GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement Newspoll is one of the happier poll results for the government of the past fortnight: the Coalition’s two-party lead has eased to 56-44 from 58-42 a fortnight ago and support for the carbon tax is up six points to 36 per cent, with opposition down six to 53 per cent. On the primary vote, Labor is up two points to 29 per cent, the Coalition is down two to 47 per cent and the Greens are up one to 13 per cent. Julia Gillard has gained two points on approval to 32 per cent, but her disapproval remains stuck on 59 per cent. Tony Abbott is down three on approval to 39 per cent and up three on disapproval to 52 per cent, and has only just maintained his lead as preferred prime minister, dropping two points to 41 per cent with Gillard up two to 40 per cent.
We also had from the Herald-Sun yesterday a poll of 625 voters in Julia Gillard’s electorate of Lalor, conducted by JWS Research using its usual methodology of automated phone calls. The company has had a rather patchy record with its previous political polling, and the latest survey has been criticised for asking respondents attitudinal questions before proceeding to voting intention. It points to a 14 per cent swing against Gillard – solidly higher than the trend of recent national polling – although she still leads 58-42 on two-party preferred. Gillard has a four-point net positive approval rating among her own constituents, but the carbon tax is opposed by 43 per cent compared with 33 per cent in support. Fifty-seven per cent rate her “honest and trustworthy” (either quite or very), with 34 per cent opting for the negative.
UPDATE: Bernard Keane in Crikey reports the latest Essential Research result has the Coalition lead at 55-45, down from 56-44 last week and 57-43 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is up a point to 32 per cent, and the Coalition’s down one to 48 per cent. However, Tony Abbott’s policy of scrapping the carbon tax has the support of 50 per cent of respondents, with only 36 per cent opposed. There are also questions on trust in the media, which is found to have “slumped dramatically in recent months”. Trust in daily newspapers rates in the low 50s, television and radio news and current affairs in the high 40s and talk radio in the low 30s. With respect to specific outlets, the ABC and broadsheets are more trusted than the commercial media and tabloids. Fifty-eight per cent say the government should not allow one company to own the majority of Australia’s major newspapers – as News Limited does – which is up from 50 per cent since the question was last asked in November.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here.
Shareholder sues Clive Palmer for $500m
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-29/clive-palmer-court-application/2816360
Showson,
If petrol is as low as $2.50 a litre by 2025, I’ll buy you a case of Grange!
This won’t get posted on Abbott’s “blog”, so I’ll put it here instead.
[Let’s see:
8 TV interviews (mostly pre-recorded, of course)
17 doorstops (from which you ran away when the questions were not from the songsheet)
244 radio interviews (on Radio Liberal, interviewed by the Liberal Party’s tame dobermenn)
8 large community events (closed events, interlopers chased away by Liberal thugs)
8 mass meetings with workers (rubbish – you turned up for some photo opportunities!)
Face it, you won’t debate anyone because you know you’re operating in a policy vacuum. The PM will just keep on doing the job of running the country, all you can do is roll out your talking points for the tame media and hope nobody cottons on to how empty you are. ]
shellbell
[Sydney was a much better place to work when vehicle access was cut during APEC]
These guys like the easier access for cars 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r082T2fkDpA
ShowsOn
[If Turnbull is asserting that this is a carbon tax as an excuse, then he has either become delusional or he is lying.]
Become delusional? Turnbull has been seriously deluded for some considerable time, in my view.
Having said that, he is a paragon of mental health compared to his deeply disturbed Liberal Party Leader, who every day looks in more dire need of some major medicinal correction, in my laymen’s opinion.
bemused @ 5094
[charlton @ 5085
Things were also pretty bad in Victoria at the demonstration over the Springbok Rugby Tour. I was one of the over 300 arrested and was one of the fortunate ones not beaten up. Some were quite badly beaten up.
At the time, Dick Hamer, reputedly a moderate was either Premier or Acting Premier. There was nothing moderate about the hysteria whipped up by the State Govt and the wink and a nod given to the police to attack the demonstrators.
Moderate? More like fascism in a velvet glove]
It’s amazing how wrong the Tories get it when it comes to human rights & how prone they have been to using police to enforce their mean-spirited view of the world.
Granted, Labor has had its problems; but the great social advances of the past 100 years have invariably been instigated by the progressive side of politics. And, it’s an indictment on Abbott to think he’s far more conservative than all his Liberal predecessors & danger to the fabric of Australian society – more so in my view than Howard was.
In NZ Piggy employed thugs; in Queensland Joh used a compliant police force; and, in Victoria Hamer also used police to assault apartheid demonstrators.
I guess the the gravamen of the conservative model is don’t change anything unless it’s broken. The problem is: very little is ever broken in the eyes of the Tories.
From a NSW’s perspective, Robert Askin also had the police on side. Although never proved, it is rumoured that he had a relationship with Commissioner Norman Allan which involved other crooked police, the underworld and other shady characters.
I remember when he died in ’81 the rumours were turned into print & the ATO found that his rather large estate ‘came from undisclosed income derived from sources other than shares and gambling.’
I did, however, feel sorry for Lady Askin at the time, who defended him and was probably unaware of his alleged corruption.
http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/askin-sir-robert-william-bob-12152
Morgan phone 53-47 (by last election) 56.5-43.5 (by respondent)
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/4691
Vera
I also voted for Kevin. Anything that raises money for the RSPCA is always supported by me. Thanks also for linking the video, it was very cute.
On to a polling question, I live in the most marginal seat in Qld and have not been polled since the election. I would have thought this would be one seat that the polling companies would target or do they just pick up a pen and throw it at a phonebook?:grin:
Sorry that was Morgan face-to-face not Morgan phone.
😀 checking
The Roy Morgan web site is confirming the improving trend for Labor from two weeks ago Coalition 56.5% to Labor 43.5% a 4% swing on a 2PP basis.
3.5 points seems a remarkably large difference between respondent-indicated and last election, off primaries of 12 Green and 6.5 Ind/Other.
Listened to 1233 ABC radio in Newcastle. Coorey from SMH said Abbott being contradictory in positions and he is starting to get picked up on this. But then wtte because he is so far ahead in polls he is not getting as much scrutiny and is getting away with it. But PHIL, THIS IS THE ALTERNATIVE PRIME MINISTER WHO , IF AN ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY WOULD ROMP IT IN. DOESN’T THIS MEAN HE SHOULD BE UNDER FURTHER SCRUTINY NOT LESS. What will it take for a supposed respected journalist to go out on a limb and start holding Abbott to account?
charlton @ 5356
My interpretation of events at the time is that the Vietnam Moratorium had been held a short time prior to the Anti-Apartheid Demonstrations and with a turn out of 100,000 people, there were enough people to keep order and prevent a police riot. But it left certain sections of the police fuming and looking for an opportunity to go the biff.
They got it shortly afterwards when there was the much smaller Anti-Apartheid Demonstration and certainly not enough citizens to keep order and prevent a police riot.
[3.5 points seems a remarkably large difference between respondent-indicated and last election, off primaries of 12 Green and 6.5 Ind/Other.]
Well you’d think Labor would get at least 9 out of the 12 from the Greens, and at worst 1 out of the Independent / Other.
DavidWH
The Morgan face to face is 47-53 off 2010 preferences (the official method). A swing of 1.5% to the ALP off the last Face to Face. A swing of 7% to the ALP off the last phone poll.
Also worth keeping in mind that this is the first face to face poll conducted by Morgan since the carbon tax was formally announced
The polls mean nothing at the moment, policy is important.
Oh I was talking to my neighbour today, she has given up smoking as has her husband. Why I asked, because it was costing us $300 a month and we could get patches on the PBS.
Another small win for the Govt, they were narky at the increase in ciggie prices but now see it was a good idea. It will save them money and possibly their lives.
[FORMER Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull insists he is “beyond gagging” and will continue speaking freely on climate change.
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has denied there is a rift between him and Mr Turnbull.
Asked about whether his boss had gagged him, Mr Turnbull said he was still free to speak on issues outside his communications portfolio.
“Nobody has gagged me, I’m ungaggable I assure you,” he told reporters in Sydney today.
“I’m beyond gagging.”
But Mr Turnbull declined to say why he had not more enthusiastically endorsed the coalition’s direct action policies on climate change.
“Steady, on,” he said.
“You know my position as a member of the shadow cabinet, I support all of our policies.”]
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/breaking-news/my-climate-views-ungaggable-malcolm-turnbull/story-e6freonf-1226104406404
I’m not sure if this has been posted.
Sorry Kevin didn’t see your post before I posted mine.
Morgan face-to-face polls seem to come up with conflicting results at times. However it does support the trend showing up in Newspoll and Essential. Mind you Labor could hardly get much worse than they were showing.
RNM
[What will it take for a supposed respected journalist to go out on a limb and start holding Abbott to account?]
It will take a myrmidon who is prepared to lose his/her job.
RNM – that;s just what Coorey did though.
Said he was being inconsistent, then made an observation that Abbott isn’t being picked up on it, in a general sense.
The Morgan results, however wayward in their allocation of preferences, do reflect the current trend moving slightly back towards the Government, albeit from a previous wide margin in the Coalition’s favour.
As many of us have been predicting and cajoling, the ALP must hold their nerve over the next 6 months, work constructively (as they have been doing) with the cross benches in the HoR, and the Greens in the Senate, legislate the carbon pricing and MRRT policies, and keep the NBN rolling out, along with all of the other progressive policies currently under consideration
Good policy, taken courageously, and implemented through the current minority Parliament with the support of the minor parties and independents, will be it’s own electoral reward in the long term, despite some short term doubts and opinion polling pain, and in spite of the hysterical attacks from the usual suspects in the Opposition and their boosters in the Murdoch Circus.
The relentless negativity of the Abbott Opposition cannot be maintained over the long term as a politically sound electoral strategy, and the Gillard Government needs to show some ticker and stare down the nay sayers.
Come on, Julia, the rope-a-dope strategy has gone on for long enough, so now is the time to draw Abbott in for the old one-two in the bread basket, then crack him on his glass jaw, and knock these jokers down for the count, and out of the fight.
[Listened to 1233 ABC radio in Newcastle. Coorey from SMH said Abbott being contradictory in positions and he is starting to get picked up on this. But then wtte because he is so far ahead in polls he is not getting as much scrutiny and is getting away with it. But PHIL, THIS IS THE ALTERNATIVE PRIME MINISTER WHO , IF AN ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY WOULD ROMP IT IN. DOESN’T THIS MEAN HE SHOULD BE UNDER FURTHER SCRUTINY NOT LESS. What will it take for a supposed respected journalist to go out on a limb and start holding Abbott to account? ]
Why would they when they can just write the millionth ‘the polls are bad and the irreparably damaged Gillard should just give up already’ article instead?
There’s another thing big business does not like about the Gillard Government. It refuses to even contemplate increasing GST so that state-based business taxes such as payroll tax can be reduced.
The ABC cannot help itself.
[A Cowra man accused of hacking into a company that is contracted to help roll out the NBN will remain in custody until a bail application is made next week.]
The company has no contracts with NBNco. Geez guys what are you smoking?
Did anyone watch Contrarians? Any feedback? There was a comment on Twitter saying that PVO Scrutinises TA more than JG and asked for a poll on it. Any feedback would be great.
[Well you’d think Labor would get at least 9 out of the 12 from the Greens, and at worst 1 out of the Independent / Other.]
In this case out of the 12 Green and 6.5 Ind/Other they are supposedly only getting 9 points, ie supposedly those voters considered together are marginally preferring the Coalition. The sample size is not small either.
[ The relentless negativity of the Abbott Opposition cannot be maintained over the long term as a politically sound electoral strategy, ]
Let’s hope Abbott has climaxed too early. He seems the type.
Their ABC’s News24 this pm was quite scathing on the role of Bolt and others in apportioning blame over the Norway Massacre in the early reporting of events. Especially noting Bolt’s obvious backtracking on originally saying it was a Muslim attack. Even mentioned Glen Beck and his Hitler Youth slur.
I think the wheels have fallen off policy wise for Abbott. It’s just a question of how long he can keep the politics going.
I’m of the view that you can’t be successful politically without a solid mix of policy and politics maintained by a consistent philosophical narrative. In Abbott’s case, he’s overdosed on politics and screwed himself on policy and philosophical consistency.
[Let’s hope Abbott has climaxed too early. He seems the type.]
One must ask his wife, of course, but going by his half-cocked statements as soon as anything is hinted at by the govt, it seems premature ejaculation is Rabbott’s habit.
Given Abbott’s behaviour lately you could say he dribbles before he shoots.
philmour — love your avatar!
It followed me home one day.
New thread.
Myself i reckon hes a dry blower
The quality of Bludger policy discussion has hit a limp low.
It is only a matter of time before someone refers to Abbott’s contribution to public policy as being the intellectual equivalent of a wet spot.
When will Abbott admit he has lost the war over carbon pricing? When will his supporters question his tactics of annoying the people he needed to vote against the bills?
No wonder 2GB’s main sponsors are companies advertising nasal sprays to combat premature ejaculation – Abbott is right at home there! 😆
It has finally happened, The great failure that has been the ABC’s supposedly leading Current Affairs programme bit the dust in a big way last night. It has now scored its smallest audience since the departure of Red Kerry. A miserable 450,000 viewers last night, which meant nearly 400,000 viewers either changed channels or turned off after the 7pm News. ABC executives led by Scott, should be on their knees at a special meeting of the Board pleading their case to retain their jobs. It has now become a National disgrace.
I have sent a copy to Minister Conroy.
Seven News (6pm) — 1.195 million
Today Tonight (Seven) (6.30pm) — 1.191 million
Nine News (6pm) — 1.128 million
A Current Affair (Nine) (6.30pm) — 1.003 million
ABC News (7pm) — 826,000
The 7pm Project (Ten) (7pm) — 663,000
Ten News (5pm) — 589,000
7.30 (ABC) (7.30pm) — 455,000
6.30 with George Negus (Ten) (6.30pm) — 414,000
Late News/Sports Tonight (Ten) (10.30pm) — 256,000
Lateline (ABC) (10.25pm) — 198,000
SBS News (6.30pm) — 159,000
SBS News (9.30pm) — 157,000
Lateline Business (ABC) (11pm) — 99,000
[ poroti
Posted Friday, July 29, 2011 at 2:24 pm | Permalink
Boerwar
The Finn,Boerwar Fukushima Zaibatsu should hire Comical Ali to open a Mission Accomplished Division. From the following article opportunities in the area could abound.
Qassem Suleimani: the Iranian general ‘secretly running’ Iraq
Martin Chulov reports on the elusive Iranian with so much Iraqi influence that Baghdadis believe he is controlling the country.
In Baghdad, no other name invokes the same sort of reaction among the nation’s power base – discomfort, uncertainty and fear.
“He is the most powerful man in Iraq without question,” Iraq’s former national security minister, Mowaffak al-Rubaie, said recently. “Nothing gets done without him.”]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/28/qassem-suleimani-iran-iraq-influence
Very interesting. There has been a theory doing the rounds in leftie circles for some years now that Dick Cheney was in fact a deep cover Iranian agent.
Let’s face it, he couldn’t have orchestrated a better outcome for Iran (and a worse one for the US) viz. Iraq had he been such an agent.
His real name is probably Abdul Bin Rashidan Hashid. Aka Jihad Dick.
Jackol:
[If he thinks he can just come out all of a sudden and say ‘pick me’ he’s dreaming… still, there’s at least a year to go before he would begin really making his play for the top job – plenty of time to get to work to make his case to his colleagues behind the scenes.]
I agree with your take on Turnbull.
He who hesitates is lost (as Costello discovered). There’s no profit in sitting on one’s arse and waiting for that invitation to dance. He’s gotta get out there and shaft Abbott if he wants the job.