Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement Newspoll is one of the happier poll results for the government of the past fortnight: the Coalition’s two-party lead has eased to 56-44 from 58-42 a fortnight ago and support for the carbon tax is up six points to 36 per cent, with opposition down six to 53 per cent. On the primary vote, Labor is up two points to 29 per cent, the Coalition is down two to 47 per cent and the Greens are up one to 13 per cent. Julia Gillard has gained two points on approval to 32 per cent, but her disapproval remains stuck on 59 per cent. Tony Abbott is down three on approval to 39 per cent and up three on disapproval to 52 per cent, and has only just maintained his lead as preferred prime minister, dropping two points to 41 per cent with Gillard up two to 40 per cent.

We also had from the Herald-Sun yesterday a poll of 625 voters in Julia Gillard’s electorate of Lalor, conducted by JWS Research using its usual methodology of automated phone calls. The company has had a rather patchy record with its previous political polling, and the latest survey has been criticised for asking respondents attitudinal questions before proceeding to voting intention. It points to a 14 per cent swing against Gillard – solidly higher than the trend of recent national polling – although she still leads 58-42 on two-party preferred. Gillard has a four-point net positive approval rating among her own constituents, but the carbon tax is opposed by 43 per cent compared with 33 per cent in support. Fifty-seven per cent rate her “honest and trustworthy” (either quite or very), with 34 per cent opting for the negative.

UPDATE: Bernard Keane in Crikey reports the latest Essential Research result has the Coalition lead at 55-45, down from 56-44 last week and 57-43 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is up a point to 32 per cent, and the Coalition’s down one to 48 per cent. However, Tony Abbott’s policy of scrapping the carbon tax has the support of 50 per cent of respondents, with only 36 per cent opposed. There are also questions on trust in the media, which is found to have “slumped dramatically in recent months”. Trust in daily newspapers rates in the low 50s, television and radio news and current affairs in the high 40s and talk radio in the low 30s. With respect to specific outlets, the ABC and broadsheets are more trusted than the commercial media and tabloids. Fifty-eight per cent say the government should not allow one company to own the majority of Australia’s major newspapers – as News Limited does – which is up from 50 per cent since the question was last asked in November.

UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,392 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 108
1 2 3 … 108

  1. [But Newspoll is arguably the most accurate]

    In terms of their polls taken immediately before an election perhaps, but 2+ years out from one LOL?

  2. I think it was Boerwar who predicted Newspoll would be an improvement, or status quo.

    Well done to Boerwar and Bluey!

  3. [The Labor circle jerkers who infest PB should not get too excited. Note in particular that 59 Australians out of every 100 disapprove of Ju-liar. And not without reason]

    Trust you to put a damper on it.

  4. [charlton

    Posted Sunday, July 24, 2011 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    The Labor circle jerkers who infest PB should not get too excited. Note in particular that 59 Australians out of every 100 disapprove of Ju-liar. And not without reason

    Trust you to put a damper on it.
    ]

    *Woosh* 🙂

  5. Two more years of the longest election campaign in history. Makes 1974-5 look like a, oops I was going to say tea party. I’m predicting this is the turning point. The start of the narrowing. Ever the optimist.

  6. [In terms of their polls taken immediately before an election perhaps, but 2+ years out from one LOL?]

    Let’s be a bit more positive: Labor improves marginally and Evans wins the Tour.

  7. Boerwar,

    [poroti

    Nah. His testicles were shrunken because he had gone for a swim in Port Phillip Bay. AGW did it. ]

    It’s a pity he forgot that he was to meet up with the Chinese submarine. 😉

  8. I still wouldn’t be cheering the wonderful and graceful and intelligent Ms Gillard with a primary vote of less than 30% and the fact that a 2% movement on 2PP is well within the MOE…but the next few polls will tell the real tale…IMHO.

    I’ll take 56/44 any day 🙂

    Night Bludgers…

  9. Its fair to point out that polls still have 2 or 3 points of noise either side. This was true when Rudd was trending 56 and its still true now.

  10. All this talk of Tony Abbott’s testicles! Imagine if Coalition supporters were talking of Julia Gillard’s breasts.

  11. [Let’s be a bit more positive: Labor improves marginally and Evans wins the Tour.]

    Aussie on pole position in tonight’s grand Prix also.

    Fingers crossed!

  13. Two Piece Feed,

    [All this talk of Tony Abbott’s testicles! ]

    Well, if he hadn’t brought it up, nobody would be talking about it, would they?

  14. [All this talk of Tony Abbott’s testicles! Imagine if Coalition supporters were talking of Julia Gillard’s breasts.]

    Abbott is talking about his testicles.

    Julia is talking policy.

  16. [All this talk of Tony Abbott’s testicles! Imagine if Coalition supporters were talking of Julia Gillard’s breasts.]

    and who made the original comment about the effect in swimming in Port Phillip Bay?

  17. stefandevries For all those who went into anti-muslim reflex: in 2009 there were 294 terrorist attacks in EU, only 1 of them by Islamists. Source: Europol

  18. [Two more years of the longest election campaign in history. Makes 1974-5 look like a, oops I was going to say tea party. I’m predicting this is the turning point. The start of the narrowing. Ever the optimist]

    Agree. And it’s marvelous how even a little upward movement can improve morale at all levels, evidenced by the general positive attitudes on this site tonight following the release of the poll.

  19. [and who made the original comment about the effect in swimming in Port Phillip Bay?]

    Tony Abbott can’t help being such a virile and masculine man. He oozes machismo and can’t keep it in. It is one of the reasons people like him more than the cold, sterile, empty fruit bowl who is currently Prime Minister.

  21. [It is one of the reasons people like him more than the cold, sterile, empty fruit bowl who is currently Prime Minister.]

    How dare she not be barefoot and pregant in the kitchen…

  23. Journo: “Mr Abbott, 3 out of 4 economists and almost all scientists believe your climate change policy is the wrong one for this country. What is your response?”

    Abbott: “Well I’m glad you’ve brought the issue of my testicles up…”

  24. [Tony Abbott can’t help being such a virile and masculine man. He oozes machismo and can’t keep it in. ]

    TPF, that is just a sick image. Tony Abbott, oozing?? 🙁

    Hmmm…… maybe if you were referencing lies, stupidity, ignoracnce and opportunism it would fit him better.

  25. redglitterx When the rest of the media follows stories ginned up by Fox to smear their political opponents, we all wind up working for Fox.~ Cenk Uygur

  32. [Imagine if Coalition supporters were talking of Julia Gillard’s breasts.]

    They might not talk about her breasts, but they certainly talk about her womb and its lack of productivity.

  34. [They might not talk about her breasts, but they certainly talk about her womb and its lack of productivity.]

    Yes, well people shouldn’t make hypocrites of themselves by condemning one but not the other. Just because a man wears a pair of tight speedos doesn’t mean its an invitation to talk about his penis and testicles all day long.

  36. [Just because a man wears a pair of tight speedos doesn’t mean its an invitation to talk about his penis and testicles all day long.]

    It’s only small talk TPF, not a lot to worry about. Very little really..

  37. [84

    Two Piece Feed

    Posted Sunday, July 24, 2011 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    They might not talk about her breasts, but they certainly talk about her womb and its lack of productivity.

    Yes, well people shouldn’t make hypocrites of themselves by condemning one but not the other. Just because a man wears a pair of tight speedos doesn’t mean its an invitation to talk about his penis and testicles all day long.
    ]

    As Johnny O’Keefe once wailed:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeU5gv8m-mI

  38. [Just because a man wears a pair of tight speedos doesn’t mean its an invitation to talk about his penis and testicles all day long.]

    If Abbott chooses to draw attention to himself by constantly referencing his genitals he deserves all the scoffing and scorn he gets. At least the PM behaves like a mature adult.

  39. [If Abbott chooses to draw attention to himself by constantly referencing his genitals he deserves all the scoffing and scorn he gets.]

    Yes, this is possibly true. But you shouldn’t think any of the scoffing and scorn will hurt his appeal to voters.

  40. All this despite the evil biased MSM, Kevin Rudd, Radio Liberal – that Julia Gillard, she’s the real comeback Queen. 🙂

  41. Yes, this is possibly true. But you shouldn’t think any of the scoffing and scorn will hurt his appeal to voters.

    Lumpheaded Bogans talk make jokes about their genetials, Mature Leaders don’t

  44. In Abbott’s defense, if you’d plunged into 9 degrees water, your nether regions would be feeling the effects also.
    If you’re any sort of serious swimmer, you wear Speedos, simple as that!

  46. [But you shouldn’t think any of the scoffing and scorn will hurt his appeal to voters.]

    That remains to be seen. There is a while yet to go til the election. At the moment it’s the govt led by a mature adult vs the rabble led by the extra from Boogie Nights.

  47. I turned off SBS: the jingoism and Cadel Evans lovefest is embarrassing, even for what is usually a professional bunch of sporting commentators.

  50. [In Abbott’s defense, if you’d plunged into 9 degrees water, your nether regions would be feeling the effects also.]

    Only boofheads guffaw and make a song and dance about it though. Mature people just accept it as an unwelcome physiological consequence.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 2 of 108
1 2 3 … 108