Morgan: 56.5-43.5 or 53.5-46.5 or 57-43 or 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has released two sets of poll results simultaneously, by way of confusing the hell out of everybody who doesn’t pay more attention than they ought to. One combines the results of the last two weekends’ face-to-face polling; the other is a phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday nights from a big sample of 1006. Furthermore, Morgan as always publishes separate two-party results using both respondent-allocated preferences and preferences as directed at the previous election, and these continue the recent trend of being highly divergent.

For mine, the most significant of the resulting four sets of figures is the previous-election two-party measure from the phone poll, as this has been conducted with the same methodology and from a similar sample size as Newspoll. Unfortunately, this particular result does not make sense to me. Whereas the primary vote figures are slightly better for the Coalition than this week’s Newspoll – 49 per cent against 29.5 per cent for Labor and 12 per cent for the Greens, compared with 47 per cent, 29 per cent and 12 per cent – the previous-election two-party result is a fair bit worse: 54.5-45.5 compared with Newspoll’s 56-44. Applying the preference flows from the previous election (with 79 per cent of Greens preferences and 42 per cent of all other minor party and independent preferences going to Labor) produces a result of 57-43. That, as it happens, is the result Morgan has listed for its respondent-allocated measure – which is not to suggest they have run them the wrong way around.

The phone poll also comes with attitudinal questions, finding global warming scepticism at a plateau of 37 per cent after a steady increase over the previous three years; opinions on the carbon tax more or less unchanged since a month ago with support at 38 per cent and opposition at 58 per cent; and support for the Coalition’s policy of overturning the carbon tax down three points to 45 per cent with opposition up three to 48 per cent. There is also a flawed question on asylum seekers which invites respondents to choose between allowing boat arrivals to apply for immigration or subjecting them to the Malaysia solution, with no further options available. This finds 52 per cent appearing to support the Malaysia solution, contrary to last week’s Essential Research, but this is almost certainly because it’s the “tougher” of the only two alternatives presented.

The face-to-face poll shows essentially no change on the previous published result from the weekends of July 16-17 and July 23-24. Labor’s primary vote is steady on a relatively healthy 34.5 per cent, the Coalition is up half a point to 47.5 per cent and the Greens are steady on 12 per cent. The respondent-allocated two-party result is unchanged on 56.5-43.5, while the previous-election result is up from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5. This time, the latter figure is exactly where I would expect it to be.

In other news, draft federal boundaries for South Australia were published today: see the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,111 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 or 53.5-46.5 or 57-43 or 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  1. victoria,

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  2. When Howard was Treasurer the head of the department was John Stone (who later became a Nationals Senator). Stone strongly opposed the float because at the time, the Treasury’s view at the time was the less of Hewson and Rose they saw, the better. Howard was indecisive on the Campbell Report (similar to Hockey during the leadership crisis in 2009) despite the pleading of Hewson and Rose. The result was a stagnant recession with unemployment at 11%, Inflation at 11%, Growth at 1.5% and the cash rate at 22% (the housing rate was at 13% because it was artificially set by the government).

    When the ALP floated the dollar, Stone was still the head of the Treasury and still strongly opposed it.

  3. SK

    Yes we have gone down that path,but for some reason it has not worked.

    We are obviously doing something wrong. Serves us right for being computer illiterate!

  4. [Gary Sparrow

    Posted Sunday, August 14, 2011 at 10:15 pm | Permalink

    Your failure to do so must be taken as proof you cannot support your thought bubble – yet again.

    Your failure to read my posts which contain such evidence disqualifies you from being able to make such statements.

    But you’re honestly not worth responding to any more dave you’re posts are boring repetitive and abusive.
    ]

    As Paul Simon once sang:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfv3kBzJZgU

  5. I have to agree with Gary Sparrow on Fraser. His was a largely wasted government which only highlighted the reforms required to re-structure a tired economy but left the hard lifting to Hawke/Keating. In my lifetime Hawke/Keating was the best government followed by Howard/Costello. 1983 to 2007 was an exceptional economic period for Australia. We were the lucky country during that period with Hawke/Keating building a solid platform which Howard/Costello used to good advantage.

    Note – the above refers to matters economic and we could debate for a long time the shortcomings of both governments in other areas.

  6. Forgot to mention wages growth in 1982 which was 16%. This was the reason the ALP implemented the Prices and Incomes accord with the union movement when they got into government.

    You hear News Limited papers constantly saying that the economy is in danger of a wages blowout from the ALP’s new IR Laws. The fact is that there is more danger of wages growth from the Coalition who reject the idea of a wages policy and working with unions to make sure wages growth doesn’t get out of control like it did in the 70’s and early 80’s.

  7. [As Paul Simon once sang:]
    Bridge over troubled water?
    Here’s to you Mrs Robinson?
    I’m going to Graceland, Memphis, Tennessee?
    You can call me Al?
    So Long, Frank Lloyd Wright?
    Parsley, Sage, Rosemary and Thyme?
    Are you going to Scarbaroaugh Fair?

  8. spur212
    Posted Sunday, August 14, 2011 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

    Stone strongly opposed the float because at the time, the Treasury’s view at the time was the less of Hewson and Rose they saw, the better.

    Howard was indecisive on the Campbell Report (similar to Hockey during the leadership crisis in 2009) despite the pleading of Hewson and Rose.

    The result was –

    – a stagnant recession with unemployment at 11%,

    – Inflation at 11%, Growth at 1.5% and

    – the cash rate at 22% (the housing rate was at 13% because it was artificially set by
    the government).

    aka the Howard’s *Trilogy of Misery* the only time seen in Australia since the great depression.

  9. TLBD,

    It would be interesting to actually know the legality of all those software (and other service) providers who charge for providing advice on using their products.

    I know the user licences would have clauses relating to charges, however, I wonder how they would stand up when they nearly always have terms like ‘simple to use’ or ‘intuitive’ on their packs/advertising.

  10. Victoria,

    I think that someone would have a very good case, on fit for purpose grounds, against software vendors charging to give advice to just get their software running.

  11. Treasurer Howard’s Coalition Economic Records

    1) The Worst Recession since the Great Depression.

    2) The first and only instance of STAGFLATION – the combination of recession and inflation.

    3) The first and only ‘Trifecta of Misery”, the combination of simultaneous:

    double-digit unemployment
    double-digit interest rates
    and double-digit inflation

  12. Cuppa I don’t think there is much doubt that the Fraser government was a disappointment and how much of that is down to Howard is a matter of opinion and largely irrelevant. Governments are a team and good governments have a leader with the ability to manage change and carry the ordinary folks along with them.

  13. [2030

    drake

    Posted Sunday, August 14, 2011 at 10:43 pm | Permalink

    Frank Calabrese
    Posted Sunday, August 14, 2011 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    2024

    Gary Sparrow

    Posted Sunday, August 14, 2011 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    Once again it’s been hijacked by

    Some things never change

    And so say:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9ARcLTcqoA

    Give me a break Frank:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONXx_YAy30Y
    ]

    As Janice Joplin wailed:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjD4eWEUgMM

  14. ABC has a show on Freemasons.

    Wiki tells me that Don Bradman, Bob Menzies, Edmund Barton, Ted and FD Roosevelt were all Freemasons.

    I have never knowingly met a Freemason.

  15. [I have never knowingly met a Freemason.]
    Why don’t you just go into the Grand Lodge on North Terrace? They frequently have open days.

  16. Diogenes @ 2036

    I have known a few, including my father who was in it for a while but dropped out.

    I have never seen the appeal.

  17. [Is that because you don’t know the secret handshake? ;)]
    Dio is an expert of the ‘Christmas Handshake’, which his patients appreciate very much when they are post-operative.

  18. [Once again it’s been hijacked by]

    [Some things never change]

    Gentlemen, don’t let it stop the debate I am enjoying the to and fro of sensible debate and civil discourse,

    Cheers

  19. [Some things never change]

    Gentlemen, don’t let it stop the debate I am enjoying the to and fro of sensible debate and civil discourse,

    Cheers

Comments are closed.

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