Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Keen followers of the comments threads will be aware I’ve had my eye off the ball a bit over the past day or so, and hence missed the always enjoyable quarterly Newspoll geographic and demographic breakdowns. These point to swings against Labor of 4.5 per cent in New South Wales, 3.3 per cent in Victoria, 2.9 per cent in Queensland, 3.2 per cent in South Australia and 1.6 per cent in Western Australia – although since they cover the past three months, they are a little more flattering to Labor than the polling picture as it stands right now. More from Peter Brent at Mumble and Simon Jackman at Stanford University.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,636 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  1. A few tidbits from an article highlighting Abbotts war on Economists

    [
    Meanwhile, The Saturday Age has learned that brown coal-fired power plants such as Hazelwood and Yallourn in the Latrobe Valley will be invited to tender to be closed under the government’s carbon price deal to be announced next weekend. The multi-party committee has agreed that some revenue from the tax will be used to buy and shut down coal-fired plants.

    It is understood a tender would be held to buy about 2000 megawatts of the nation’s ”dirtiest” coal power capacity – likely to equate to one large Victorian plant and a second smaller plant, possibly Playford in South Australia.

    The successful plants would be closed over an extended period, likely to be a decade, and are expected to be replaced by new gas-fired power plants, which have about a third of the emissions of brown coal.
    ]

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/carbon-price-abbott-at-odds-with-economists-20110701-1gvcx.html#ixzz1QtRy3XMG

  5. [
    BOB Brown has a vision of the Australian Greens supplanting Labor as one of Australia’s mainstream political parties in the decades ahead
    ]

    Tell him he’s dreamin!

  9. philmour
    Another good contribution from Mike Carleton. I loved this bit –
    [Then, just last weekend, the poor chap believed he had Tony Abbott’s support as federal president of the Liberal Party, only to find the stuntman voting, almost ostentatiously, for his rival, Alan Stockdale. Gobsmacked again. He must have missed that famous confession to Kerry O’Brien, that you should always get an Abbott promise in writing.]
    It looks like Bluey’s efforts are being recognised.

  10. Good morning, Bludgers.

    Following last night’s comments, greener ones might find this interesting Extreme weather link ‘can no longer be ignored’ Scientists to end 20-year reluctance with study into global warming and exceptional weather events

    I’m more than a bit sceptical myself as, over the last two or so decades, scientific research underpinning the work of archeologists and historians has established links (inc through contemporary documents) between major geothermal events (esp volcanic eruptions) and extreme weather events after the eruptions – eg Egypt’s plagues & Exodus with Thera/Santorini, the Arthurian Wasteland with an earlier Krakatoa explosion – so one would expect them after the major submarine quake which created the Boxing Day Tsunami, later eruptions (inc of sea-bed volcanoes) and plate readjustment which has yet to settle down.

    That said, here it is, scientific ambivalence and all! A “watch this space” issue that’s sure to create some major scientific brawls – research’s true lifeblood!

    [Climate researchers from Britain, the United States and other parts of the world have formed a new international alliance that aims to investigate exceptional weather events to see whether they can be attributable to global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions.

    They believe that it is no longer plausible merely to claim that extreme weather is “consistent” with climate change. Instead, they intend to assess each unusual event in terms of the probability that it has been exacerbated or even caused by the global temperature increase seen over the past century.

    The move is likely to be highly controversial because the science of “climate attribution” is still in the early stages of development and so is likely to be pounced on by climate “sceptics” who question any link between industrial emissions of carbon dioxide and rises in global average temperatures.]

  11. [ BOB Brown has a vision of the Australian Greens supplanting Labor as one of Australia’s mainstream political parties in the decades ahead.

    As the Greens leader celebrates 25 years as a parliamentarian and holding the balance of power in both houses of parliament for the first time, with a record 10 Greens MPs, he envisages a much broader political future than the passage of the carbon and mining taxes in the months ahead. “I believe the Greens as a party are in a similar position to what the Labor Party was 100 years ago,” Senator Brown told The Weekend Australian in an interview. ]

    And, why shouldn’t the leader of a political party have an aim (or dream) for the future of his/her party. IMHO further success for the Greens would moderate their more outrageous views and aims, it would make other parties look to what is increasing their success and also moderate their own views.

    The great benefit from having more political parties is that extreme aims and views have to be moderated. The need to negotiate with other parties means we have less jerk from one extreme to the other, it calls for sensible negotiation like we are seeing with Labor, Greens and Independants at the moment. The factions have to keep their heads in, which is what the LNP can’t do and which will ultimately show with their loss at the next election.

    When a government has shown that it can negotiate a tricky relationship, bring in numerous nation changing policies and continue the lifestyles of the majority of the population then the population will reward it at the REAL poll. In an election campaign the parties will be judged on ‘we brought you this, we gave you this and we promise that we will continue to give to you by, etc’, saying ‘those others are bad’ will not cut it.

    While not all the public have reach intelligence maturity, they do know which side their bread is buttered.

  12. Agree, BK. Carlton’s tongue must have been in danger of holing his cheek as he wrote!
    My fave bit:

    Believing now that his leader’s duplicity has released him from some vow of silence, Reith says he will publicly campaign for industrial relations reform, perhaps setting up yet another Melbourne ”think tank” to advance the cause.

    We know what this means: WorkChoices Mk2. Reform, in Reithspeak, is code for the crushing of trade unions and the industrial courts, abolition of the workers’ right to bargain, sweated labour in the dark satanic mills, 13-year-olds toiling 60 hours a week down coal mines, a return to blackbirding on the Queensland cane fields.

    The political puzzle is, why now]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/wars-a-poor-choice-in-tranquil-times-20110701-1gv6i.html

  13. Good morning BK:

    Wow! PvO has absolutely dumped a bucket on Abbott.

    Obviously not impressed with his performance at all.

  16. BK:

    Yes, I watched it. For the first time in a long time I was actually able to sit through an entire episode of Contrarians.

  17. Gus
    Normally I am a bit of a fan but I think last night you were as angry as Frank (a little less rude) but I expect better from you.

    OK calling people 2 faced or class traitors is a touch more erudite than discussing nappies, but IT IS NO LESS RUDE.

    JV has a right to be a “disillusioned lefty” and it is not 2 faced or class traitorous.

    There is no similarity between the Gillard (or even Rudd) government and the Whitlam government.

    In the late 60s- 70s there was a mood for change hence Whitlam, Dunstan etc. After the dismissal Labor has been scared of its own shadow and the only “reforms” it has made have been those sanctioned by big business and free market economists – eg Keating reforms.

    This may be fine pragmatically and even wise (possibly hmmmm), but it is unfair and unworthy of you to call people 2 faced who are in reality sticking firmly to the same position they held in 1974.

  18. http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/trash-talking-tony-abbott-loath-to-face-the-cost/story-e6frezz0-1226085859881

    Is this part of ‘Peak Abbott”?

    Not until late 2012, I hope.

    But I guess it depends on whether any Liberal (Turnbull, Hockey, J Bishop etc) challenges him this far out from an election, and whether, now 1 July has passed (Greens will only toughen Government MRRT, plain-packaged tobacco, Carbon Pricing & ETS, NBN & Media etc legislation, not moderate it) the Biggest Media Boss will give Abbott more rope (until the Australia Network contract is awarded) or rein him in.

  19. [The political puzzle is, why now]

    Would it be that it is, and has always been, at the crux of the campaign to get rid of the Labor Govt and once again hold the reins of power in order to further the interests of big business, by relegating the working population back to their god-given position of being grateful for the crumbs that fall off the richman’s table?

    Abbott was supposed to cause the downfall of this minority government quickly. He has failed in his efforts to cause PM Gillard to crumble and now there is the push to put the real agenda on the table while the populace is still fractured and blinded by Abbott’s relentless negative and deceitful campaign.

  20. I have been predicting Peak Abbott for ages, especially since his brain freeze. The man is basically bonkers. Probably lazy also (except on a bike).

    I am amazed he is still there. Mind you Peter Reith is a gift to labor. Who paid him? (JOKE ALERT)

  21. janice2

    Spot on.

    Abbott has failed, and the party are now ready to adopt their next strategy. It is going to be interesting to see how this plays out. I have always said that the coalition are a house of cards. Will not take much for it to fall.

  22. Mega George:

    [Labor’s poor leadership does not explain the sour mood; it has accentuated it but did not generate it. Otherwise, the government would surely have detected a comfortable and relaxed electorate in its focus groups and claimed credit. It found the reverse, that the pre-GFC concerns about cost of living and congestion that unseated John Howard’s government had returned by the second half of 2009.

    The critical error Labor made then was to stop talking about the economy. This fed the electorate’s unease. What the government should have done was offer an explanation for why public expectations had to be lower in the recovery to secure another round of prosperity for the future, and to build a buffer for a double dip in the global economy. This harder truth would have been more plausible than Kevin Rudd’s attempts to change the national conversation three times a week.]

    So true! Thank heavens the PM has decided to eschew the Rudd spinning in favour of substantive announcements and not having to get your face in the news every minute of every day.

    [The Opposition Leader has no intention of correcting the record on behalf of the government because he knows only one word in politics today: “No.”]

    [The Abbott approach entrenches the problem of unreal public expectations by offering a return to the Howard-era handout machine. Middle-class welfare worked in the GFC because the cash payments meant Australia got its stimulus out the door faster than almost all others.

    But it makes people mean in recovery because they assume government will always be there for them to pay the bills.]

    Was it BB who has said this many times before?
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/commentary/stimulus-package-earns-big-tick/story-e6frgd0x-1226085911201

  23. Showson & Cudchewer
    You are probably both tucked into bed at present.

    Thanks for the video at
    http://www.fool-me-once.com/2010/09/temperatures-are-below-projections.html

    I’d encourage many to view it. Of course in part it is a critic of Monckton and I am not suggesting he is correct.

    Can I address points from about 2/3rds of the way through.

    Look at the graph where he takes satellite data then averages it for 3 years using a red line. You can see that the red line is approaching the bottom of the pale blue range. For the sake of argument, lets say a movement of the red line outside the blue range is “tipping point”.

    So, he had data extending into 2010 but only took his red line into mid 2009 and then says “if we were to include the 2010 data there would be an obvious move up” Well, yes but because it is like a needle, in a 3 year average, the impact is not that large, particulalrly as the previous peak falls just outside the 3 years of the current peak. The net uptick in the red line is the difference bewteen those two peaks averaged over 3 years.

    So, what happens if we extend the 3 year average to include 2010….matter of fact, why not use the current data all the way to May 2011. I’ll post the data below but since I am using the graph you supplied I will put the answer in that context.

    Look at the monthly data. See the uptick in the middle of the low in 2008. Now see the height of the red line. That is the height of the line now except, obviously it is at May 2011….hang on, doesn’t that mean it is about to move outside the blue range?

    For those of you who want to check for themselves, below is the data for one of the two satellites, UAH (they are both pretty much the same and I try to keep posts short).
    Copy
    Paste into excel
    Text to columns
    Make into a single column
    add a column for 3 year moving average
    Do a graph

    Jan-98 0.48 Jan-01 -0.04 Jan-04 0.19 Jan-07 0.41 Jan-10 0.55
    Feb-98 0.66 Feb-01 0.06 Feb-04 0.21 Feb-07 0.22 Feb-10 0.52
    Mar-98 0.43 Mar-01 0.04 Mar-04 0.32 Mar-07 0.24 Mar-10 0.55
    Apr-98 0.66 Apr-01 0.18 Apr-04 0.15 Apr-07 0.18 Apr-10 0.4
    May-98 0.57 May-01 0.19 May-04 0.05 May-07 0.19 May-10 0.46
    Jun-98 0.52 Jun-01 -0.01 Jun-04 0.02 Jun-07 0.16 Jun-10 0.39
    Jul-98 0.44 Jul-01 0.06 Jul-04 -0.19 Jul-07 0.18 Jul-10 0.42
    Aug-98 0.45 Aug-01 0.25 Aug-04 -0.06 Aug-07 0.17 Aug-10 0.44
    Sep-98 0.34 Sep-01 0.09 Sep-04 0.12 Sep-07 0.14 Sep-10 0.48
    Oct-98 0.3 Oct-01 0.19 Oct-04 0.24 Oct-07 0.15 Oct-10 0.31
    Nov-98 0.08 Nov-01 0.17 Nov-04 0.15 Nov-07 0.06 Nov-10 0.27
    Dec-98 0.2 Dec-01 0.17 Dec-04 0.09 Dec-07 -0.06 Dec-10 0.18
    Jan-99 0.03 Jan-02 0.21 Jan-05 0.3 Jan-08 -0.3 Jan-11 0
    Feb-99 0.14 Feb-02 0.19 Feb-05 0.18 Feb-08 -0.25 Feb-11 -0.01
    Mar-99 -0.1 Mar-02 0.25 Mar-05 0.21 Mar-08 -0.07 Mar-11 -0.1
    Apr-99 -0.03 Apr-02 0.24 Apr-05 0.36 Apr-08 -0.02 Apr-11 0.12
    May-99 -0.06 May-02 0.31 May-05 0.21 May-08 -0.19 May-11 0.14
    Jun-99 -0.17 Jun-02 0.32 Jun-05 0.22 Jun-08 -0.12
    Jul-99 -0.07 Jul-02 0.22 Jul-05 0.27 Jul-08 -0.01
    Aug-99 -0.12 Aug-02 0.17 Aug-05 0.13 Aug-08 -0.06
    Sep-99 0.01 Sep-02 0.24 Sep-05 0.32 Sep-08 0.14
    Oct-99 -0.05 Oct-02 0.13 Oct-05 0.35 Oct-08 0.13
    Nov-99 -0.08 Nov-02 0.25 Nov-05 0.31 Nov-08 0.17
    Dec-99 -0.08 Dec-02 0.15 Dec-05 0.18 Dec-08 0.1
    Jan-00 -0.33 Jan-03 0.29 Jan-06 0.19 Jan-09 0.15
    Feb-00 -0.09 Feb-03 0.17 Feb-06 0.22 Feb-09 0.16
    Mar-00 -0.06 Mar-03 0.08 Mar-06 0.19 Mar-09 0.09
    Apr-00 0.03 Apr-03 0.15 Apr-06 0.13 Apr-09 0.05
    May-00 0.05 May-03 0.22 May-06 -0.03 May-09 0.06
    Jun-00 0 Jun-03 0.03 Jun-06 0.12 Jun-09 -0.01
    Jul-00 -0.09 Jul-03 0.11 Jul-06 0.15 Jul-09 0.36
    Aug-00 -0.12 Aug-03 0.11 Aug-06 0.19 Aug-09 0.17
    Sep-00 0 Sep-03 0.19 Sep-06 0.24 Sep-09 0.38
    Oct-00 -0.02 Oct-03 0.3 Oct-06 0.31 Oct-09 0.25
    Nov-00 0 Nov-03 0.22 Nov-06 0.19 Nov-09 0.39
    Dec-00 -0.04 Dec-03 0.37 Dec-06 0.21 Dec-09 0.21

  24. And you’d have to say, by any objective measures, Abbott has been a resounding failure.

    He failed to win the election.

    He failed to negotiate effectively enough with the indies to get them to give him government (or a new election).

    He has since failed to get them on side to give him government (or a new election).

    He has failed to turn public dissatisfaction with the government into any kind of real movement, let alone one which would sweep the Liberals into power.

    He has failed to negotiate successfully with the government and/or the indies to either modify or prevent 150 plus pieces of legislation going through Parliament.

    For someone in his position – facing a minority government, which holds power because of the support of a ragtag of independents with sometimes wildly opposing views, which is lagging in the polls and has upset quite a few of the monied, vested interests – this is absolutely incredible.

  26. [It is going to be interesting to see how this plays out. I have always said that the coalition are a house of cards. Will not take much for it to fall.]

    One of Abbott’s self-preservation tactics has been to bang on and on about The Knifing of St Kev; conveniently ignoring his “Knifing of Turnbull”. So “Knifing of St Tony” would undercut one of the Opposition’s most powerful memes (esp in Q) – power hungry Gillard & supporters assassinate ALP leader – by changing that to power-hungry politicians of both major parties assassinate their leaders.

    As long as he stays high in the polls, Abbott is probably safe. The crunch comes with major policy implementation & settling-in periods … most probably when more NBN is switched on & the government starts paying most Aussies Carbon Price offsets.

  27. And the sour grapes begin…

    [HAVE Australians already seen the last majority national Labor government?

    The question acquires great potency now that the Greens have assumed the balance of power in the Senate. The comfortable, conventional view of the 2010 election result, which denied Labor and the Coalition an outright lower house majority, is that it was a one-off, born of the peculiar circumstances in which both Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott became leaders of their parties – and the limited ways they exercised leadership.

    Supposedly, following the difficulties and inbuilt uncertainties that go with a minority government, things will return to normal at the next election, with either Labor or the Coalition securing a majority. At best, this looks like being only half-right.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/declining-labor-may-have-to-tie-knot-with-the-greens-20110701-1gv3d.html#ixzz1QtZH9Tx9

    Sean Carney is a relatively sensible bloke, but when it comes to the Liberal Party he reverts to a fair approximation of The Giggling Schoolgirl.

    He doesn’t see the irony in dismissing Labor as a no-longer serious party, incapable of governing in its own right, while lacing his commentary with the word “Coalition”. Knock off that capital-C and I hope you get my drift: “coalition”.

    The crazy-brave attempt to force an election that was never going to happen (bar death or misadventure) by bullying independent MHRs, wrecking confidence in governance itself out there in Voterland, debasing debate on major issues and attempting to sabotage the economy by constantly blocking fiscal savings measures (while constantly calling for them to be implemented) has failed.

    So now let’s declare victory and claim we’ve wrecked Labor anyway. It’ll never be any good again. It might have to do deals with the Greens. Never mind that the Libs welched on their own deals with the government and so Labor stopped trying to come to an arrangement with them. That’s all in the past.

    The Liberals, of course, would never stand for that grubby type of business. Hitching up with a rump party further out on the political limb than it is itself (although nowadays it’s more a theoretical separation than a real one) would never do. No, no, no, no… yes.

    In ShaunWorld (TM), the Coalition remains pure and unadulterated, a band of philosopher kings, dealing with each issue on it merits, dispensing wisdom by means of sage laws and executive decisions that take no account of the loony hayseed agrarian socialists, the Nationals, continually holding out their paws for more concessions and kickbacks from the taxpayer in exchange for their handful of votes.

    Not for them the nasty machinations of factionalism. There are no loose cannons among the Libs. They are as one with each other. OK, so all they ever say nowadays is “No” (a funny substitute for policy development), but Lord Randolph Churchill said something about an Opposition’s duty being to oppose. Who are they to doubt the words of the syphilitic old windbag from the 19th century?

    There are no ructions within the Libs, or the Nats, or the Libs and the Nats, merely disagreements between gentlemen.

    There are no undercurrents, no radical vote-losing policies continuously fermenting just under the surface, like Work Choices #2: The Revenge, no mad-as-a-cut-snake boofheads pushing anti-social, anti-worker, anti-Australian agendas at the behest of a greedy Big Business. The Libs will never abandon their integrity to take tobacco money, or oil money. And they will never come to an arrangement, forced on them by changing voter patterns, to vote against their free-market principles by doing dirty deals with … oh, the horror … another party.

    No sir… no, no, no, no… yes.

    Only the Coalition can govern in its own right as a united party, while it looks (sadly) likely that Labor may have to work with the Greens in an almost indistinguishable coalition from the left, and that’s just sad.

    Labor has passed 151 laws, fixed Telstra, got its budget through, survived day-by-day attempts to wreck the processes of the parliament, is building the hated NBN, saved the economy and the fabric of the nation through the GFC, has kept interest rates lower than Howard had them for any time in his last several years of power, is building to full employment, raising pensions, is constructing roads, railways and hospitals at record rates… but youse all know, in your hearts of hearts… they’re doomed.

    So says Shaun Carney, disinterested observer and commentator, a distinguished member of the esteemed not-the-media, who calls it only as he sees it.

    The reality’s only just sinking in to Shaun’s brain: Labor won, his mob lost. They bet the house (and the farm too) that a combination of negativity, shock jocks, biased newspapers, insults, antics, misery, pseudo science and junk economics could rid them of the socialist hordes… and they failed. All they can do now is whinge that the country’s so negative all of a sudden. The punters are staying away from their overpriced shops, they’re not buying houses, they’re huddled in their rooms refusing even to take the hated free STBs (which the Libs AND the Nats voted unanimously for them to have). Better to sack 12,000 public servants when they come to office than do any, y’know, policy work. That’ll get the public’s confidence up. A sure vote winner there.

    Welcome to the sunshine of unemployment for the good of the nation because the Coalition can’t think of anything else to do to pay for their brain fart giveaways. Give that man a Kewpy Doll, and that other one a slice of Magic Pudding. They’re only on $150k. They’re doing it tough.

    Then blame the wrong crowd for all the depression that’s going around, pulling everything down to their own miserable level. Lack of confidence? The people are angry? Despondent? Don’t have any faith in anything?

    Nothing to do with us…. no, no, no, no…

    Yes.

    The message from Carney’s piece today is that they know they lost, so they may as well see what else they can talk down, denigrate, belittle and wreck before they get back to what they do best: opposition.

  29. OPT

    Of course the current polls are great for the coalition. Is Abbott remaining leader for the long term, better for Labor?

  30. Part of the “why now” puzzle of Reith putting forward IR reform once again is that the coalition may be having a problem controlling the monster they created when they made Abbott LOTO. Abbott failed the job he was given mainly because Labor ditched Rudd and installed Gillard which meant a more formidable opponent. Gillard is not hampered by ego and can take all the hate and abuse dished up on her plate.

    The fact that Gillard is still standing firm and implementing policies means that the thorn in Abbott’s side has grown to the size of a tomato stake. He has the polls swinging in his favour yet his enemy is still there smiling, laughing and carrying on with government. This is all too much for Abbott to bear and he is consumed with loathing for this mere woman who refuses to give in. And this is why the Minchin forces who put Abbott there can no longer control him and it is the reason that, in the end, if they don’t bring him down they will all fail.

  31. janice2

    The coalition are a party divided. Who would they replace him with is the big question? Especially as the are so far ahead in the opinion polls

  32. BB

    It also ignores a few realities about the source of Green votes at the last election.

    I have quite a few friends who are traditional Labor voters and voted Green purely because they wanted to force action on climate change.

    If the carbon price goes through, at least some of these will drift back to Labor – they don’t see the Greens as an alternative party, but a ginger group.

    If there isn’t a carbon price (and all indications are there will be), again, some of these will drift back to Labor (assuming that failure to secure a cp is due to the Greens).

    Back in Keating’s day, having the balance of power in the Senate saw the Greens under scrutiny and lost them seats.

  33. Peak Abbott,,, lol.

    There has been talk of peak abbott on here every week and yet gillard continues to sink further into the grave.

    When Gillard drags her self up to 40% in news poll i will believe Peak Abbott and Abbott will be “dead, buried and cremated” .

  36. rummel

    Just in case you did not know, Weekly and fortnightly opinion polls do not determine who is in government.
    Only one poll determines that, and it aint happening just yet

  37. [You’ve gotta say that Troy Bramston on Agenda is a very lively and likable bloke.]
    And as for Chris Kenny . . . . . . . .

  38. [I have quite a few friends who are traditional Labor voters and voted Green purely because they wanted to force action on climate change.]

    Anecdotal, of course, but it supports my thesis that the “There will not be a Carbon Tax” announcement pre-election was a nett vote loser for Gillard, not a vote winner.

  39. BB:

    I wonder too, how many of those who voted Greens last election will reconsider their vote given the hung parliament result?

  42. Victoria,
    [The coalition are a party divided. Who would they replace him with is the big question? Especially as the are so far ahead in the opinion polls]

    Someone who would do as they’re told 🙂 Someone who can lie, deceive but sound credible. There choices are small but they could take a punt on Julie Bishop :D:

  44. PvO is MOST unhappy about the non-appearance of Opposition shadows. He said that tomorrow morning he will ask every question to Tony Burke about Opposition policy, giving him free rein to let it rip.

  45. janice2

    Good luck with that choice. My mum reckons JBishop sounds like a second rate soapie actress when she speaks!

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