Roy Morgan has spared the government a new set of poll results this week, presumably holding over last weekend’s face-to-face results for a combined two weeks’ result to be published next week. So here’s some stuff that has accumulated during my recent period of indolence:
• The federal parliament’s Joint Standing Committee of Electoral Matters brought down its report into the 2010 federal election a fortnight ago. One noteworthy innovation is a less pompous report title, “The 2010 Federal Election: Report on the conduct of the election and related matters” replacing the traditional formulation of “Report on the conduct of the (insert year) federal election and matters related thereto”. Antony Green summarises its recommendations here; now that my holidays are over I’ll shortly get around to reviewing it and will have more to say after I’ve fully absorbed it.
• One of the majority report’s recommendations was that the federal government follow the example of New South Wales and Victoria in allowing government records such as drivers licences, vehicle registration and Year 12 school enrolments to be used to automatically update the electoral roll. However, this is opposed in the dissenting JSCEM report from the committee’s Coalition members, for reasons I do not find persuasive. Antony Green has reviewed the impact of such measures in New South Wales since their introduction last year, observing that only 12 per cent of the 70,000 people whose enrolments have been added or updated have taken the trouble to enrol the old-fashioned way for the federal electoral roll. His conclusion: “On the evidence so far, by the time of the next commonwealth election in the second half of 2013, there could be as many as 200,000 voters enrolled for NSW elections and eligible to vote at commonwealth elections who will be missing from the commonwealth roll or be enrolled at the wrong address.”
• Draft electoral redistribution boundaries have recently been published for both our nation’s territory parliaments. Antony Green surveys the results for the Northern Territory here and the Australian Capital Territory here. An ACT redistribution would normally be of minor interest, as the territory is only divided into three electorates for purposes of a regionally based system of proportional representation, but Antony asserts that in this case the changes are radical enough to be of substantial interest, and in particular to put at risk the fourth seat the Greens won at the 2008 election. For the Northern Territory, Antony has calculated new margins for each of the 25 seats, with the caveat that the enormous sitting member factors which result from pocket-sized electorates of 4000 to 5000 voters make party-based margins less reliable than usual.
• There has been much talk lately about the possibility of an incoming Coalition government calling an early double dissolution election should it meet Senate resistance from its efforts to abolish a carbon tax. Tony Abbott’s argument to those concerned about the resulting uncertainty and expense is that opposing its repeal in the Senate would be politically suicidal for a defeated Labor Party, a case pursued by Queensland legal academic James Allan in The Australian.
There was a fair bit of material I had been compiling on Western Australian matters to coincide with a looming quarterly state Newspoll, but I was caught on the hop when it was published a month earlier than I’d anticipated.
• Legislation to fix election dates for the second Saturday in every March has passed through the Legislative Council and currently awaits the rubber stamp of the lower house. The bill allows some flexibility: automatic postponement if clashing with a federal election or a week either side of Easter Saturday, or a later date under “exceptional circumstances” as agreed to by the Premier and Opposition Leader. Despite the federal election provision, the date could still cause problems for future federal governments wishing to avoid clashes federal and state campaigns, early March having been a traditionally popular time for elections (most recently in 1990, 1993 and 1996). The parliament may still be dissolved at any time up to four months prior to the scheduled election date, but any government that does so will be exposing itself to a separate Legislative Council election held on the usual day. Barring such exceptional circumstances, the next election will be held on Saturday, March 9. This will result in the current parliamentary term being the longest of any federal or state parliament in Australian history, a legacy of Labor Premier Alan Carpenter’s decision to disturb the normal electoral cycle by calling for September 6, 2008 an election that was not due until February or March of 2009.
• There have been widespread suggestions that former Channel Nine newsreader Dixie Marshall will run as the Liberal candidate for Churchlands at the next election. Marshall has recently taken up a position as the government’s chief media strategist, and her father Arthur Marshall was a Liberal member for the seats of Murray and Murray-Wellington from 1989 to 2005. Churchlands will be vacated by the retirement of independent Liz Constable, an ally of Premier Colin Barnett who has served as Education Minister in his government since its came to office. Ben Harvey of The West Australian (see below) says other names in the mix include “cricket legend Justin Langer, hospitality tsarina Kate Lamont, media personality Adrian Barich and Australian Hotels Association (WA) boss Bradley Woods”.
• Ben Harvey of The West Australian offers a further review of preselection rumours doing the rounds. This appeared in the paper’s gossip-style Inside Cover section, prompting Harvey to qualify: “If they turn out to be wrong, then please discount this column as light-hearted fluff. But if any of them are right, then remember what you are about to read is an example of world-class forensic journalism.” The most interesting suggestion contained is that Deirdre Willmott, former Chamber of Commerce and Industry director and current business manager for Andrew Forrest’s Fortescue Metals Group who won preselection before the 2008 election to succeed Colin Barnett in Cottesloe but then had to hand it back to him when he secured the party leadership, might run in the naturally conservative seat of Alfred Cove against sitting independent Janet Woollard, whose nine electoral lives are probably due to run out. Another suggestion with quite a few ifs attached is that Labor state secretary Simon Mead might succeed Eric Ripper in Belmont should Ripper lose the leadership and decide to bow out of politics. Still more qualified is an assertion that Alannah MacTiernan might be parachuted back in to assume the party leadership and stave off electoral disaster, the plausibility of which is indicated by the fact that no seat is nominated as a vehicle for her return. Harvey’s suggestion that MacTiernan might succeed Lisa Scaffidi as lord mayor and Scaffidi take over the seat of Perth was subsequently given short shrift by Scaffidi herself, who has dealt similarly with other such suggestions in the past. The rumour on which I would put the least money is that Troy Buswell will face a preselection challenge in Vasse from his wife Margaret, the former having taken up residence with the Greens-turned-independent Fremantle MP Adele Carles.
I couldn’t care less about the polls at this stage.
In Aug 2012 I will start to analyse the betting and in Jan 2013 I will start to take notice of the polls.
The polls at this stage serve 2 purposes:
1. Show the effect of media propaganda.
2. Show how Green policies are going. 😆
[MrDenmore Andrew Bolt and the instant pundits; not journalists – agenda benders. See ‘The Failed Estate’ tiny.cc/gnct0 #oslo #journalism]
sorry here is link
http://thefailedestate.blogspot.com/2011/07/agenda-benders.html
[I believe von Einem is still considered a suspect for a couple of unsolved murders.]
Yes the coppers liked him for it.
Percy was also a starter at one stage.
[Being born in a mere territory one must remember that decisions by politicians from territories can count as nothing if pollies from rool Australian’s in States turn their nose up at the legislation.]
Not so. Territories are regarded as ‘creatures of the Commonwealth’ with a plenary legislative power.
[Worked for Howard.]
Well I think Howard suffered for that “interest rates will be lower than under Labor” promise in 2007 when interest rates kept going up, including in the middle of the election campaign!
Of course it wasn’t the ONLY thing issue, but it was just another issue that made Howard seem untrustworthy and out of ideas (old).
Diogenes
[Isn’t it weird that there is a gentlemen’s agreement not to pass the yellow jersey wearer on the last leg of the Tour de France? It’s like not playing the 18th hole at the US Masters]
Nah. Considering the hell they have been through I think, in a very French way, they decided as a group it better to arrive with style and decorum rather than as a dog eat dog scrum. As someone who did some road racing as a young pup I have always been in utter complete awe of these guys . To do one of their stages would be good but to do it day after day after day is “like wow man’. Normal people after one of their stages would wake up the next day stiff and sore let alone the dreaded day after the day after sieze up but these guys go for weeks. Oh and my cycling career died when I had to choose between two sports and I was told that if I was to continue cycling I’d need to shave my legs. Not a good option to give a teenage boy !
The Greens opposing the Tasmanian logging agreement!
INSANE!
[Yes the coppers liked him for it.]
The Beaumont children, I mean.
[I hate this latest Firefox.]
So do I. Problems I haven’t had before. I use a track pad. Unstable. Inconsistent loading (from completely stop-free, to stopping every few seconds, or combo thereof … not specific to what type of video I’m loading: full film, short clips, you tube) – iView, Youtube. Grrr. Pity Safari’s soo sloow.
BUT … I can now (a) log-out of PB just by clicking “log out” without closing Firefox (b) go from log-in back to PB with a click, not by having to use “History” pull down.
Lose some, win some!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-24/pm-signs-tasmanian-forest-peace-deal/2808088
[A peace deal has been signed that will see more Tasmanian forests protected from logging.
Prime Minister Julia Gillard signed the historic Heads of Agreement with Tasmanian Premier Lara Giddings in Hobart today.]
http://www.media.tas.gov.au/release.php?id=32851
drake
[Not so. Territories are regarded as ‘creatures of the Commonwealth’ with a plenary legislative power.]
Ya mean like the NT’s euthanasia bill ? It may have had the “Commonwealth” paint job on it but the pollies that decided to “make it not so” were those from the states. Had Victoria or NSW passed such a bill it could/would not be so easily slapped down. However as it was passed by a territory legislature …..well that’s different isn’t it ?
I don’t think Anders would approve that the religious ceremony is being led by a female priest named Helga.
[It may have had the “Commonwealth” paint job on it but the pollies that decided to “make it not so” were those from the states.]
Well I don’t understand why NTers voted against statehood. If they had done that then the Commonwealth wouldn’t be about to over rule their laws.
Oh dear. I wish we’d stop trying to lead the world on climate action… Historic Polish shipyard set to ‘go green’ 😉
[GDANSK SHIPYARD, Poland (AFP) – The Gdansk Shipyard, where the Solidarity movement that ended the communist era in Poland was born, is now trying to lead another Polish revolution … in offshore wind power.
The European Union has laid out clean energy targets to be reached by its 27-members by 2020. To hit those marks Poland must break its coal addiction, which currently provides some 90 percent of the country’s electrical power.]
“The Greens opposing the Tasmanian logging agreement!
INSANE!”
No. They have a different view on this. Try and respect that they do sing from the Labor songbook because they are a different party.
[The Alþingi, Anglicised variously as Althing or Althingi, is the national parliament—literally, “(the) all-thing” (= general assembly)—of Iceland. The Althingi is the oldest parliamentary institution in the world still extant.[1] It was founded in 930 at Þingvellir, (the “assembly fields” or “Parliament Plains”), situated approximately 45 km east of what would later become the country’s capital, Reykjavík, and this event marked the beginning of the Icelandic Commonwealth. Even after Iceland’s union with Norway, the Althing still held its sessions at Þingvellir until 1799, when it was discontinued for 45 years. It was restored in 1844 and moved to Reykjavík, where it has resided ever since. The present parliament building, the Alþingishús, was built in 1881, of hewn Icelandic stone.]
the scands have a long history of democracy
the massacre in norway is just so weird
… and the interesting thing is that the current mortgage rate is 0.75% LOWER than was left to Labor in November 2007. Labor are the party of low interest rates.
A rate cut or two over the next year or so would be good for Gillard and allow her to emphasise this point.
ShowsOn
[Well I don’t understand why NTers voted against statehood.]
So did I . Arriving up that end of the swamp made me wonder even more why they did not. Mein Gott do they love “Bloody Southerners” not. There must have been one hell of a scare campaign. Then again it was before the days of the LNG plant and the way bigger Inpex developments so there would have been a real fear of being utterly economically unviable. When you took out Commonwealth civil servants and all the associated activity with the Army,Navy and Air Force there was not much left. Heck the NT big bwana opened an apartment block in 1998 as it was the first 10 storey building.
[No. They have a different view on this. Try and respect that they do sing from the Labor songbook because they are a different party.]
No. This is an important agreement that has the support of logging companies, environmentalists and unions. Try and respect that instead of singing from the outdated Green songbook.
http://greensmps.org.au/content/media-release/148m-loggers-not-one-hectare-national-park-2011
The Greens statement (not supporting, just posting for info.)
[Gordicans @Correllio shooter was pro Israeli, anti muslim and hated the left (who he shot up). Sound familiar? Bit like a Bolt demographic #auspol]
This is an astonishingly political speech for an atheist PM to make inside of a church. 😀
Diogenes,
[scorps
All that is left is the thump when they get the terminal hit!
Or in Augustus’ case when the helium balloon pops! 😀 ]
I’ve noticed that you have been enjoying this debate somewhat more than normal.
A bit like shooting fish in a barrel isn’t it? 😉
Frank, I think my post disappeared. Here is the audio:
http://www.box.net/shared/y08ot2sp87zd6p3hdoob
George,
Here is the ovvernights page:
http://blogs.abc.net.au/localradio/2011/07/insiders-10th-anniversary-.html
“The Greens opposing the Tasmanian logging agreement!”
“INSANE!”
No, just what i expect from the fruit loops and the people pulling the Gillard strings of Government
SCORPIO
[A bit like shooting fish in a barrel isn’t it? ]
No FECKING WAY. It is more like this sort of fishing 🙂 🙂 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kg4bcaIXKHU
scorps
wtf?
WTF? Why are they trying to get donations in the church? Surely donations are not exactly important today.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/nickcohen/7119058/conspiracy-theories-kill.thtml
Worth a look, the opening paragraph look off topic, but it ties back to one of the beliefs of the killer.
[Conspiracy theories kill
Nick Cohen
Saturday, 23rd July 2011
Andrew Neather of the Evening Standard was — and, for all I know, still is — a decent man. Although he worked as a speech writer for Jack Straw around the turn of the millennium, by the time I knew him he in the late 2000s, he had sensibly decided that bicycling was more interesting than politics. I could never have imagined him at the centre of a political controversy until 2009, when Neather wrote an article that sparked a conspiracy theory.]
rummel @2477,
The PM and the government have negotiated this agreement directly with stateholders in Tasmania
THe Greens oppose it.
How can it be said the greens are pulling the governments strings ?
I think this is a good result for the Government and Tasmania. Everyone seems happy in Tassie.
Who cares what the Greens think. They have every right to oppose the agreement but pragmatism puts dollars on the tables of Tassie workers not policy purity.
stateholders = stakeholders
showson
I had the same reaction as you, regarding collecting money during the memorial service
Poroti,
The federal parliament may invalidate a piece of Territory legislation within six months of its passage through the Territory legislature.
Failing that, the federal parliament need only create a law that is inconsistent with a piece of Territory legislation to render the Territory law inoperative.
The States (referring to your original post) have no ability to do either of the above to a Territory law.
Territories are created by the Commonwealth pursuant to s122 of the Constitution and the Commonwealth retains its authority to override a Territory legislature. The same cannot be said for the States whom retain those legislative powers not granted to the Commonwealth by the Constitution.
Smithe
[I think Victoris’a longest serving prisoner is Derek Percy, who was incarcerated indefinitely after being found not guilty on the grounds of insanity of the 1969 murder of a 12 year-old girl. He’s still in the joint and rapidly catching-up on Rawlins for the crown.]
Derek Percy was a member of the RAN.
Derek Percy will probably never see the light of day as it is alleged that he is a prime suspect for Beaumont children, Adl, 1966, Alan Redston, Canberra, 3 year old Simon Brook, Sydney, Wanda Beach murders, 7yo Linda Stilwell from Luna Park in Melbourne.
If he ever claims, or it is pronounced that he is sane again i believe he would be asked to answer to those allegations.
Provided his health keeps up he will surpass Rawlins easily.
[George,
Here is the ovvernights page:]
yep, I recorded it -see link above your post
[2487
george
Posted Sunday, July 24, 2011 at 8:03 pm | Permalink
George,
Here is the ovvernights page:
yep, I recorded it -see link above your post
]
Ahh,
But if you right click on the original link odf the audioa, it is downloadable.
[ketilbstensrudKetil B. Stensrud
by bow_and_arrow
BREAKING: Police confirms that Delta, the Norwegian special force, has raided an address in eastern Oslo in connection with Oslo blast.
9 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]
drake
[The federal parliament may invalidate a piece of Territory legislation within six months of its passage through the Territory legislature.]
Whoah there. The commonwealth did nothing that was not according to the letter of the law.The point is that politicians passing a law in the name the local yokels in the NT has less weight than those passed in states. Now as we are supposed to be a democracy and our pollies represent our “will” then it to me means that the “will of the people” in the NT under the constitution is worth less than that of the “will” of state peeps.
[showson
I had the same reaction as you, regarding collecting money during the memorial service]
I just thought that was sick!
Surely the service was to think about all those innocent people, people should’ve been allowed to just think about that without having those velvet scrotums with the wooden handles pushed in front of them.
the latest on the Norway trqgedy
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/jul/24/norway-attacks-live-updates
[2491
ShowsOn
Posted Sunday, July 24, 2011 at 8:13 pm | Permalink
showson
I had the same reaction as you, regarding collecting money during the memorial service
I just thought that was sick!
Surely the service was to think about all those innocent people, people should’ve been allowed to just think about that without having those velvet scrotums with the wooden handles pushed in front of them.
]
Unless of course the proceeds were going to the victims.
Showson
I am with you. Extemely poor taste
[Leroy @ 2471:
Posted Sunday, July 24, 2011 at 7:38 pm | Permalink
http://greensmps.org.au/content/media-release/148m-loggers-not-one-hectare-national-park-2011
The Greens statement (not supporting, just posting for info.)]
Even if you were to support the Greens, I don’t think it would be a capital offence.
Poroti,
Not quite sure what you mean by the ‘whoah there’, but your sentiments regarding the will of Territorians being subject to the Cth parliament – totally agree.
[But if you right click on the original link odf the audioa, it is downloadable.]
Oh 🙁 I didn’t realise – oops 😛
scorps
The barrell was about 1cm deep today. The fishies were barely alive.
smithe
[He also promised a bludger who is sadly no longer with us that he would never let the man who murdered her son free.
I have to agree with him on that one.
Geez, Dio. If they’ve done their time, they’ve done their time haven’t they?
Let’s not turn into the US of A.]
In general I agree with you but some people should never see the light of day. Ever.
Brendan O’Connor said “we aren’t going to allow 15 year olds to play R18 games”.
Um, does that mean the Government is going to assign a police officer to every household in the country to ensure that people under 18 don’t play R18 games?
Good evening all.
victoria if you are still around. I had a gorgeous risotto at lunch today (oven-roasted salmon) which has inspired me to try my hand at making risotto – something I’ve always felt too scared to try. Any secret family short-cuts which might ease me into it? 😀