Morgan: 56.5-43.5 or 53.5-46.5 or 57-43 or 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has released two sets of poll results simultaneously, by way of confusing the hell out of everybody who doesn’t pay more attention than they ought to. One combines the results of the last two weekends’ face-to-face polling; the other is a phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday nights from a big sample of 1006. Furthermore, Morgan as always publishes separate two-party results using both respondent-allocated preferences and preferences as directed at the previous election, and these continue the recent trend of being highly divergent.

For mine, the most significant of the resulting four sets of figures is the previous-election two-party measure from the phone poll, as this has been conducted with the same methodology and from a similar sample size as Newspoll. Unfortunately, this particular result does not make sense to me. Whereas the primary vote figures are slightly better for the Coalition than this week’s Newspoll – 49 per cent against 29.5 per cent for Labor and 12 per cent for the Greens, compared with 47 per cent, 29 per cent and 12 per cent – the previous-election two-party result is a fair bit worse: 54.5-45.5 compared with Newspoll’s 56-44. Applying the preference flows from the previous election (with 79 per cent of Greens preferences and 42 per cent of all other minor party and independent preferences going to Labor) produces a result of 57-43. That, as it happens, is the result Morgan has listed for its respondent-allocated measure – which is not to suggest they have run them the wrong way around.

The phone poll also comes with attitudinal questions, finding global warming scepticism at a plateau of 37 per cent after a steady increase over the previous three years; opinions on the carbon tax more or less unchanged since a month ago with support at 38 per cent and opposition at 58 per cent; and support for the Coalition’s policy of overturning the carbon tax down three points to 45 per cent with opposition up three to 48 per cent. There is also a flawed question on asylum seekers which invites respondents to choose between allowing boat arrivals to apply for immigration or subjecting them to the Malaysia solution, with no further options available. This finds 52 per cent appearing to support the Malaysia solution, contrary to last week’s Essential Research, but this is almost certainly because it’s the “tougher” of the only two alternatives presented.

The face-to-face poll shows essentially no change on the previous published result from the weekends of July 16-17 and July 23-24. Labor’s primary vote is steady on a relatively healthy 34.5 per cent, the Coalition is up half a point to 47.5 per cent and the Greens are steady on 12 per cent. The respondent-allocated two-party result is unchanged on 56.5-43.5, while the previous-election result is up from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5. This time, the latter figure is exactly where I would expect it to be.

In other news, draft federal boundaries for South Australia were published today: see the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,111 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 or 53.5-46.5 or 57-43 or 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

Comments Page 38 of 43
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  2. I just realised Parliament resumes tomorrow – that means the return of the dreaded Abbott Censure Motion.

  3. [frankscan65Frank Calabrese

    @

    @mirandadevine Pot Meet Kettle – You are a first class Hypocrite.]

    Nice to see Ms Devine being treated to a performance of Frank’s Greatest Hits.

  8. [William Bowe

    Posted Sunday, August 14, 2011 at 7:55 pm | Permalink

    frankscan65Frank Calabrese

    @

    @mirandadevine Pot Meet Kettle – You are a first class Hypocrite.

    Nice to see Ms Devine being treated to a performance of Frank’s Greatest Hits.
    ]

    What more needed to be said 🙂

  9. [@mirandadevine Pot Meet Kettle – You are a first class Hypocrite.]

    Damn it Frank! I thought that you reserved that epithet for us fellow Pbers!

  12. [Scarpat

    Posted Sunday, August 14, 2011 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

    @mirandadevine Pot Meet Kettle – You are a first class Hypocrite.

    Damn it Frank! I thought that you reserved that epithet for us fellow Pbers!
    ]

    Here it is duplictious Kitchen Jugglers.

  13. victoria,

    You might have to call support. If you have data make sure you do a back up. If you dont, try installing the new version not an upgrade. if that fails you might need to ring support to help them take you up to a version your upgrade will launch from.

  20. confessions

    Is this Sophie?

    [FitToPrint Appalled at the hate speech, bile & repulsive comments directed to @mirandadevine for expressing an opinion. #SoMuchForFreeSpeech
    about 1 hour ago]

  21. My tip for this years Nobel Peace Prize and her second, Burmese icon Aung San Suu Kyi. She has defied the Generals and gone into the countryside to talk to her people…the world will not allow another period of House arrest surely. I hope and pray for her safety..I admire this woman so much. She makes the spine tingle to hear her speak, what a woman, what a person. She stands along side Mother Teresa and Mandela as an inspiration against the war mongers, tyrants and purveyors of evil in this world.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-08-14/suu-kyi-calls-for-unity-on-political-trip/2838794

  23. victoria,

    If I remember correctly there was a big change after 6. So it is likely you will have to do a stepped upgrade.

  26. [1821
    ShowsOn

    Well it is annoying that I am meant to dwell on what he got wrong, instead of emphasising what he got right.]

    What is also interesting is the reaction people had to Marx. The 19th century was a period of very rapid economic and social change that provoked a wide variety of responses – intellectual, artistic, ethical and political to name just some. For the most part, people reacted conservatively – making incremental changes to laws and institutions, trying to preserve order and – as they saw it – trying to temper change with a sense of fairness.

    It was really only in the context of the profound destruction wrought by the Great War and the internal collapse of the Tsarist regime that Marx’s ideas about history and economics were able to be grafted onto the revolutionary demands and strategies of the Bolsheviks.

    That war destroyed the very legitimacy of imperialist institutions and aristocratic rule across all of Europe. The seizure of power by the Bolsheviks was absolutely incomprehensible in a way, and yet showed that in times of great economic and social upheaval, sometimes people will abandon everything they have known for the sake of simple promises – in 1917, they were willing to take “Peace, Bread, Land”. Marx may have been the intellectual designer of class war, but this revolution had very little to do with dialectical materialism and everything to do with hunger and poverty.

    In Paris in 1789, people demanded “Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite!” and were rewarded with bloody terror, all stemming from crop failure, food riots and a prolonged political stand-off between the crown, the clerics and the aristocracy.

    None of these great events could have been forecast in advance. Once events got going, they developed a life of their own. There is something in this for Americans and Europeans today: their institutions are not responding effectively to the economic and political pressures to which they are subject. They are not yet at the point of paralysis, but some days recently they looked like they COULD become self-disabling, at which point the economic and political order would inevitably implode. Who knows what would follow from a failure of the European financial system? One thing we can say is we do not really know.

  27. Devine craps on a lot about “traditional marriage” in that article.

    Surely she should understand that if you want to get really traditional, women were considered the man’s property, and around that some time some men were the property of other men too.

    Marriage as we know it now is somewhat less than traditional, which proves it is an institution that has changed over time, and will keep on changing in the future.

  29. david

    I have a friend who actually lived for a few years with Mother Teresa and her ministry. She said that Mother Teresa above all else was single minded in her mission.

  32. SK

    we have tried again.

    Now says

    “quickbooks has problem in reading this registration file. You need to ask your systems administrator to remove this file and reinstall quickbooks”

  35. [women will one day play AFL and NRL football with the men]

    Pretty sure this is a typo?

    The men already play NRL and the women already play AFL 😀

  39. [Gary Sparrow

    Posted Sunday, August 14, 2011 at 8:23 pm | Permalink

    What would Poll Bludger be without Frank?

    A much more civil discourse would be the direct result.
    ]

    Cupcake,

    speak for yourself.

    At leasdt I don’t need to hide behind a fictional character to feel releant.

  41. [Gary Sparrow
    Posted Sunday, August 14, 2011 at 8:23 pm | Permalink

    What would Poll Bludger be without Frank?

    A much more civil discourse would be the direct result.]

    hey cup cake noone is begging you to come on board, like it or lump it petal

  43. [hey cup cake noone is begging you to come on board, like it or lump it petal]

    David and Frank prove my point beyond a reasonable doubt.

    [Cupcake,

    speak for yourself.

    At leasdt I don’t need to hide behind a fictional character to feel releant.]

  49. BK @ 1878 and Shows:

    +1

    Don’t get me started on how female sexuality has been depicted as passive and subservient to mens’ 🙁 In fact, female desire is pretty much an afterthought in ‘traditional’ marriage. I wonder if Miranda would really fancy the notion of laying back and merely being the vehicle for producing male heirs.

  50. [Gary Sparrow
    Posted Sunday, August 14, 2011 at 8:28 pm | Permalink

    hey cup cake noone is begging you to come on board, like it or lump it petal

    David and Frank prove my point beyond a reasonable doubt.]

    :kiss: :kiss:

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