Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement Newspoll is one of the happier poll results for the government of the past fortnight: the Coalition’s two-party lead has eased to 56-44 from 58-42 a fortnight ago and support for the carbon tax is up six points to 36 per cent, with opposition down six to 53 per cent. On the primary vote, Labor is up two points to 29 per cent, the Coalition is down two to 47 per cent and the Greens are up one to 13 per cent. Julia Gillard has gained two points on approval to 32 per cent, but her disapproval remains stuck on 59 per cent. Tony Abbott is down three on approval to 39 per cent and up three on disapproval to 52 per cent, and has only just maintained his lead as preferred prime minister, dropping two points to 41 per cent with Gillard up two to 40 per cent.

We also had from the Herald-Sun yesterday a poll of 625 voters in Julia Gillard’s electorate of Lalor, conducted by JWS Research using its usual methodology of automated phone calls. The company has had a rather patchy record with its previous political polling, and the latest survey has been criticised for asking respondents attitudinal questions before proceeding to voting intention. It points to a 14 per cent swing against Gillard – solidly higher than the trend of recent national polling – although she still leads 58-42 on two-party preferred. Gillard has a four-point net positive approval rating among her own constituents, but the carbon tax is opposed by 43 per cent compared with 33 per cent in support. Fifty-seven per cent rate her “honest and trustworthy” (either quite or very), with 34 per cent opting for the negative.

UPDATE: Bernard Keane in Crikey reports the latest Essential Research result has the Coalition lead at 55-45, down from 56-44 last week and 57-43 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is up a point to 32 per cent, and the Coalition’s down one to 48 per cent. However, Tony Abbott’s policy of scrapping the carbon tax has the support of 50 per cent of respondents, with only 36 per cent opposed. There are also questions on trust in the media, which is found to have “slumped dramatically in recent months”. Trust in daily newspapers rates in the low 50s, television and radio news and current affairs in the high 40s and talk radio in the low 30s. With respect to specific outlets, the ABC and broadsheets are more trusted than the commercial media and tabloids. Fifty-eight per cent say the government should not allow one company to own the majority of Australia’s major newspapers – as News Limited does – which is up from 50 per cent since the question was last asked in November.

UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,392 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. [Insiders ABC 1 & NEWS 24 9am Sunday-Panel-The Australian’s Chris Kenny and political commentators Kerry-Anne Walsh and Glenn Milne #insiders]
    Guaranteed emetic effect.
    One to miss.

  2. Well Evan,
    I’ve voted for Kev in the Tea Drinking competition. Good thing, too, especially if he can knock over the Chaffbag Parrot.

  3. [BTW, she’s 68 at the time of this recording in 1976.]

    A spring chicken, Ari, but the link has failed – I got pepped up with it instead of slowed down.

    Vera – have voted for Kev for you and got all the kids, dogs, cows, wallies, kookas, andwhatever else is hangin’ around to do it too. Go Kev!

  5. [Shows On
    Posted Friday, July 29, 2011 at 2:56 pm | Permalink

    Rebel Republicans (read tea party) are stymying John Boehner planned debt compromise as the deadline to avoid a default approaches

    No, they aren’t blocking a compromise deal, which would’be included $1 trillion of tax increases along with $3 trillion of spending cuts, they are currently blocking THE REPUBLICAN ONLY plan!]

    Shows On I was merely repeating the Reuters report, which I gave the link for

  8. [Insiders ABC 1 & NEWS 24 9am Sunday-Panel-The Australian’s Chris Kenny and political commentators Kerry-Anne Walsh and Glenn Milne #insiders]

    BK – they must be getting hard up for people to squat on their chairs. Weren’t these 3 on a couple of weeks ago? Having Kenny and Milne on together is a bit much.

    Definitely one to miss.

  10. [blackburnpseph
    Posted Friday, July 29, 2011 at 1:30 pm | Permalink

    Doubled public transport costs for commuters and built more roads and tunnels for cars

    Sounds like Labor governments in the southern states.]

    Not in Perth. (I call WA ‘southern’ because it’s Aussie rules there). Probably one of the few good things about Burke’s reign was installation of a decent public transport system.

  14. Gorgeous Dunny

    [Probably one of the few good things about Burke’s reign was installation of a decent public transport system.]

    Yep the Libs were going to close the Freo Perth trainline and sell the land. Once that line was revamped the penny dropped and so we now have what I think is a pretty good rail system.

  16. [“I call on the Government, the whole government, every one of the ministers, to write down, to commit absolutely there will be no congestion tax.”]

    Is Joe Hockey serious or just silly?

  17. [david

    I attempted to read it, but I just cant ]

    Short version: Abbott says he’s done a lot in the last two weeks and Gillard hasn’t. Also, carbon tax is bad.

  18. [victoria
    Posted Friday, July 29, 2011 at 3:09 pm | Permalink

    david

    I attempted to read it, but I just cant]

    victoria I understand your problem with it, is a disgraceful litany of rubbish. I left a comment which will not be published, it asks questions about policy, his knowledge of carbon, why does MH hate him? Why does he hate MH? Why is he attempting to blackmail the PM over the public threats of harm towards her? Quoted Cannel 9 this morning so he would know where I was coming from…doubt he will ever get to read it before being deleted. Still someone will.

  24. vanOnselenP Peter van Onselen
    In just under an hour Tim Wilson, Cass Wilkinson and Chris Kenny are on #Contrarians,

  25. [Short version: Abbott says he’s done a lot in the last two weeks and Gillard hasn’t. Also, carbon tax is bad.]

    If I had to score the last 2 weeks, Gillard 5 Abbott 0 (in soccer terms)

  27. Rudd will get the SUNRISE vote for the Tea competition! 🙂

    All very trivial, but beating Alan Jones is always very satisfying(and Rudd would donate his prize money to the RSPCA).

  31. [ruawake
    Posted Friday, July 29, 2011 at 3:15 pm | Permalink

    “I call on the Government, the whole government, every one of the ministers, to write down, to commit absolutely there will be no congestion tax.”

    Is Joe Hockey serious or just silly?]

    I thought it was Abbott who did the stand-up comedy gigs.

  35. [Re: Malcolm Turnbull and a CP vote – I still say he will cross the floor when it comes to the vote (if a division is called of course). His ‘principled’ support of an ETS is his most visible point of differentiation from Tony Abbott. If he’s going to make a play for the Liberal leadership, and I can’t see why he wouldn’t given his history and the small, but significant, window of opportunity that is about to open up, then he has to have a narrative, and the rational carbon pricing policy, rejection of Tony Abbott’s nonsensical scatter-gun approach to politics, is where he can stake his claim.]

    He’s already said he won’t because his support was for the ETS not the Carbon Tax.

  36. I just posted a comment over at the DT. I know it won’t get posted, but I the popup after posting was interesting. It contains this text:

    [Feedback will be rejected if it does not add to a debate, or is a purely personal attack, or is offensive, repetitious, illegal or meaningless, or contains clear errors of fact.]

    My comment fell into the first 3 categories, but nearly every comment on the article breached most of the guidelines, especially the one I’ve bolded above.

    Article is this egregious POS: http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/congestion-road-tax-on-drivers-is-highway-robbery/comments-e6freuy9-1226103742822

  37. [He’s already said he won’t because his support was for the ETS not the Carbon Tax.]

    Plus why burn political bridges in a gesture that achieves nothing, the legislation will still pass if MT votes for it, against it or goes to the club.

  40. ruawake

    [Plus why burn political bridges in a gesture that achieves nothing, the legislation will still pass if MT votes for it, against it or goes to the club]

    Orrrrrrrrrrr he will break out the Grange do an Abbott and upset nobody.

    [TONY Abbott missed the key economic vote of the new Parliament – the $42 billion fiscal stimulus package – because he fell asleep after a night of drinking witnessed by MPs from both sides of Parliament]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/abbott-snoozed-through-key-vote/story-e6freuzr-1111119064644

  41. [But NSW Roads Minister Duncan Gay says the move “would be the very worst thing to do to the commuters of Sydney, who have no alternative in many cases but to use their cars”.

    “This is a state without an alternative form of public transport and if you haven’t got alternative, good, public transport, in many areas of the city you are condemning people to pay twice,” he told reporters in Sydney.]

    Well Duncan old chap, what do you intend doing about it? Plus what is an alternative form of public transport?

  42. [He’s already said he won’t because his support was for the ETS not the Carbon Tax.]
    The Government’s policy IS an ETS that starts off with a fixed price!

    Exactly the same as the amended CPRS that Turnbull agreed to! The major change is the starting price, $23 instead of $20.

  43. I suspect that Turnbull would vote against the carbon tax (he’s already made it clear he supports the original ETS)

    If Direct Action was put before the parliament, I suspect he would abstain.

  44. [But I thought I first heard it mooted by the new head of one of the NSW transport bureaucacies]
    A congestion tax makes perfect economic sense.

    The fact is by 2025, almost half of the cars on the road will be hybrids or electric, so there needs to be a new method of taxing driving other than by taxing fuel (which by then will probably be approaching $2.50 a litre.

  45. [I suspect that Turnbull would vote against the carbon tax (he’s already made it clear he supports the original ETS) ]
    Stop swallowing Abbott’s nonsense. The Government’s policy is an ETS, it simply has a fixed price for permits for the first three years. The amended CPRS that Turnbull agreed to had a fixed price of $20 for the first year.

    If Turnbull is asserting that this is a carbon tax as an excuse, then he has either become delusional or he is lying.

  47. [If Turnbull is asserting that this is a carbon tax as an excuse, then he has either become delusional or he is lying.]

    Or both.

  48. Sydney was a much better place to work when vehicle access was cut during APEC.

    Of course summary arrest also became easier

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