Morgan: 56.5-43.5 or 53.5-46.5 or 57-43 or 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has released two sets of poll results simultaneously, by way of confusing the hell out of everybody who doesn’t pay more attention than they ought to. One combines the results of the last two weekends’ face-to-face polling; the other is a phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday nights from a big sample of 1006. Furthermore, Morgan as always publishes separate two-party results using both respondent-allocated preferences and preferences as directed at the previous election, and these continue the recent trend of being highly divergent.

For mine, the most significant of the resulting four sets of figures is the previous-election two-party measure from the phone poll, as this has been conducted with the same methodology and from a similar sample size as Newspoll. Unfortunately, this particular result does not make sense to me. Whereas the primary vote figures are slightly better for the Coalition than this week’s Newspoll – 49 per cent against 29.5 per cent for Labor and 12 per cent for the Greens, compared with 47 per cent, 29 per cent and 12 per cent – the previous-election two-party result is a fair bit worse: 54.5-45.5 compared with Newspoll’s 56-44. Applying the preference flows from the previous election (with 79 per cent of Greens preferences and 42 per cent of all other minor party and independent preferences going to Labor) produces a result of 57-43. That, as it happens, is the result Morgan has listed for its respondent-allocated measure – which is not to suggest they have run them the wrong way around.

The phone poll also comes with attitudinal questions, finding global warming scepticism at a plateau of 37 per cent after a steady increase over the previous three years; opinions on the carbon tax more or less unchanged since a month ago with support at 38 per cent and opposition at 58 per cent; and support for the Coalition’s policy of overturning the carbon tax down three points to 45 per cent with opposition up three to 48 per cent. There is also a flawed question on asylum seekers which invites respondents to choose between allowing boat arrivals to apply for immigration or subjecting them to the Malaysia solution, with no further options available. This finds 52 per cent appearing to support the Malaysia solution, contrary to last week’s Essential Research, but this is almost certainly because it’s the “tougher” of the only two alternatives presented.

The face-to-face poll shows essentially no change on the previous published result from the weekends of July 16-17 and July 23-24. Labor’s primary vote is steady on a relatively healthy 34.5 per cent, the Coalition is up half a point to 47.5 per cent and the Greens are steady on 12 per cent. The respondent-allocated two-party result is unchanged on 56.5-43.5, while the previous-election result is up from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5. This time, the latter figure is exactly where I would expect it to be.

In other news, draft federal boundaries for South Australia were published today: see the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,111 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 or 53.5-46.5 or 57-43 or 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  3. My say,

    [I was sitting here thinking i will ask one of the boys to give good directions for sewing a zip ]

    Wish you could sew one on Tone’s budgie smugglers while he was wearing them! 😉

  6. Arunta/victoria…the evil is indeed spreading, how a man who wishes to be an MP could make in an email, such an outlandishly dusgusting suggestion, says it all about the type of person the LNP is attracting as a candidate. His bad luck, he sent it to more than one person and they have the original content. So now denying he wrote JFK is somewhat limp.

  8. Bronwyn Bishop is definitely past her “best before” date. Just seems now to be hogging a safe Liberal seat when they are desperately in need of broadening the talent pool.

    Ditto for Philip Ruddock and Alby Schultz.

    It is always interesting that the NSW Libs seem to let these people just hang around (what did Alan Cadman achieve as a backbencher in a safe seat for 30+ years?) – the Vic Libs are much more ruthless in moving people on and getting talent into safe seats.

  17. [extensive research into muthas]

    [Its in their DNA.]

    In other words you are perpetuating a stereotype without any proof. See it’s not that hard to say 😆

  18. [I am with you. I have reverse cycle aircon. Don’t use it! At most I put on a cardie over my tshirt.]

    I have to stop wearing shorts for a couple of months. I still have all the great jackets from when I lived in Canberra. Should give them to vinnies.

  20. [Rummy..I also heard that those other waste programs…pensions,education and health will also be culled in the process but don’t worry none of those mnimng taxes for suffering billionaires or the 150K battlers will be affected.]

    yes im so glad we spent $B on school halls when the areas you mention could have used direct cash injection.

  22. [the Vic Libs are much more ruthless in moving people on and getting talent into safe seats.]

    When are they going to move Kevin Andrews on?

  23. rua,

    We have been in QLD for five years. Last year we got rid of all our Canberra and Adelaide heavy jackets. They were taking up too much room in the wardrobe and we never wear them anymore.

  24. Can anyone tell me why the ABS stats show electricity prices falling over the last qtr yet the Libs wally on about electricity price increases?

  26. I’m less concerned with the old farts hanging around as compared to the young farts like Mirrabella, Hunt and O’Dwyer who specialise in personal abuse and seem to ooze moral vacuity.

  29. [direct cash injection.]
    Is Direct cash injection the same as the won’t cost you a cent ‘direct action’ the neocons are sprouting

  30. Mirabella is another one from Victoria who should be let go. A talentless, do-nothing seat warmer whose contribution to policy and public discourse is zilch.

  31. Diogs and you know what happened the last time a Texas Governor ran for President = 8 years! 😆

    This guy is more of a happy clapper than George W Bush IMHO.

    Still hoping Time Pawlenty can made some headway.

  34. [Can anyone tell me why the ABS stats show electricity prices falling over the last qtr yet the Libs wally on about electricity price increases?]

    All the Labor supporters are sitting in the dark and freezing
    so that they can prove the Libs wrong?

  38. [All the Labor supporters are sitting in the dark and freezing
    so that they can prove the Libs wrong?]

    😆 😆 😆 GOLD 😀

  40. Space Kidette,

    [I had to laugh, I got one of my local newsletters today, which proudly proclaimed the Gold Coast was going to put a case to have the NBN installation pushed forward here for various reasons.

    I had a quite chuckle to myself. Gold Coast is wall to wall liberal reps! ]

    That’s nothing! The Mackay Mercury is running a petition to have Mackay prioritised in the installation of the NBN.

    This is a classic because it is the main centre for the Electorate of Dawson (LNP) and the newspaper is not exactly a high profile supporter of Labor.

  41. Glen

    It looks like Perry vs Romney to me. If Perry is in, Bachmann will lose a lot of her nutter support and wil be an also-ran.

    And as you say, Perry is actually worse than George W.

  45. [All the Labor supporters are sitting in the dark and freezing
    so that they can prove the Libs wrong?]

    My electricity bill for the qtr from AGL was $321. Less than I spend on telecoms. Double 😛 with twist and pike. 😉

  47. Confessions

    On Tony Smith, I agree. I think he has even been demoted by Tony Abbott. As TA demotes or drops rarely – Tony Smith has achieved something rare!!

    Kevin Andrews has also reached his “best before” date.

    On further consideration, I think I will retract my Vic Libs statement of earlier. Some cogent examples of otherwise have been presented by the bludgertariat.

  48. Re: Rick Perry

    This guy is more of a happy clapper than George W Bush IMHO.

    The ABC report from Lateline last night http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2011/s3291675.htm made him seem somewhat more Machiavellian than that – he may be courting the happy clapper vote (which is quite a significant base politically in the US), but I’d be somewhat cynical that he’s doing this to position himself, not that he’s necessarily that way inclined himself … perhaps he is perhaps he’s not, I think he’s a canny political operator first and foremost.

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