Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Newspoll is Labor’s equal worst since the Rudd government came to power: the Coalition lead is out to 55-45 from 52-48 a fortnight ago (matching Labor’s previous nadir of April 1-3), from primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor (one point higher than the poll of March 4-5), 46 per cent for the Coalition (equalling the previous peak of May 13-15) and 11 per cent for the Greens (down three after a four-point increase in the previous poll). The poll also confirms the picture from Essential Research of Julia Gillard’s personal ratings hitting new lows: her approval rating is down five points to 30 per cent and her disapproval is up one to 55 per cent, while Tony Abbott is respectively down two to 35 per cent and down one to 52 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is now just 41-38, down from 44-37 a fortnight ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,524 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. poroti @ 4440.

    Tsk, tsk, tsk.

    You have missed a space after a comma. You have written two sentences as if they were one sentence. There is a verb missing from yet another sentence. The Bludger Puncuation and Grammar Disciplinary Committee has therefore awarded you three demerit points.

    This will result in yet another delay in the awarding of your much-anticipated elephant stamp.


    Please avert your eyes from Poroti’s post @ 4440.

  2. (Muffled by blanket. Arm sticks out with finger pointing to #4440.)
    But what about that dreaded word ‘pronunciation’?
    (Thrashes in agony.)

  3. [Danny Lewis
    Posted Friday, June 17, 2011 at 8:12 pm | Permalink
    I have been amongst the many others who have underestimated Tony Abbott: he has clearly not only survived as LOTO, but thrived. But given his personality and policy defects, one must ask why that is.]

    You make some good points.

    I too think he’s been underrated.

    I put some of his success down to his Jesuit education; his sporting pursuits (mainly boxing); his short career as a journalist; and, his political master Howard.

    He has managed to fool over half of the electorate with his ability to make blunder after blunder yet he picks himself up from the mat and punches on regardless. Before he can be scrutinised properly, he’s quickly onto the next stunt. In short, he doesn’t play the game according to the rules and this I think is part of his appeal for some.

    Like him or loathe him he’s proving he’s a force to be reckoned with and I don’t think even his own side of politics thought that he could achieve what he has thus far.

    That said, although he’s narrowing the gap as preferred PM, when people have to seriously consider who should govern this country, I have a gut feeling they won’t pick Tony Abbott.

  4. Cuppa: I know I’ve asked this question before, but where have all the GOOD journalists gone? Yes, there are a handful still there – and there are some, like Laura Tingle and George Mega – who are actually pretty exceptional. But investigative journalism as a distinct skill within the profession seems to have died a death.

    What this country needs is a blogosphere revolt: use Facebook and twitter to link to articles that provide fact rather than opinion. Praise the good journalists fulsomely and shame the lazy hacks.

    It would help if the government could bed down some sort of tighter media ownership rules over the next couple of years as well, preferably involving forcing Murdoch to relinquish some of his interests. Yes, they would be in for a hell of a fight, but they really do have nothing to lose.

  5. Apple Blossom
    “I think who is subjective and whom is objective, so I am guessing it’s “Who are we to argue”
    Oy mate. Whattup ? I have been well assured by legions of old fogeys and sundry shock jocks that any knowledge of grammar and the use of “correct English’ was banished from our schools long ago by socialist pinko teachers.

  6. Gdunny while I agree with much of what you say and I don’t for a second think it either a complete solution or a perfect step the malaysian compromise swaps 8 needy for each 1 random that is lucky enough or resourced enough to show up here.

    It discourages dangerous and foolish boat trips and reduces the business case for others to try and extort them for a trip here.

    It also is a possible step towards a more unified regional approach.

    I am sick of the self-righteous people who agree we are in a bad place but won’t do anything but abuse a step unless it is all the way to moral perfection.

    It is nice to have narrow minded dogmatic fundamental type religious people and greens to show us the way of righteousness and we even have to let them vote but they are clearly unsuited to politics and should just stay in church or their tofu commune and pray to god or assange and Dawkins as they see fit.

    Clearly g dunny I’m not including you in this group.

  7. Boerwar 4454
    “poroti @ 4440.
    Tsk, tsk, tsk.”
    Um , would you believe it was a deliberate mistake ? Insert embarrassed cough x 3

  8. Finns
    If the Finns, Boerwar & Co marketing and communications team needs another baffler, Blossom may be just the person.

  9. poroti

    The Committee has awarded you another demerit point for deliberately debasing the language.

    Please be advised that there is now no immediate prospect of an elephant stamp.

  10. Charlton: yes, the boxing analogies are not lost on me either. He really is the classic underdog, until you actually look at his life and realise there has been far more privilege than deprivation.

    The funny thing is that when Abbott was a Minister – particularly Health Minister – his upbringing quite obviously was informing both his style and decision-making. The things he was personally opposed to, he opposed as Minister. Anything he was in favour of, he pursued with gusto.

    But since he has been LOTO, all his principles have vanished.

    Who is he? What does he stand for? What does he believe in?

    In two years he has gone from a man of principle who walked the walk to a man who stands for exactly nothing – except gaining power for its own sake.

  11. Boerwar
    “If the Finns, Boerwar & Co marketing and communications team needs another baffler, Blossom may be just the person”
    Like this ?

  12. danny

    I am trying to convince kudelka via twitter to do

    “101 uses for an aussie journo”

    It should be easy

    just substitute aussie journo for howard


  13. [Dear Frank

    I wanted to let you know that earlier today the ALP National Executive resolved to refer the Recommendations of the 2010 ALP National Review Report by Senator John Faulkner and former Labor Premiers Steve Bracks and Bob Carr to the ALP National Conference in December for debate and determination by Delegates.
    Have your say on George’s Blog

    Have your say on George’s Blog

    I believe this decision is the right way for the Party to progress the outcomes of the Review Report.

    Pleasingly, this is also consistent with what Steve Bracks, Bob Carr and John Faulkner said should happen with the Recommendations of their Report.

    The 2010 National Review Report and its Recommendations for growing and rebuilding the Labor Party were released on February 18 this year.

    The Review was the largest ever conducted by the ALP and received 800 formal submissions, saw hundreds of members attend Party forums and over 3,500 online supporters participating.

    Labor’s triennial National Conference is the Party’s highest decision making body.

    In the lead up to Conference I would encourage all interested members to continue to consider the Recommendations of the 2010 National Review Report and to provide feedback and input to your delegates to National Conference.

    George Wright
    National Secretary of the Australian Labor Party]

  14. Apple Blossom
    “Why am I supposedly a suitable candidate for this “baffler” position?’
    Because as a young pup you defy all stereotypes by knowing something/ANYTHING about grammar. Curmudgeons and grammar nazis have long assured us that peoples like you know nothing of such things. Hence you will baffle.

  15. The Finnigans 4362…Re the Greeks,,
    We should beware of making generalized statements about a people like”The Greeks” as if they all did the same bad things
    In Greece,the rich elite borrowed wildly and paid no taxes,and the bankers worst of all,combined with a corrupt political elite,of which the Socialists are a part

    (The Socialist PM(Papandreou is by the way the son and grandson of two former PMs)
    I dare say the pensioners and low paid workers were not the elite buying up on the loan markets…but they are being asked to pay the

    Pensions and wages cut/higher GST/high taxes..all will reduce the lower levels to the standards of a poor third world country ,which is what Greece will be..and a bond-burden owing that will never be paid of, so all Govt spending will be forever reduced…,etc. and 100.000 public servants to be sacked ….and all this pain to keep the bankers solvent

    Perhaps one could raise funds by having public executions of wealthy bankers!!

    Actually one ought to realise that in Europe in the depression of the 1930ies in a similar climate… the Nazis made much of the role in Austria of Rothschilds Bank in the collapse of Credit Anstallt a Viennese bank…in which many working people in Germany too…lost their small savings and investments
    A similar crisis had happened a generation earlier in France,at the time of the Dreyfus affair,when a Fund run by Rothschilds and linked to the Catholic Church …collapsed. with all it’s funds
    It fueled French anti-semitism during the Dreyfus affair, supported by many of the
    Catholic clergy..and did so until the Vichy regime in WW2.

    So lets not forget the power of these crisis to derange the public mind
    The Greek Socialist govt is collapsing. It will be better to default and make the bankers pay…though it will shake the world’s system of banking…and if you have a fall in your Super -investments… you will lose as we all did in 2007 after Lehmann Bros collapsed

  16. From the article:

    [For a Labor supporter, the latest poll numbers are horrific. The Herald/Nielsen poll, taken this week and published today, shows Labor’s primary vote at 27 per cent, just over a quarter of voters and the lowest level ever for a major party in the poll’s history of almost four decades.

    The Coalition’s primary vote is a massive 49 per cent, higher than Labor’s two-party-preferred 41 per cent. The Coalition’s two-party preferred vote is 59 per cent. These are the same levels as seen at the NSW election in March and would result in a similar destruction of Labor should an election be held now.

    Read more:

    Something is smelling rottten for it to be getting those figures.

  17. Oh, sh!t:
    [GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 41 (-3) L/NP 59 (+3) #auspol ]
    [GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll Primary Votes: ALP 27 (-4) L/NP 49 (+2) #auspol ]

  18. [GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll Primary Votes: ALP 27 (-4) L/NP 49 (+2) #auspol ]

    looks like it’s the Kattert influence ie LNP only getting 2% of the 4% that Labor dropped.

  19. Poroti

    [anti grammar nazi liberation front]

    Tsk, tsk. The Committee may have to send you to a re-education camp.

    I understand that the Nazis were not anti-grammar, per se, being rather sedulous about rules.

  20. Danny Lewis @ 4463:

    I don’t know about you but I turned off politics after Howard was first elected. Every time he appeared on the TV or radio, I’d switch channels. I couldn’t bear to see or hear him & I feel exactly the same way about Abbott, who gets the same treatment.

    Conversely, although I haven’t forgiven Fraser, I never felt the same about him or any other Liberal leader from Holt through to Hewson (I was around in Menzies’ time but too green to have an opinion). It’s just something about Howard and Abbott which raises my blood pressure to dangerous levels.

    It is said that the Australian electorate never gets it wrong. I live in hope they won’t in 2013.

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