Morgan: 56.5-43.5 or 53.5-46.5 or 57-43 or 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has released two sets of poll results simultaneously, by way of confusing the hell out of everybody who doesn’t pay more attention than they ought to. One combines the results of the last two weekends’ face-to-face polling; the other is a phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday nights from a big sample of 1006. Furthermore, Morgan as always publishes separate two-party results using both respondent-allocated preferences and preferences as directed at the previous election, and these continue the recent trend of being highly divergent.

For mine, the most significant of the resulting four sets of figures is the previous-election two-party measure from the phone poll, as this has been conducted with the same methodology and from a similar sample size as Newspoll. Unfortunately, this particular result does not make sense to me. Whereas the primary vote figures are slightly better for the Coalition than this week’s Newspoll – 49 per cent against 29.5 per cent for Labor and 12 per cent for the Greens, compared with 47 per cent, 29 per cent and 12 per cent – the previous-election two-party result is a fair bit worse: 54.5-45.5 compared with Newspoll’s 56-44. Applying the preference flows from the previous election (with 79 per cent of Greens preferences and 42 per cent of all other minor party and independent preferences going to Labor) produces a result of 57-43. That, as it happens, is the result Morgan has listed for its respondent-allocated measure – which is not to suggest they have run them the wrong way around.

The phone poll also comes with attitudinal questions, finding global warming scepticism at a plateau of 37 per cent after a steady increase over the previous three years; opinions on the carbon tax more or less unchanged since a month ago with support at 38 per cent and opposition at 58 per cent; and support for the Coalition’s policy of overturning the carbon tax down three points to 45 per cent with opposition up three to 48 per cent. There is also a flawed question on asylum seekers which invites respondents to choose between allowing boat arrivals to apply for immigration or subjecting them to the Malaysia solution, with no further options available. This finds 52 per cent appearing to support the Malaysia solution, contrary to last week’s Essential Research, but this is almost certainly because it’s the “tougher” of the only two alternatives presented.

The face-to-face poll shows essentially no change on the previous published result from the weekends of July 16-17 and July 23-24. Labor’s primary vote is steady on a relatively healthy 34.5 per cent, the Coalition is up half a point to 47.5 per cent and the Greens are steady on 12 per cent. The respondent-allocated two-party result is unchanged on 56.5-43.5, while the previous-election result is up from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5. This time, the latter figure is exactly where I would expect it to be.

In other news, draft federal boundaries for South Australia were published today: see the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,111 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 or 53.5-46.5 or 57-43 or 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  3. [1877
    ShowsOn…….Devine craps on a lot about “traditional marriage” in that article.

    Surely she should understand that if you want to get really traditional, women were considered the man’s property, and around that some time some men were the property of other men too.

    Marriage as we know it now is somewhat less than traditional, which proves it is an institution that has changed over time, and will keep on changing in the future.]

    Marriage in the Western Tradition is also a case study in the advantages of having a monopoly. Somehow or other, the Church gained the right to regulate matrimony. Control of this central, involuntary organising instrument of social life allowed the Church to define marriage as a matter requiring a formal endorsement, known in the trade as a sacrament. This gave the Church control of a lovely income that continues unabated to this day. Of course, there has been a lot of cross-selling too, especially of insurance products (baptisms and funerals) and, at one time, inter-generational mortgage schemes (indulgences).

  4. So Glen = Garry Sparrow? OK!

    Well that’s two out of three for me so far:

    Broncos – Win
    Warriors – Win
    Raiders – Lose

    The Bunnies were OK today. I better give the mars bars for breakfast a miss this week just in case 😆

    The Dogs will win tomorrow night 😉

  6. Drake.
    Diog.
    TLM.
    Charlton.
    Vera.
    Centre.
    Confessions.
    BK.
    TP.

    The list is longer than that but you get my drift…

  7. Tom Watson said last week that there were some bombshells about to land in the hacking enquiry next week.

    Perhaps they are recalling three top guns to ask some fresh questions just to make sure the bombshells are properly fused and not fizzers. Just a couple of range finders before the fire for effect orders.

    Recalling three top guns to answer fresh questions.

    [The Commons Culture, Media and Sport Committee is expected to request three former News of the World executives to give fresh evidence when Parliament returns next month. News International chairman James Murdoch is not to be recalled until other witnesses have been heard.

    The cross-party committee wrote to former News of the World editor Colin Myler and the legal manager Tom Crone after they claimed Mr Murdoch had misled MPs during his evidence session last month.

    Jon Chapman, News International’s head of legal affairs, will also be recalled.]

    http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/264872/Hacking-row-Newsmen-face-recall

  11. BK,

    Glen when he goes “Basil……Basil……Basil” in some futile effort to impose his will on the real world.

  12. BK @ 1910 I think it may be a reference to me saying that Glen had a ‘Sybil’-like propensity for taking on identities, earlier this week, but then again, it is not an original thought!

  16. [This gave the Church control of a lovely income that continues unabated to this day. Of course, there has been a lot of cross-selling too, especially of insurance products (baptisms and funerals) and, at one time, inter-generational mortgage schemes (indulgences).]
    Well the State had to get marriage off of religious institutions because they used it as a tool to discriminate against people of different faiths.

  21. Glen,

    We’ve had a bit of fun stirring Frank and pussycat, now kindly remove me from your list of preferred civil conversationalists so you and I can get back to bitterly arguing politics.

    Starting with your ridiculous assertion that Howard wasn’t responsible for the dreadful economic record of the Fraser government. He was treasurer for goodness sake !!

  22. Tea cup. Just did a quick poll of visitors to the homestead, here for dinner, showed your last few whining comments..13 out of 13 shared various negatives in response. Appears by majority, it is way passed your bedtime 😆

  26. BK,

    I don’t think it matters how often you see replays. You can’t help but laugh just as much as the first time you watched it.

    My second favourite series was dad’s Army.

    They just don’t do comedy like that any more.

  28. scorps
    Yes, Dad’s Army was timeless. Arthur Lowe played the officious Captain Mainwaring to perfection while John le Mesurier was a gret straight man (with an occasional barb).

  30. [Starting with your ridiculous assertion that Howard wasn’t responsible for the dreadful economic record of the Fraser government. He was treasurer for goodness sake !!]

    The PM is in the drivers seat and the PM takes the credit for the good times and the Treasurer for the bad.

    Howard did have and later supported the same policies of Mr Keating. Mr Fraser would never support his policy ideas to free up our economy which was stuck in a ‘1950s’ thinking world.

    Sure Howard has to have some blame for the economic record of Mr Fraser but Mr Fraser was the PM and Mr Fraser had stupid economic policies.

    It was not a list of preferred civil conversationalists just those who comment to others and don’t call them teacup or petal or cupcake et al like Frank and David. But if you’d like to be off that list it can be done.

  34. I thought GG was referring to the Cumaean Sybil who was condemned to eternal life. When asked what she wanted, she replied;

    [I wish to die.]

  35. [BK

    So, that’s two egg mayonnaise, a prawn Goebbels, a Hermann Goering, and four Colditz salads]
    Glen
    Don’t get me started on Fawlty Towers quotes – we be going all night!

  36. BK,

    [scorps
    Yes, Dad’s Army was timeless. ]

    In some ways, it was probably a reasonably accurate reflection of the British social strata and system (overdone of course) which made it so cuttingly funny.

  37. Drake actually I didn’t say that.

    I said Howard was not entirely at fault for the economic conditions Australia suffered under Mr Fraser’s Govt. I never said he should shoulder no blame just not all of it as others suggest.

  40. [But if you’d like to be off that list it can be done.]

    No. no. I was only joking.

    But I won’t accept that Howard wasn’t responsible for the economic management of the Fraser government.

    Keating puts it beyond doubt here:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roIeVEf5alk

    By far my favourite performance from my favourite politician.

  43. Drake

    Just seeing PJK in full flight really does show up our current crop of leaders and their inability to speak with any gravitas as pollies like Keating.

  44. BK,

    Cheers – have set as my desktop. He was a funny old bugger the Major – reminded me a bit of my Grandfather.

    GG,

    🙁

  45. So Miranda Devine says that the intolerant bigots abusing her for expressing an opinion should read her column

    In philosophy, I believe that’s called a performative contradiction (I maybe wrong)

  49. spur,

    I know hating Devine from the outset saves time on thinking and considering her opinions. However, those who practice such philosophy have the whole “Talking out of your arse” factor to combat.

  50. Do you think Miranda Devine actually believes in what she writes?

    Nobody who is at least capable of stringing a sentence together could be that twisted, surely?

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