Matters related thereto

Roy Morgan has spared the government a new set of poll results this week, presumably holding over last weekend’s face-to-face results for a combined two weeks’ result to be published next week. So here’s some stuff that has accumulated during my recent period of indolence:

• The federal parliament’s Joint Standing Committee of Electoral Matters brought down its report into the 2010 federal election a fortnight ago. One noteworthy innovation is a less pompous report title, “The 2010 Federal Election: Report on the conduct of the election and related matters” replacing the traditional formulation of “Report on the conduct of the (insert year) federal election and matters related thereto”. Antony Green summarises its recommendations here; now that my holidays are over I’ll shortly get around to reviewing it and will have more to say after I’ve fully absorbed it.

• One of the majority report’s recommendations was that the federal government follow the example of New South Wales and Victoria in allowing government records such as drivers licences, vehicle registration and Year 12 school enrolments to be used to automatically update the electoral roll. However, this is opposed in the dissenting JSCEM report from the committee’s Coalition members, for reasons I do not find persuasive. Antony Green has reviewed the impact of such measures in New South Wales since their introduction last year, observing that only 12 per cent of the 70,000 people whose enrolments have been added or updated have taken the trouble to enrol the old-fashioned way for the federal electoral roll. His conclusion: “On the evidence so far, by the time of the next commonwealth election in the second half of 2013, there could be as many as 200,000 voters enrolled for NSW elections and eligible to vote at commonwealth elections who will be missing from the commonwealth roll or be enrolled at the wrong address.”

• Draft electoral redistribution boundaries have recently been published for both our nation’s territory parliaments. Antony Green surveys the results for the Northern Territory here and the Australian Capital Territory here. An ACT redistribution would normally be of minor interest, as the territory is only divided into three electorates for purposes of a regionally based system of proportional representation, but Antony asserts that in this case the changes are radical enough to be of substantial interest, and in particular to put at risk the fourth seat the Greens won at the 2008 election. For the Northern Territory, Antony has calculated new margins for each of the 25 seats, with the caveat that the enormous sitting member factors which result from pocket-sized electorates of 4000 to 5000 voters make party-based margins less reliable than usual.

• There has been much talk lately about the possibility of an incoming Coalition government calling an early double dissolution election should it meet Senate resistance from its efforts to abolish a carbon tax. Tony Abbott’s argument to those concerned about the resulting uncertainty and expense is that opposing its repeal in the Senate would be politically suicidal for a defeated Labor Party, a case pursued by Queensland legal academic James Allan in The Australian.

There was a fair bit of material I had been compiling on Western Australian matters to coincide with a looming quarterly state Newspoll, but I was caught on the hop when it was published a month earlier than I’d anticipated.

• Legislation to fix election dates for the second Saturday in every March has passed through the Legislative Council and currently awaits the rubber stamp of the lower house. The bill allows some flexibility: automatic postponement if clashing with a federal election or a week either side of Easter Saturday, or a later date under “exceptional circumstances” as agreed to by the Premier and Opposition Leader. Despite the federal election provision, the date could still cause problems for future federal governments wishing to avoid clashes federal and state campaigns, early March having been a traditionally popular time for elections (most recently in 1990, 1993 and 1996). The parliament may still be dissolved at any time up to four months prior to the scheduled election date, but any government that does so will be exposing itself to a separate Legislative Council election held on the usual day. Barring such exceptional circumstances, the next election will be held on Saturday, March 9. This will result in the current parliamentary term being the longest of any federal or state parliament in Australian history, a legacy of Labor Premier Alan Carpenter’s decision to disturb the normal electoral cycle by calling for September 6, 2008 an election that was not due until February or March of 2009.

• There have been widespread suggestions that former Channel Nine newsreader Dixie Marshall will run as the Liberal candidate for Churchlands at the next election. Marshall has recently taken up a position as the government’s chief media strategist, and her father Arthur Marshall was a Liberal member for the seats of Murray and Murray-Wellington from 1989 to 2005. Churchlands will be vacated by the retirement of independent Liz Constable, an ally of Premier Colin Barnett who has served as Education Minister in his government since its came to office. Ben Harvey of The West Australian (see below) says other names in the mix include “cricket legend Justin Langer, hospitality tsarina Kate Lamont, media personality Adrian Barich and Australian Hotels Association (WA) boss Bradley Woods”.

Ben Harvey of The West Australian offers a further review of preselection rumours doing the rounds. This appeared in the paper’s gossip-style Inside Cover section, prompting Harvey to qualify: “If they turn out to be wrong, then please discount this column as light-hearted fluff. But if any of them are right, then remember what you are about to read is an example of world-class forensic journalism.” The most interesting suggestion contained is that Deirdre Willmott, former Chamber of Commerce and Industry director and current business manager for Andrew Forrest’s Fortescue Metals Group who won preselection before the 2008 election to succeed Colin Barnett in Cottesloe but then had to hand it back to him when he secured the party leadership, might run in the naturally conservative seat of Alfred Cove against sitting independent Janet Woollard, whose nine electoral lives are probably due to run out. Another suggestion with quite a few ifs attached is that Labor state secretary Simon Mead might succeed Eric Ripper in Belmont should Ripper lose the leadership and decide to bow out of politics. Still more qualified is an assertion that Alannah MacTiernan might be parachuted back in to assume the party leadership and stave off electoral disaster, the plausibility of which is indicated by the fact that no seat is nominated as a vehicle for her return. Harvey’s suggestion that MacTiernan might succeed Lisa Scaffidi as lord mayor and Scaffidi take over the seat of Perth was subsequently given short shrift by Scaffidi herself, who has dealt similarly with other such suggestions in the past. The rumour on which I would put the least money is that Troy Buswell will face a preselection challenge in Vasse from his wife Margaret, the former having taken up residence with the Greens-turned-independent Fremantle MP Adele Carles.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,657 comments on “Matters related thereto”

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  1. Just on these new business ads on the Carbon Tax, didn’t the advertising body refuse to run the Getup ads against Harvey Norman because they couldn’t establish that they were telling the truth? So How is it that big business gets let thru with BS ads of their own???

  2. fess

    [Any secret family short-cuts which might ease me into it? ]

    The three main things
    1. Use arborio rice (vialone nano or carnaroli are better though)
    2. Homemade or low salt stock
    3. Have the mixture at a gentle simmer and stir almost constantly

  3. drake

    [Poroti,

    Not quite sure what you mean by the ‘whoah there’,]

    A misundermistanding I am sure. Not being a legal eagle chap I am sure that I misinterpretate the true meaning of many legal terms. Anyway, it is all good and them NT chaps and chapesses were silly to reject statehood .

  4. confessions

    dio has given some excellent advice re risotto!

    Dateline on SBS right now re globial warmmg and Murdoch.

  5. Dario,

    What’s the history behind the non-competitive final stage of the TdF?

    Only really got interested this year and last. Fascinating race steeped in history.

  6. Stutchbury is a fool!

    He says that having a privacy tort would be an attack on free speech.

    Someone may want to tell him that Australia doesn’t have free speech protected in our constitution, except in a very narrow sense.

  7. Dio:

    Thanks!

    The chef came to our table after lunch and had a drink with us. He said he can ‘flip’ his risotto into the air and have it land back in the saucepan in a single stream. (!!!) Who can do that?! I am in awe of these people who have such skills.

  8. [Not being a legal eagle chap I am sure that I misinterpretate the true meaning of many legal terms.]

    Poroti,

    Those terms exist to make people like me seem much smarter than we really are.

    A big con-job I’m afraid.

  9. gusface,

    [scorps

    wtf? ]

    Good to see that I can at last catch you out with my patrticular code. You catch me too often.

    Dio loves easy targets to hammer mercilously. He’s hit the jackpot tonight with the furious digging of JohD who seems to have struck an old shaft and disappeared without trace now. 😉

  10. Gotta like the professionalism of the ABC:

    [Prime Minister Julia Gillard signed the historic heads of agreement with Tasmanian Premier Lara Giddings in Hobart today.

    “We have put cold hard cash on the table to get it done,” Ms Gillard said.

    “This is a very significant step forward in a process that is aimed at trying to end the conflict that has caused so much conflict, for so many, for decades in this State,” Tasmanian Premier Lara Giddings said.

    Ms Giddings has until the end of the year to verify and protect 430,000 hectares of native forest from logging, which will be placed in an informal reserve immediately.

    “As Prime Minister I’ve always said I’m all about jobs and this is about supporting jobs in Tasmania. But it is also about securing an environmental outcome,” Ms Giddings said.

    The deal has been forced on the industry because its markets have collapsed. ]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-24/pm-signs-historice-peace-deal/2808132

  11. drake

    [Those terms exist to make people like me seem much smarter than we really are.]

    And damned good luck to you. If peeps are happy to pay the money then who are you to argue ? 🙂

  12. A three part tweet by Ketil B. Stensrud from Norway (joined together)
    [Pulled over in my car to tweet this.. BREAKING: Breivik’s attorney has, in a radio interview with NRK, confirmed that his client…

    ..belongs to an international network of right-wing extremists. He’s planned his actions for a long time, and has requested the hearing ..

    ..on Monday to be open for world media, so that he can ‘reveal all’. Strong suspicion of OSL/Utøya operation being funded by intnl network]
    His tweetstream located here – http://bit.ly/o8efNk

  13. [“As Prime Minister I’ve always said I’m all about jobs and this is about supporting jobs in Tasmania. But it is also about securing an environmental outcome,” Ms Giddings said. ]

    Blimey, I thought the ousting of Kevin Rudd and replacement with Julia was a blindingly quick change-over, but this one takes the cake.

    Have they announced the new premier of Tasmania yet? 😉

  14. poroti:

    I’ve met Alain and his wife Elisabeth. They grow their truffles at Toodyay of all places, which is hot and dry, most unlike the French climate.

    Having said that though, Toodyay apparently gets frosts which is said to be good for truffle growth.

  15. So those Loose Box truffles are grown in WA?

    I thought Tassie was the only place growing them. Are they the black winter truffles?

    One year I’ll have to go to Perth for that truffles gala. They are my favourite food. 😀

  16. drake

    [I’m only a student at this stage. A sparky by trade.]

    OMFG !!! Crikey Bloke/Blokess the money that a “mere” sparky can earn in W.A. up north is truly envy inducing as my sparky nephew recently discovered. As a former BLF chappie we still hate youse guys. So go for it and you will be well rewarded. I mean you will be able to earn at least as much as Tony Abbott for a start !! 🙂

  17. It’s slow at the moment so:

    Ninemsn is currently conducting one of its unscientific polls.

    The question is:

    ‘Is Cadel Evans’ Tour win the greatest ever sporting success by an Aussie?’

    The result are fairly even:

    Yes – 32,040

    No – 32,705.

    Although no doubt a great achievement, my vote would go to Margaret Court-Smith:

    62 Grand Slam wins: 24 singles; 19 doubles; and, 19 mixed doubles.

    She is the greatest ever winner of Grand Slam tennis titles – male or female.

    Next on the list I would place Heather McKay who won 16 consecutive British Open squash titles and 2 world titles and was undefeated between 1962 & 1979.

    Cadel Evans has a lot of catching up to do in my view compared to Smith & McKay, though I will give him his due.

  18. [Prime Minister Julia Gillard signed the historic heads of agreement with Tasmanian Premier Lara Giddings in Hobart today.

    “We have put cold hard cash on the table to get it done,” Ms Gillard said.

    “This is a very significant step forward in a process that is aimed at trying to end the conflict that has caused so much conflict, for so many, for decades in this State,” Tasmanian Premier Lara Giddings said]]

    so so good, this path started with BB so many years ago, in the franklin river.

    i have not agreed with all that has happened over the years.

    but this is a very good conclusion, we can now start to heal the wrongs and the rights of all the past, and move on to a new sustainable future.

    i do hope more is put in by private enterprise in the the tourism area. and we can get if of the red tape and the bureaucracy and the nay sayers
    there has been for years a suggestion of a modern chair lift to mount wellington and bringing back the rail ways for tourism i do hope all this happens,

    when i read our pm was here doing the negotiating i new it would happen

    thanks julia

  19. [rishane
    Posted Sunday, July 24, 2011 at 8:41 pm | Permalink
    Gotta like the professionalism of the ABC:

    Prime Minister Julia Gillard signed the historic heads of agreement with Tasmanian Premier Lara Giddings in Hobart today.]

    when i was visiting our son i was reading his I pad, yes checking in on you all and there was something about the greens not acception the package.

    is this what the top remark is about.

  20. Dio:

    The Loose Box truffles are grown in Toodyay. Alain and Elisabeth took the advice of Manjimup Truffle Co. (THE biggest truffle growing company in WA) when they set up their operation.

    There are also truffles being grown in south coastal WA. As I understand it however, the frost is what truffles need, which they don’t get on the south coast of the state. For this reason the Faberges might have more success in Toodyay, despite the dry hot summers.

    In the end, we’ll see.

  21. Diogenes

    [I thought Tassie was the only place growing them. Are they the black winter truffles?

    One year I’ll have to go to Perth for that truffles gala. They are my favourite food. ]

    I can only say read the menu and weep. The companion wine list is pretty damn fine as well.

    http://www.loosebox.com.au/cms/default.asp

    The trufles are locally produced. We even have a festival. I be there next week !!
    http://www.mundaringtrufflefestival.com/Pages/default.aspx

  22. drake

    [As a former BLF chappie we still hate youse guys.

    You’re a good man Poroti – I like you.]

    Well back in the day before sparkies became CUB’s ( Cashed Up Bogans) they were all CFMEU types or as we called them “Can’t Fecking Make Em Work Unuion”

  23. Numbnuts is reported to be in Townsville tonight and no doubt it will be a private dinner with party faithful and security on the door.

    No announcements where he will visit tomorrow so i don’t know where to go to say Giday and rattle off Boerwars list of his achievements.

    He will no doubt show up somewhere and tell us all that Castle hill will become an island when the sea levels rise because of Global warming or the cost of electricity will rise on Magnetic Island because the dugongs are eating all the seagrass in Cleveland Bay before they have to pay a carbon tax on it.

    If i hear where he is going i will go for a look.

    Oh for the good old days when there were free for alls at the local town hall and you knew who and when they would be there.

  24. [No announcements where he will visit tomorrow so i don’t know where to go to say Giday and rattle off Boerwars list of his achievements.]
    At least get within earshot of him and shout out “dickhead”. He’ll be expecting it.

  25. [I can only say read the menu and weep]

    If you are into truffles Dio, then plan your trip to the Loose Box to coincide with the Mundaring Truffle Festival – in the past Alain had a special truffle degustation menu for the event, and I’m sure he still does. The Loose Box have gorgeous accommodation as well, so you can indulge and stay the night.

  26. Gaffhook

    If you had the opportunity, You would do an excellent job of putting Abbott back in his box, and I would gladly pay to see that!

  27. [Dio loves easy targets to hammer mercilously. He’s hit the jackpot tonight with the furious digging of JohD who seems to have struck an old shaft and disappeared without trace now.]

    Not disappeared, I just can’t see why I should argue a mysterious ‘point’ and deny you your ‘victory’. You know, like shooting fish in a 1cm barrel.

    As far as I can make out, you think I don’t get that this guy is a ‘Christian Conservative’, and that it is why he did it. The argument actually morphed from ‘that is why he did it’ – for which there is no evidence, to ‘it contributed to his mindset’ which is hard to argue with since anything, and everything, probably contributed to his mindset. I find it hard to swallow ‘OBL was out to make the world rabid Islamist’ though.That one takes the cake.

    Am I missing the point?

    That aside, seems like the guy is a self-described ‘cultural Conservative’. What is a “cultural Conservative’? A bit of a puzzle. From what I can make out, it seems to be a conservative that is liberal otherwise, except when it comes to ‘Culture”and immigrants that subvert it. He is a ‘Liberal Conservative’. hard to place exactly.

    I can’t for the life of me understand how, if he is supposed to be loony right-wing religious christian wing-nut, he hates homophobes, they are supposed to love homophobes.

    Mmmmm …

    this from his manifesto

    [“We, the free indigenous peoples of Europe, hereby declare a pre-emptive war on all cultural Marxist/multiculturalist elites of Western Europe. … We know who you are, where you live and we are coming for you,” the document said. “We are in the process of flagging every single multculturalist traitor in Western Europe. You will be punished for your treasonous acts against Europe and Europeans.”]

    Nothing about godless heathens there. Sounds like something he plagiarized from the Atheist Andrew Bolts blog. A lot of what he says could come from Andrew Bolts blog.

    Have a look

    it is a small list (over 1,000) of his posts translated into English.

  28. I seriously doubt Anders Behring even regularly attended Church. He does not talk religion at all, except when he ranting about Islam.

  29. fess and poroti

    We’re looking at going to Broome and the Kimberleys next year. I’ll try and persuade Mrs D to let me go to the Truffle Dinner on the way. She’s not a truffle fan at all though.

  30. gus

    The whole thing is really weird; it’s like there were two crimes.

    One being the bomb, carefully planned and normally involving a few people, and then the spree killing which is almost always a solo crime of someone who has snapped and lost it completely.

  31. For goodness sake, does one have to justify, verify, and provide authority for any self held belief expressed on this blog?

    JohD is stating his view, not proving a mathematical theory.

  32. Yes Victoria, just noticed it.

    This guy moves in very creepy circles. This is no right-wing religious nut. Even the casualties figures are horrifying. It takes an icy cold person to kill so many people in cold blood.

  33. [For goodness sake, does one have to justify, verify, and provide authority for any self held belief expressed on this blog?]

    Fulvio, no but it helps.

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