GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Newspoll is Labor’s equal worst since the Rudd government came to power: the Coalition lead is out to 55-45 from 52-48 a fortnight ago (matching Labor’s previous nadir of April 1-3), from primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor (one point higher than the poll of March 4-5), 46 per cent for the Coalition (equalling the previous peak of May 13-15) and 11 per cent for the Greens (down three after a four-point increase in the previous poll). The poll also confirms the picture from Essential Research of Julia Gillard’s personal ratings hitting new lows: her approval rating is down five points to 30 per cent and her disapproval is up one to 55 per cent, while Tony Abbott is respectively down two to 35 per cent and down one to 52 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is now just 41-38, down from 44-37 a fortnight ago.
Gary
And this poll can also go onto the end of Possum’s trend graph. I think it shows further confirmation of the existing trend.
It must be a rogue poll……..surely Labor is really ahead by 10 points. 😉
Awful, awful poll.
Yet, I am not that concerned. If we are around that figure in a years time, I’ll start panicking.
Perhaps the voters are saying indirectly they demand proportional representation in the HoR. Neither big party leader is bobbing high in the water.
Or rather, they would demand it if the parties and media would ever discuss it maturely as an option.
[Perhaps the voters are saying indirectly they demand proportional representation in the HoR.]
Full marks for creativity, JV.
These poll figures are like a mutant and resistant strain of swine flu. They both make people feel quite sick, but this is the last thing needed:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/06/14/3243858.htm?section=justin
evan14 @ 2
Well you’ve certainly done it this time you dill!
Preferring that Rudd was still there but accepting the reality of Julia Gillard now being PM is one thing but you are quite another.
Your undisguised glee at a result that should be of serious concern to Labor supporters regardless of their views on the leadership show you for what you really are.
Frank, my apologies, you were right about this clown.
How did Katter’s Australian Party (AKA One Nation + a Hat) do in the poll???
The Government hasn’t got control of the policy agenda, and it’s losing the media battle.
The asylum seeker stuff in particular is killing them, more so than the carbon tax.
And one continual failing of Gillard is the propensity to announce policy before all the details have been ironed out – wouldn’t it have been smarter not to announce the Malaysian deal before it’d been ready to be negotiated on between the two countries?
I wonder if a cabinet reshuffle wouldn’t be a bad idea, or at least shift a few of the truly dud ministers, like Joe Ludwig, Garrett, even Swan.
William
Thank you – but if only it was a real question in the polling. 😀
[8
Glen
Posted Tuesday, June 14, 2011 at 11:13 pm | Permalink
How did Katter’s Australian Party (AKA One Nation + a Hat) do in the poll???
]
The “Others” might give you a clue.
If this poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday, I think Faulkner’s speech and the reaction to it would have played a part in the result.
[How did Katter’s Australian Party (AKA One Nation + a Hat) do in the poll???]
As well as Pauline Hanson’s latest failed attempt to get an Upper House seat. 😆
[The “Others” might give you a clue.]
But the Breakdown dear Frank…the Breakdown.
Bemused: I take no pleasure in polls like this, just a grim satisfaction that the events of June 24 last year haven’t been vindicated.
spur212 @12
I doubt it.
Such things are of interest only to those seriously interested in politics. I doubt most punters have any awareness.
[12
spur212
Posted Tuesday, June 14, 2011 at 11:15 pm | Permalink
If this poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday, I think Faulkner’s speech and the reaction to it would have played a part in the result.
]
Oh and that as well – Thanks John – you and your big mouth 🙁
[Thank you – but if only it was a real question in the polling.]
Careful what you wish for, JV. I have no doubt at all you’d be bitterly disappointed.
[Gary
Posted Tuesday, June 14, 2011 at 10:45 pm | Permalink
This idea they haven’t sold it properly is BS to say the least. They’ve had this timetable from the word go and they’re following it. The details will be announced in a matter of a few weeks.]
If, as you say, the ALP is selling its carbon tax and its timetable, the polls and poll trend should be better than they are.
Political tragics may be aware of the sell and the timetable, but in my experience not too many others do.
[bemused
Posted Tuesday, June 14, 2011 at 11:17 pm | Permalink
spur212 @12
If this poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday, I think Faulkner’s speech and the reaction to it would have played a part in the result.
I doubt it.
Such things are of interest only to those seriously interested in politics. I doubt most punters have any awareness.
]
I reckon it would’ve been a small factor- but the killer reason for me has been Cowgate – and event orchestrated and manipulated by Their ABC.
evan14 @ 15
Rubbish. I can pick the difference between glee and grim satisfaction.
If you were fair dinkum you might feel regret that Rudd got deposed but you certainly would take no satisfaction, grim or otherwise, in such poll results.
It’s a failure of process & proper policy formulation/delivery – that’s what is hurting Labor.
Yes, Abbott is a phoney and a politicial lightweight, and he’s gotten a dream run from the media, BUT Labor are making it easy for Tony.
Good Night Bludgers. Catch you on the flipside!
evan14 @ 23
Your analysis and doesn’t it make you happy!
[26
bemused
Posted Tuesday, June 14, 2011 at 11:23 pm | Permalink
evan14 @ 23
It’s a failure of process & proper policy formulation/delivery – that’s what is hurting Labor.
Yes, Abbott is a phoney and a politicial lightweight, and he’s gotten a dream run from the media, BUT Labor are making it easy for Tony.
Your analysis and doesn’t it make you happy!
]
I wonder if both Glen and Evan are both joined at the Hip ?
They both share the same lack of political nous.
[I wonder if a cabinet reshuffle wouldn’t be a bad idea, or at least shift a few of the truly dud ministers]
I do think the PM needs to rethink Rudd in the Cabinet. He is clearly not being a team player, and his refusal to implement the govt’s policy agenda wrt AS must be deeply disturbing to his fellow Cabinet colleagues.
His actions the past year are a pretty good indication to the outside world of just what he was like to his Caucus members.
[Oh and that as well – Thanks John – you and your big mouth 🙁 ]
To be fair, it wasn’t so much the speech that was the problem as the way it was spun as yet more ‘LABOR IS EATING ITSELF’ stories. I still think the situation can be turned around, but the continued low polls are annoying, and just guaranteed to keep the ‘Rudd was wrongly murdered!’ crowd crowing. On the upshot, if Gillard’s playing the long game, best to take the hits earlier than later, and better to actually get things done than just enjoying popularity.
evan14:
Your fixation with Rudd’s replacement reminds me of the comedy gig Magda Szubanski used to feature in. The one where she plays a CNN anchor and goes around the US saying hello to other correspondents and then in five minutes she’s back where she started from with no news whatsoever other than identifying the other correspondents.
[His actions the past year are a pretty good indication to the outside world of just what he was like to his Caucus members. ]
Weird how so many forget that.
Spur212:
I would doubt anyone took any notice of Faulkner’s speech. What would’ve cut through is the reporting of it as Labor in turmoil.
[rishane
Posted Tuesday, June 14, 2011 at 11:25 pm | Permalink
His actions the past year are a pretty good indication to the outside world of just what he was like to his Caucus members.
Weird how so many forget that.
]
Creful now those statements will REALLY get Evan and TP going.
Kev is a Saced cow according to them – he can do no wrong.
Stephen Smith 4 PM!
You can talk about how far away the next election is, or subscribe to JV’s creativity, but at some point you have to cede to the realisation that the government is in trouble.
[confessions
Posted Tuesday, June 14, 2011 at 11:26 pm | Permalink
Spur212:
I would doubt anyone took any notice of Faulkner’s speech. What would’ve cut through is the reporting of it as Labor in turmoil.
]
Especially Rudd’s response to it – behaving like a whinging kid who got his sligshot confiscated.
Confessions: Yes, it’s obviously a brilliant time for a byelection in the seat of Griffith. 😆
Frank
“Kev is a Saced cow according to them – he can do no wrong.”
There was no warm and cuddly killing for kev the cow lol
[
33
Dr Phibes
Posted Tuesday, June 14, 2011 at 11:28 pm | Permalink
You can talk about how far away the next election is, or subscribe to JV’s creativity, but at some point you have to cede to the realisation that the government is in trouble.
]
Look at History, Beazley and Latham were enjoying similar polling numbers to what Abbott is atm.
Do you see PM’s Latham and Beazley at all ??
[I wonder if a cabinet reshuffle wouldn’t be a bad idea, or at least shift a few of the truly dud ministers]
Out of interest who in your view are the ‘truly dud ministers?’
If Rudd was to leave in a fit of pique by resigning from Parliament not even 1 year after pledging commitment to Griffith voters, it would simply be further evidence of how self absorbed he really is.
Goodnight all.
The problem with turning off Gillard and Labor is that I don’t have any theories as to why her Personal approval should drop in the last two weeks.
I mean, what exactly has happened that is so Gillard-specific?
was it that crap on 60 mins? (I’m tempted to say ‘no’ because it was on Sunday night after the polling, but there were an awful lot of adds for it during the week).
Was the trembling, soon to be dead, cattle?
Was it Swanie’s sneak preview of how the Carbon tax is going to run from the press club? Garnaut’ s increably helpful suggestion that Carbon tax should be the basis for a wholesale restructure of our personal income tax regime?
I can’t tell, I’ve just switched off totally.
I do not subscribe to the view that Labor cannot change leaders again. Not for Rudd, but I agree with Glen: anyone who can manage the Defence Portfolio can handle the Prime Ministership. Mr Combet would also make a good alternative. If the CT details don’t change the polls, leadership rumblings will get louder.
Dud Ministers: Ludwig(not up to it), Garrett(time he went back to Midnight Oil), Arbib(non-performer), Chris Evans(useless), Swan(poor parliamentary performer).
People deserving of promotion: Mike Kelly, Andrew Leigh, Amanda Risworth, Mark Dreyfuss.
[Was the trembling, soon to be dead, cattle?]
You hit the nail on the head.
Note the calls from all sections of the meda for a Ban- and once it was done – a 180 degree turn around that it was wrong and a “Kneejerk Reaction.
Expecially as this whole issue was conflated with the Muslim issue.
8
Not “a hat” but “The Hat”.
Another who should go: Robert McClelland.
Cute. Gillard Labor is failing pretty badly so go spitefully kick Rudd. Sort of saying Rudd shaking a tree causes the wind. Rudd has been one of the Government’s better performers.
The more Gillard Labor fails the more people will want to put the boot of blame into Rudd as a means of denial of the improper blindness of her role in making this awful mess of Labor.
At this stage of the game there is absolutely nobody you can blame for Labor’s position except for Gillard. Goodness how can anybody not lay Labor’s failure at her door is beyond me. Rudd got a couple of bad polls before the recovered and people here a quite happy to rest on that as the justification of booting a popularly elected PM. Yet Gillard has had a year of terrible polls and lost Labor credibility in just about every area, the same facets that Rudd took from negative or borderline to clear leadership.
As I have said earlier – mid year was about the time I thought Gillard would be replaced. One more poll like this and their will be audible Labor rumblings reaching the media.
How about people just for once admit that Gillard IS the problem here.
Also have to reject the notion that everybody here has to be one eyed Labor supporters or that because you voted Labor last time you are a traitor if you don’t then follow everything Labor does with blind devotion.
The polls are bad? Then the ALP government must be doing the right things.
[43
evan14
Posted Tuesday, June 14, 2011 at 11:37 pm | Permalink
Dud Ministers: Ludwig(not up to it), Garrett(time he went back to Midnight Oil), Arbib(non-performer), Chris Evans(useless), Swan(poor parliamentary performer).
People deserving of promotion: Mike Kelly, Andrew Leigh, Amanda Risworth, Mark Dreyfuss.
]
note the pattern of te Dudd ministers – all supposedly linked to the “Dumoping” of St Kev the omnipresent.
Pull the other one – it plays this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qudBB6haJw
Your REAL political Home Evan.
Someone must have flipped over that stinking heap called the Liberal Party. All the maggots have fallen out.