Morgan: 56.5-43.5 or 53.5-46.5 or 57-43 or 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has released two sets of poll results simultaneously, by way of confusing the hell out of everybody who doesn’t pay more attention than they ought to. One combines the results of the last two weekends’ face-to-face polling; the other is a phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday nights from a big sample of 1006. Furthermore, Morgan as always publishes separate two-party results using both respondent-allocated preferences and preferences as directed at the previous election, and these continue the recent trend of being highly divergent.

For mine, the most significant of the resulting four sets of figures is the previous-election two-party measure from the phone poll, as this has been conducted with the same methodology and from a similar sample size as Newspoll. Unfortunately, this particular result does not make sense to me. Whereas the primary vote figures are slightly better for the Coalition than this week’s Newspoll – 49 per cent against 29.5 per cent for Labor and 12 per cent for the Greens, compared with 47 per cent, 29 per cent and 12 per cent – the previous-election two-party result is a fair bit worse: 54.5-45.5 compared with Newspoll’s 56-44. Applying the preference flows from the previous election (with 79 per cent of Greens preferences and 42 per cent of all other minor party and independent preferences going to Labor) produces a result of 57-43. That, as it happens, is the result Morgan has listed for its respondent-allocated measure – which is not to suggest they have run them the wrong way around.

The phone poll also comes with attitudinal questions, finding global warming scepticism at a plateau of 37 per cent after a steady increase over the previous three years; opinions on the carbon tax more or less unchanged since a month ago with support at 38 per cent and opposition at 58 per cent; and support for the Coalition’s policy of overturning the carbon tax down three points to 45 per cent with opposition up three to 48 per cent. There is also a flawed question on asylum seekers which invites respondents to choose between allowing boat arrivals to apply for immigration or subjecting them to the Malaysia solution, with no further options available. This finds 52 per cent appearing to support the Malaysia solution, contrary to last week’s Essential Research, but this is almost certainly because it’s the “tougher” of the only two alternatives presented.

The face-to-face poll shows essentially no change on the previous published result from the weekends of July 16-17 and July 23-24. Labor’s primary vote is steady on a relatively healthy 34.5 per cent, the Coalition is up half a point to 47.5 per cent and the Greens are steady on 12 per cent. The respondent-allocated two-party result is unchanged on 56.5-43.5, while the previous-election result is up from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5. This time, the latter figure is exactly where I would expect it to be.

In other news, draft federal boundaries for South Australia were published today: see the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,111 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 or 53.5-46.5 or 57-43 or 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 43
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  1. [ChrisOgilvieSnr Cabinet will discuss whether or not to hold a media inquiry as early as Monday next week our Media Personality’s will CRY “FREE SPEECH!”
    about 1 hour ago]

  4. Gusface, the Morgan poll contrives to find greater support for the Malaysia solution than actually exists, and extracts a 54.5-45.5 result which on my reading ought to be 57-43. It’s often suggested here that pollsters rig the game against the government, so how about some credit where it’s due?

  5. gusface

    We will see what cabinet decide. Meanwhile gaffhook posted some interesting information coming from The UK. The MP Tom Watson says he has “dynamite information” regarding the hacking scandal.

  7. When it comes to AS and boat people, no matter what the poll is, there certainly seems a fair bit of hate against them by the Australian people. Frankly, I do not know how we will ever change this.

  8. [I can see your point about why would the hairdresser care about the carbon tax?
    ]

    well i have looked at the chart and yes thats true but then people who have a lot of money dont care what their hair costs are, silly for a hairdresser to put clients off side when i was in business i never said anything about whose side i was on, unless i new the person you can lose business that way.

    but in my mind a pensioner even on part pension with super will have more money and you know you dont buy everything on this earth so you will be in front, you dont have to buy services and food will be a very small component, i am at lose really to think what would be of great expense to us, heating may be, we are changing our heating and we do get a discount, our daughter has put in the system i mentioned today and has halved her heating bills from last winter 31 sq house and 2 and 3/4 children hubby of course, so i am still trying to think how the pollution tax will come in to play in our life, travel may be,

    i love one of you to list a couple of things, seriously its a good discussion

  10. [57-43. It’s often suggested here that pollsters rig the game against the government, so how about some credit where it’s due?]

    gee i picked it .. yes you are spot on william Mr morgan has done us proud this week.
    may be abbott away did give people the same feeling a lot of us had of peace and goodwil to all men.

  12. [We will see what cabinet decide. Meanwhile gaffhook posted some interesting information coming from The UK. The MP Tom Watson says he has “dynamite information” regarding the hacking scandal.]

    victoria was that, what BH was meaning hours ago or is this new.

    wow
    😉

  15. 3099
    Gaffhook
    Posted Friday, August 12, 2011 at 10:49 am | Permalink
    I am trying hard not to gloat but anyway my Friday morning has now been uplifted somewhat.

    Tom Watson, the U.K. lawmaker who has pursued an investigation of Rupert Murdoch’s News of the World newspaper for two years, said documents on hacking submitted to Parliament’s Culture Committee were “dynamite.”

    Murdoch’s son James was among those who had until yesterday to supply written answers to questions from the committee following their testimony last month about phone hacking at the now-defunct tabloid.

    After that session, former News of the World editor Colin Myler and the paper’s lawyer Tom Crone issued a statement saying James Murdoch had been “mistaken” in aspects of it. Jonathan Chapman, a former lawyer for the paper’s publisher, News Corp.’s News International, complained of “serious inaccuracies” about his own role, and Harbottle & Lewis LLP, a law firm that has worked for the newspaper, asked for privilege to be waived so that it too could respond. All were asked to supply written evidence to the committee by yesterday.

    “Reading documents related to hacking that I’m not allowed to reveal,” Watson said yesterday in a Twitter Inc. message that was confirmed by Bloomberg News. “They’re dynamite though.”

    Watson didn’t provide further details on the nature of the documents.

    Referring to journalists who may ask to see the documents, Watson added: “And no point in journos asking for them. Parliament’s rules prohibit me from doing so until my committee considers them next Tuesday. We can decide to publish then. I’m voting yes!”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-11/u-k-lawmaker-tom-watson-says-documents-on-phone-hacking-are-dynamite-.html

  18. its called reverse cyle blackspur, you bring the cold air in and warm air if there is any it goes through a series of pipes on roof and is pumped in to the house as warm air, the thermostat heats it to what you have set it at. oure is a 8 kil and it will warm 12.8 kitchen half of that size for the dining room, and them 15 by 9 lounge. something in that area any way and if we close off the sliding door of an evening we can may be turn it down to 17 degrees, then during the day open up the other side of the house and close the door to the lounge and do the same. our daughter had ceiling heating like we have, and she put in the new system in june and has halved her heating bill from last year.

  19. My Say

    Hairdressers are quite large consumers of electricity – blow drying hair – They usually have washing machines and dryers too.

    The suburban outlets that will be most affected are bakeries, pizza shops, hairdressers, laundromats, fruit and vege stores with large cold rooms, plus anyone using air-conditioning and heating and anyone in shops with few windows so that they have large lighting needs, clubs, bars, sports centres with outdoor lighting. – BUT maybe NOT in Tassie

  20. [which on my reading ought to be 57-43

    Glen…?]
    He’s taking it with fries. drake. He’s waiting for 61 though (personally I think it’ll be a while before the Govt hits 61… 👿 )

  21. [2 minutes ago
    »
    Mike Bowers
    mpbowers Mike Bowers
    Insiders ABC 1 & NEWS 24 9am Sunday-The panel The SMH’s David Marr, News.com.au’s Malcolm Farr and the Telegraph’s Piers Akerman #insiders
    ]

    Bill Shorten is the guest.

  24. thank you victoria, will comment after tea, no heating on here i did on purpose so i dont hang around done so much the last coupel of days and if the poll get better i will be in seventh heaven and free from worry

  29. [Bronnie saying “with the carbon tax, people are finding they have less income.”]

    but it has not gone through the parliement yet. i just shaking my head,

    and who are these people

  32. [@mpbowers Mike Bowers
    I do hope that Peirs and David share the couch #farrforthesinglechair
    5 minutes ago via web Favorite Retweet Reply
    replies ?
    »
    jon kudelka
    jonkudelka jon kudelka
    @
    @mpbowers It will be TV’s funniest ever punch-up when it finally happens.
    ]

  33. What a horrible dowager Bronnie has become.
    Illegitimate government!!
    What would it have been if Abbott has bought off the indies?

  37. Yes I love a good Piers vs Marr rumble in the jungle.

    But they never have them sitting together and always have Piers sitting alone on the single chair.

    We can look forward to such sayings as…. 😆

    “But Barry, But Barry”

    “Look Barry, Look Barry”

  38. [Oh and the $70B black hole means a lot of Green waste programs will be culled in the first round of an Abbott Gov, and not before time too.]

    Rummy..I also heard that those other waste programs…pensions,education and health will also be culled in the process but don’t worry none of those mnimng taxes for suffering billionaires or the 150K battlers will be affected.

  43. News Ltd running story a prospective Cairns State LNP MP has said in an email, then denies it, but….

    Gillard & Brown most evil people ever had in power. “We can only hope that she follows the history of JFK.” http://is.gd/IK8P5Z

  50. My Say

    I hope you enjoy your new heating system, less cost = less consumption which is always good. On the mainland, heating with electricity would be prohibitive.

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