Nielsen: 59-41 to Coalition

The Sydney Morning Herald reports the latest Nielsen survey has robbed a Morgan phone poll conducted a fortnight ago of its distinction as the only poll showing the Coalition’s lead reaching the heights of 59-41. Nielsen has the Labor primary vote at just 27 per cent – “the lowest level ever for a major party in the poll’s history of almost four decades” – with the Coalition at 49 per cent. No result has been provided for the Greens at this stage. Last month’s Nielsen poll had the Coalition lead at 56-44, with primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 47 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. More detail presumably to follow.

UPDATE: In anticipation of a Morgan face-to-face poll which didn’t arrive, I prepared a chart earlier today showing how both Morgan face-to-face and Essential had converged upon the Newspoll trend over the last year or two after traditionally having been more favourable to Labor. I did this by producing quarterly averages for each agency’s polling going back to the start of 2009. I didn’t bother to include Nielsen as it reports far less frequently and is thus more prone to variability. But Nielsen’s habits relative to other pollsters would seem to have become a live issue as of half an hour ago, so now I have. And as you can see, Nielsen seems to have gone very sour for Labor of late: whereas the other pollsters have been broadly consistent around 54-46, the last three Nielsen results have been 56-44, 56-44 again and now 59-41. “Morgan (RA)” and “Morgan (PE)” refer to their respondent-allocated and previous-election methods of allocating minor party/independent preferences, which tells a story of its own.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes reports the poll has a dizzying 60 per cent now favouring Kevin Rudd for Labor leader against just 31 per cent for Julia Gillard. We are also informed the Greens primary vote is on 12 per cent, up two from last time.

UPDATE 3: It now emerges that Tony Abbott is equal with Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister on 46 per cent, the first time Abbott has achieved this. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is down six to 37 per cent and her disapproval up seven to 59 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up one on approval to 46 per cent and steady on disapproval at 50 per cent. These all entail remarkably low undecided results: perhaps this is a feature of Nielsen I’ve just never noticed before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,857 comments on “Nielsen: 59-41 to Coalition”

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  1. [If the night of the 6.5 star generals team has stepped into the field of punctuation, I am out of it. Their firing squads are something horrible.]

    you iz learned beyond your ears

  2. The Gillard Government will run the course and finish the job.

    One battle a war doth not make.

    The horizon is not under our sandshoes.

    The long march was done a step at a time.

  3. And when is the next election?
    Plenty of time to gain traction.
    Enjoy your hollow victory lib fanboys.
    GP you should come along more often – we could give you a critique of papas food…

  4. GP’s Back in town!

    Well well it has to be biased because these poll figures are in the Age and the Age is a lefty rag 😀 lol jj.

    Remember when K Rudd used to be 65/35 2PP when against Brendan Nelson???

    Eventually you’d think the ALP would reckon they’re more of a chance with Smith as leader than Jools, she’s a failed leader and done way worse than Kevin Rudd.

    I’d even say that Kevin would do a better job as leader going into 2013 than Jools.

    What’s more crazy is the Tories are almost 602PP with this poll and Tony Abbott is leader!!????

    [And what an absolute travesty that would be.]

    Treasurer Hockey
    Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop
    Finance Minister – ZZZZZ Robb

  5. There had better be a consensus reached soon re carbon price and compensation. The vaccum is hurting both Labor and the Greens.

  6. [What’s more crazy is the Tories are almost 602PP with this poll and Tony Abbott is leader!!????]

    hammer meet nail

    even under afghani helium, you couldnt believe this

    🙁

  7. [BK
    Posted Friday, June 17, 2011 at 9:55 pm | Permalink
    ‘Prime Minister Abbott; Deputy Prime Minister Truss’

    And what an absolute travesty that would be]

    I could just get by with Truss but Abbott no way.

  8. [And what an absolute travesty that would be.]

    Would Truss and Robb be fighting it out to be the first Minister for Insomnia?

  9. [There had better be a consensus reached soon re carbon price and compensation. The vaccum is hurting both Labor and the Greens.]

    Two years is a long time in politics …

  10. [Eventually you’d think the ALP would reckon they’re more of a chance with Smith as leader than Jools, she’s a failed leader and done way worse than Kevin Rudd.]

    Do you honestly think changing the leader would change the polls?

  11. [One battle a war doth not make.

    The horizon is not under our sandshoes.

    The long march was done a step at a time.]
    Festina lente.

    The race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, nor bread to the wise, nor riches to the intelligent, nor favor to those with knowledge, but time and chance happen to them all.

  12. BK,
    If that is what the Australian voter wants, then let them eat their cake, as the voters in NSW are doing. It will be a rancid and mal-nourishing cake, but, it will be their reward.

  13. Scarpat

    I agree, but unless the public know what to expect with the climate policy, this govt will lose its legitimacy. Just look at the msm this week. They are bashing the govt at every turn.

  14. If I was a Labor MP in a marginal seat, this would have me terrified.
    Glen is right: even Rudd at his worst never plumbed these depths.
    But oh so easy to blame News Ltd, or the ABC, or even Rudd. 😆

  15. Well I like the SMH weekend edition but might have to give it a wide berth tomorrow.
    Might have to buy The Oz instead!
    Although I do like Spectrum…

  16. Here’s my two bob BK….

    Stephen Smith – Prime Minister
    Chris Bowen – Treasurer
    Kevin Rudd – Foreign Affairs
    Nicola Roxon – Health
    Tony Burke – Finance Minister
    Bill Shorten – Education Minister
    Mike Kelly – Defence Minister
    Greg Combet – IR

    or else……..
    Prime Minister Tony Abbott

  17. [If that is what the Australian voter wants, then let them eat their cake, as the voters in NSW are doing. It will be a rancid and mal-nourishing cake, but, it will be their reward.]

    Puff, it will be everybody’s reward …

  18. I think this will invoke some more Rudd bashing and leaking from the toxic right faction as they seek to shore up their justification. Kinda of revealing when one of your tactics to justify your decisions and present predicament it to smear someone else then smear them again as things worsen. Maybe they will give it up as self defeating.

    Only things left to do now is for the media to smear Rudd some more, just in case, and give Combet and Shorten a shot as well, just in case.

    Can you imagine how Labor back benchers will be taking this result. Will fear create loose lips and dissent?

    The poll is probably quite generous toward the Coalition – but the number is scary none the less. Like a loud shot on a still dark night.

  19. PTMD

    I am start to see it that way too. If this country prefer the crap the coalition have to offer, then they deserve everything they get. Only problem is we will be getting it too.

  20. Finns

    You will be pleased to learn that Finns, Boerwar & Co (after consulting Blueytrend Polling Inc) have purchased the filthiest brown coal power station in the Latrobe Valley at a knockdown price. The machinery is worn out, the CO2 emissions are something horrible, and the Princes Highway is falling into the mine pit (I kid you not, partner.)

    But, but, but… Mr Abbott and Mr Hunt are going to chuck us a motza to convert to natural gas. Apparently the motza is coming out of the budget, so no-one will even notice.

    Partner, I feel a sweet little IPO coming up with some nice little option packages for the Board of Directors.

  21. evan,

    As always, at the first shot of grapes you shrivel up and start calling for your mummy.

    You are truly pathetic.

  22. Glen: I’d be promoting Jason Clare and Andrew Leigh, also Mike Kelly.
    It’s time to retire Swan to the backbenches, ditto for Farrell and Arbib.
    Shorten’s got ability.
    Either offer Rudd the top job back, or go to Smith as a safe pair of hands.

  23. No 50

    What a crock Frank. FFS, the government should have easily won the argument on live cattle exports, but instead looks like the incompetent rabble it always has been with Ludwig knee-jerking his way along.

    It’s all media cycle nonsense, when they should have taken a week to consider policy options with respect to compensation to effected industries.

  24. [I agree, but unless the public know what to expect with the climate policy, this govt will lose its legitimacy. Just look at the msm this week. They are bashing the govt at every turn.]

    Victoria, this has been true for the past 12 months. Nothing has changed. The Government just has to hold its course. It has the tiger by the tail, the time to get off is not when it is at its hungriest.

  25. Never fear, Labor’s got a full proof plan to turn around the polls: a Prime Ministerial engagement & wedding. 😉

  26. [Never fear, Labor’s got a full proof plan to turn around the polls: a Prime Ministerial engagement & wedding.]

    ewwwww…pass.

  27. There will be no change in the ALP leader. The government is ushering in big changes and people do not like change. They have been conditioned to expect their government to be Santa Claus by JWH and a government that actually governs rather than scattering sweeties to the crowd is a challenge to that expectation.

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