Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement Newspoll is one of the happier poll results for the government of the past fortnight: the Coalition’s two-party lead has eased to 56-44 from 58-42 a fortnight ago and support for the carbon tax is up six points to 36 per cent, with opposition down six to 53 per cent. On the primary vote, Labor is up two points to 29 per cent, the Coalition is down two to 47 per cent and the Greens are up one to 13 per cent. Julia Gillard has gained two points on approval to 32 per cent, but her disapproval remains stuck on 59 per cent. Tony Abbott is down three on approval to 39 per cent and up three on disapproval to 52 per cent, and has only just maintained his lead as preferred prime minister, dropping two points to 41 per cent with Gillard up two to 40 per cent.

We also had from the Herald-Sun yesterday a poll of 625 voters in Julia Gillard’s electorate of Lalor, conducted by JWS Research using its usual methodology of automated phone calls. The company has had a rather patchy record with its previous political polling, and the latest survey has been criticised for asking respondents attitudinal questions before proceeding to voting intention. It points to a 14 per cent swing against Gillard – solidly higher than the trend of recent national polling – although she still leads 58-42 on two-party preferred. Gillard has a four-point net positive approval rating among her own constituents, but the carbon tax is opposed by 43 per cent compared with 33 per cent in support. Fifty-seven per cent rate her “honest and trustworthy” (either quite or very), with 34 per cent opting for the negative.

UPDATE: Bernard Keane in Crikey reports the latest Essential Research result has the Coalition lead at 55-45, down from 56-44 last week and 57-43 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is up a point to 32 per cent, and the Coalition’s down one to 48 per cent. However, Tony Abbott’s policy of scrapping the carbon tax has the support of 50 per cent of respondents, with only 36 per cent opposed. There are also questions on trust in the media, which is found to have “slumped dramatically in recent months”. Trust in daily newspapers rates in the low 50s, television and radio news and current affairs in the high 40s and talk radio in the low 30s. With respect to specific outlets, the ABC and broadsheets are more trusted than the commercial media and tabloids. Fifty-eight per cent say the government should not allow one company to own the majority of Australia’s major newspapers – as News Limited does – which is up from 50 per cent since the question was last asked in November.

UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,392 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  2. Darn @ 2445

    MDB stands for the Murray Darling Basin.

    The new level of compulsory super will be, as I understand it, part of the arrangements for the MRT.

  5. Forget the polls! Julia has to do a job!

    The polls have a long long time to turn. If the job is done, they will. 😎

  6. GP is not here but he just channeled a message through Bluey:

    The Labor circle jerkers who infest PB should not get too excited. Note in particular that 59 Australians out of every 100 disapprove of Ju-liar. And not without reason.

  8. [support for the carbon tax is up six points to 36 per cent, and opposition is down six to 53 per cent]

    This is the better news in the numbers – as the government does the hard work, as the PM and MPs put out the facts day in day out, and as more and more experts tell us that Abbott’s plan (or lack thereof) is total BS, then this will also pull Labor’s primary up. I would like to see the polling numbers on the CP and Labor’s primary vote graphed. I suspect (guess) they would parallel each other

  9. I wouldn’t get too excited by this poll. A PV of 29% and a net approval for Gillard of -27% is pretty diabolical. A long term trend is needed.

  12. [charlton
    Posted Sunday, July 24, 2011 at 10:22 pm | Permalink
    TP, evan14, Mod Lib, GP – where are you all?

    I’d like to know your interpretation at this very difficult point in the cycle for the Government.]

    Well, how could I miss an offer like that!!!

    Evening all. Have been out all day/friends over tonight, so just logged in to see what has been happening, before heading off to bed…

    A great poll for the ALP supporters here, its been a weekend of good news politically and sportingly if not in other ways.

    I know you all block the Australian’swebsite but the most useful thing for me is the 18m trend of Newspolls and this is smack bang in the “line of best fit” methinks, so pretty much where you would expect it.

    Having said that, its very good for Gillard that we are just on trend and her numbers are not plunging even lower (if that is even possible).

  13. Again, best not to get ahead of ourselves. Good sign tonight but still a very long way to go and the Coalition still maintains a healthy lead.

  16. I think this result was inevitable. Let’s just hope it is the beginning of a very long, very slow, trend. Don’t want the Liberals to panic and change their leader; he is such a nice leader.

  17. Instead of recalibrating his Blueytrend Bluey is withholding judgement:

    one poll doth not a spring make
    it is only not a shocker because of what came before

    Plus he does not trust what News has done to the poll. Bluey reckons that if they can fiddle electronically with tens of thousands of people’s digital innards, they can skew a poll.

    He doesn’t know why they would, but then he doesn’t reckon there is a clear logic between what is happening in the real world and what ‘The Australian’ prints anyway.

  19. I should add to my previous post that there has been a downswing in the ALP TPP trendline since May, but time will tell how this pans out compared with the longer trend.

  21. [Having said that, its very good for Gillard that we are just on trend and her numbers are not plunging even lower (if that is even possible).]

    Faint praise, yes, but even that is appreciated at this point.

  23. [Dario,

    What’s the history behind the non-competitive final stage of the TdF?

    Only really got interested this year and last. Fascinating race steeped in history.]

    The yellow jersey is meant to be honoured by both the wearer and the other riders, so it’s just one of those unwritten rules that has evolved over time. You don’t attack if the yellow jersey gets a flat tyre or a mechanical problem, and the stage into Paris is to honour the yellow.

    [He then learned that the Australian government might declare Monday a national holiday in his honor]

    One of the Aussie journos in a the presser told Cadel that it had been approved by the PM. I reckon he was just spinning a line to get a reaction personally. Haven’t heard any confirmation.

  25. [Faint praise, yes, but even that is appreciated at this point.]

    Its 56:44 guys not 50:50. Its still around the level of the greatest defeats in Aust Federal election history. But yes, given it could easily have been 60:40 or worse for the ALP, 56:44 is pretty good news! 😉

  26. [So much for Evan’s 60-40

    Why hasn’t he showed up yet ?]

    On these figures, although modest, I would think he’d have problems arguing his usual meme but I have no doubt he will.

  28. Very disappointing poll result. The drama and unhinging caused by bad newspolls for Labor is always much more entertaining here on poll bludger than the effects of good ones.

    You know there is something seriously wrong with labor when people see a 56-44 result and are pleased though. Primary votes under 30 are considered normal now.

  29. victoria (from previous thread re others involvement in Norway).

    Don’t know. News is still coming out. It’ll keep coming in dribs and drabs over the next day or so as the authorities connect the dots.

  30. If Labor gets close to drawing level with the Coalition, Abbotts little marbles in budgies would have a better chance of surviving a winters season in the south pole than him staying as leader.

    *night*

  32. And a bit of humour:
    [CheeseChuckers The big cheese
    by 2FBS
    Cadel should be careful. The french are angry with his success. Bread sticks have been spotted in book depository windows. Pedal like f**k!!]

  34. [Two Piece Feed

    Posted Sunday, July 24, 2011 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    Very disappointing poll result. The drama and unhinging caused by bad newspolls for Labor is always much more entertaining here on poll bludger than the effects of good ones.

    You know there is something seriously wrong with labor when people see a 56-44 result and are pleased though. Primary votes under 30 are considered normal now.
    ]

    Dedicated to you and the other bridge dwellers:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0ULkUzRCSs

  37. [Its 56:44 guys not 50:50. Its still around the level of the greatest defeats in Aust Federal election history. But yes, given it could easily have been 60:40 or worse for the ALP, 56:44 is pretty good news! 😉 ]

    Of course! But its relative. It’d be a terrible result if there was an election. This far out from an election though, there’s a long time to keep turning things round. I also expect the News Ltd papers to focus on the Coalition still being ahead rather than noting the change at all.

  38. Two piece, “unhinging” is a term reserved exclusively for Abbott the mad monk 😉 When Abbott’s unhinging comes, you should make sure to have shares in Stegbar – lot’s of broken doors and windows will ensue

  41. I don’t want to be too negative but this isn’t even back to where they were just prior to the announcement.

    13-15 May 55 to 45
    27-29 May 52 to 48
    10-12 June 55 to 45
    24-26 June 55 to 45
    8-10 July 58 to 42 (CT announced Lunchtime July10)
    22-24 July 56 to 44

  43. http://australianpolitics.com/voting/statistics/two-party-preferred-statistics-since-1949

    Found a link to historic TPP votes:

    [Two Party-Preferred Votes in H/R Elections 1949-2010
    Election Year ALP Non-ALP
    2010= 50.12

    2007= 52.70

    2004= 52.74

    2001= 50.95

    1998= 50.98

    1996= 53.63

    1993= 51.44

    1990= 50.10

    1987= 50.8

    1984= 51.8

    1983= 53.2

    1980= 50.4

    1977= 54.6

    1975= 55.7

    1974= 51.7

    1972= 52.7

    1969= 50.2

    1966= 56.9

    1963= 52.6

    1961= 50.5

    1958= 54.1

    1955= 53.5

    1954= 50.5

    1951= 50.8

    1949= 51.3]

    Remarkable how even the federal results have been…also looks like ALP big wins tend to be smaller than the Coalition big wins over the last 60 years.

  44. [I hate it when you’re in a good mood Frank.]

    Hate’s no good – it eats you from the inside out. Try some breathing exercises and buy a puppy

  45. Ifonly, little if any of the 58-42 result from July 8-10 would have been conducted after the announcement, and the number of respondents who would have encountered serious media coverage of it at the time they responded would have been negligble.

  46. [Its 56:44 guys not 50:50. Its still around the level of the greatest defeats in Aust Federal election history. But yes, given it could easily have been 60:40 or worse for the ALP, 56:44 is pretty good news!]

    On these figures your’e correct.

    Even Gough did a little better in ’75.

    But Newspoll is arguably the most accurate and if repeated, it means that Abbott has peaked, with the result that division within the Coalition will intensify.

    Anyway, this is the first good news for the ALP for some time, so I’m having a port.

  48. From the previous thread! Slightly out but understandable when one knows who predicted it! 😉

    [evan14
    Posted Sunday, July 24, 2011 at 5:31 pm | Permalink

    Early Newspoll Prediction:
    Coalition 60
    ALP 40 ]

  49. [I don’t want to be too negative but this isn’t even back to where they were just prior to the announcement. ]

    Its not, but again, there’s time for that. And that there’s an upswing despite the constant media BS is good!

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