Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Newspoll is Labor’s equal worst since the Rudd government came to power: the Coalition lead is out to 55-45 from 52-48 a fortnight ago (matching Labor’s previous nadir of April 1-3), from primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor (one point higher than the poll of March 4-5), 46 per cent for the Coalition (equalling the previous peak of May 13-15) and 11 per cent for the Greens (down three after a four-point increase in the previous poll). The poll also confirms the picture from Essential Research of Julia Gillard’s personal ratings hitting new lows: her approval rating is down five points to 30 per cent and her disapproval is up one to 55 per cent, while Tony Abbott is respectively down two to 35 per cent and down one to 52 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is now just 41-38, down from 44-37 a fortnight ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,524 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  2. i thought to nights 7 pm news was one of the worst i have seen, re julia, what was Kevin doing where was he in that get up
    then Julia and a photo was that photo taken at the same time or was it just put together it looked odd. but both photos very unflattering, i just felt despair then we had abbott saying somthing about trusting your FM ect,

    o abc how you have changed

    this wasnt the news,

  3. Finns

    I am with you. The Greek peoples did not know what their politicians were doing? As if. If you borrow to fly now pay later, then you should pay later, not whinge about it.

    I notice that people are watching Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Spain.

    But, but, but… what about eastern Europe?

    BTW, have patented ‘grass’ in the reasonable expectation that a lot of it is going to be needed around the eurozone periphery

  4. 4373—interesting article, thanks. Pretty good except of course gravitas has to rear its head in there:

    [And Julia Gillard has nothing like the authority and credibility that John Howard had even in his most troubled times.]

  6. [The Finnigans
    Posted Friday, June 17, 2011 at 7:50 pm | Permalink
    The Greeks do not deserve to be rescued:

    1. They dont want to pay tax
    2. They want to bludge on the systems
    3. They are corrupt
    4. They are inefficient
    5. They live in Disneyland

    I say let them eat grass.]

    But there’re not all bad. They are credited with inventing democracy & Venizelos should arguably do a better job at finance than Papconstantinou.

  8. I have been amongst the many others who have underestimated Tony Abbott: he has clearly not only survived as LOTO, but thrived. But given his personality and policy defects, one must ask why that is.

    Almost every journalist in the country treated it like an elaborate joke when he was elected LOTO. We all – journos included – expected him to implode in short time, to be replaced either by Turnbull or Hockey. When he didn’t, people started to give him credit for it and then to actually root for him: he was the intellectual and “skills” underdog in any fight, so they gave him undue kudos for just surviving and showing a degree of mettle they did not think him capable of.

    The way he goes about things; the practical upshot of the effect of his style of politics upon the mood (and sanity) of the electorate has been given no import. The very fact that he has lasted so long seems to have given his every utterance with an undeserved reverence from our media. But how much would or could he have achieved without a lazy, compliant media that hangs on his every word without any scrutiny, despite his admitted difficulties with the truth?

    This has been the way the media have dealt with Abbott, especially over the past year:

    When he contradicts his own previously stated positions; “see – it proves he isn’t actually an ideologue!”

    When he admits he regularly tells people what they want to hear, rather than tell the truth; “he’s refreshingly honest”.

    When he spends months trying to weasel his way out of his promised surfing lesson just because it was gifted to an asylum seeker; “well, we don’t know this history and we’re not interested anyway, but look! He’s done it now … what a hero!”

    If he bashes the government, even for things they are doing we are in favour of, we’re still there with him, patting him on the head reassuringly; “good on ya, Tony! Give ’em hell!”

    If Tony tells us the parliament is unworkable, despite the passage of over 100 bills … “well, who are we to argue? Parliament question time is certainly very noisy – there must be problems. What we need is a new election to sort things out …”

    Every section of the media – with the sole exception of the blogosphere – is infected with Abbott Fever. It is utterly depressing to pick up a paper or to watch the news when everything is reported through the prism of the latest Abbott brainfart. Even when government announcements are initially reported positively (because they are a good idea – like plain packaging) it doesn’t take long before Tony has decided on his position and voila! the media narrative changes overnight to support his arguments. If they really can’t support him, the issue just gets dropped and they go back to “Is Rudd planning a leadership coup?”

    I’ve got to say I’m getting really bloody sick of it. I know this government isn’t perfect (no government is) but I want one journalist – just one – to explain to me how we are doing so well compared to the rest of the world if the last 4 years has been the total shemozzle they tell us it has been.

    I would also like to ask them if they really WANT Abbott as PM. I suspect they would round on him quick smart once he was actually in the job, but while he is just an underdog contender, they will continue to root for him.

    Shits me to tears.

  10. Finnigans,

    I see watch you mean. The article mentioned bonds, in the finance world, Greece is a country known for debt. Ironically enough, the acronym for Greece and other countries known for the debt is PIGS. Thought I’d mention that.

  11. [Posted Friday, June 17, 2011 at 7:47 pm | Permalink
    Superb work from @haydencooper

    Samamama is certifiable.]

    i sat there disgusted

  13. Finnigans,

    I see what* you mean. The article mentioned bonds, in the finance world, Greece is a country known for their* debt. Ironically enough, the acronym for Greece and other countries known for their* debt is PIGS. Thought I’d mention that.

    Sorry for the typos.

  15. Cuppa
    .
    “On one hand they boast of the rorts they have perpetrated against tax, first home owners grants, govt contracts, etc and on the other they incessantly moan about the rorts that reffos and single mothers ”
    .
    Whoah giving me flashbacks. I was in the building game in the 1980’s when tradies becoming subbies was all the rage. That is so absolutely exactly what they were like back then. Slagging of single mums (the bogey of the day) and dole bludgers whilst in the same breath boasting of how they rort the tax system. Not to mention how they treated their workers. It came as a real surprise to me (as a BLF member) to realise and see with my own eyes that it was not the big nasty companies like Multiplex that screwed workers it was all those bloody tradies set up as subbies. So to conclude. It has been happening for a while. It was not all Johnny Howards fault for the rise of bogan graspirationals.

  16. [4356 vp
    Posted Friday, June 17, 2011 at 7:47 pm | Permalink
    Superb work from @haydencooper

    Samamama is certifiable.]

    what do you think she means vp superb work

  19. [rishane

    Well, she couldn’t have, could she – she’s a female. Blecch!]

    Prettymuch! (and according to certain Liberal MPs if she gets people to go along with her rather than having persuaded them that means they’re ‘pussy-whipped’.) Of course, sexism doesn’t exist anymore in this country. Julie Bishop told me. 😉

  20. Blossom

    Please do not listen to vp.

    We have extremely high standards of grammar, punctuation and the expressive use of language on Bludgers.

  21. I would also like to ask them if they really WANT Abbott as PM. I suspect they would round on him quick smart once he was actually in the job, but while he is just an underdog contender, they will continue to root for him.

    Shits me to tears.

    Danny your right, but we just have to suck it up, for now at least.

    Gillard has no alternative but keep bringing Labors program into law over the next 27 months.

    After that if people want abbott as PM, thats who it will be.

  24. ” If you borrow to fly now pay later, then you should pay later, not whinge about it.”

    How strange those Greeks are. Thank god it never happens here, when the going gets bad.

  28. does any one understand this, my oh still says to me, why arent labor telling their story, it doesnt matter how many times i try to explain whats going on he doesnt get it.
    becauce he works all day and does and want look at the internet for news ( head in sand) but cannot get his head around what is happening, he says he knows but then a few days latter will say , but why didnt labor come out and say xyz
    i say they did. and then to night i tried to explain that if the media did not ask kev about leader ship now one would talk about, its so manufactured.

    any one else have this proplem in their house hold.

  31. Apple Blossom

    Take no notice of Boerwar, he has an excellent line in irony.
    Now if you really want criticism of your spelling/grammar, I’m one of the resident pedants. (But I only come out on the full moon 😡 )

  33. [We have extremely high standards of grammar, punctuation and the expressive use of language on Bludgers.]

    what do you mean by “we”, white man

  37. [al palster
    Posted Friday, June 17, 2011 at 2:51 pm | Permalink

    Victoria,
    With Georgiou and Baird out of Parliament and Troeth finishing up there’s no one on the Libs side with the balls to speak out on this issue of mandatory detention. The race to the bottom – from both sides – is now complete. A national disgrace that is recognized around the globe.]

    Russell Broadbent has made it clear he will NOT support Nauru. Hasn’t ever been outspoken about it but he’s pretty firm. Moylan was in the past, but Frank thinks she’s gone to water. Agree it is grim.

    What I’ve found a bit trying is that JV and the Greens have been so bitter and outspoken about the Malaysia option. Of course it’s a terrible option and an avoidance of our responsibilities and compassion. But absolutely nothing can be done with this situation until race politics is removed from the agenda. And although there’s some political risks, this offers a chance of ‘stopping the boats’. Without that getting any oxygen there is a chance of restoring some sanity and compassion to the issue. The ‘swap’ details is evidence enough that the government is bringing good faith to the concerns and not some sort of ‘Lindsay Listening’.

    As vic said, Howard poisoned the well, to his benefit but at enormous cost to everyone else. It was the most divisive and disgusting politics we have seen since Billy Hughes in WW1 with conscription and imbecilic Germanic phobia. That Abbott and Morrison have taken it up so eagerly is a very sad thing for the Australian polity.

  42. Finns

    The legal team of Finns, Boerwar & Co has informed the Board of Directors, of which we are co-chairs, that crossing the ‘ts’ and dotting the ‘is’ is frightfully important.

    Who** (or could it possibly be whom?) are we to argue?

    lizzie

    A pedantication, should it please you.

  43. Good thoughtful analysis Danny Lewis. Nothing to add except on this piece:

    [I would also like to ask them {journalists} if they really WANT Abbott as PM. I suspect they would round on him quick smart once he was actually in the job, but while he is just an underdog contender, they will continue to root for him.]

    I believe they DO want him in the top job. Being lazy slobs obsessed with gaffes rather than journalism, these so-called journalists see him as a work-saver. Imagine all the gaffes he’d come out with under the pressure of the job. It would be impossible for a his minders, no matter how hard they tried, to keep him on a leash short enough. He’d be under constant pressure (though not from the media, at least initially), he’d have to speak impromptu and at length throughout every day without respite, he’d find it impossible to flee from questioning as he does now, and eventually he’d find himself in the unaccustomed position of being … gasp … criticised, if mildly, by the media. No amount of stage-management would be able to stifle the flood of gaffes that would emanate from him. All the “journalists” would have to do is … quote the gaffes. Easy! The stories/headlines would practically write themselves. It’d be a dream come true for the bums of the “media”.

  45. [What I’ve found a bit trying is that JV and the Greens have been so bitter and outspoken about the Malaysia option. ]

    For the simple political reason that like the Libs – once the boats are stopped they will have one less issue to beat Labor over the head with.

  47. Erm…William,

    I’ve been meaning to ask you, what is your little display picture of? All I know is that it isn’t you…

  49. [4434 vp
    Posted Friday, June 17, 2011 at 8:28 pm | Permalink
    my say,

    It’s OK to feel a little down. When things come to rights, as they will, you’ll feel that much better.]

    thanks vp.. i hope thats soon very soon, its all so draining even my creative side is blocked.

    night all

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