Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Keen followers of the comments threads will be aware I’ve had my eye off the ball a bit over the past day or so, and hence missed the always enjoyable quarterly Newspoll geographic and demographic breakdowns. These point to swings against Labor of 4.5 per cent in New South Wales, 3.3 per cent in Victoria, 2.9 per cent in Queensland, 3.2 per cent in South Australia and 1.6 per cent in Western Australia – although since they cover the past three months, they are a little more flattering to Labor than the polling picture as it stands right now. More from Peter Brent at Mumble and Simon Jackman at Stanford University.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,636 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  1. Chris Curtis,

    [The level of dishonest and bitter vitriol that OzPolTragic has produced (9.42am, page 42) is typical of him. It seems it is always 1957 in his mind. He is under no obligation to trust the DLP, in either incarnation. He is entitled to prefer Steve Fielding to the DLP, in either incarnation. He is entitled to quote an actual DLP policy – not invent one – and say what is wrong with it. ]

    Chris, with respect, OPT may “not” be all that far off the mark with “HER” comments at all.

    Coming from a major, stronghold of the Queensland brand of the DLP, she is qualified to comment on her local situation which I submit, with respect, was somewhat different to the victorian experience.

    The Nationals swallowed many, if not the greater majority of the DLP supporters up here.

  2. Boerwar

    If the govt had announced a cure for cancer, our esteemed journos would find something to whinge about

  3. The fact remains that the DLP’s “fierce anti-communism” (as Chris puts it) led to it making preference deals with the Libs that kept the ALP out of office for nearly 20 years.

    It was not only rabidly anti-communist, it was also rabidly anti-ALP.

    It’s all well and good now to point to a few progressive DLP policies laying in the historical dust on the floor beneath our feet, but the essential truth is that if it were not for the DLP, we would have had a Labor Government from ’61 onwards.

    They cut Labor’s throat. And that’s a fact.

  4. ShowsOn @ 2558

    At the moment only NBN Co. can do the installations.

    I thought NBN had gone to tender for companies to contract for that work.

  5. ruawake and nappin,

    It’s nice to k now that not all responses will be “an avalanche of abuse”. I am one of those old-fashioned souls who think we should lift the standard of public debate and focus on facts and actual reasoning. One-eyed partisanship is tiresome. Two-eyed partisanship is OK.

  6. scorpio,

    I stand corrected on OzPolTragic being a female, but on nothing else. The DLP was not a racist party. The people I knew in it were not racist. Indeed, it was the Queensland branch that ran a Torres Strait Islander candidate in 1972. That said, I do not doubt that some individuals behaved poorly, but that is no justification for the slurs that she regularly dishes up.

  7. You’ll get none from me, Chris. I have long respected your posts and you have added to the neglected debate on education. One thing: OPT is a female.

    One other minor historical thing. I recently read Crisp’s bio of Chifley. He was pretty critical of the Victorian Groupers in the late 40s and the trouble they gave to Chif.

    Otherwise, I’d agree that most areas of division (between the DLP and Labor) became much less relevant after Gough.

  8. Mr Speers struggling to generate with a dullard.

    Mr Madigan is against the carbon tax. He wants to be

    ,’…proactive not reactive. If you want to do something for the environment go and buy an Australian-made jumper.’

    ye gods. A fitting replacement for Fielding.

    Mr Katter, Mr Joyce you have competition.

  9. smithe,

    Of course, the DLP did preference deals against the ALP. After all, its members had been expelled by the ALP and adopted a strategy that pushed the ALP to reform itself, which it did.

    If it had not been for the foolishness of Dr Evatt, we would have had an ALP government earlier than 1961.

    The ALP has learnt the lesson of its three splits and there will not be another one.

  10. [If the govt had announced a cure for cancer, our esteemed journos would find something to whinge about]

    What about all the doctors put out of a job? And how much waste was involved in finding the cure? And why did Julia Gillard wear a white outfit to the announcement??? THAT is the big question!

  11. And just how many of the DLP’s “progressive policies” did they manage to get-up under the Libs, Chris?

    I can’t remember a single one. Can you?

    Having abandoned the ALP the DLP then spent the next 20 or so years ensuring one long continuous period of Coalition rule. First under Menzies, then Holt, Gorton and McMahon.

    They were still at-it, trying to white-ant Labor, under Fraser.

    We sure got a whole lot of progressive policies implemented during those years didn’t we?

    Talk about self-defeating. If their “progressive” platform was so important to them, then perhaps they should have supported Labor. Hell, we might have had Medicare in the mid 60’s instead of 10 years later.

  12. [One-eyed partisanship is tiresome.]

    That’s pretty hilarious coming from the glass-jawed guy who scrolled the posts today and responded 7 times to perceived “misrepresentations” of his beloved DLP.

    Everyone comes from their own perspective which is often based on both experience and knowledge. Just because it is different from your own experience doesn’t make them wrong.

    For example, the DLP is alive and well in SA and firmly entrenched in the Labor Party.

    Just so you know 😛

  13. Chris Curtis

    I agree with you on some members of the ALP being close to the DLP. That is certainly true in SA with members of the SDA faction and I also remember someone saying that Kevin Rudd was in this category.

    As for Tony Abbott, from what I’ve read and heard of him, is that he’s very sympathetic to trade unions and the only reason he takes a stand on IR issues is to be considered apart of the mainstream of the Liberal party.

    It’s interesting right now to see how he’s trying to maintain his social conservative views on unions (i.e they’re good people that must be protected) with the mainstream Liberal Party who want a stronger IR policy. He seems conflicted if you ask me.

  14. Boerwar

    Is creepiest a description you would use?

    CRAZYJANE13 | 9 minutes ago
    [New DLP senator John Madigan on #pmagenda. Creepiest. Senator. EVER.]

  15. Gorgeous Dunny,

    I did not know that. I must get around to reading the biography. The collapse of communism has changed the political landscape completely. As I can hardly be accused of being pro-communist (though I am labelled a mad left-winger over at Andre Bolt), I can safely say that this collapse has led to triumphal capitalis which has been bad news for most of us. There has to be a way to civilise capitalism even in the absence of the spectre of communist totalitarianism hanging over it as a threat of what might happen if it does not civilise.

    Gough Whitlam was smart enough to take on the Victorian ALP and to sideline the DLP on state aid.


    Bluey has decided that Mr Madigan, DLP, should get a stunt on day one. Faced with a question on AGW and what to do about it, Mr Madigan disses the carbon tax and says, ‘If you want to do something for the environment go and buy an Australian-made jumper.’ Bluey believes that Mr Joyce and Mr Katter may have some competition.

    1. Mr Abbott demands an $80 million plebiscite to which he will not listen. June 2011
    2. Mr Hockey plays with cardboard Kev cutouts. June 2011
    3. Mr Abbott sits on a horse to stop cruelty to cattle in Indonesia. June 2011
    4. Mr Abbott and Mr Morrison inspect wrecked dongas on Nauru to prove that wrecked dongas can be fixed. June 2011.
    5. Mr Rudd announces an assassination party. June 2011.
    6. Mr Abbott demands that Ms Gillard takes him with her to Indonesia to fix the cruelty to cattle issue. June 2011.
    7. Mr Abbott unloads a cardboard box from a van. June 2011.
    8. Mr Abbott steers a moored catamaran. June 2011.
    9. Mr Abbott rides a bicycle to stop anthropogenic global warming. June 2011.
    10. Ms Gillard plays a video game. Purpose unclear. June 2011.
    11. Mr Abbott wears a miner’s helmet and stands in a mine. July 2011.
    12. Mr Abbott sledges economists for daring to think that a market economy approach is more effective and efficient than his Direct Action Plan. July 2011.
    13. Mr Truss says that the carbon tax is designed to stop you visiting your sick mother. July 2011.
    14. Ms Gillard googoos a baby. July 2011.
    15. Mr Brown challenges Mr Abbott to a debate on climate knowing that the debate will not happen. July 2011.
    16. Mr Truss and Mr Joyce publicly associate themselves with phrase including: ‘Ju-liar’, ‘Ditch the witch’ and ‘If it’s brown, flush it down.’ July 2011.
    17. Mr Abbott again demands an $80 million plebiscite to which he will not listen. July 2011
    18. Mr Abbott wears overalls and moves a tuna. July 2011
    19. Mr Joyce says that Mr Brown wants us all to sit down and eat berries and nuts. July 2011.
    20. Mr Abbott moves a motion in the House demanding the Government holds an $80 million plebiscite to which he will not listen. July 2011
    21. Mr Madigan wants us to fix Athropogenic Global Warming by buying an Australian-made jumper. July 2011.

    Individual running tally:

    Mr Abbott: 12
    Mr Truss: 2
    Ms Gillard: 2
    Mr Morrison: 1
    Mr Hockey: 1
    Mr Rudd: 1
    Mr Joyce: 2
    Mr Brown: 1
    Mr Madigan: 1

    Party running tally.

    Liberal Party 14 stunts; Labor Party 3 stunts; National Party: 4 stunts; Greens: 1 stunt. DLP: 1 stunt; Independents: still in the blocks.

  17. Boerwar: is Abbott still saying he won’t abide by the outcome of the plebiscite if it is a yes rather than a no?

    I thought I read a quote from him earlier which indicated he had changed his mind and would be bound by it as well.

    As such, doesn’t that qualify as a genuine attempt to force a plebiscite, rather than just a stunt – which the first one clearly was?

  18. “It was, after all, they who tried to blow up the House of Commons on the memorable 5th of December 1605″…

    Apparently not that memorable – it was actually 5th November.

  19. Chris Curtis
    “(though I am labelled a mad left-winger over at Andre Bolt), ”
    Anyone left of Maggie T is a mad lefty over there.

  20. smithe,

    They managed to get prison reformi n Victoria. They managed to get state aid for private schools. They managed to get the recognition of dental technicians – not a big issue I grant you. But my point is not what they achieved. It is what they stood for.

  21. DL

    I did hear late this afternoon that Mr Abbott has changed his tune.

    I anticipate serious criticisms of Mr Abbott backflipping on a key detail of his $80 million plebiscite by an enraged MSM. How dare he do this without their permission?

    Perhaps Ms Crabb will take time off from dissing the Government and focus for a nanosecond on the very serious shortcomings of Mr Abbott?

  22. Danny Lewis,

    Can you explain why to present a defence against a critical view is evidence of a “glass jaw”? Is one supposed to sit back and let misrepresentation pass unchallenged?

  23. Chris Curtis

    I may not agree with you on much but I admire your honest stand.

    Also I agree that the old style “catholic worker right” of the ALp shared very many solid views in common with the old “style worker left”, especially on matters of equality and social justice and income redistribution.

    The large areas of difference lie in the moral or social issues and to an extent any matters associated with the US alliance eg the Vietnam war. More recently green issues may be a difference, though I not Chis Curtis comments on the uranium debate.

    I am perhaps less convinced about the power of Santamaria because he was a fellow with very many irons in very many fires.

  24. Adam Bandt’s Safety, Rehabilitation and Compensation Amendment (Fair Protection for Firefighters) Bill 2011 – a bill to compensate firefighters who develop certain types of cancer – has received backing from Coalition and Labor federal backbenchers.

    [Overseas research has linked exposure to chemicals and soot to much higher reported rates of cancer among firefighters and Mr Bandt’s bill will reverse the onus of proof for certain types of cancers, and will presume them to be work-related.]

  25. [Perhaps Ms Crabb will take time off from dissing the Government and focus for a nanosecond on the very serious shortcomings of Mr Abbott?]


    Mr Boerwar; your sense of humour is unmatched 😀

  26. CC

    You are doing pretty well here. I guess that is what happens when you use the facts and you are not the Gillard Government.

    My divorce from the DLP was basically generated by its support for the Vietnam War.

    Any views?

  27. Chris Curtis
    [Is one supposed to sit back and let misrepresentation pass unchallenged?]
    I ask myself that question all the time 😀

  28. MTBW @ 2596

    A quick comment on QT – did anyone else notice that each Government Minister used the word “Labor” or the words “Labor Government” in their response to Questions today?

    Hit me that polling must be telling them they are not seen as a “Labor” Government by Labor supporters.

    Just a thought!

    Maybe they want to reclaim the continuity from previous ALP Governments pre Julia Gillard being PM.

    Damn good idea.

  29. Hang your collective heads in shame Victoria having elected Mr Madigan to the Senate. I thought at first, when I saw him with Speers, of Fawlty Towers’ Manuel. But the more I saw of him the more I realised I was being unkind to Manuel.

  30. spur212,

    Kevin Rudd’s mother voted DLP. Steve Bracks’s father was a member of the DLP. Monica Gould’s father was a member of the DLP and a railways industrial grouper. John Mildren, the ALP member of Ballarat, was a former member of the DLP. Terry Monagle, ALP candidate for, I think, Ferntree Gully many years ago, had been a member of the DLP Central Executive. The list goes on.

    I’m not sure about Tony Abbott’s true position on unions – or a few other things to be honest. The Liberals basically represent 10-20 per cent of the population but they have to convince working people to back them to get the numbers

  31. Private schools= the bane of the nation.

    Divisive. Destructive. Sectarian. Class warfare by other means.

    IMHO there should only be public schools and all children should have to go to them.

    It would do wonders for the quality of public schools and for the fair distribution of access to education.

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