to be terminal, just very boring for everyone else.
[Boerwar
Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 4:29 pm | Permalink
k2
Congratulations.
With the price of gold being what it is, the gold digging profession appears to be alive and well.]
You’re not wrong.
But it has taken its toll.
smithe
[Mr Abbott tells one hundred lies for every one Ms Gillard tells.
I’d put it this way Boer:
Whenever Gillard opens her mouth, there’s a better than even chance that what comes out of it will be the truth.
Whenever Abbott does so, there’s no chance whatsoever. It’ll be something about the carbon pricing scheme killing babies or wiping Queensland off the map, or Labor encouraging boat people, or the NBN being a lemon no-one wants, or Economists being idiots……
You get my drift.]
One of the difficulties in understanding the Abbott’s Lie Caveat and the Coalition Lie Fast Breeder Effect is how to address the issue of uncertainty. I acknowledge that smithe has prior publication on this effect. Therefore,
smithe’s Abbott Lie Certainty Theorem: There is close to 100% certainty that Mr Abbott will tell a lie every time he opens his mouth.
I suspect that this Theorem is susceptible to empirical testing and that it may have to be revised to something like:
smithe’s Abbott Lie Certainy Theorem Variant A: There is a better than even chance in any interview, speech or rant that Mr Abbott will tell a lie.
The proof is in Mr Abbott’s magic pudding.
[and have been talking down us bogan and hicks.]
Good, that’s more attention than you/they deserve
[Yep thats Labor problem. You have jumped on your all might high horse and have been talking down us bogan and hicks. We used to be your core voters, now because we dont care or believe in GW we are all told we dumb and stupid.
dumb inbred hicks will never change there vote for a party that talks them down at every opportunity.
So much for the Party for the workers, is it white collar of blue?]
Classic trolling.
94% pass
[Gary Sparrow
Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 4:29 pm | Permalink
roaldan1000
Oh look Glenn’s still ignoring the opportunity to raise the standards on PB by actually explaining some of the Liberal policies he supports.
If you’re going to attack me at least you GS/Sparrow or spell my name correctly Glen.
If you havent been on PB long enough to know I support both the Broadband and Mental Health policies of the LNP then that’s your problem. As for the others to be honest I don’t support a lot of LNP policies as I think they are bad. Hence why I criticise Labor’s policies because I’m not going to lie and say I support all of Tones that’s for sure.
BW
Sadly you have just admitted to being a hypocrite with your flippant remark.
]
A reminder AGAIN:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EppVADD8Ht4
Glen to a Tee.
And Harry did you a favour.
And something to accompany the lemons our Liberal bridge dwellers are sucking on…
S&P affirms Australia’s AAA rating, SYDNEY (Dow Jones)–A recent move by fixed-income investors toward greater differentiation between Australia and some of its states was extended Friday after Standard & Poor’s reaffirmed the federal government’s rating at AAA but cut its outlook on South Australia.
Good piece on a controversial topic.
http://thereferral.wordpress.com/2011/09/23/nation-seeks-politicians-without-fault-apply-within/
[The change to wikipaedia didn’t last too long – some Liberal dimwit (who probably reads this blog) change the entry to “Julia Gillard – “.]
Oh, so Julia Gillard is doing her best for billionaires, multinationals, Big Tobacco, Big Gambling and Big Media.
Liberal suckholes. 😀
autocrat
The PB person who changed the Puff Adder page is from SA. Own up bludger we know who it was. 😛
[S&P affirms Australia’s AAA rating, SYDNEY (Dow Jones)–A recent move by fixed-income investors toward greater differentiation between Australia and some of its states was extended Friday after Standard & Poor’s reaffirmed the federal government’s rating at AAA but cut its outlook on South Australia.]
david…. we’re doomed!
rua
Sorry, I was a bit ambiguous. It cracked the 4,000 barrier on the way down and closed below 4,000.
[Good, that’s more attention than you/they deserve]
and thats why Labor currently has double the votes of the greens, its gutter politics alright.
[What I want to know is this: why are so many right wingers totally lacking in humour and wit? The point of putting Mirabella in there is that she’s commonly known as “The Puff Adder” by her detractors. As far as I know Gillard hasn’t, to date, been commonly referred to as a puff adder. ]
Right-Wing Projection – the tendency of right-wingers to project their side’s negative attributes onto their opponents.
Hi Folks .
Just returned from a stint in the USA. boy have they got some problems.
Must say its a fantastic place though, enjoyed every minute.
On the political front..the Repugnant party in USA and the Libs here using exactly the same tactics even to the point of suggesting Obama step aside and let Hilary Clinton run for pres…. you know because his poll numbers are so low…sound familiar.
The main difference between us is, that there are some left leaning newspapers and talk back shows etc. where an alternative point of view can get out…here it is wall to wall ignorance.
Also noticed Gillard bashing still the go and the Australian (Chris Mitchell) still rubbibg up against Abbots leg.
[Yep thats Labor problem. You have jumped on your all might high horse and have been talking down us bogan and hicks. We used to be your core voters, now because we dont care or believe in GW we are all told we dumb and stupid.
dumb inbred hicks will never change there vote for a party that talks them down at every opportunity.
So much for the Party for the workers, is it white collar of blue?]
No, that’s a myth fueled by the fact that you resent that society treats you like the anti-social knob you are. You resent “elitists” not because they look down on you (as if you lot aren’t guilty of the same) but because they actually work for a living and live a decent life, without expecting the government to wipe their bums for them. You resent that they are not consumed by hatred and bigotry and that they are pro-social security, not to help themselves but to help others.
So, that’s your problem. You live in a cycle of demanding the government cater to your needs and your aspirations. You’re the elitist. And it’s your vote (well not yours, personally, obviously) that governments bend over backwards to earn.
On lying, all human being lie – without it society would be impossible. From the little white lies to those told to avoid embarassing someone to those told to get us out of a bit of a scrape. Politicians are no different.
I’m more concerned with what they DO, rather than what they SAY, provided they’re not too blatant and extreme in the lying stakes. Just the same as my relationships with other people – I’m quite happy if they lie about my appearance, intelligence, etc (on the positive side of course) and I’d also rather they don’t upset me by telling the truth sometimes. However, if they tell big negative lies about me I obviously don’t like it, but I don’t mind so much if they tell moderate sized lies about people I don’t particularly like. Are any of you much different? REALLY?
If Abbas is going to ask the UN Security Council to vote on Palestine, how does Australia get to vote?
[and thats why Labor currently has double the votes of the greens, its gutter politics alright.]
I don’t care – I don’t listen or talk to Bogans. Vote for the Libs if you think they’ll help with your Bogan needs
[No, that’s a myth fueled by the fact that you resent that society treats you like the anti-social knob you are.]
so here we go, back to your elitists bogan theory.
Hold onto it very tight, you will need it in two years to explain the election loss.
No jobs for women
________________
The sad facts of history shows that in the state sphere in OZ no woman either Premiers like Kirner/Lawrence/Kennelly/Carnell(ACT LIB) or Redmond the Lib Opp. Leader in SA last election…. have won an election Clare Martin did win in the NT but hell…that the NT and half the voters are drunk a lort of the time..so it doesn’t count.
Bligh did win last time in Qland a fluke perhaps …but is now 20% behind Newman.
So the sad fact is that women NEVER win elections in this country so if Fed Labor is to have any hope at all it has to be led by a MAN…Rudd/SmithCombet/might win…but no woman will….so Gillard’s gotta go !
Sorry about that Glass ceiling Girls ..but that’s the way things are in OZ…no place for a Lady…sorry !
[george
Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 4:49 pm | Permalink
and thats why Labor currently has double the votes of the greens, its gutter politics alright.
I don’t care – I don’t listen or talk to Bogans. Vote for the Libs if you think they’ll help with your Bogan needs
]
You mean like they did for Colin Batnett and got a 50%+ increase in utiklities charges ?
So the worlds greatest treasurer, despite the Oppositions attempts to discredit the countrys international standing, reigns over the greatest performing economy in the developed world. 15 mins to knock off time and a cold tinny or few for ‘Swanee the Greatest.’ A star is born.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKY4EoHU3dc
Mytwobobsworth
[Glad to hear that but the poll will probably have nought effect on the leadership.]
Sadly you are right.Having a guy like Avigdor Lieberman as foreign minister is a disgrace.
[If Abbas is going to ask the UN Security Council to vote on Palestine, how does Australia get to vote?]
I think the General Assembly will likely vote too, just to show what the level of international support is.
Even if not, it’s still the stance that matters.
rua
[If Abbas is going to ask the UN Security Council to vote on Palestine, how does Australia get to vote?]
Probably going to be a General Assembly vote as well to try to put pressure on the Council.
Short Answer…
The LNP Broadband Policy is better because the old saying is true one size does not fit all.
[so here we go, back to your elitists bogan theory.
Hold onto it very tight, you will need it in two years to explain the election loss.]
At least we’ll have a way to reason and analyse the why. Bogans just accept whatever horseshit is fed to them. Then, when they realise they’ve been f*cked over, they cry like babies with pitchforks in hand. Enjoy your ignorance, you wear it well.
[The LNP Broadband Policy is better because the old saying is true one size does not fit all.]
terrible argument. Will the LNP Broadband solution come in different colours?
[The main difference between us is, that there are some left leaning newspapers and talk back shows etc. where an alternative point of view can get out…here it is wall to wall ignorance.]
There isn’t one – REPEAT: NOT ONE! – Labor-friendly media outlet in the country.
With that rigged a playing field in their favour the Liberals should be polling 90:10.
On a level media field the Liberals would be made a minor party within six months.
GS
tsk tsk. There you go. Calling me hypocritical when I was telling the truth about my view that Mr Abbott is in a class of his own when it comes to lying. That was 100 per cent sincere. You should apologise for not telling the truth about my position.
Mr Abbott is the biggest liar Australian politics has seen for decades. He tells more lies than anyone I can recall. He tells bigger lies than anyone I can recall. He even tells lies about his lies.
He doesn’t stumble into the occasional porkie. He doesn’t have to do a bit of fumbling with an awkward truth. He doesn’t do it to try and make some change to some policy position look reasonable.
Oh no. None of that normal sort of stuff that politicians do.
Mr Abbott just makes stuff up. He makes facts up. He has made hundreds of facts up about the carbon bills. And then rants about the facts as if they are true. He makes stuff up all the time. He does it every day. He does it without shame.
For Mr Abbott there is only thing that is consistent: his lying.
Mr Abbott’s lying is serial, strategic and shameless. No hypocrisy in that statement at all.
rommel
[Yep thats Labor problem. You have jumped on your all might high horse and have been talking down us bogan and hicks. We used to be your core voters, now because we dont care or believe in GW we are all told we dumb and stupid.
dumb inbred hicks will never change there vote for a party that talks them down at every opportunity.
So much for the Party for the workers, is it white collar of blue?]
Give us a break. You have never been interested in the the worker or the conditions of workers. You just love to sing from the LNP songsheet. Keep telling the real workers that they’re dumb inbred hicks. Keep saying that’s what the ALP think of them. We know you’re a propagandist in the true Lib tradition.
david 5330
Gold for Swan and a cold tinny of Swan Gold for you http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omaAzfuxx_w
[I think the General Assembly will likely vote too, just to show what the level of international support is.]
I doubt it very much Abbas would get too much support. Just my opinion, I doubt Australia will get to vote on the issue this time.
Ajm@5305
Agree and while I must confess to being a Rudd groupie , I have no problem with PM Gillard and am in awe of her tenacity and phsical and mental strength in dealing with the msm.
Saw todays headlines for example..SMH disgusting, the OZ and Telegraph just as bad, but still she gets up in the morning and does her job…how easy is it to be opp.leader, never questioned , never interviewed at length , never criticised …58-42 under those circumstances is remarkable. IMO.
Ruawake:
[The PB person who changed the Puff Adder page is from SA. Own up bludger we know who it was. 😛 ]
I went in and changed it back, and got a rap on the knuckles from whoever fixed it up . . .
Also, ISPs regularly hand out IPs from one state pool in another state – I used to get an SA address when I was on Internode in Canberra, though these days I’m in a NSW pool. No guarantee it was actually someone from South Australia.
himi
[The LNP Broadband Policy is better because the old saying is true one size does not fit all.]
What does this mean Glen? Do you know what the Lib policy is? Is it the one taken to the last election, is the the fibre to the node Turnbull mk II model, what is it?
[5336
george
Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 4:53 pm | Permalink
The LNP Broadband Policy is better because the old saying is true one size does not fit all.
terrible argument. Will the LNP Broadband solution come in different colours?
]
You mean like that being on pair gans and unable to get no more than 28.8K and NO Broadband was ok ?
I suffered that and if it wasn’t for my contstant whinging to Telstra – oh and the RAM8 they put in and affected the main line and fall over EVERY weekend without fail – Telstra wouldn’t have connected ou street to the local sub-exxchange 3 kms away and I wouldn’t be on ADSL.
and that was under ther Libs.
[deblonay
Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 4:50 pm | Permalink
No jobs for women
________________
The sad facts of history shows that in the state sphere in OZ no woman either Premiers like Kirner/Lawrence/Kennelly/Carnell(ACT LIB) or Redmond the Lib Opp. Leader in SA last election…. have won an election Clare Martin did win in the NT but hell…that the NT and half the voters are drunk a lort of the time..so it doesn’t count.
Bligh did win last time in Qland a fluke perhaps …but is now 20% behind Newman.
So the sad fact is that women NEVER win elections in this country so if Fed Labor is to have any hope at all it has to be led by a MAN…Rudd/SmithCombet/might win…but no woman will….so Gillard’s gotta go !
Sorry about that Glass ceiling Girls ..but that’s the way things are in OZ…no place for a Lady…sorry !]
And you see no irony in the self-contradiction of your own argument. Speaks volumes about you.
smithe @ 5218:
[In circumstances such as these there would be a number of issues involved, some of which follow:
Well summarised charlton.
There was also, allegedly, at least one significant inter-vivos gift of money (which allegedly went towards Mirabella’s house purchase) at a time when, at least according to Howard’s children and his cleaner, he was “showing signs of alzheimers” and “deteriorating” in late 2006.]
Thanks for the additional input, especially discussion of the evidentiary matters.
As you say wwtte, Alzheimer’s does not appear overnight: there’s a usually a period, sometimes quite a long period, between onset & diagnosis, though people may have lucid periods in between.
Thus the scene is set for a very interesting proceeding if it gets to that.
I kind of think that even if the case doesn’t reach court, the prospective defendant may be looking for a new career – but not in law or politics, which will please BK no end.
[so here we go, back to your elitists bogan theory.]
We’re not the ones who drive around yelling insults at passers-by because it makes us feel good about ourselves.
We’re not the ones who are crying because there’s another demographic who lives a different lifestyle.
We leave you in peace, you start shit. We aspire to better ourselves, you stand in line with your grubby paws out wanting shit.
I worked hard to be where I am and still am working hard to better myself. I don’t sit there watching what other people are doing and complaining.
The current policy which as far as I am aware allows for a pleathera of different broadband initiatives to give people choice, high speeds and low costs.
ajm # 5305, exactly sometimes it’s hard not to be affected by the constant propaganda ,even when your aware of it .