Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Keen followers of the comments threads will be aware I’ve had my eye off the ball a bit over the past day or so, and hence missed the always enjoyable quarterly Newspoll geographic and demographic breakdowns. These point to swings against Labor of 4.5 per cent in New South Wales, 3.3 per cent in Victoria, 2.9 per cent in Queensland, 3.2 per cent in South Australia and 1.6 per cent in Western Australia – although since they cover the past three months, they are a little more flattering to Labor than the polling picture as it stands right now. More from Peter Brent at Mumble and Simon Jackman at Stanford University.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,636 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  1. Gusface

    sadly
    some who suckled from the teat of whitlam now would bring down a similarly advanced and enlightened gvt
    the worst enemies are sometimes not the fibs,but the ingrates

    I know. Under Whitlam Labor created a whole generation of educated monsters, many of whom have developed the power of independent, abstract thought and know the meaning of ‘advanced’ and ‘enlightened’. What was he thinking?

  2. I am not familiar with the this breakdown but the undecideds seem very high across many of the questions and thus imply to me that the figures are quite soft. Am I right or wrong to make that assumption?

  3. Gusface

    ?? Are you making a comment on the long-term benefits of the Whitlam years that we enjoy today? If so I’ve already said that.

  4. Going back to Dan Gulberry at #5184 on the last thread:

    [However your comment on “not being able to see what abbo had done wrong”.]

    What I meant was I hadn’t seen what Abbo had done at all. It didn’t occur to me to take offence at the name – it’s not how the racial slur is usually spelt. Perhaps it’s short for “Abbott”, or something. Anyway he has been banned for the time being, although he would have gotten away with a warning if I was around to keep an eye on things.

  5. James J I think that when Bob Brown goes the Greens will also have some serious work to do to maintain their support. Much of their credibility comes from his leadership in my view. Not a criticism or an attack – just an observation. I am happy to be wrong on this.

  6. Markets should be built to charge for social ills and sponsor economic good.

    Which means it is impossible for you to support the Liberal’s current climate change policy, and that you should vote Labor at the next election.

    Well there are a couple of things there.
    1)The most effective policy on carbon will influence how I vote.
    2)There will be other issues such as health, education etc that will also influence my vote.

  7. [What I meant was I hadn’t seen what Abbo had done at all. It didn’t occur to me to take offence at the name – it’s not how the racial slur is usually spelt. Perhaps it’s short for “Abbott”, or something. Anyway he has been banned for the time being, although he would have gotten away with a warning if I was around to keep an eye on things.]

    William

    I didn’t like the crude way he spoke to one of our regular female posters. They deserve more respect than that.

  8. Gusface

    just your self centred approach
    sadly you are a failure to the cause
    except your own

    What on earth are you talking about?

  9. Erm, William,

    If you read my post further I said I originally thought that the “abbo” name was a take on “abbott”, and that was not what was I found offensive. It was his/her posts themselves that were offensive to me and a few others as well.

  10. OhMike is madder than ever tonight with a ridiculous proposal to bribe a few ALP MPs to resign from parliament “to get rid of this terrible govt”.

    Any laywers around? Wouldn’t this be illegal?

  11. Mr Bowe, I think you will find if you go back a comment made by the said commenter about ‘Bitches’ and ‘More things about ‘ you guessed it Gillard and ‘Bitches’. I think Lizzie made reference to his posts as being mysogynistic but that particular interchange that I recall hasn’t been mentioned in the recent commentary. “Odious” was a word used. I have been trying to find it but haven’t yet.

  12. Darn
    I believe you are talking about the expression ‘take your hand off it’. If so, I recall both used the same expression, Abbo second.

  13. [1)The most effective policy on carbon will influence how I vote.]
    Well it should, because pricing carbon is the most important economic reform since floating the dollar and cutting tariffs.
    [2)There will be other issues such as health, education etc that will also influence my vote.]
    If the government is handing out more and more money from a tax and spend carbon abatement program, where does it get extra cash to spend on health and education?

    Pricing carbon is an extremely important policy, because without it the government will end up wasting billions of dollars on abatement projects that would be better spent on essential services.

    How does it make sense for the Liberals to attack the Building Education Revolution program, but effectively propose that a similar program is the best way to deal with climate change?

    If you support economic rationalism, the only rational thing to do is to reject the Liberals climate policy that is based on socialist tax and spend lunacy by voting Labor at the next election.

  14. bemused @ 21 I think Antony Green’s article I posted on the last thread explains the hysteria. The window to get rid of the Green Senate by double dissolution is quite small. I think this is driving the strategy. Not sure that the logic is sound but I think the Tea Party success has given legs to the idea that you can manufacture a ‘grassroots revolt’ to tinker with democratic ‘situations’ that don’t suit the vested interests. And they will try anything.

  15. Something of interest
    Both Male and Female support for Labor fell by 4% but overall support for Labor fell 6%. Its too late for me to think on this.

  16. [Darn
    I believe you are talking about the expression ‘take your hand off it’. If so, I recall both used the same expression, Abbo second.]

    Yes, that’s what I was referring to jv. I was unaware anyone else had used the expression. I’m no prude and say much worse than that to my friends in private, but this is a public blog and I think we all should be careful the way we express ourselves.

  17. bemused@21

    OhMike is madder than ever tonight with a ridiculous proposal to bribe a few ALP MPs to resign from parliament “to get rid of this terrible govt”.

    Any laywers around? Wouldn’t this be illegal?

    Yes it would. He would say he isn’t serious of course, but he’d better be careful, especially if one of the idiot listeners tries it on. Encouraging offences is also a category of offence itself.

  18. ifonly

    [Something of interest
    Both Male and Female support for Labor fell by 4% but overall support for Labor fell 6%. Its too late for me to think on this.]

    That just made me confused. You said it was 4%, then 6%…

    I must be tired.

  19. [OhMike is madder than ever tonight with a ridiculous proposal to bribe a few ALP MPs to resign from parliament “to get rid of this terrible govt”.

    Any laywers around? Wouldn’t this be illegal?]
    I’m not a lawyer but inducing an MP to resign or not contest an election would ordinarily be referred to the Privileges Committee.

  20. jv @ 30

    Yes, the idiot listener, Lyn, who also called in to the previous program and Mike got ehr to call in to his has set up an email address – oneaustralia@ optusnet.com.au if I recall correctly.

    Of course the idiot Mike thinks it is a great idea.

  21. Darn

    I agree – it isn’t an expression I use either, but no blame can be apportioned in that instance, I reckon.

  22. Well I may just bail at this point – feeling weary. Some good Gough memories to sleep by. He absolutely changed my family’s life for the better and we will never forget that or forgive the slime that shafted the Labor Party at the time. The same slime that is shafting the Labor Party today. Same slime different faces – same vested interests.

    Ciao PBs…

  23. Pricing carbon is an extremely important policy, because without it the government will end up wasting billions of dollars on abatement projects

    Until the details are known, I don’t think you can identify the level of waste, I simply won’t commit till I know. For example, the Coalition may be spending $10b on abatement that would achieve the same effect with $9b in a directly charging carbon production but this has to be weighed against a policy that might include spending $5b on “New Technology” (pet Green projects).

    In general, the government tends to be inefficient in picking winners as seen with solar panels.

    So I will ask questions like
    What is the cost of direct action to get to 5% reduction
    What is the ultimate carbon cost with an ETS to get to 5% (not starting price)

    Of course you might consider pricing carbon as extremely important, I might give a higher importance to for mental health or carers.

  24. ifonly,

    [Until the details are known, I don’t think you can identify the level of waste, I simply won’t commit till I know.]

    I find that a little hard to digest given your comments regarding climate science (yes, I’m trying to be polite here) on the last thread.

    Seems to me if you can’t see the science, you aren’t going to be convinced by the good policy.

  25. ifonly

    Of course you might consider pricing carbon as extremely important, I might give a higher importance to for mental health or carers.

    That’s a false dilemma of the cheapest kind. It doesn’t help mental health patients for the world climate to become a repetitive circulating maelstrom of extreme weather; for food sources to become problematic; or for unimaginable waves of refugees to be unsettled around the world as huge regions become unliveable.

  26. Gweneth re: cake decorating

    Unfortunately the annual reports of TAFE for Late 80s are not on-line
    All I can say is that you can see the “establishment” (equivalent full time teacher establishment) of teachers in the school of Home Science.

    The drop in numbers lead to Home Science being unable to stand alone and was swallowed by the School of Food (which was the pastry cooks, chefs etc).
    I worked in TAFE doing modeling with the merged entity.

    After changes, Commercial

  27. [Of course you might consider pricing carbon as extremely important, I might give a higher importance to for mental health or carers.]

    If your scheme is budget neutral there is no conflict. If your scheme raises taxes or reduces spending somewhere, then there is a problem.

  28. Now Julia’s REALLY in trouble.

    Ita’s gunning for her:

    [PUBLISHING doyenne Ita Buttrose has ripped into Julia Gillard’s leadership – or lack thereof – unleashing a harsh critique of the PM’s time in office and challenging her to call an election.

    “I would suggest that the PM’s drop in the polls has nothing to do with her clothes, her hair, her relationship with Tim or the kick in the pants she gave Kevin Rudd,” Buttrose told The Daily Telegraph.

    “Australians are looking for strong leadership and, because we have a minority government with Labor continually having to capitulate to the Greens and independents, we aren’t getting it.

    “A true leader would be prepared to put her leadership on the line. The PM should tell the Greens and the independents the party’s over and call an election.”]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/ita-buttrose-blasts-prime-minister-julia-gillard/story-e6freuzr-1226085926340

    Might as well hang up the boots JG.

  29. [ OhMike is madder than ever tonight with a ridiculous proposal to bribe a few ALP MPs to resign from parliament “to get rid of this terrible govt”.

    Any laywers around? Wouldn’t this be illegal? ]

    Hope someone’s recording it…

  30. A true leader should tell Ita she’s being an ill informed bitch, and stick the boot into the Telegraph.. but hey.. Julia’s more polite than me 🙂

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