Morgan: 56.5-43.5 or 53.5-46.5 or 57-43 or 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has released two sets of poll results simultaneously, by way of confusing the hell out of everybody who doesn’t pay more attention than they ought to. One combines the results of the last two weekends’ face-to-face polling; the other is a phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday nights from a big sample of 1006. Furthermore, Morgan as always publishes separate two-party results using both respondent-allocated preferences and preferences as directed at the previous election, and these continue the recent trend of being highly divergent.

For mine, the most significant of the resulting four sets of figures is the previous-election two-party measure from the phone poll, as this has been conducted with the same methodology and from a similar sample size as Newspoll. Unfortunately, this particular result does not make sense to me. Whereas the primary vote figures are slightly better for the Coalition than this week’s Newspoll – 49 per cent against 29.5 per cent for Labor and 12 per cent for the Greens, compared with 47 per cent, 29 per cent and 12 per cent – the previous-election two-party result is a fair bit worse: 54.5-45.5 compared with Newspoll’s 56-44. Applying the preference flows from the previous election (with 79 per cent of Greens preferences and 42 per cent of all other minor party and independent preferences going to Labor) produces a result of 57-43. That, as it happens, is the result Morgan has listed for its respondent-allocated measure – which is not to suggest they have run them the wrong way around.

The phone poll also comes with attitudinal questions, finding global warming scepticism at a plateau of 37 per cent after a steady increase over the previous three years; opinions on the carbon tax more or less unchanged since a month ago with support at 38 per cent and opposition at 58 per cent; and support for the Coalition’s policy of overturning the carbon tax down three points to 45 per cent with opposition up three to 48 per cent. There is also a flawed question on asylum seekers which invites respondents to choose between allowing boat arrivals to apply for immigration or subjecting them to the Malaysia solution, with no further options available. This finds 52 per cent appearing to support the Malaysia solution, contrary to last week’s Essential Research, but this is almost certainly because it’s the “tougher” of the only two alternatives presented.

The face-to-face poll shows essentially no change on the previous published result from the weekends of July 16-17 and July 23-24. Labor’s primary vote is steady on a relatively healthy 34.5 per cent, the Coalition is up half a point to 47.5 per cent and the Greens are steady on 12 per cent. The respondent-allocated two-party result is unchanged on 56.5-43.5, while the previous-election result is up from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5. This time, the latter figure is exactly where I would expect it to be.

In other news, draft federal boundaries for South Australia were published today: see the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,111 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 or 53.5-46.5 or 57-43 or 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  1. my fries with chicken salt

    Does Morgan believe it when he says:

    “What the Gillard Government should be concerned about is that the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has dropped to it’s lowest ever level of 94.5”?

  2. [Gussy I’m saving myself a banquet when another 61/39 AC Nielsen comes out πŸ˜† probably no chance but hey.]
    It’ll be 18 months before the Govt gets to 61, Glen. Can you hold the banquet until then? πŸ™‚

  3. i will have the 53/46 that one will do, 5 for error may be about 6 points
    which i wondered about last week. re news poll that about right.

    well we’ll take the high road and he took the low road and we will
    be in scotland before, ye

    actully chips on the menu tonight, lazy on fridays,

  4. Not a mention – as far as I can see – in any of the on line web sites (except the ABC) of the $70 billion nuking of government services.

  5. Nappin is there a bloggers guide for dummies..what buttons do I press to get the quoted bit like you have in your blog?
    Thanks in advance.

  6. Bh i took the liberty of putting a bit here from ad astra as this has been my beliefe for some time its called brainwashing

    [The thrust of this piece is that the media, particularly some sections of it, does set out to create public opinion, certainly to profoundly influence it, rather than simply reflect it as any proficient media outlet ought to do. Some do this in pursuit of a commercial agenda – to sell newspapers and attract viewers and listeners – but others have another deliberate agenda: to have their audiences embrace ]

  7. [Nappin is there a bloggers guide for dummies..what buttons do I press to get the quoted bit like you have in your blog?]
    Square brackets (on your keyboard) give the quotes. Tricks are – (1) don’t write anything else on that line and (2) you can preview to check it’s working (common error is to type} instead of ] and it does not work.

    The following site gives you the codes for the smilies http://codex.wordpress.org/Using_Smilies

  8. [what buttons do I press to get the quoted bit like you have in your blog]

    surround required quote – copied by mouse-draggin, by a [ and a ]

  9. [the $70 billion nuking of government services.]
    Cough, cough … Actually, Bushfire, the OO came close, stating that the Coalition would shut down whole Departments.

  10. ah william you see i suggested we have a tutorial on the site.

    run mouse over what you want to copy left click you see copy point arrow, scroll down to your comment area right click you see paste click on by pointing the arrow at paste

    you can also do it sometimes by pressing ctrl and ‘c’ which will flash on the right had of screen with numbers this has also gone to your email area so you can copy it there.
    note book or something thats it called. gee senior moment.

  11. Nappin,

    [Square brackets (on your keyboard) give the quotes. Tricks are – (1) don’t write anything else on that line and (2) you can preview to check it’s working (common error is to type} instead of ] and it does not work.]

    Many thanks

  12. There are justt too many results in this Morgan Poll and it’s giving me a headache. Do you think Bill could just post a weighted average for us?

  13. [run mouse over what you want to copy left click you see copy point arrow, scroll down to your comment area right click you see paste click on by pointing the arrow at paste

    you can also do it sometimes by pressing ctrl and β€˜c’ which will flash on the right had of screen with numbers this has also gone to your email area so you can copy it there.
    note book or something thats it called. gee senior moment.]

    my say

    do you write instruction manuals for chinese elctrical goods?

  14. [gus
    POETS day is for everyone.
    Even Kelly.]
    Sometimes I want to respond to some discussions with just the first two letters….. But with all my strength, I resist….. πŸ˜‰

  15. [big sample of 1006]
    How much to upsize that to large? That’s worse than the dam OZTam polling.
    I know samples of over 200 are supposed to be alright, but in this case those pesky 1% changes mean 10 people (ignoring preferences), that everyone gets worked up about.
    I know I’m only a simple mathematician working as a statistician, someone tell me I’m not crazy?

  16. i printed them out so they sit next to me problem is i should of increased the size of the print rather hard to read. πŸ˜‰

  17. [finding global warming scepticism at a plateau of 37 per cent after a steady increase over the previous three years;]
    That’s still alot of people who don’t want to understand the facts. I shakes me head.

  18. gus even if you where not its still funny

    i was sitting here thinking i will ask one of the boys to give good directions for sewing a zip πŸ™

  19. gus
    PvO has the Essential guy plus Troy Bramston and Rhys Muldoon on today and he has his hands full. They are all going in strong for the MRRT, NBN, disability insurance and in particular the Libs’ $70b problem.
    They’ve gone a bit feral on him.

  20. Gregg Hunt also moving into the finance debate, obviously another Lib with eyes on Hockey’s job…he has been tweeting numbers all week, under the guise of environment.

    [Opposition Environment Spokesman Greg Hunt says there would be no net cost to the budget from scrapping the carbon tax because the figure is based on how much revenue the tax would raise.

    And he says that would be offset because the Coalition is scrapping the carbon tax compensation.

    “Well actually there’s zero cost to the budget of scrapping the carbon tax because, as has been known for 18 months, we’ll neither tax nor spend. So there’s zero cost to the budget,” he said.]

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