Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement Newspoll is one of the happier poll results for the government of the past fortnight: the Coalition’s two-party lead has eased to 56-44 from 58-42 a fortnight ago and support for the carbon tax is up six points to 36 per cent, with opposition down six to 53 per cent. On the primary vote, Labor is up two points to 29 per cent, the Coalition is down two to 47 per cent and the Greens are up one to 13 per cent. Julia Gillard has gained two points on approval to 32 per cent, but her disapproval remains stuck on 59 per cent. Tony Abbott is down three on approval to 39 per cent and up three on disapproval to 52 per cent, and has only just maintained his lead as preferred prime minister, dropping two points to 41 per cent with Gillard up two to 40 per cent.

We also had from the Herald-Sun yesterday a poll of 625 voters in Julia Gillard’s electorate of Lalor, conducted by JWS Research using its usual methodology of automated phone calls. The company has had a rather patchy record with its previous political polling, and the latest survey has been criticised for asking respondents attitudinal questions before proceeding to voting intention. It points to a 14 per cent swing against Gillard – solidly higher than the trend of recent national polling – although she still leads 58-42 on two-party preferred. Gillard has a four-point net positive approval rating among her own constituents, but the carbon tax is opposed by 43 per cent compared with 33 per cent in support. Fifty-seven per cent rate her “honest and trustworthy” (either quite or very), with 34 per cent opting for the negative.

UPDATE: Bernard Keane in Crikey reports the latest Essential Research result has the Coalition lead at 55-45, down from 56-44 last week and 57-43 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is up a point to 32 per cent, and the Coalition’s down one to 48 per cent. However, Tony Abbott’s policy of scrapping the carbon tax has the support of 50 per cent of respondents, with only 36 per cent opposed. There are also questions on trust in the media, which is found to have “slumped dramatically in recent months”. Trust in daily newspapers rates in the low 50s, television and radio news and current affairs in the high 40s and talk radio in the low 30s. With respect to specific outlets, the ABC and broadsheets are more trusted than the commercial media and tabloids. Fifty-eight per cent say the government should not allow one company to own the majority of Australia’s major newspapers – as News Limited does – which is up from 50 per cent since the question was last asked in November.

UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,392 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. [
    evan14

    Posted Sunday, July 24, 2011 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    I turned off SBS: the jingoism and Cadel Evans lovefest is embarrassing, even for what is usually a professional bunch of sporting commentators.

    ]
    You should be used to it.

    You keep posting here 🙂

  2. [If Abbott chooses to draw attention to himself by constantly referencing his genitals he deserves all the scoffing and scorn he gets]

    Thank goodness we have a strident media who will prosecute him for such disgusting references

    BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA ha ha er hm

  3. [Abbott is talking about his testicles.

    Julia is talking policy.]

    Tony wants to you to vote for his testicles – apparently that’s just another way of saying “I’m a man”

  4. [I turned off SBS: the jingoism and Cadel Evans lovefest is embarrassing, even for what is usually a professional bunch of sporting commentators.]

    He just won the biggest bike race in the world. Should they hate him?

  7. [Tony Abbott can’t help being such a virile and masculine man. He oozes machismo and can’t keep it in. It is one of the reasons people like him more than the cold, sterile, empty fruit bowl who is currently Prime Minister.]

    Really dumb comments, akin to those you made last night re. depression.

    I don’t know why I bother – it must be cheap plonk.

    But I’ll give you the benefit of doubt, putting it down to youthful exuberance; but keep it up and I’ll call a spade a spade – of that you can rest assured.

  8. Nope Dario………it’s a great achievement, but there are other people in the bike race……..I expect the commercial channels to go over the top with the Aussie Aussie Aussie cheerleading, flag waving crap, not Phil Liggett & his colleagues on SBS.

  10. Two Stroke,

    Abbott would throttle you if he witnessed your attack on Julia Gillard’s childlessness. He’d concede the difference between us unfairly taking the piss out of his shrunken-nuts gaff and your cruel take on a woman’s past opportunity to bear a child.

    I guarantee – he’d shorten you up.

  12. [He just won the biggest bike race in the world. Should they hate him?]

    I have heard that he’s not the nicest guy. Plus they say he’s boring too.

  17. [I have heard that he’s not the nicest guy. Plus they say he’s boring too.]

    Wow, I guess he should hand the jersey back then! FMD some people.

  19. I don’t know about Abbott oozing machismo.

    He reminds me more of a little scotty terrier my old aunt Mary used to have in the ’70’s. The mutt hadn’t been fixed and lacked an outlet for his….ah…. romantic needs. The inevitable result was that as soon as you entered Mary’s house, he’d attach himself to and proceed to hump your trouser legs.

    Very off putting.

    Old Mares used to make a joke of it: ‘Oh look, I think he likes you”, she’d spout as the mutt pounded-away on the leg of my new chocolate-brown corduroy flares. ‘Fer fuxsakes, get him off will ya?’ would come the reply. The stains were disgusting. And the physics of the situation were such that you couldn’t even kick the mutt in the slats to get him to let-go, either.

    I think she eventually got the dog neutered. In any event, it eventually stopped rooting my legs

    As for Abbott, he’s been leaving stains on trouser legs the length and breadth of the land for two years now.

    Perhaps, just perhaps, it’s time for that trip to the vet.

  25. [Cadel has balls twice the size of Tony Abbott, and more guts than any of his pea-heart detractors in here]

    And a very decent bloke to boot.

  31. [Old Mares used to make a joke of it: ‘Oh look, I think he likes you”, she’d spout as the mutt pounded-away on the leg of my new chocolate-brown corduroy flares. ‘Fer fuxsakes, get him off will ya?’ would come the reply. The stains were disgusting. And the physics of the situation were such that you couldn’t even kick the mutt in the slats to get him to let-go, either.

    I think she eventually got the dog neutered. In any event, it eventually stopped rooting my legs

    As for Abbott, he’s been leaving stains on trouser legs the length and breadth of the land for two years now.

    Perhaps, just perhaps, it’s time for that trip to the vet.]

    That is absolutely hilarious – I’m saving that.

  35. [Being the oldest winner since 1923 is pretty damn impressive as well #tdf]

    He’s 34. I was just about to ask how he ranks in term of age of winners.

    But what about the American bloke who is married to that singer?

  37. [Should be even more if News Corp gets broken up (hey we can hope right)]

    JJ, it would be a start, let’s put it that way

  41. “support for the carbon tax is up six points to 36 per cent, with opposition down six to 53 per cent”

    Slowly slowly catchy monkey….

    Keep explaining the policy. Let Abbott do the empty slogans.

  43. And the young ones are in favour. There’ll be a few who will turn 18 in the next two years and a few will drop off the other end.

  47. [Slowly slowly catchy monkey….

    Keep explaining the policy. Let Abbott do the empty slogans.]

    But haven’t you heard? The media’s bored! The government has to stop talking about the Carbon Tax!

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