Morgan: 56.5-43.5 or 53.5-46.5 or 57-43 or 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has released two sets of poll results simultaneously, by way of confusing the hell out of everybody who doesn’t pay more attention than they ought to. One combines the results of the last two weekends’ face-to-face polling; the other is a phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday nights from a big sample of 1006. Furthermore, Morgan as always publishes separate two-party results using both respondent-allocated preferences and preferences as directed at the previous election, and these continue the recent trend of being highly divergent.

For mine, the most significant of the resulting four sets of figures is the previous-election two-party measure from the phone poll, as this has been conducted with the same methodology and from a similar sample size as Newspoll. Unfortunately, this particular result does not make sense to me. Whereas the primary vote figures are slightly better for the Coalition than this week’s Newspoll – 49 per cent against 29.5 per cent for Labor and 12 per cent for the Greens, compared with 47 per cent, 29 per cent and 12 per cent – the previous-election two-party result is a fair bit worse: 54.5-45.5 compared with Newspoll’s 56-44. Applying the preference flows from the previous election (with 79 per cent of Greens preferences and 42 per cent of all other minor party and independent preferences going to Labor) produces a result of 57-43. That, as it happens, is the result Morgan has listed for its respondent-allocated measure – which is not to suggest they have run them the wrong way around.

The phone poll also comes with attitudinal questions, finding global warming scepticism at a plateau of 37 per cent after a steady increase over the previous three years; opinions on the carbon tax more or less unchanged since a month ago with support at 38 per cent and opposition at 58 per cent; and support for the Coalition’s policy of overturning the carbon tax down three points to 45 per cent with opposition up three to 48 per cent. There is also a flawed question on asylum seekers which invites respondents to choose between allowing boat arrivals to apply for immigration or subjecting them to the Malaysia solution, with no further options available. This finds 52 per cent appearing to support the Malaysia solution, contrary to last week’s Essential Research, but this is almost certainly because it’s the “tougher” of the only two alternatives presented.

The face-to-face poll shows essentially no change on the previous published result from the weekends of July 16-17 and July 23-24. Labor’s primary vote is steady on a relatively healthy 34.5 per cent, the Coalition is up half a point to 47.5 per cent and the Greens are steady on 12 per cent. The respondent-allocated two-party result is unchanged on 56.5-43.5, while the previous-election result is up from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5. This time, the latter figure is exactly where I would expect it to be.

In other news, draft federal boundaries for South Australia were published today: see the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,111 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 or 53.5-46.5 or 57-43 or 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  1. [Just seeing PJK in full flight really does show up our current crop of leaders and their inability to speak with any gravitas as pollies like Keating.]

    I must agree.

    Julia’s quite fluent in parliament when she’s on the attack and can be devestatingly effective but she enunciates when doing pressers. I don’t know why. Rudd was OK but a bit, I dunno, nerdy? Tanner was great. Swanny struggles a bit.

    Abbott is of course the most painful man to listen to and simply exudes dishonesty everytime he opens his mouth. Ditto Sloppy most of the time these days. Prissy’s the resident joke. Turnbull sounds like a company director. Barnaby, sigh…

    Yep, they don’t make ’em like PJ anymore – but Julia’s doing well in very difficult circumstances.

  3. Mordor is leaving no stone legal door unopened in his fight for survival.
    The fact that he is spending like a man with no arms on the kind of legals he is retaining seems to me he is very concerned about the well being of his company going forward. Methinks he is quietly filling his OPDs.

    For all you need to know about Rupert Murdoch, look at his lawyers.

    [In addition to Arnold & Porter, Klein and Dinh retained another top Washington law firm, Williams & Connolly, and the firm’s highly skilled criminal defence attorney, Brendan Sullivan, to assist with the criminal investigation in the US. Klein and Dinh retained Mark Mendelsohn, who until recently had been the deputy chief, fraud section, criminal division, of the US department of justice, and understands the department’s thinking about prosecuting under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (which prohibits American businesses from bribing foreigners to assist their business, and appears applicable to some of the allegations against News Corp).

    In addition, they hired Bush’s former attorney general Michael Mukasey and former Manhattan US attorney Mary Jo White, both of Debevoise & Plimpton, to assist with the investigation. Criminal prosecutions are always a matter of discretion, and Klein, Dinh and their hires are friends and former associates of those who might undertake any prosecution of News Corp.

    Klein and Dinh surely now know the full extent of their problems. If they could state that no person remaining in the News Corp organisation, or the corporation itself, was involved in any criminal misconduct, there would be no reason for them to remain silent. Such a statement would largely end the story. The fact that the lawyers have absolved no one suggests to me that they have discovered potentially serious problems. Only Murdoch is suggesting the scandal will remain in the UK, and he is not the most reliable source………………………
    If the problems are half as serious as the level of legal talent retained suggests, I would not be surprised if News Corp co-operates with the prosecutors to get this matter behind the organisation. Rupert might throw his son James to the wolves. If evidence of wrongdoing by senior figures is found, the lawyers can defend it while requiring the government to prove its case, but they cannot assist in a cover up – a reality I learned the hard way. Rather they must withdraw from representation. And if that happens, we will all know they are fleeing a sinking ship.]

    http://www.opednews.com/populum/linkframe.php?linkid=136278

  7. [drake
    You can bet that in that photo the Major was hinting to Fawlty that it was six o’clock, time for the bar to open.]

    😆

    The Major and Basil were an hysterical pairing. Basil thought the Major was a silly old deaf War veteran and the Major – much to his credit – couldn’t have cared less what the neurotic Fawlty thought, as long as he served up the turps on time.

  8. [I believe that the Nielsen Poll coming out tonight is ALP 42 L/NP 58 but I can’t confirm that.]

    I still remember Nielsen said Rudd Labor was going to win 57-43 on election eve 2007…

  10. ALP 42 / LNP 58

    I think we should start to take notice of polls at least after the carbon tax has been implemented and is operational.

  11. Mr Fraser would never support his policy ideas to free up our economy which was stuck in a ’1950s’ thinking world.

    Fraser has repeatedly asked howard to produce the cabinet papers where howard *supposedly* proposed economic reform of the nature he now claims.

    Total silence from howard on the matter. Like you glen when you are continually asked her to back up your thought bubbles with *fact*.

    Just YOU now produce the evidence that

    Mr Fraser would never support his policy ideas to free up our economy which was stuck in a ’1950s’ thinking world.

    You have made the claim – support it with fact.

  15. [If that Nielsen result is accurate, that would be +3 to the ALP … small improvement but still hideously bad]

    Spur the last Nielsen was an outlier and a fluke as are all 60+ TPP.

    If it is 58/42 then it’s status quo.

  16. I think we should be giving Hawke more credit than Keating for the Labor economic reforms of the 80’s.

    I think Hawke has been the best PM since Menzies and Keating easily the best treasurer ahead of Swan then Cossie.

  18. [I believe that the Nielsen Poll coming out tonight is ALP 42 L/NP 58 but I can’t confirm that.]

    We’re still firmly set in the trenches comrades.

    Heads down and pass the ammo…

  19. Gary Sparrow

    Probably right. If that result is accurate, I’d be guessing that the ALP’s primary vote on Nielsen is still under 30

  21. True GG, as William reminds us. But I still want to see each poll tick a little each way depending on how the politics of the previous weeks rides. The Govt has had the last two weeks to play to it’s strengths, and it’s done that, so a little positive is deserved. I acknowledge that Ghost has not been able to confirm …. but Ghost, you are not often off the mark.

  23. Gaffhook

    [Mordor is leaving no stone legal door unopened in his fight for survival.]

    Blimey! At this rate, he’ll single-handedly pull the US out of recession.

    I bet the Poms would like to see some of that sort of dosh splurged over there in old Blighty! 😉

  25. Labor optimists might like to note that 58-42 would be a solid improvement on the last Nielsen (61-39), and that Nielsen has consistently been three points worse for Labor than Newspoll throughout this year.

  27. [I know hating Devine from the outset saves time on thinking and considering her opinions.]
    Divine uses the term “traditional marriage”, which means she must accept things such as “non-traditional marriage” or even “historical marriage”.

    Which proves that the meaning of marriage has changed over time, which supports the simple proposition that marriage should now be changed so it doesn’t include gender based discrimination.

  31. dave

    Howard established the Committee of Inquiry into Australia’s Financial System chaired by Mr Campbell in 1979.

    This report argued in favour of…
    1. Floating the $A.
    2. Abolishing exchange controls.
    3. Admitting foreign banks.
    4. The removal of controls on interest rates.

    Fraser and others in Cabinet rejected floating the dollar and Doug Anthony was against removing interest rate controls.

    Howard recommended in a submission to the Monetary Policy Committee in February 1982 that they commence the process of deregulating interest rates on housing loans of less than $100,000. Fraser rejected it.

    Howard moved towards allowing foreign banks into Australia a move which Keating objected to.

    Howard argued in favour of deregulating lending rates but was rebuffed.

    Fraser was stuck in the non-interventionist tariff driven protective economy of the Menzies era and this was why he and Howard fell out because Howard was an economic dry who favoured greater market liberalisation and smaller government.

  33. Glen,

    I’d believe Malcolm Fraser long before I’d even contemplate thinking about giving anything Howard said, any scerick of credence whatsoever!

  35. WB(1982) I think I am an optimist, as that will mean Newspoll would be 55/45? Guess this poll would have been taken before TA had his “Moment”?

  39. vic,

    He says he is ungaggable.

    I’m sure there are a few disgruntled Liberal power brokers prepared to test the theory.

  44. Gary Sparrow

    Replace John Howard for John Hewson and Professor John Rose and what you wrote is accurate.

    Read Unfinished Business by David Love (founder of Australia’s leading financial journal at the time Syntec)

  50. SK

    Thanks and no apology required. We have gone through these notes already. We have given up for tonight. Trying again tomorrow!!

    Your assistance is much appreciated

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