Nielsen: 59-41 to Coalition

The Sydney Morning Herald reports the latest Nielsen survey has robbed a Morgan phone poll conducted a fortnight ago of its distinction as the only poll showing the Coalition’s lead reaching the heights of 59-41. Nielsen has the Labor primary vote at just 27 per cent – “the lowest level ever for a major party in the poll’s history of almost four decades” – with the Coalition at 49 per cent. No result has been provided for the Greens at this stage. Last month’s Nielsen poll had the Coalition lead at 56-44, with primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 47 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. More detail presumably to follow.

UPDATE: In anticipation of a Morgan face-to-face poll which didn’t arrive, I prepared a chart earlier today showing how both Morgan face-to-face and Essential had converged upon the Newspoll trend over the last year or two after traditionally having been more favourable to Labor. I did this by producing quarterly averages for each agency’s polling going back to the start of 2009. I didn’t bother to include Nielsen as it reports far less frequently and is thus more prone to variability. But Nielsen’s habits relative to other pollsters would seem to have become a live issue as of half an hour ago, so now I have. And as you can see, Nielsen seems to have gone very sour for Labor of late: whereas the other pollsters have been broadly consistent around 54-46, the last three Nielsen results have been 56-44, 56-44 again and now 59-41. “Morgan (RA)” and “Morgan (PE)” refer to their respondent-allocated and previous-election methods of allocating minor party/independent preferences, which tells a story of its own.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes reports the poll has a dizzying 60 per cent now favouring Kevin Rudd for Labor leader against just 31 per cent for Julia Gillard. We are also informed the Greens primary vote is on 12 per cent, up two from last time.

UPDATE 3: It now emerges that Tony Abbott is equal with Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister on 46 per cent, the first time Abbott has achieved this. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is down six to 37 per cent and her disapproval up seven to 59 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up one on approval to 46 per cent and steady on disapproval at 50 per cent. These all entail remarkably low undecided results: perhaps this is a feature of Nielsen I’ve just never noticed before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,857 comments on “Nielsen: 59-41 to Coalition”

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  1. Generic Person: yes, Joe Ludwig ought to go on the ministerial scrapheap too – if his father wasn’t the head union honcho, he’d never have got anywhere near parliament.

  2. Perhaps if the polls continue to deteriorate for Labor, the PM may decide of her own accord to step down. It would have to be against the genuine protests of all factions (so that no one could say she was forced out) but it would be interesting to say the least to see what the effect would be.

  3. [Winston
    Posted Friday, June 17, 2011 at 9:59 pm | Permalink
    Relax folks. It’s just a Nielsen.]

    Yes, but it’s the trend which is the worry.

  5. GG

    [Diogs,

    I was talking about you.]

    I’m not fond of the phrase “long game”.

    Finns, Boerwar, Fukushima Inc have patented it anyway.

  6. vp

    Very poetic.

    You should think about a career with Jenauthor as agent and Blossom to fix up the ‘who’ and the ‘whom’ of it.

  7. [Can you imagine how Labor back benchers will be taking this result. Will fear create loose lips and dissent?]

    I wonder if back benchers ever wonder why they are back benchers?

  12. Bludgers:

    RELAX:

    THis poll is 100% a result of the shameful campaign by Animals Australia and Their ABC in manufacturing a Crisis in regards the Live Beef Trade to Indonesia.

    Note the media articles as soon as the Ban was imposed – it wasn’t “The Poor Cars” , but “The Poor Farmers being Treated badly by the Govt”.

    As with Newspoll nopte that the Coalition did NOT get all the drop in the ALP vote, but the Others got a big increase, at the expense of both Labor and The Greens.

  14. [From my perspective I would like the climate policy to be sorted out sooner than later.]

    Victoria, so would I (as I am sure that all the parties involved would too).

  15. The Punctuation and Grammar Committee is going to have to take GP in hand: ‘effected’.

    Really, GP, we do have our standards.

  17. [would you prefer abbott as pm or turnbull?]

    If Turnbull promised no republic then Turnbull.

    Frank your tears are so sweet and yummy 😀

  18. It can’t get much worse, can it?

    I know they are working through important details but it’s hard being patient when the Government is getting attacked at every turn. When will things start going their way?

    The Opposition have no redeemable qualities whatsoever, how the hell are they this far ahead?! What is wrong with people?!

    (I apologise, I’m just really disgusted and angry with everything that is going on)

  22. [victoria

    Posted Friday, June 17, 2011 at 10:15 pm | Permalink

    Frank Calabrese

    I am glad to see you are confident.
    ]
    I saw it coming when the Four Corners program was aired – plus today’s relevstions that the Minister was denied access to the footage until it was on Four Corners so he couldn’t act appropriately earlier is very telling.

  24. Hang on a cotton-picking minute

    Just got the break-down of the Coalition vote:

    Murdochracy: 42
    ABC: 10
    Fairfax: 5
    LNP: 2

    It’s no over yet, folks.

  25. [117

    Glen

    Posted Friday, June 17, 2011 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

    would you prefer abbott as pm or turnbull?

    If Turnbull promised no republic then Turnbull.

    Frank your tears are so sweet and yummy
    ]

    I ain’t crying Glen – I’m stating the Bleeding obvious – this poll, like Newspoll is Bovine driven.

  27. Frank,
    It is a bit empty under the bridge tonight. 😆

    I now rarely talk to TP et al. I find people who do drive-by drivelling do not hold my interest.

  28. [THis poll is 100% a result of the shameful campaign by Animals Australia and Their ABC in manufacturing a Crisis in regards the Live Beef Trade to Indonesia.]

    A referendum to give cows the vote would turn things round.

  29. chanel 7 still running their rumour re kev wanting to come back.

    not seen anyting on twitter, i hope.

    kev says nonsence, who is playing silly buggers is it just the media.

  30. No 112

    Like it or not Frank, but human life is more important than that of any animal. News of farmer discontent was rightfully reported because the government knee-jerked it’s way to a policy response, first banning cows to select abattoirs then instituting a complete ban all the while they forgot to decide the details on compensation. Meanwhile, farmers livelihoods have been completely knifed.

  32. Mr Bowe

    I am not statistical, but it does seem as if they cannot all be right.

    On behalf of Ms Gillard, I bags Essential.

  33. William

    So Newspoll was underestimating Labor’s 2PP two years ago and now they are slightly overestimating it (cf the other polls).

  35. But I thought that the ban on animal exports to Indonesia had majority public support, even despite the bleating of the meat & livestock industry.
    Sure, the government has mishandled the response to it, so perhaps it’s symptomatic of a general inability to properly communicate policy, especially good policy?

  36. vitalise

    Agree with your sentiments. This week has been a difficult one. The govt have to hold their nerve. Unlike me. I am a nervous wreck at the moment. I feel a little desperate. Perhaps Rudd and Gillard should be seen together hugging or something!! Sorry, I am making no sense, but I am losing all perspective!!!

  40. [rishane

    Posted Friday, June 17, 2011 at 10:19 pm | Permalink

    It was a rather sudden shift from ‘DO SOMETHING!’ to ‘STOP HURTING THE FARMERS!”, wasn’t it?
    ]

    Try 30 seconds after Joe Ludwig’s presser.

  41. GP

    The Gillard Government is providing exactly the same level of compensation as the Howard Government provided to the benighted farmers during the Egyptian ban.

    But you would have known that already.

  44. That’s it for the night. And I certainly won’t be watching Insiders in the morning with that pathetic Pyne creature on.
    Night all.

  46. [vp
    Posted Friday, June 17, 2011 at 10:18 pm | Permalink
    No change of leader. There would be no guarantee of indie or green support.]

    vp is this you saying this or who

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