Matters related thereto

Roy Morgan has spared the government a new set of poll results this week, presumably holding over last weekend’s face-to-face results for a combined two weeks’ result to be published next week. So here’s some stuff that has accumulated during my recent period of indolence:

• The federal parliament’s Joint Standing Committee of Electoral Matters brought down its report into the 2010 federal election a fortnight ago. One noteworthy innovation is a less pompous report title, “The 2010 Federal Election: Report on the conduct of the election and related matters” replacing the traditional formulation of “Report on the conduct of the (insert year) federal election and matters related thereto”. Antony Green summarises its recommendations here; now that my holidays are over I’ll shortly get around to reviewing it and will have more to say after I’ve fully absorbed it.

• One of the majority report’s recommendations was that the federal government follow the example of New South Wales and Victoria in allowing government records such as drivers licences, vehicle registration and Year 12 school enrolments to be used to automatically update the electoral roll. However, this is opposed in the dissenting JSCEM report from the committee’s Coalition members, for reasons I do not find persuasive. Antony Green has reviewed the impact of such measures in New South Wales since their introduction last year, observing that only 12 per cent of the 70,000 people whose enrolments have been added or updated have taken the trouble to enrol the old-fashioned way for the federal electoral roll. His conclusion: “On the evidence so far, by the time of the next commonwealth election in the second half of 2013, there could be as many as 200,000 voters enrolled for NSW elections and eligible to vote at commonwealth elections who will be missing from the commonwealth roll or be enrolled at the wrong address.”

• Draft electoral redistribution boundaries have recently been published for both our nation’s territory parliaments. Antony Green surveys the results for the Northern Territory here and the Australian Capital Territory here. An ACT redistribution would normally be of minor interest, as the territory is only divided into three electorates for purposes of a regionally based system of proportional representation, but Antony asserts that in this case the changes are radical enough to be of substantial interest, and in particular to put at risk the fourth seat the Greens won at the 2008 election. For the Northern Territory, Antony has calculated new margins for each of the 25 seats, with the caveat that the enormous sitting member factors which result from pocket-sized electorates of 4000 to 5000 voters make party-based margins less reliable than usual.

• There has been much talk lately about the possibility of an incoming Coalition government calling an early double dissolution election should it meet Senate resistance from its efforts to abolish a carbon tax. Tony Abbott’s argument to those concerned about the resulting uncertainty and expense is that opposing its repeal in the Senate would be politically suicidal for a defeated Labor Party, a case pursued by Queensland legal academic James Allan in The Australian.

There was a fair bit of material I had been compiling on Western Australian matters to coincide with a looming quarterly state Newspoll, but I was caught on the hop when it was published a month earlier than I’d anticipated.

• Legislation to fix election dates for the second Saturday in every March has passed through the Legislative Council and currently awaits the rubber stamp of the lower house. The bill allows some flexibility: automatic postponement if clashing with a federal election or a week either side of Easter Saturday, or a later date under “exceptional circumstances” as agreed to by the Premier and Opposition Leader. Despite the federal election provision, the date could still cause problems for future federal governments wishing to avoid clashes federal and state campaigns, early March having been a traditionally popular time for elections (most recently in 1990, 1993 and 1996). The parliament may still be dissolved at any time up to four months prior to the scheduled election date, but any government that does so will be exposing itself to a separate Legislative Council election held on the usual day. Barring such exceptional circumstances, the next election will be held on Saturday, March 9. This will result in the current parliamentary term being the longest of any federal or state parliament in Australian history, a legacy of Labor Premier Alan Carpenter’s decision to disturb the normal electoral cycle by calling for September 6, 2008 an election that was not due until February or March of 2009.

• There have been widespread suggestions that former Channel Nine newsreader Dixie Marshall will run as the Liberal candidate for Churchlands at the next election. Marshall has recently taken up a position as the government’s chief media strategist, and her father Arthur Marshall was a Liberal member for the seats of Murray and Murray-Wellington from 1989 to 2005. Churchlands will be vacated by the retirement of independent Liz Constable, an ally of Premier Colin Barnett who has served as Education Minister in his government since its came to office. Ben Harvey of The West Australian (see below) says other names in the mix include “cricket legend Justin Langer, hospitality tsarina Kate Lamont, media personality Adrian Barich and Australian Hotels Association (WA) boss Bradley Woods”.

• Ben Harvey of The West Australian offers a further review of preselection rumours doing the rounds. This appeared in the paper’s gossip-style Inside Cover section, prompting Harvey to qualify: “If they turn out to be wrong, then please discount this column as light-hearted fluff. But if any of them are right, then remember what you are about to read is an example of world-class forensic journalism.” The most interesting suggestion contained is that Deirdre Willmott, former Chamber of Commerce and Industry director and current business manager for Andrew Forrest’s Fortescue Metals Group who won preselection before the 2008 election to succeed Colin Barnett in Cottesloe but then had to hand it back to him when he secured the party leadership, might run in the naturally conservative seat of Alfred Cove against sitting independent Janet Woollard, whose nine electoral lives are probably due to run out. Another suggestion with quite a few ifs attached is that Labor state secretary Simon Mead might succeed Eric Ripper in Belmont should Ripper lose the leadership and decide to bow out of politics. Still more qualified is an assertion that Alannah MacTiernan might be parachuted back in to assume the party leadership and stave off electoral disaster, the plausibility of which is indicated by the fact that no seat is nominated as a vehicle for her return. Harvey’s suggestion that MacTiernan might succeed Lisa Scaffidi as lord mayor and Scaffidi take over the seat of Perth was subsequently given short shrift by Scaffidi herself, who has dealt similarly with other such suggestions in the past. The rumour on which I would put the least money is that Troy Buswell will face a preselection challenge in Vasse from his wife Margaret, the former having taken up residence with the Greens-turned-independent Fremantle MP Adele Carles.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,657 comments on “Matters related thereto”

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  1. [You’re no fun at all, Scarpat.]

    Fulvio,

    heh heh! I should have completed the sentence “no but it helps to understand the person’s point of view”.

  4. [link to support or not this supposition?]

    I have not read one reference to Christianity and I have been scanning his post for the past half hour or so.

    [religion is a different beast in the scands

    not sure where this is heading or going?]

    I don’t think it is religious, I think it is a mixture of Nuvo Racism (aka Islamophobia), neo-con nuttery, and ‘cultural conservatism.’ He hates social democratic liberals as ‘cultural traitors’. He sees neo-Nazi, EDL type extremist as quite separate, albeit possibly allies, to his cultural warrior movement. He is undecided about them because he suspects they hate Jews, and Homosexuals.

  5. admittedly dated

    but way back in the mists of time i spent some time in the scands

    there is a definite undercurrent of white supremacists

    normally they are fringe dwellers

    somehow this dont smack of fringe dwelling

  6. Australian Government . Convergence review
    Review of Media and communications Policy
    Consultation stage
    ” A review is currently underway into media and communications policy including and local content, protection of community standards, media diversity and spectrum allocation..
    to read more
    http://www.dbcde.gov.au/convergence

    Well well, here comes the fix. This is a disgrace and a clear step in ending our democracy if the left cant handle criticism of their policies. We used to hear a lot about JWH, yet the left have stepped out of his shadow and now will now aim to shut any debate in the name of the left being the only right voice that should be expressed. This blatant attack to fix the media and lift the stocks of Gillard and Bob Brown. I hope Australia sees through this bastard act and the ALP continues to drop to in the polls until they are booted out at the next election.

  9. JonD
    [Am I missing the point? ]
    Completely. You should when the moderator intervenes to tell you that you are misrepresenting what everyone else posts that you’ve gone way off course.

  11. gus

    His manifesto has plenty of religious references.

    [Thomas Hegghammer, a terrorism specialist at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment, said the manifesto bears an eerie resemblance to those of Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda leaders, though from a Christian rather than a Muslim point of view. Like Mr. Breivik’s manuscript, the major Qaeda declarations have detailed accounts of the Crusades, a pronounced sense of historical grievance and calls for apocalyptic warfare to defeat the religious and cultural enemy.]

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/25/world/europe/25oslo.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1

  12. Gusface, I have been saying for ages that he is not religious. Now I think he is not religious at all. Not a churchgoer at all. Does not give religion much thought at all, except on his facebook profile – probably because it was simply a blank spot that he could not resist filling in.

    He hated the government with the the passion we have seen of late.

  15. [Completely. You should when the moderator intervenes to tell you that you are misrepresenting what everyone else posts that you’ve gone way off course.]

    I am sorry if I misrepresented your posts. Who are you again?

  16. from the New York Times write up of Cadel;

    [At his news conference, Evans praised his teammates, his trainers, his engineers and his longtime coach, Aldo Sassi, who died of cancer last December. Evans began to tear up as he discussed Sassi. He then learned that the Australian government might declare Monday a national holiday in his honor. ]

    any truth in this?

  18. Also the Moderator is entitled to his opinion, but I only responded to the issues as I saw it. I am still mystified as to what they were trying to say; except that this was a religious nutter.

    I disagreed, and disagree. If he is religious, then I am the Pope.

  19. Well well, here comes the fix. This is a disgrace and a clear step in ending our democracy if the left cant handle criticism of their policies. We used to hear a lot about JWH, yet the left have stepped out of his shadow and now will now aim to shut any debate in the name of the left being the only right voice that should be expressed. This blatant attack to fix the media and lift the stocks of Gillard and Bob Brown. I hope Australia sees through this bastard act and the ALP continues to drop to in the polls until they are booted out at the next election.

    Any situation where one propiertor controlls 70% of the media, is not good for neither freedom of expression nor democracy

  20. Rumbo old mate

    What do ya say when they do what Fiji did and give Roo three months to divest all of his Australian media. wouldn’t that be peaceful?

    Mind you there will be nothing left of his empire afeter the UK and US have kicked his arsk in to san quentin.

    Just have to get their ABC back on charter then and all will be hunky dory.

  23. Just the right word !!!!
    _______________
    If you are looking for the right word to describe the “cultural right-wing warrior”who commited the massacre in Norway,you can’t do better than a good old-fashioned adjective friom the 1930-40ies

    try “FASCIST “…it’s just the word !

  24. [from the New York Times write up of Cadel;

    At his news conference, Evans praised his teammates, his trainers, his engineers and his longtime coach, Aldo Sassi, who died of cancer last December. Evans began to tear up as he discussed Sassi. He then learned that the Australian government might declare Monday a national holiday in his honor.

    any truth in this?]

    It was reported this way in the French news.

  25. as Tony Abbot said this week ” we have been well served by the Australian media” – we in this context clearly meaning the non-progressive side

  28. [gus

    His manifesto has plenty of religious references.]
    WHAT are you talking about! Al Qaeda has NOTHING to do with religion at all!

    They are just sad that don’t have iPads. It’s all about iPad envy.

  32. [try “FASCIST “…it’s just the word !]

    from his posts

    [Those who dare to criticize multiculturalism (and supporting cultural conservative views) are now branded as fascists / Nazis / racists. The problem is that the doctrines which form the basis of political correctness will not or can allow alternative ideas and are thus very intolerant.]

    His posts are filled with these references. He usually uses it the same way; to try and turn it into a form of left projection. But his extreme intolerance of views other than his own is definitely Fascism. By ‘extreme Intolerance’ I mean “murderous Intolerance’.

  33. [Just when I think the situation in America can’t get worse, it does. If this is true, ugh: ]
    I don’t understand the point of that.

    The fact is some constitutional lawyers believe that the existing debt limit set by congress may be unconstitutional, which would enable the President to just increase the debt limit without an approval.

  36. [WHAT are you talking about! Al Qaeda has NOTHING to do with religion at all!

    They are just sad that don’t have iPads. It’s all about iPad envy.]

    Go away shows on; you are like a very broken record.

  42. Newspoll Federal (1209 voters)

    Two Party Preferred: ALP 44 (+2) L/NP 56 (-2)
    Primary Votes: ALP 29 (+2) L/NP 47 (-2) GRN 13 (+1)
    Gillard: Approval 32 (+2) Disapproval 59 (0)
    Abbott: Approval 39 (-3) Disapproval 52 (+3)
    Preferred PM: Gillard 40 (+2) Abbott 41 (-2)
    Price on Carbon: Support 36 (+6) Opposed 53 (-6)

  43. Gillard approval 32 (+2)
    Gillard disapproval 59 (unchanged)

    Abbott approval 39 (-3)
    Abbott disapproval 52 (+3)

  44. [Go away shows on; you are like a very broken record.]
    Go away Joh D; you are like a very broken person posting nonsense to Pollbludger.

  47. glory ris

    just correcting back to the norm

    meself feels its 47/53

    pretty cool numbers considering the relentless shite thrown at Labor and Prime Minister Gillard

  49. [For goodness sake, does one have to justify, verify, and provide authority for any self held belief expressed on this blog?]

    Yes – on A4 in black type (preferably with a 2cm margin).

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