Matters related thereto

Roy Morgan has spared the government a new set of poll results this week, presumably holding over last weekend’s face-to-face results for a combined two weeks’ result to be published next week. So here’s some stuff that has accumulated during my recent period of indolence:

• The federal parliament’s Joint Standing Committee of Electoral Matters brought down its report into the 2010 federal election a fortnight ago. One noteworthy innovation is a less pompous report title, “The 2010 Federal Election: Report on the conduct of the election and related matters” replacing the traditional formulation of “Report on the conduct of the (insert year) federal election and matters related thereto”. Antony Green summarises its recommendations here; now that my holidays are over I’ll shortly get around to reviewing it and will have more to say after I’ve fully absorbed it.

• One of the majority report’s recommendations was that the federal government follow the example of New South Wales and Victoria in allowing government records such as drivers licences, vehicle registration and Year 12 school enrolments to be used to automatically update the electoral roll. However, this is opposed in the dissenting JSCEM report from the committee’s Coalition members, for reasons I do not find persuasive. Antony Green has reviewed the impact of such measures in New South Wales since their introduction last year, observing that only 12 per cent of the 70,000 people whose enrolments have been added or updated have taken the trouble to enrol the old-fashioned way for the federal electoral roll. His conclusion: “On the evidence so far, by the time of the next commonwealth election in the second half of 2013, there could be as many as 200,000 voters enrolled for NSW elections and eligible to vote at commonwealth elections who will be missing from the commonwealth roll or be enrolled at the wrong address.”

• Draft electoral redistribution boundaries have recently been published for both our nation’s territory parliaments. Antony Green surveys the results for the Northern Territory here and the Australian Capital Territory here. An ACT redistribution would normally be of minor interest, as the territory is only divided into three electorates for purposes of a regionally based system of proportional representation, but Antony asserts that in this case the changes are radical enough to be of substantial interest, and in particular to put at risk the fourth seat the Greens won at the 2008 election. For the Northern Territory, Antony has calculated new margins for each of the 25 seats, with the caveat that the enormous sitting member factors which result from pocket-sized electorates of 4000 to 5000 voters make party-based margins less reliable than usual.

• There has been much talk lately about the possibility of an incoming Coalition government calling an early double dissolution election should it meet Senate resistance from its efforts to abolish a carbon tax. Tony Abbott’s argument to those concerned about the resulting uncertainty and expense is that opposing its repeal in the Senate would be politically suicidal for a defeated Labor Party, a case pursued by Queensland legal academic James Allan in The Australian.

There was a fair bit of material I had been compiling on Western Australian matters to coincide with a looming quarterly state Newspoll, but I was caught on the hop when it was published a month earlier than I’d anticipated.

• Legislation to fix election dates for the second Saturday in every March has passed through the Legislative Council and currently awaits the rubber stamp of the lower house. The bill allows some flexibility: automatic postponement if clashing with a federal election or a week either side of Easter Saturday, or a later date under “exceptional circumstances” as agreed to by the Premier and Opposition Leader. Despite the federal election provision, the date could still cause problems for future federal governments wishing to avoid clashes federal and state campaigns, early March having been a traditionally popular time for elections (most recently in 1990, 1993 and 1996). The parliament may still be dissolved at any time up to four months prior to the scheduled election date, but any government that does so will be exposing itself to a separate Legislative Council election held on the usual day. Barring such exceptional circumstances, the next election will be held on Saturday, March 9. This will result in the current parliamentary term being the longest of any federal or state parliament in Australian history, a legacy of Labor Premier Alan Carpenter’s decision to disturb the normal electoral cycle by calling for September 6, 2008 an election that was not due until February or March of 2009.

• There have been widespread suggestions that former Channel Nine newsreader Dixie Marshall will run as the Liberal candidate for Churchlands at the next election. Marshall has recently taken up a position as the government’s chief media strategist, and her father Arthur Marshall was a Liberal member for the seats of Murray and Murray-Wellington from 1989 to 2005. Churchlands will be vacated by the retirement of independent Liz Constable, an ally of Premier Colin Barnett who has served as Education Minister in his government since its came to office. Ben Harvey of The West Australian (see below) says other names in the mix include “cricket legend Justin Langer, hospitality tsarina Kate Lamont, media personality Adrian Barich and Australian Hotels Association (WA) boss Bradley Woods”.

Ben Harvey of The West Australian offers a further review of preselection rumours doing the rounds. This appeared in the paper’s gossip-style Inside Cover section, prompting Harvey to qualify: “If they turn out to be wrong, then please discount this column as light-hearted fluff. But if any of them are right, then remember what you are about to read is an example of world-class forensic journalism.” The most interesting suggestion contained is that Deirdre Willmott, former Chamber of Commerce and Industry director and current business manager for Andrew Forrest’s Fortescue Metals Group who won preselection before the 2008 election to succeed Colin Barnett in Cottesloe but then had to hand it back to him when he secured the party leadership, might run in the naturally conservative seat of Alfred Cove against sitting independent Janet Woollard, whose nine electoral lives are probably due to run out. Another suggestion with quite a few ifs attached is that Labor state secretary Simon Mead might succeed Eric Ripper in Belmont should Ripper lose the leadership and decide to bow out of politics. Still more qualified is an assertion that Alannah MacTiernan might be parachuted back in to assume the party leadership and stave off electoral disaster, the plausibility of which is indicated by the fact that no seat is nominated as a vehicle for her return. Harvey’s suggestion that MacTiernan might succeed Lisa Scaffidi as lord mayor and Scaffidi take over the seat of Perth was subsequently given short shrift by Scaffidi herself, who has dealt similarly with other such suggestions in the past. The rumour on which I would put the least money is that Troy Buswell will face a preselection challenge in Vasse from his wife Margaret, the former having taken up residence with the Greens-turned-independent Fremantle MP Adele Carles.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,657 comments on “Matters related thereto”

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  1. But what is causing MJ Fishers depression, her colleagues say it has been an issue for a while.

    Is it;
    Tones knifing of Malcolm to take the leadership.
    Tones stance on climate change, MJ is from WA, a dry state, and represents SA a dry state, is she despairing ever Tones stance.
    Does she despair over the lack of policies and direction in the coalition.
    Does she toss and turn at night at the thought of Hockey being the treasurer and Joyce the finance minister in a Abbott government.
    Does she see the poodle mince into parliament and feel like breaking into into tears.
    Is it robb telling her to cheer up.

  2. My daughter (16 at the time) was employed at a pastry shop as a casual. The week after Workchoices she went to work – she was told her pay was halved. She argued , she was sacked on the spot. Whether it was in the Act or not she came home, got angry and is now a member of Young Labor. I mentioned this to the Libs guys handing out HTV cards at the election in 2007. They said – that was wrong. Most bosses wouldn’t do that. Maybe, I said, but these guys did – because they believed they could. What could a 16 year old do about it away way. I’ve read the Act, Glen. It pays lip serve to discrimination legislation because it has to (i.e. it is bound by other legislation) . It uses words like “take into account”, and “may”. You think the ad was unfair. Good for you. My daughter would no doubt say other words. Rude ones. But each to their own view.

  3. I just want the senat inquiry

    NOW

    dammit, these scum are getting off spreading ill will and discord

    damn them to the fires of hell

    or a day in abbotts smugglers

  4. BB

    Kuntas had a whinge piece in last weekends Fin Rev – we got no money from Guvment. squeal.

    Ziggy had a piece in Kohlers Business Spectator this week – give us the same amount as NBN for nuclear power. Whinge squeal.

    Turnbull said it best – those anti AGW action are talking their book, their vested interests.

    Stuff them. They have no interest in the community at all only themselves.

    And they are all out of power and seeing vested interest being taken on and losing.

  5. [They have no interest in the community at all only themselves.]

    and accuse the Government of taking a short term view…(don’t mention the NBN, CP and ETS, MRRT…)

  6. [Crowds have flocked to waterfronts and swimming pools on the United States’ east coast and in the Midwest to try to cope with a massive heatwave that has killed at least 22 people this week.
    Longstanding records in Philadelphia and other cities may melt away today, when temperatures are expected to spike. ]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-22/massive-heat-wave-spreads-across-us/2806814

    [The National Weather Service issued excessive heat warnings for wide areas of the central and eastern US, saying the combined heat and humidity could push the “real feel” temperature to 46 degrees Celsius on Saturday.]

    How would the carbon price debate be progressing in temps of 46C, or an election held in on a Saturday in late October 2013 of 46C with the labor and green banners saying act on climate change and the nat and lib banners saying climate change is crap.

  7. [with the labor and green banners saying act on climate change and the nat and lib banners saying climate change is crap.]

    that is truly evil

    👿

    send it to labor HQ

    NOW

    the long range forecasters should be able to come up with such an event

  8. [The week after Workchoices she went to work – she was told her pay was halved. She argued , she was sacked on the spot. I mentioned this to the Libs guys handing out HTV cards at the election in 2007. They said – that was wrong. Most bosses wouldn’t do that.]

    When WorkChoices came in Tone was one of the libs urging employers to “sack those workers you have always wanted to sack because we have given you the power”.

    When Tone was questioned about the harshness of WorkChoices and the power it gave employers it setting reduced wages and conditions and the ability to sack at a whimsy Tones response was ” A bad boss is better than no boss”.

    A bad boss is better than no boss, that is Tone to the core and says it all.

  9. [charlton (post on previous thread, slightly revised)

    Fulvio Sammut 8743:

    Why not invoke the old automatism defence, Charlton. That’s a goer if you couple it to the Hokey Pokey in the Senate clip.

    Res ipsa loquitor.]

    If you are referring to insane automatism with a special verdict, this is a very rare result & prima facie she doesn’t appear to be off the planet to the requisite extent & even if she was, the defence could backfire in that she could find herself confined to a nuthouse. Moreover, counsel would need to be instructed with the consequential costs being prohibitive.

    I love it when you write in Latin, and the phrase res ipsa loquitur could be an answer to the negligence of the security guard’s actions in the car. But again, counsel would need to be briefed and more costs would follow.

    Had I been a lawyer I would have defended her thus:

    I would seek to have the matters dealt with in the Mags Court, even though the assault charge might be an indictable offence (in Qld indictable offences can be dealt with on the election of the defendant if they aren’t accompanied by a circumstance of aggravation).

    I’d seek an absolute discharge on the basis of that odd dance, the fact that she’s probably having treatment for an undisclosed mental condition, that she of very good character (?) and that she hasn’t transgressed before(?).

    But one would of course need to take full instructions from her in the first place.

    Being a Queensland resident could also prove an impediment to a thorough defence.

  10. [He said everything the government was planning seemed to be about short-term gain, as opposed to what was in the long-term interests of the country.]

    The carbon price and NBN aren’t long term planning, vision and foresight? What is wrong with those people.

  11. [When WorkChoices came in Tone was one of the libs urging employers to “sack those workers you have always wanted to sack because we have given you the power”.]

    tell that to swmbo

    sacked on day two of worstchoices

  12. gusface

    Turnbull may have to do the hokey pokey for the msm to really take notice of what he is saying.

    Abbott is going to dump their climate policy and do nothing, as ordered by his mining friends. On the other hand, Turnbull has his banker friends to please. He wants an ETS

  13. Regretfully we here complaining among ourselves will not change the total dishonest movement that is gaining momentum, to discredit, belittle and demean the Labor Govt.
    There are forces at work in this country that are too big and too powerful to be stopped, it would appear. The population is being swept along by a continuous diet of, she is a lair, prices will soar, jobs will be lost, money will be tight, you are being hoodwinked by a woman living in sin.
    I am at my wits end how to do any more than I and most here have done. Writing letters, sending emails, complaining to media, tweeting, nothing changes.
    If there is a rabbit in the hat the Govt haven’t produced, I pray they will release the little bugger sooner rather than later…otherwise it wont only be the singing Senator from Sth Australia who is suffering depression.
    I haven’t given up and the likes of Glen and his couple of mates on this blog spur me on to see them and the Abbott rabble done like a dinner, the perveyors of misery they are deserve nothing less.
    But the odd good news would assist, still smiling though 😆

    PS The Malaysian solution better be a done, set in concrete, signed and sealed, with THE UN boxes ticked, deal or I will tell Bowen exactly what I think of him. 😛

  14. [I’ve read the Act, Glen. It pays lip serve to discrimination legislation because it has to (i.e. it is bound by other legislation) . It uses words like “take into account”, and “may”. You think the ad was unfair. Good for you. My daughter would no doubt say other words. Rude ones. But each to their own view.]

    Some people abused the Act and some didnt. I was talking about the absolute fabrication of the truth in the ACTU advertising where the mother is sacked because she’s looking after her children. They used something illegal in Workchoices and said Workchoices allowed that kind of treatment it did no such thing. Gwen the Act states that it adheres to anti-discrimination legislation and especially that of family responsibilities. It cannot be more clearer than that.

    I have always said the only thing wrong with Workchoices was removing the no-disadvantage test…that probably would have saved your daughters pay and conditions as she’d have been no worse off than the Union award. I stand by that. Unfair-dismissal laws being limited does reduce unemployment because businesses has less to fear and would hire more casuals…

    [got angry and is now a member of Young Labor]

    Good on her for wanting to take part in the political process.

    Gwen the ad was based on a lie.
    It suggested a mother could be sacked even when they had family responsibilities and that it was because of Workchoices but Workchoices did not permit such actions. So the ad was a fabrication and a lie.

  15. [a really good political journo would be peppering Abbott with questions: when did he first know about MJF’s transgressions? Why didn’t he demand her resignation? What action does he intend to take now? Has he (as Rudd did with Belinda Neal) asked her to undergo counselling? Why did he continue to appoint her to Senate committees, if he knew that she was battling depression? ]

    They will most likely ask how long he’s known about the incident and the charges. But Abbott knows now that nothing ever comes of him dodging questions or walking away from news conferences when uncomfortable questions arise. I expect he’ll lie low tomorrow and by Monday it will have all blown over.

  16. david

    I propose that here on PB we stop the petty kerfuffles nad keep our collective eye on the prize

    to wit

    [I hereby disavow from any fraternal attacks

    there is only one enemy!]

    thy name is fiberal

    🙁

  17. [Its a bit odd if Ziggy is being anti-CT, given his love affair for nuclear power. Odd.]

    Nuclear Power has more than just environmental benefits it can make things too 🙂

  18. [How would the carbon price debate be progressing in temps of 46C, or an election held in on a Saturday in late October 2013 of 46C with the labor and green banners saying act on climate change and the nat and lib banners saying climate change is crap.]

    Now, there’s an argument for running the Election as late in the year as possible 🙂

  19. I’ve read the Act, Glen.

    It pays lip serve to discrimination legislation because it has to (i.e. it is bound by other legislation) .

    It uses words like “take into account”, and “may”. You think the ad was unfair. Good for you.

    My daughter would no doubt say other words. Rude ones. But each to their own view.

    Well said Gweneth. After all this time the libs still want to try to defend the undefendable.

    It is a lesson, never ever trust a liberal, particularly on IR.

    Many only turn to unions or Labor when they have trouble. When they have a bit of money they turn their backs.

    I listened to an audio book recently on Ronald Reagan and was surprised that the Democrats were the *natural party* in the US from the great depression up to about the Reagan era when it started to change.

  20. [you spout piss as champagne

    desist

    your lies are boring]

    Gusface the faux outrage is boring.

    They arent lies there from the legislation.

  21. [dave

    Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    I’ve read the Act, Glen.

    It pays lip serve to discrimination legislation because it has to (i.e. it is bound by other legislation) .

    It uses words like “take into account”, and “may”. You think the ad was unfair. Good for you.

    My daughter would no doubt say other words. Rude ones. But each to their own view.

    Well said Gweneth. After all this time the libs still want to try to defend the undefendable.

    It is a lesson, never ever trust a liberal, particularly on IR.

    Many only turn to unions or Labor when they have trouble. When they have a bit of money they turn their backs.

    I listened to an audio book recently on Ronald Reagan and was surprised that the Democrats were the *natural party* in the US from the great depression up to about the Reagan era when it started to change.
    ]

    Just like people in WA flocked to Labor after Court and Keireth screwed them with their brand of IR Reform, now the cashed Bogans, rich on tge fopundations of Gallop and Carpenter have now flocked to Barnett, and are only now starting to realise they were conned.

  22. I have always said the only thing wrong with Workchoices was removing the no-disadvantage test…

    Thats like saying the only thing wrong with the Titanic is that it had a giant hole in the side.

    The lack of a disadavantage test essentially meant there was nothing to protect an employee beyond the terms in the AWA. ie, no minimum wage, no leave, no nothing. In other words: “Employee, go into thy salt mine and work until you die. I meanwhile will happily get fat and buy myself another top hat an ivory back scratcher”

  23. glen

    as you well know

    swmbo was sacked on the second day of worstchoices

    no reason was needed, the employer could and did have the power of summary dismissal, without recourse

    btw

    the kids were all under 10

    dont.spout.shite

  24. [Thats like saying the only thing wrong with the Titanic is that it had a giant hole in the side.]

    I know it suits your argument but scrapping the test wasnt the be all and end all of Workchoices.

  25. [I know it suits your argument but scrapping the test wasnt the be all and end all of Workchoices.]
    If the no disadvantage test was left in, then WTF is the point of AWAs?

    People may as well stay on an EBA and enjoy better pay and conditions.

  26. [fatty has bought in an even more draconian version of worstchoices in nsw

    only 8 conditions are protected]

    gus, i am angry about that too

  27. I know it suits your argument but scrapping the test wasnt the be all and end all of Workchoices.

    Creating a working poor underclass was.

  28. Gusface…

    [no reason was needed, the employer could and did have the power of summary dismissal, without recourse]

    Not true there was still grounds for unfair dismissal and what occurred in the ACTU ad was one of those.

    I don’t want to get into a personal abuse flinging match with you gusface.

    [If the no disadvantage test was left in, then WTF is the point of AWAs?]

    Flexibility
    Ability to have pay that went above and beyond the Union award.

    Gillard has brought us back to pre-Keating days with draconian and inflexible IR arrangements…when the Tories get back in they’ll bring back AWAs with the no-disadvantage test and the sky wont fall in.

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