Roy Morgan has spared the government a new set of poll results this week, presumably holding over last weekend’s face-to-face results for a combined two weeks’ result to be published next week. So here’s some stuff that has accumulated during my recent period of indolence:
• The federal parliament’s Joint Standing Committee of Electoral Matters brought down its report into the 2010 federal election a fortnight ago. One noteworthy innovation is a less pompous report title, “The 2010 Federal Election: Report on the conduct of the election and related matters” replacing the traditional formulation of “Report on the conduct of the (insert year) federal election and matters related thereto”. Antony Green summarises its recommendations here; now that my holidays are over I’ll shortly get around to reviewing it and will have more to say after I’ve fully absorbed it.
• One of the majority report’s recommendations was that the federal government follow the example of New South Wales and Victoria in allowing government records such as drivers licences, vehicle registration and Year 12 school enrolments to be used to automatically update the electoral roll. However, this is opposed in the dissenting JSCEM report from the committee’s Coalition members, for reasons I do not find persuasive. Antony Green has reviewed the impact of such measures in New South Wales since their introduction last year, observing that only 12 per cent of the 70,000 people whose enrolments have been added or updated have taken the trouble to enrol the old-fashioned way for the federal electoral roll. His conclusion: “On the evidence so far, by the time of the next commonwealth election in the second half of 2013, there could be as many as 200,000 voters enrolled for NSW elections and eligible to vote at commonwealth elections who will be missing from the commonwealth roll or be enrolled at the wrong address.”
• Draft electoral redistribution boundaries have recently been published for both our nation’s territory parliaments. Antony Green surveys the results for the Northern Territory here and the Australian Capital Territory here. An ACT redistribution would normally be of minor interest, as the territory is only divided into three electorates for purposes of a regionally based system of proportional representation, but Antony asserts that in this case the changes are radical enough to be of substantial interest, and in particular to put at risk the fourth seat the Greens won at the 2008 election. For the Northern Territory, Antony has calculated new margins for each of the 25 seats, with the caveat that the enormous sitting member factors which result from pocket-sized electorates of 4000 to 5000 voters make party-based margins less reliable than usual.
• There has been much talk lately about the possibility of an incoming Coalition government calling an early double dissolution election should it meet Senate resistance from its efforts to abolish a carbon tax. Tony Abbott’s argument to those concerned about the resulting uncertainty and expense is that opposing its repeal in the Senate would be politically suicidal for a defeated Labor Party, a case pursued by Queensland legal academic James Allan in The Australian.
There was a fair bit of material I had been compiling on Western Australian matters to coincide with a looming quarterly state Newspoll, but I was caught on the hop when it was published a month earlier than I’d anticipated.
• Legislation to fix election dates for the second Saturday in every March has passed through the Legislative Council and currently awaits the rubber stamp of the lower house. The bill allows some flexibility: automatic postponement if clashing with a federal election or a week either side of Easter Saturday, or a later date under “exceptional circumstances” as agreed to by the Premier and Opposition Leader. Despite the federal election provision, the date could still cause problems for future federal governments wishing to avoid clashes federal and state campaigns, early March having been a traditionally popular time for elections (most recently in 1990, 1993 and 1996). The parliament may still be dissolved at any time up to four months prior to the scheduled election date, but any government that does so will be exposing itself to a separate Legislative Council election held on the usual day. Barring such exceptional circumstances, the next election will be held on Saturday, March 9. This will result in the current parliamentary term being the longest of any federal or state parliament in Australian history, a legacy of Labor Premier Alan Carpenter’s decision to disturb the normal electoral cycle by calling for September 6, 2008 an election that was not due until February or March of 2009.
• There have been widespread suggestions that former Channel Nine newsreader Dixie Marshall will run as the Liberal candidate for Churchlands at the next election. Marshall has recently taken up a position as the government’s chief media strategist, and her father Arthur Marshall was a Liberal member for the seats of Murray and Murray-Wellington from 1989 to 2005. Churchlands will be vacated by the retirement of independent Liz Constable, an ally of Premier Colin Barnett who has served as Education Minister in his government since its came to office. Ben Harvey of The West Australian (see below) says other names in the mix include “cricket legend Justin Langer, hospitality tsarina Kate Lamont, media personality Adrian Barich and Australian Hotels Association (WA) boss Bradley Woods”.
• Ben Harvey of The West Australian offers a further review of preselection rumours doing the rounds. This appeared in the paper’s gossip-style Inside Cover section, prompting Harvey to qualify: “If they turn out to be wrong, then please discount this column as light-hearted fluff. But if any of them are right, then remember what you are about to read is an example of world-class forensic journalism.” The most interesting suggestion contained is that Deirdre Willmott, former Chamber of Commerce and Industry director and current business manager for Andrew Forrest’s Fortescue Metals Group who won preselection before the 2008 election to succeed Colin Barnett in Cottesloe but then had to hand it back to him when he secured the party leadership, might run in the naturally conservative seat of Alfred Cove against sitting independent Janet Woollard, whose nine electoral lives are probably due to run out. Another suggestion with quite a few ifs attached is that Labor state secretary Simon Mead might succeed Eric Ripper in Belmont should Ripper lose the leadership and decide to bow out of politics. Still more qualified is an assertion that Alannah MacTiernan might be parachuted back in to assume the party leadership and stave off electoral disaster, the plausibility of which is indicated by the fact that no seat is nominated as a vehicle for her return. Harvey’s suggestion that MacTiernan might succeed Lisa Scaffidi as lord mayor and Scaffidi take over the seat of Perth was subsequently given short shrift by Scaffidi herself, who has dealt similarly with other such suggestions in the past. The rumour on which I would put the least money is that Troy Buswell will face a preselection challenge in Vasse from his wife Margaret, the former having taken up residence with the Greens-turned-independent Fremantle MP Adele Carles.
Let me be the first to congratulate you William.
[So here’s some stuff that has accumulated during my recent period of indolence]
Period of indolence William? You could make it as a journalist…
Stamford plaza next sat BB want A beer?
Depression has become the last refuge of the scoundrels
Ahhh the end of Janet Woollard almost a monty now that they’ve changed the boundaries to include most of Bicton.
[• There have been widespread suggestions that former Channel Nine newsreader Dixie Marshall will run as the Liberal candidate for Churchlands at the next election. Marshall has recently taken up a position as the government’s chief media strategist, and her father Arthur Marshall was a Liberal member for the seats of Murray and Murray-Wellington from 1989 to 2005. Churchlands will be vacated by the retirement of independent Liz Constable, an ally of Premier Colin Barnett who has served as Education Minister in his government since its came to office. Ben Harvey of The West Australian (see below) says other names in the mix include “cricket legend Justin Langer, hospitality tsarina Kate Lamont, media personality Adrian Barich and Australian Hotels Association (WA) boss Bradley Woods”.]
I wonder if the recent resiginations of Simon Beaumont from 6PR to a senoir management role in the Dept of Sport and Recreation, and today’s resignation of Michael Thomposon from Ch 9 may also be politically motivated ? 🙂
As for Kate Lamont I “think” she still lives in Millendon where tyhe original Lamonts Restuarant is still located.
[Stamford plaza next sat BB want A beer?]
Why not?
You can’t miss me. I look like Cary Grant. Name the bar.
Smithe?
Are you there?
Bludgers on parade next Saturday at the Stamford Plaza, Sydney Airport.
Joe’s shout.
Even better…. an Abdul’s night? That way we can all leave sober.
[Ahhh the end of Janet Woollard almost a monty now that they’ve changed the boundaries to include most of Bicton.]
The Libs can add a quality contributor like Frank C’s most excellent member for Swan Hills.
Who runs these airlines, least I’m not with Qantas or I might never get off the ground.
[Who runs these airlines, least I’m not with Qantas or I might never get off the ground.]
Not necessarily true. They might fix the engines in time.
As for Adrian Barich – I recall he almost was preselected back in either 2001 or 2005, but was quietly dumped after he made some rather contreversial comments and his general boorish behaviour which would make Troy Buswell’s antics look like a chiorboy.
Isn’t Adrian Barich the footy commentator? Or am I thinking about someone else?
Just a historical note/question: is this the first ever omnibus PB thread NOT connected to a specific poll?
[WeWantPaul
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 9:37 pm | Permalink
Ahhh the end of Janet Woollard almost a monty now that they’ve changed the boundaries to include most of Bicton.
The Libs can add a quality contributor like Frank C’s most excellent member for Swan Hills.
Who runs these airlines, least I’m not with Qantas or I might never get off the ground.
]
Who got a nice get out of Jail free card with Ellenbrook being excised to West Swan.
Though there was talk earlier this year that the good member may be replaced prior to the next Election.
[12
confessions
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 9:40 pm | Permalink
Isn’t Adrian Barich the footy commentator? Or am I thinking about someone else?
]
Yep, one and the same – and a complete and utter boofhead.
Tony abbott: you have been verballed.
[“The point that I made last night was that the Liberal Party’s policy is to support the science, that is to say Tony Abbott’s policy is to support the science.”
Mr Abbott also presented a united front and said Mr Turnbull “absolutely opposed” the government’s carbon tax and supported the oppositions’s direct action policy.
He said he agreed with Mr Turnbull that the science had to be taken seriously.]
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/turnbull-denies-pot-shot-at-abbott-20110722-1hser.html#ixzz1SpkKKoV2
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/07/22/matters-related-thereto/comment-page-1/#comment-956277
Almost 9000 comments in the tread – something had to give I guess.
Is 9000 a record ?
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
i also got very depressed watching #MaryJo did her #HokeyPokey
7 seconds ago
[Just a historical note/question: is this the first ever omnibus PB thread NOT connected to a specific poll?]
Bilbo did make a US Election thread for the Presidentials in 2008 didnt he?
Who needs Labor’s Grocery Watch when you can have Liberal’s Grocery Snatch?
Nick Butterly doing a Joe6Pack two years out.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/opinion/post/-/blog/talkingpoint/post/62/comment/1
[Tony abbott: you have been verballed.]
Well, Abbott verballed Turnbull:
[Mr Abbott also presented a united front and said Mr Turnbull “absolutely opposed” the government’s carbon tax and supported the oppositions’s direct action policy.]
Turnbull hasn’t opposed the ETS at all, let alone “absolutely opposed” it.
The most he has done is last night he criticised the money for renewable energy projects and said some of it should go to researching carbon capture and storage.
[Bilbo did make a US Election thread for the Presidentials in 2008 didnt he?]
And exiled half of the looneys to the Gilligan’s Island
So is it Abdul’s or the Stamford Plaza next Saturday night 7.30pm?
Well the Member for Swan Hills cost Ellenbrook about 1 billion dollars with his co-promise made with Labor and his and Colin’s subsequent ‘forgetfulness’ – which I’d call culpable electoral fraud but sadly that is a positive skill in Australian politics not something that someone should resign in disgrace for. I’m sure a few buses (that I hear are basically less than making up for population growth) are much much better than a dedicated train line, and more environmentally friendly too.
How does he top that next term without introducing slavery in the valley and hills of the new, most of Ellenbrook excised, Swan Hills?
[WeWantPaul
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 9:49 pm | Permalink
Well the Member for Swan Hills cost Ellenbrook about 1 billion dollars with his co-promise made with Labor and his and Colin’s subsequent ‘forgetfulness’ – which I’d call culpable electoral fraud but sadly that is a positive skill in Australian politics not something that someone should resign in disgrace for. I’m sure a few buses (that I hear are basically less than making up for population growth) are much much better than a dedicated train line, and more environmentally friendly too.
How does he top that next term without introducing slavery in the valley and hills of the new, most of Ellenbrook excised, Swan Hills?
]
Laura Niorder in Mundaring 🙂
[Laura Niorder in Mundaring :-)]
Clearly reading crime stats is beyond him, he’ll no doubt be advocating public whipping for graffitti?
… but perhaps not shoplifting …
[31
WeWantPaul
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 9:52 pm | Permalink
Laura Niorder in Mundaring
Clearly reading crime stats is beyond him, he’ll no doubt be advocating public whipping for graffitti?
]
That was Steve Blizard’s speciality in 2005 🙂
He wanted water cannons with dye and pink prison cells.
[He said he agreed with Mr Turnbull that the science had to be taken seriously.]
He looked mighty angry and pissed off, as though he had a big splinter up his arsk, on TV news tonight sayig he agreed with silvertail.
Gaffhook
[He said he agreed with Mr Turnbull that the science had to be taken seriously.
He looked mighty angry and pissed off, as though he had a big splinter up his arsk, on TV news tonight sayig he agreed with silvertail]
But Abbott always looks like that. How can you tell if he is more pissed off than usual?
[He looked mighty angry and pissed off, as though he had a big splinter up his arsk, on TV news tonight sayig he agreed with silvertail.]
Abbott still dog whistles to the deniers. Abbott’s formulation about climate change now is that “human activity is making SOME contribution to climate change”
This is an inaccurate statement because the IPCC says that greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere FROM HUMAN ACTIVITIES is the DETERMINING FACTOR of global warming.
So as usual, Abbott has no idea what he is talking about
Night all.
Off to bed cowed by the Crow’s pathetic performance.
Another day tomorrow!
F1 – GERMANY PRACTICE 2 STARTING NOW!
Showson
Turnbull has sent a shot across the bow. Watch this space
Night BK
BB,
After what you’ve been through lately, I suggest a week at the Sir Stamford and 100 beers.
a really good political journo would be peppering Abbott with questions: when did he first know about MJF’s transgressions? Why didn’t he demand her resignation? What action does he intend to take now? Has he (as Rudd did with Belinda Neal) asked her to undergo counselling? Why did he continue to appoint her to Senate committees, if he knew that she was battling depression?
When you consider the major issues which have been made out of even minor transgressions on Labor’s part, it would be only fair.
Let alone when you consider what Liberals have been asked to resign for in the past, as well (the Liberal senator who met with Brian Burke springs to mind).
It is obvious that this was concealed so that the Libs retained their numbers in a hung Senate. In any other situation, she would have been well and truly gone months ago.
Our media should be asking questions about this. But they won’t.
Victoria
[How can you tell if he is more pissed off than usual?]
I very rarely watch TV and if i do it is maybe
newsright wing propaganda.If Toxic is on he usually has a junkyard dog grin from jugear to jugear while he is pouring bile on the guvment about something.
I happened to catch a bit tonight and he was having to agree with silvertail and he had those half closed eyes deep frown. He came across to me as – I will get you down the track when you are not looking you barsteward- look on his dial.
zoomster
Apparently MJ Fisher went to see A Robb about her depression 12 months ago
[zoomster
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 10:05 pm | Permalink
a really good political journo would be peppering Abbott with questions: when did he first know about MJF’s transgressions? Why didn’t he demand her resignation? What action does he intend to take now? Has he (as Rudd did with Belinda Neal) asked her to undergo counselling? Why did he continue to appoint her to Senate committees, if he knew that she was battling depression?
When you consider the major issues which have been made out of even minor transgressions on Labor’s part, it would be only fair.
Let alone when you consider what Liberals have been asked to resign for in the past, as well (the Liberal senator who met with Brian Burke springs to mind).
It is obvious that this was concealed so that the Libs retained their numbers in a hung Senate. In any other situation, she would have been well and truly gone months ago.
Our media should be asking questions about this. But they won’t.
]
Of course not.
There are two rules here.
One for the ALP, the other for the Libs.
Gaffhook
Excellent. Game on
[zoomster
Apparently MJ Fisher went to see A Robb about her depression 12 months ago]
vic, but she was well enough to do the #hokeypokey
Read this and weep. A classic bootstrap.
[Business leaders warn of difficult relationship with Gillard government
Qantas chairman Leigh Clifford said …everything the government was planning seemed to be about short-term gain…
…
Santos chief executive David Knox said business was craving certainty to invest.
…
Former Telstra chief Ziggy Switkowski, who is the chancellor of RMIT University, said there was a “whiff of illegitimacy” about the Labor government…
…
Mr Maxsted (Westpac CEO) said he did not believe there was enough basis for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates, but on the other hand there were not enough signals to cut them…He said everything the government was planning seemed to be about short-term gain, as opposed to what was in the long-term interests of the country.
(Surprise, surprise)… The carbon tax is a prime reason the mistrust between government and business is high. ]
So interest rates will stay where they are. Or they might go up. Or they might go down. Such insight! Gee, another FAIL for Gillard. Now the benchmark seems to be they have to go down, or Labor has stuffed it.
Ziggy wrote an anti-CT op ed the other day in… the OO. And since when has he been anything other than a fringe-dwelling illegitimate who’s sent every company he ever got his hands on near to broke?
As for certainty… ask T. Abbott about that. He’s the one who’s promised he’s gonna pull it all down if he gets in and in the meantime is busy trashing everything from retail to coal to steel, plus erasing whole cities off the map.
Qantas is pissed off that their fuel might go up (although it already has, because Europe’s putting the Carbon Squeeze on them).
And if all else fails, blame the Carbon Tax. How convenientment.
Really… where do these bootstrappers get off? They get a few tame CEOs to write articles during the week, then they run a business seminar under their banner, and we’re supposed to be surprised at the confected conclusions?
Oooooh… errrrrr. Julia’s upset the Bizoids. The grunting Rupert puts up a corporate tent and dishes out finger food tent… and we’re all supposed to be suitably scared?
Rupert is so yesterday.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/in-depth/business-leaders-warn-of-difficult-relationship-with-gillard-government/story-fn6q7nm8-1226099799454
Bushfire
one of the reasons i am so angry
this is beyond a joke now
gusface
Why more angry today then say yesterday?
gus baby, do tell
“vic, but she was well enough to do the #hokeypokey”
It is a bit of a stretch to equate that with ‘wellness’.
vic finns
[Really… where do these bootstrappers get off? They get a few tame CEOs to write articles during the week, then they run a business seminar under their banner, and we’re supposed to be surprised at the confected conclusions]
the outright bullshit dished up as commentary by our MSM
GAhhh
[The Finnigans
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 10:13 pm | Permalink
gus baby, do tell
]
Just think of a No 1 Carol Bayer Sager song 🙂
gusface
But the msm has been dishing this up for ages