Nielsen: 59-41 to Coalition

The Sydney Morning Herald reports the latest Nielsen survey has robbed a Morgan phone poll conducted a fortnight ago of its distinction as the only poll showing the Coalition’s lead reaching the heights of 59-41. Nielsen has the Labor primary vote at just 27 per cent – “the lowest level ever for a major party in the poll’s history of almost four decades” – with the Coalition at 49 per cent. No result has been provided for the Greens at this stage. Last month’s Nielsen poll had the Coalition lead at 56-44, with primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 47 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. More detail presumably to follow.

UPDATE: In anticipation of a Morgan face-to-face poll which didn’t arrive, I prepared a chart earlier today showing how both Morgan face-to-face and Essential had converged upon the Newspoll trend over the last year or two after traditionally having been more favourable to Labor. I did this by producing quarterly averages for each agency’s polling going back to the start of 2009. I didn’t bother to include Nielsen as it reports far less frequently and is thus more prone to variability. But Nielsen’s habits relative to other pollsters would seem to have become a live issue as of half an hour ago, so now I have. And as you can see, Nielsen seems to have gone very sour for Labor of late: whereas the other pollsters have been broadly consistent around 54-46, the last three Nielsen results have been 56-44, 56-44 again and now 59-41. “Morgan (RA)” and “Morgan (PE)” refer to their respondent-allocated and previous-election methods of allocating minor party/independent preferences, which tells a story of its own.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes reports the poll has a dizzying 60 per cent now favouring Kevin Rudd for Labor leader against just 31 per cent for Julia Gillard. We are also informed the Greens primary vote is on 12 per cent, up two from last time.

UPDATE 3: It now emerges that Tony Abbott is equal with Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister on 46 per cent, the first time Abbott has achieved this. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is down six to 37 per cent and her disapproval up seven to 59 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up one on approval to 46 per cent and steady on disapproval at 50 per cent. These all entail remarkably low undecided results: perhaps this is a feature of Nielsen I’ve just never noticed before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,857 comments on “Nielsen: 59-41 to Coalition”

Comments Page 1 of 78
1 2 … 78

  2. Absolute shocker of a result for Labor – no sugar coating this one.
    Something urgent’s got to happen very soon – a leadership change, a cabinet reshuffle, a recalibration of policy.

  4. The latest Morgan Poll confirms the Blueytrend (TM) extrapolation that Labor will cease to have a primary vote some time around 1 December, with an MOE of around a week either side of that date.

  6. I dunno, Thomas Paine might come in for a victory. And the poll is bad but not exactly a surprise. Still trying to get critical (and often misrepresented) legislation through and having the MSM constantly depict your government as in chaos is bound to result in hard times at the polls.

  7. And the people in charge, the Swan/AWU bovver boys, are the very same people snubbing a former Prime Minister at his state ALP conference.
    That says it all about the parlous state of Federal Labor.

  9. [evan14

    Posted Friday, June 17, 2011 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    Absolute shocker of a result for Labor – no sugar coating this one.
    Something urgent’s got to happen very soon – a leadership change, a cabinet reshuffle, a recalibration of policy.
    ]

    Your Wet Dream.

    This is a Bovine driven poll.

    Expect an increase in the OTHER vote at the expense of The Grreens – for the Libs to only get 2% of the 4% drop in the ALP vote is the clue here. Same with Newspoll.

    The Katter influence is in play in Rural Australia.

  11. G

    Glen was serendipitous, last poll.

    The other two are vultures. Mind you, the smell of decomposition is in the air.

  17. [Something urgent’s got to happen very soon – a leadership change, a cabinet reshuffle, a recalibration of policy.]

    None of the above. All the major policies that the Government is working on with Independents and Greens still have to come to fruition. Once they have been implementated and have been in place for some months is the time to judge whether the lifeboats are to be called for.

  18. Not good but as GG said on the previous thread the only option is to push on with the legislative agenda and ignore polling at this stage in the cycle, as back-flips or change of leader will only worsen things.

  19. deblonay
    .
    “Poroti 4364 Re Hughes”
    .
    From previous blog but he really does seem to be a contender for Australia’s most appalling person. As a Kiwi I found a great likeness between Billy and “honest” John. The more I learn about Hughes the more it confirms my conclusion.

  25. GP,

    There’s always a horse in front at the first time past the post in the Melbourne Cup that finsishes near last at the business end of the race.

  30. GG

    [There’s always a horse in front at the first time past the post in the Melbourne Cup that finsishes near last at the business end of the race.]

    Might and Power?

  34. [There’s always a horse in front at the first time past the post in the Melbourne Cup that finsishes near last at the business end of the race.]

    yep, normally the ones i back

    🙁

  35. Don’t forget the standard response – this one’s got to be an outlier! Seriously, it does look a bit out of the ordinary. Also the hysteria in the media must be having an effect. Heard George Fungus tonight (TV was in the next rooms) blathering on about government in crisis, etc. If even he’s getting infected with this virus, the media is in a seriously decrepit state.

  37. [Expect to hear the phrase “long game” quite a bit over the next few weeks.]

    Dio, can one use ‘long game’ and ‘few weeks’ in the same sentence (apart from the fact that you just did)?

  38. Diogs,

    If you were listening it was said over the previous weeks too.

    This means cliches are always useful when you haven’t got something original to say.

  40. G
    If the night of the 6.5 star generals team has stepped into the field of punctuation, I am out of it. Their firing squads are something horrible.

  45. [Boerwar
    Posted Friday, June 17, 2011 at 9:49 pm | Permalink
    Fear not, comrades.

    This is the lull, before the lull, before the lull, before the, um….]

    I think you’re being unduly pessimistic.

  46. But if it was an 18 point lead to Labor, there’d be mass celebrations here, and no talk of the poll being an outlier.
    Even if you take into account a 3% margin of error, Labor’s still more than 10 points behind, on a 2PP basis.
    I don’t see how this is good for Gillard.

  47. [Obscene, egregious numbers for Labor. Gillard should resign, or call an election forthwith.]

    funny that

    when howie was at 40/60 you seemed happy for him to rule on

    👿

  50. Just like GP’s posts – this poll is the result of the Four Corners Expose of the Live Cattle Trade and the banning of same – we are seeing the sudden sympathy for Farmers being played out in the polls.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 1 of 78
1 2 … 78