Morgan: 56.5-43.5 or 53.5-46.5 or 57-43 or 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has released two sets of poll results simultaneously, by way of confusing the hell out of everybody who doesn’t pay more attention than they ought to. One combines the results of the last two weekends’ face-to-face polling; the other is a phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday nights from a big sample of 1006. Furthermore, Morgan as always publishes separate two-party results using both respondent-allocated preferences and preferences as directed at the previous election, and these continue the recent trend of being highly divergent.

For mine, the most significant of the resulting four sets of figures is the previous-election two-party measure from the phone poll, as this has been conducted with the same methodology and from a similar sample size as Newspoll. Unfortunately, this particular result does not make sense to me. Whereas the primary vote figures are slightly better for the Coalition than this week’s Newspoll – 49 per cent against 29.5 per cent for Labor and 12 per cent for the Greens, compared with 47 per cent, 29 per cent and 12 per cent – the previous-election two-party result is a fair bit worse: 54.5-45.5 compared with Newspoll’s 56-44. Applying the preference flows from the previous election (with 79 per cent of Greens preferences and 42 per cent of all other minor party and independent preferences going to Labor) produces a result of 57-43. That, as it happens, is the result Morgan has listed for its respondent-allocated measure – which is not to suggest they have run them the wrong way around.

The phone poll also comes with attitudinal questions, finding global warming scepticism at a plateau of 37 per cent after a steady increase over the previous three years; opinions on the carbon tax more or less unchanged since a month ago with support at 38 per cent and opposition at 58 per cent; and support for the Coalition’s policy of overturning the carbon tax down three points to 45 per cent with opposition up three to 48 per cent. There is also a flawed question on asylum seekers which invites respondents to choose between allowing boat arrivals to apply for immigration or subjecting them to the Malaysia solution, with no further options available. This finds 52 per cent appearing to support the Malaysia solution, contrary to last week’s Essential Research, but this is almost certainly because it’s the “tougher” of the only two alternatives presented.

The face-to-face poll shows essentially no change on the previous published result from the weekends of July 16-17 and July 23-24. Labor’s primary vote is steady on a relatively healthy 34.5 per cent, the Coalition is up half a point to 47.5 per cent and the Greens are steady on 12 per cent. The respondent-allocated two-party result is unchanged on 56.5-43.5, while the previous-election result is up from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5. This time, the latter figure is exactly where I would expect it to be.

In other news, draft federal boundaries for South Australia were published today: see the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,111 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 or 53.5-46.5 or 57-43 or 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  1. How many times have bludgers mentioned the $70 billion ‘problem’ that the Libs have? Why did it take Ch7 of all outlets to make it news?

  2. David, somewhat interestingly, after the sharing of love, AJ threw a lit cigarette Tony’s way about coal mining prime farming land.

    Tony’s extinguished it, seemingly, by repealing the law as to compulsory acquisition of property.

  4. [“Well actually there’s zero cost to the budget of scrapping the carbon tax because, as has been known for 18 months, we’ll neither tax nor spend. So there’s zero cost to the budget,” he said.]
    But there would be substantial net hardship borne by the public as a result of prices not dropping.

  5. [Tony’s extinguished it, seemingly, by repealing the law as to compulsory acquisition of property]
    Three words – High Court Challenge

  6. Gerry, it’s large by the standards of Morgan phone polling. They often do only 500 or 600. Yes, 10 people make a 1 per cent difference with that sample – but you could double that and say the same thing about 20 people, and *nobody* bothers to use a sample that big. The moral of the story is to not pay much attention to one or two point fluctuations in individual polls, but to instead look at the trend of all polls taken together.

  7. [“Well actually there’s zero cost to the budget of scrapping the carbon tax because, as has been known for 18 months, we’ll neither tax nor spend. So there’s zero cost to the budget,” he said.]

    Sorry Hunty me ol’ mate. How much to buy back the permits people have paid for?

  8. well better go and do the morgan chips then,

    i havent turned the heating on here and is dam cold in this room we are installing new heating next week it should cost half of what this one does.
    we have ceiling heating, which until recently was economic but not now.

    do you have it on the mainland you warm the outside air and feed it through a heating system on the roof and it comes in as warm air. its only about 11 cents per k. hours.

  9. [The moral of the story is to not pay much attention to one or two point fluctuations in individual polls, but to instead look at the trend of all polls taken together.]

    Which leaves us, roughly, where ? 56-44 ?

  10. [53 gusface
    Posted Friday, August 12, 2011 at 4:50 pm | Permalink
    my say
    steady

    alls fair in love and war,, and PB]

    gee what did i say.

  13. There would have to be projects in solar etc which would be funded by the carbon tax which couldn’t be scrapped, so there would be a cost if it was dumped.

  14. drake that’s pretty much where we have been for a while apart from one or two outliers like the 61/30 Nielsen Poll. We seem to be locked-in around that level for now.

  17. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-08-12/abbott27s-razor-gang-makes-no-apologies/2836876

    Nice point made here by Public Sector Union.

    [Meanwhile, the Community and Public Sector Union’s Nadine Flood says it is offensive for Mr Abbot to suggest cutting thousands of public sector jobs will not affect the quality of services.
    “The Coalition is strident in their calls for no jobs to be lost due to a carbon tax but is quite happy to threaten thousands of public servants with the axe just to score a cheap political point,” she said.
    “If someone suggested slashing 1,000 jobs in Joe Hockey’s electorate he’d be up in arms, but apparently if they’re public sector jobs they don’t count.”]

  18. [“Well actually there’s zero cost to the budget of scrapping the carbon tax because, as has been known for 18 months, we’ll neither tax nor spend. So there’s zero cost to the budget,” he said.]

    Yeah, OK… so WHY did he claim canning the NBN was a $47 billion SAVING? And then why did he get narky when journos pointed that out to him (not that it was even reported that he did)?

    This man is either completely dopey on economics, or he’s a bullshit artist.

    Or both.

  19. drake so you add them up and and divided which ones by how much, just the morgan ones or the others as well

    i still have the the best one. 47/53

    RU we are the news, remember the lady that the papers ect said would be deported
    wtte, well the abc was still running that for hours after the minister said wtte nothing of the sort, so i decided to ring them well they said thats done in Sydney not Canberra i said will why doesnt some on in Canberra tell them i watched the screen and in minutes it changed. see we know everything even before the abc. people can read he for nothing

  22. i would say we are actully clawing back to where we where before the Pollution tax
    announcement, I notice a whole page add to day from the na sayers. a hairdressing salon this time.

    i have in mind to emaill them and say, well i plan to only deal with outlets that are happy with the pollution tax, for example i know my hairdressing salon is fine with it.
    why would a hairdresser be worried about it

    evey one is being compensated and with a higher pension one could may be afford to have ones hair done more often.

  23. Gillard, with Abbott on leave has had two weeks of “clean air” that was “required” to get the message out. The result after two week?.. nada, zip, zero change in the polls. The people may not be angry but they sure dont care about the Gillard tune being played at the moment.

    Oh and the $70B black hole means a lot of Green waste programs will be culled in the first round of an Abbott Gov, and not before time too.

  25. but i didnt take offence at any thing, do you mean the zip thing i was joking Gus.

    i meant i am a dill at IT but then could the boys put in a zip

    i wasnt serious. is it the tasmanian humour i get the feeling lizzie often thinks i am serious.

    also sometimes i may say ” for example who s he or who’s she, and you all come back very nicely and tell me the name, well what i am really saying
    who are they , it a way of saying who cares any way..

    if we think some one is above them selves here in tas, we say, ” whos she or he when they are at home” any way.

  27. I had to laugh, I got one of my local newsletters today, which proudly proclaimed the Gold Coast was going to put a case to have the NBN installation pushed forward here for various reasons.

    I had a quite chuckle to myself. Gold Coast is wall to wall liberal reps! 😈 😆

  28. [Oh and the $70B black hole means a lot of Green waste programs will be culled in the first round of an Abbott Gov, and not before time too.]

    We have special bins for our green waste but I’m not the gardening type.

  31. [I had a quite chuckle to myself. Gold Coast is wall to wall liberal reps! ]

    sk thats so funny i hope you let them know also this would be great for question time for MR. Combet

  32. A poster said i should visit the greens web site a read a few policies. Well i went back for another read and had a good laugh. The greens are well and truly the make a wish party! I give them credit for aiming high but they will deliver less then Gillard and Rudd put together with that wish list.

    Now to give the PM some credit, she has been getting a few runs on the board in the delivery stakes.

  33. [There would have to be projects in solar etc which would ]
    yes they could take them to court, to re coup their loses,. the liberals never think further than their arm pit

  34. We are southside inner brisbane and getting the nbn now as they are doing something to the local exchange so need to upgrade. Being achieved with minimal fuss and siruption as far as I can tell.

  35. [Brisbani Stan
    Posted Friday, August 12, 2011 at 5:07 pm | Permalink
    Wonder if the National Disability Insurance Scheme will prove to have electoral appeal?]

    the editorial in the Hobart mercury was singing its praises also the new policy for the aged, but i haven’t see a lot about it. they remarked that older people will be able to stay in their own homes easier now, not sure what they have in mind though.

  36. Thanks William – I carry around a big bugbear about small sampling on a daily basis 😉
    Assuming that the sampling is ok, then the average would be a better guide, yep for sure. If I had the motivation, I’d crap on about the standard error of a binary choice sample of that size, but it’s friday! And I’m probably wrong!

    Cheers for the explanation!

  38. [Now to give the PM some credit, she has been getting a few runs on the board in the delivery stakes.]

    Well if rummy has noticed everyone else has too. 🙂

  39. Funnily enough its an old image & when I changed my gravatar to join this conversation the new image did not appear – balloons it is – hot air & fun seemed appropriate

  42. [If I had the motivation, I’d crap on about the standard error of a binary choice sample of that size, but it’s friday!]

    No, please do. This is supposedly a psephology blog, and it could use quite a lot more of that kind of thing.

  43. advance warning

    [hamishNews Tonight on #630negus our guest is Opposition Immigration Spokesman Scott Morrison
    35 minutes ago]

  45. The hearts of Labor folk should be warmed by Gary Morgan’s assertion that “52% OF AUSTRALIANS SUPPORT THE ‘MALAYSIAN SOLUTION’”. You would in fact measure that by asking Australians, “do you support the Malaysian solution?” – which is not what Morgan has done. Essential Research did though, and it only came in at 31 per cent.

  46. [Then there is the cost of the ridiculous Direct Action (CRAP).]

    Without a Govt Dept to suggest winners, I guess it will be up to Mr Truss.

  47. [evey one is being compensated and with a higher pension one could may be afford to have ones hair done more often.]

    My Say,

    Not every one is being comepensated, and a lot more will break even. And the higher pension is for paying higher electricity bills rather than new coiffures. Though in Tassie most if not all of your power comes from renewables now so maybe your bills won’t go up much, or at all.

    I can see your point about why would the hairdresser care about the carbon tax?

  48. my say

    With your newfound ability to do emoticons, perhaps you could make sure we all know you’re joking by adding a wink. 😉 It adds a little spice to posts, I find 🙂

  49. This is the Morgan question

    [‘Should asylum seekers arriving by boat be allowed to apply for immigration, or should they be sent to Malaysia and told to apply through normal refugee channels?’]

    It is “tougher” than the ER question. The “Malaysian Solution” includes the 5:1 swap in addition to the above.

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