Keen followers of the comments threads will be aware I’ve had my eye off the ball a bit over the past day or so, and hence missed the always enjoyable quarterly Newspoll geographic and demographic breakdowns. These point to swings against Labor of 4.5 per cent in New South Wales, 3.3 per cent in Victoria, 2.9 per cent in Queensland, 3.2 per cent in South Australia and 1.6 per cent in Western Australia – although since they cover the past three months, they are a little more flattering to Labor than the polling picture as it stands right now. More from Peter Brent at Mumble and Simon Jackman at Stanford University.
victoria
oh i agree, and im quite comfortable waiting two years to the next election. Abbott will never be replaced as long a gillard is PM because Gillard is incapable of looking like a PM let alone acting like a PM while abbott sits on the opposing chair.
Despite the dreams of the left to have Turncoat take over the ibs, it will never happen. It would be like putting Kev back in a PM, it makes you feel dirty……..
[He said that tomorrow morning he will ask every question to Tony Burke about Opposition policy, giving him free rein to let it rip.]
Good for him!
vic
Pissed off for certain – and I don’t think he’ll let go of it in a hurry.
ABC Radio Podcast.
This was an interesting discussion which, none-the-less totally ignored the role of the media in the ALP governments problems with communicating it’s message. The general consensus was that the government is not leading the electorates with its vision for the future or highlighting its achievements. I agree with the analysis of the early days of the Rudd government, where the initiative was lost in reviews and inquiries but I understand that Rudd did not want to be seen as another Whitlam gov’t which made great advances but crashed and burned. (Well, was crashed and burned by the conservatives!) The conclusion of the panel was gloomy, that the gov’t may have a slim chance to be re-elected if the Prime Minister and her Ministers get their communication and leadership act together.
But how in hell did they have a conversation about the communication abilities of this government WITHOUT ONCE MENTIONING THE MEDIA? (Beats head against brick wall.)
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/saturdayextra/stories/2011/3257974.htm
rummel
Good luck with that. I see the cards and they tell me something very different
I think this process will accelerate especially if they can produce people like Bob Brown to be their public face. Labor is making it very easy for the Greens by vacating the centre and centre left ground and especially under Gillard who (her back room men) is hell bent on making Labor a light-Liberal party.
If the current process is continued then I can see the Greens becoming becoming the equal of Labor in time.
Labor is in need of a reset, it spent 10 years in opposition, got back into power on the back of an ‘outsider’, then the factional creepy crawlies couldn’t resist destroying the party again chasing their own agenda with their own front woman. Labor needs its arse spanked in the next poll in the hope that it might make itself into something better, but I doubt it.
Best thing would be for any genuine Laborites within the party to break into a separate party, in coalition with existing Labor, but contest as a separate party at the next election. Or the Greens using the high profile they now have to increase their public acceptance as being more than just a ‘green’ party and take over the ground left by Labor.
Victoria,
Good for you, Abbott has been getting replaced for years now and it has not happend. Libs are dead meat if they replace Abbott who has reduced the PM to a rump of useless spin, who is only being held up by Bob Brown who in return is pulling all the strings of Government.
Victoria,
Good for you, Abbott has been getting replaced for years now and it has not happend. Libs are dead meat if they replace Abbott who has reduced the PM to a rump of useless spin, who is only being held up by Bob Brown who in return is pulling all the strings of Government.
BK – loved pVO pointing out this morning that Abbott stops Turnbull from speaking. I wished he’d stop Morrison and Hockey as well.
I was waiting for Troy to point out that Abbott only does interviews with his pet poodles and avoids the hard ones, but he didn’t.
Agree with you on Troy – he’s really hyped up at the moment.
Since we are sharing fave Carlton bits. I will go with this….
“Adding to the din on the sidelines is Melbourne’s mysterious Institute of Public Affairs.
This a right-wing propaganda unit which floridly describes itself as ”an independent, non-profit public policy think tank, dedicated to preserving and strengthening the foundations of economic and political freedom”.
Independent of what, exactly? Where does the money come from to support its hordes of directors, senior fellows, research fellows, emeritus fellows and even adjunct fellows all furiously scribbling away at their reactionary tracts?
Perhaps the IPA’s executive director, John Roskam, could demonstrate his commitment to public debate by revealing who his sponsors are.”
Roskam was caught out on radio by a listener who wondered where the “Public” part of the Institute of Public Affairs, came in, since there was no opportunity, on their site, for feedback or comments about the opinions expressed.
rummel
You are entitled to your opinion, but Abbott reminds me of the story the Tortoise and the Hare. well you know how that turned out.
joe2
Roskam is a hypocritical partisan hack!
BH
Are you referring to PVO on contrarians, or was PVO on another program this morning?
I think Labor would do much better in the polls if they invited Bob Brown to be PM. The guy actually acts and talks like a PM though and if he keeps getting the media exposure he now is some will begin to think that he is PM. However I guess the Indies and MSM would go ballistic. a shame
Victoria,
[My mum reckons JBishop sounds like a second rate soapie actress when she speaks!]
Your mum is kinder than I am 🙂
[Good for you, Abbott has been getting replaced for years now and it has not happend. Libs are dead meat if they replace Abbott who has reduced the PM to a rump of useless spin, who is only being held up by Bob Brown who in return is pulling all the strings of Government.]
Rummel reminds me of the dog in the old HMV logo.
Head slightly askance, ears up, trying to make sense out of what’s coming from the Liberal squawk box.
Give him a bone someone.
janice2
She is with repect to JBishop, but I cant say the same regarding Abbott!!
Geraldine Doogue is a little nugget of gold on ABC Radio at the weekend….did a really interesting piece this morning on the decline of high street retailing in the increasing presence of on-line shopping…My oh…who is an expert shopper…agreed with everything her guests were saying…and she should know…
Well worth getting hold of the podcast….
[Beware the promises not properly costed ]
[But they are already promising quite a lot.
There’s the paid parental leave scheme, which (once you factor in the business levy designed to pay for it, and the company tax cut designed to avoid a backlash over the business levy, and the abolition of the less expensive Labor scheme which would be wound in to the more generous Coalition offering) would cost a bit more than $2 billion a year.
There’s the direct action plan to address climate change which would cost $3.2 billion in the first four years. (Most observers think the Coalition will need a lot more to reach its 5 per cent emissions reduction target but Tony Abbott has insisted he will not be spending any more, which raises big questions about his climate policy but provides certainty for his financial commitment.)
There’s the abolition of the mining tax, at a cost of $11 billion. And there’s $420 million in additional mental health promises.
And now we know the Coalition will also be promising income tax cuts of as-yet-undetermined generosity on top of all of this. We also know that to be even a tiny bit generous, tax cuts cost a lot.]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/beware-the-promises-not-properly-costed-20110701-1gv3q.html
This is giant hole just waiting to swallow up whoever is tasked with the job of explaining it all. No wonder Hockey is looking unhappy these days!
BB
You are too funny!!
TP
As much as i can not stand Bob and his eco crazies, He would be the most PM looking leaders in the building at the moment. No wonder the greens are tearing votes of labor by the thousands.
confessions
It is obvious even to us that the coalition policies have a gigantic black hole
[Independent federal MP Rob Oakeshott says he will do all in his power to avoid the National Broadband Network remaining a government monopoly.
Mr Oakeshott, the chairman of the federal parliament’s Joint Standing Committee on the NBN, said such an outcome would be a worst-case scenario that should be “avoided at all costs”.
“If a monopoly is actually what we end up with, I think we have failed,” he said.
On a rare occasion when two of the sides in Australian politics expressed agreement on any aspect of the NBN, Mr Oakeshott’s views were shared by opposition communications and broadband spokesman Malcolm Turnbull.]
http://thewall.com.au/topics/31557-oakeshott-and-turnbull-agree-on-nbn
confessions
It is amazing that the coalition are still holding it together. Abbott and his front bench of Hockey, Turnbull, JBishop, Robb, Dutton, Hunt, Mirabella, Truss and Morrison dont even like each other!
victoria – PVO on Saturday Agenda this morning but he had the same blokes with him as yesterday arvo. Chris Kenny and Troy Bramston.
Kenny wasn’t happy yesterday when PVO made a few comments about Abbott’s twists and turns on carbon pricing and even less so today with PVO talking about his column in the OO.
Have to go out – try not to get too many pages ahead you lot! pretty please.
BH
Thanks for the clarification.
So I am right to suggest that Chris Kenny may be experiencing some indigestion today?
victoria:
If Abbott can order Turnbull be silenced then I wish he’d do the same for Morrison!
[“She’s going to go down the sewer,” the Macquarie Radio breakfast host said, pointing to a poster of Greens leader Bob Brown disappearing into a toilet with the slogan “if it’s brown, send it down”.
“Go away Julia,” Mr Jones said.
“Get out of our lives, we don’t want you here. We don’t want to hear you and we don’t want to see you.”]
Compare the ugliness and the hate of the anti CT mob with the peacefulness of the pro carbon price rallies.
victoria 174
Its amazing what a partie will put up with when they hate the government more then anything. Reminds me of labor in 07 with a gutsy little fighter named Kev who every one hated but they happily rode his coat tails into government then knifed him in the back.
confessions
Turnbull must be quietly stewing. not a good thing. 🙂
of course Abbott doesnt want Morrison to shut up. It suits him politically to have Morrison ranting. Interestingly, the trip to Malaysia wasnt heavily reported. hmmm.
rummel
I for one want Abbott to remain leader. He will be Labor’s best asset with time.
“Compare the ugliness and the hate of the anti CT mob with the peacefulness of the pro carbon price rallies.”
No i will compare it to the riots during JWH term where the left went ferral.
confessions
Nasty pieces of work. Jones has not succeeded it getting a revolt. He and his mob have failed
rummel
JWH should be tried for war crimes. That is the least that should be done!!
Victoria,
yep, your most likely right with that prediction. I doubt he will crash and burn until Gillard is removed. There is to much hate out there for the PM and it covers any mistake Abbott does.
Abbott is Gillard’s best chance of winning. Gillard is Abbott’s best chance of winning. Kinda like two B grade sides out on the field.
rummel
I detect no hate. In fact in my neck of the woods, things are going nicely along. We have jobs, money to spend. Retail is very competitive. Clothing and shoes have never been cheaper. Friends and family are doing renovations and buying property. Interest rates are lower than a few years ago. Our standard of living has actually improved.
Red meat is getting expensive. Cant figure out why considering there is so much cattle about.
All the schools in my locality have been upgraded with new classrooms. Things have never been better.
TP
Any one but Team Turnbull for the leader of the libs. Im am still damaged from his stint last time when he was a pompos nob and got murdered by Labor. They were dark days… Good old Gillard, things are better with her leadership leading the way.
Don’t know why Abbott is out there talking so much.
You would think his best tactic when the government is struggling and with poor leadership, would be to keep a little quiet, let the minions do the most of the talking.
Abbott’s biggest danger is over doing the negativity which will end up defining him and doing him in. Plus every time he talks he digs another pot hole for himself. Its amazing the govt is struggling so badly against him for so long.
The same goes with Gillard, she would be better to go quiet and let all the minions speak for her. People have stopped listening to her and her style is such that the more she is exposed the deeper the hole she digs.
Sigh…Australian political environment has degenerated into competing mediocrities.
Victoria @ 188
Pretty much the same in my neck of the woods. So, where are whingers paradises that are polled time and time again?
Victoria
I think you just explained the polls.
Not like that in Qld at all. Work (especially professional work) very hard to come by. Retail and housing sectors down, down, down and food, petrol, electricity public transport up, up up.
TP
Abbott is out there because he fell for the spin that he needed to sell a positive message. Gillard is so bad that an empty vessel looks positive, but tony wanted to look positive and out there with policy , so the started on IR, what god dam idiots.
Rummel @ 180:
[Its amazing what a partie will put up with when they hate the government more then anything. Reminds me of labor in 07 with a gutsy little fighter named Kev who every one hated but they happily rode his coat tails into government then knifed him in the back.]
Rummy old boy, the winder’s on the side, that thing with the handle. Crank up that gramaphone son.
daretotread,
[Not like that in Qld at all. Work (especially professional work) very hard to come by. Retail and housing sectors down, down, down and food, petrol, electricity public transport up, up up.]
How much of that would have to do with the natural disasters?
Bushfire,
[Rummy old boy, the winder’s on the side, that thing with the handle. Crank up that gramaphone son.]
:D:
dretotread
i am happy for housing prices to go down. We have the highest house prices in the world.
My electricity bill has gone up, but not that much considering there are five tvs, three lap tops and one main computer running all the time. Also, five mobile phones and one ipad being recharged, as well as four ipods. Do you get the picture. With respect to retail. Here in Australia, we still pay too much for goods compared to the rest of the world. I said it before. Our leasehold costs are too high. Landlords are greedy
[It is obvious even to us that the coalition policies have a gigantic black hole]
maybe abbott can hide turbull in one .
mickt
Lol!
mickt
Although Hockey would do a better job of covering up the hole. 🙂