Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46

Relatively good news for Labor from Newspoll, which shows the Coalition’s eight point two-party lead cut to four. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 34 per cent and the Coalition down two to 44 per cent, while the Greens have shot up four points to 14 per cent. Two points of this gain seems to be a correction after an anomaly last time; it could be that the other two show there’s some sort of an audience for criticism of News Limited. Personal ratings are essentially unchanged: Gillard’s approval up one to 35 per cent, disapproval down one to 54 per cent, Abbott is down one to 37 per cent and up two to 53 per cent, and Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead is up from 42-38 to 44-37. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

Today’s Essential Research wasn’t as kind to Labor, though the different time frames should be noted: Newspoll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, whereas the survey period for the more recent half of the Essential result covered Wednesday to Sunday. The Coalition lead was up from 53-47 to 54-46, but since the primary votes were unchanged (Coalition 47 per cent, Labor 34 per cent, Greens 12 per cent), there is obviously not much in this. The poll also turned up another painful personal result for Gillard, who trails Kevin Rudd as preferred Labor leader by 32 per cent to 23 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull likewise leads Tony Abbott, but by a lesser margin of 25 per cent to 22 per cent. As usual, Rudd and Turnbull secured their leads off the back of supporters of the other party.

We also get results on which party represents the interests of various groups, which show Labor holding modest leads for various manifestions of Joe Public and the Liberals maintaining brand recognition as the party of business and the wealthy. The Liberals however hold an interesting 31 per cent to 19 per cent lead on “the next generation of Australians”, which I can only assume represents a belief they will leave them with less debt. Yet another question on support for the carbon tax finds a spike in its favour last week to have been aberration: support is down three to 38 per cent and opposition up four to 48 per cent, almost exactly where it was two polls ago. On the question of whether an early election should be held as a result of the carbon tax, opinion is perfectly evenly divided on 42 per cent, with “yes” up two and “no” down two since the question was last asked in March.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,386 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46”

Comments Page 3 of 68
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  4. sus

    the fact word was out that newspoll was out yesterday and yet wasnt released just reinforces that newspoll is released early ONLY if its good for the fibs

    today just added more weight to the argument

  5. Thanks for your thoughts, BH, good night to all Poll Bludgers,
    William, a psephy question, if I may, and when you have the time to respond. How do rolling samples compare, e.g. Essential, if at all ,with other sampling methods? I understand there may not be any methodological comparisons available, but I would be interested in your views?

  7. [Gusface

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:54 pm | Permalink

    sus

    the fact word was out that newspoll was out yesterday and yet wasnt released just reinforces that newspoll is released early ONLY if its good for the fibs

    today just added more weight to the argument
    ]

    Polling was done Friday- Sunday.

  9. [Let’s just say that his message is starting to cut through]

    So instead of being 20 points behind, he’s now 18 points behind? 😉

  10. [109

    evan14

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:56 pm | Permalink

    Let’s just say that his message is starting to cut through

    So instead of being 20 points behind, he’s now 18 points behind?
    ]

    Mock all you like – People have woken up to Col – he is only popular cos of the State’s Rights BS. domesticvally he is cactus.

  13. [in the howard years they would have reported a massive swing back to the government]

    This is one of the reasons for the decline in authority of the Australian as far as I’m concerned. Really, it is nothing more than a propaganda outlet for the Liberal party, or as one blog put it today, the tabloid that’s too big to read on the train.

  15. [the fact word was out that newspoll was out yesterday and yet wasnt released just reinforces that newspoll is released early ONLY if its good for the fibs

    today just added more weight to the argument]

    There is no weight to the argument, and nothing has been added to it. To repeat what I said the last time this rubbish got an airing:

    [I’ve reviewed the timing of Newspoll releases since the start of 2010. From then until mid-May, all eight polls were released on Tuesday, that being what was universally expected of them at the time. However, they then did a Monday release for May 14-16, went back to Tuesday for May 28-30, and then had seven successive releases on Mondays up until polling day. All but one of the eight polls post-election has been on a Tuesday, the exception being February 4-6 (two polls ago). All told, Labor’s average 2PP in the 16 polls which were released on Tuesdays was 51.31%. In the nine polls released on Mondays, it was 51.56%. In swing terms, the average Tuesday-released poll moved 0.26% away from Labor compared with the previous poll. The average swing in the Monday-released polls was 0%.

    Likely significance of the fact Newspoll is being published tomorrow rather than tonight: nil.]

  16. gordongrahamgordongraham

    after reading the Abbott interview with Michelle Grattan, I’m convinced that if he became PM, he’d be as inept as Malcolm Fraser #auspol

    1 minute agoFavoriteRetweetReply

    gordongrahamgordongraham

    interesting move from Abbott. A candid interview with Michelle Grattan on the long term http://bit.ly/ivqh8r #auspol

    5 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  22. [120

    William Bowe

    Posted Tuesday, May 31, 2011 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    btw I have based my assumption on the timeframe from 2006 to now

    Don’t make me laugh. You’ve pulled it out of your arse.
    ]

    I wasn’t aware Proctology was a unit in your Doctorate 🙂

  25. Port Adelaide FC about to fold. Looks like the SANFL will be left holding the baby.

    [THE SANFL can no longer bankroll the debt-ridden Port Adelaide Football Club and may take over the AFL club today.

    The Power’s financial crisis hit a flashpoint last night when the SANFL declared it had no reserves and no line of credit to underwrite the AFL club’s shaky finances.

    This devastating news was met with the instant resignation of John Irving, the independent adviser appointed by the SANFL to the Power board in June last year.

    Club president Brett Duncanson and chief executive Mark Haysman this morning could be forced to resign or face dismissal as the SANFL prepares to protect the AFL licence from being forfeited to the AFL.]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/afl/port-adelaide-football-club-runs-out-of-cash-sanfl-may-take-over/story-e6freco3-1226066003365

  29. Frank, if a turd of a poll result for the coalition has them with a comfortable lead on the 2PP (which translates into a solid majority) and a 10 point lead on primaries, i’d hate to see what a bad poll for labor is.

  31. [James J

    Posted Tuesday, May 31, 2011 at 12:18 am | Permalink

    Frank, if a turd of a poll result for the coalition has them with a comfortable lead on the 2PP (which translates into a solid majority) and a 10 point lead on primaries, i’d hate to see what a bad poll for labor is.
    ]

    *woosh*

  32. Has the feeding frenzy begun between the other AFL clubs?

    By the way, this will be the front page news on all the papers for the next five days.

    World War Three Starts – See Page Thirty Seven.

  33. [

    gordongrahamgordongraham

    Dennis Shanahan says no one is tuning into the PM’s message … yet the ALP are up in the polls … (he’s got 9 children to feed) #auspol

    13 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  34. [

    gordongrahamgordongraham

    FYI Dennis Shanahan blindfully (and willfully) disacknowledges the increase in Julia Gillard’s standing in the Preferred PM rating #auspol

    7 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  35. [

    gordongrahamgordongraham

    I’d like Dennis Shanahan to define a good poll for the ALP. My guess is that it’s an increase in the TPP of +5 … silly man #auspol

    5 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  37. [136

    Fulvio Sammut

    Posted Tuesday, May 31, 2011 at 12:29 am | Permalink

    Frank, the rule is, four contiguous posts, and you’re talking to yourself.
    ]

    Or those Vagaboni in the East have gone to bed – pikers.

    The night is young.

  40. Fulvio

    Perhaps News Ltd might want to break into the AFL market. The SANFL can’t afford a millstone like that around its neck. This won’t go down well in SA.

  41. All this does is weaken Turnbull. Most will read the drop for the coalition coming from the initial comments about direct action and the follow-up of the whip’s email.

    Back benchers will be hoping he pulls his head in and he won’t win any fans if he doesn’t.

  42. Funny the OOppo.

    They have a problem with a “rich” person like Cate Blanchete supporting a tax.

    But they dont have a problem with a “rich” person like Gina R opposing a tax.

  44. What if anything, do you think the political ramifications might be, Dio?

    Will the Government be expected to bail them out? If so, will the decision be bipartisan – I somehow don’t think Lab or the Libs could afford to turn their back on the only game in town.

    That might get the Rugby, Soccer, League mobs offside though. They may be small but they’re passionate and better organised at grass roots level than the arial ping pongers from my experience.

    Interesting.

  45. @ 140

    there is no way in the world that the AFL would let Murdoch and his idiotic mob take over an AFL licence, just look at the NRL teams they own as an example why not to let them take it over

    Just ship the team to Tassie where there is money for a team and a supporter base to have a profitable team

    Lets be honest here, Port Adelaide have had the lowest attendences at games over the last 5 years, have the worst finances in the competition and their team itself is a rabble at the moment. Dont think anyone would care too much if they were thrown out as they are the least supported side in the competition

  46. [Fulvio Sammut

    Posted Tuesday, May 31, 2011 at 12:44 am | Permalink

    What if anything, do you think the political ramifications might be, Dio?

    Will the Government be expected to bail them out? If so, will the decision be bipartisan – I somehow don’t think Lab or the Libs could afford to turn their back on the only game in town.

    That might get the Rugby, Soccer, League mobs offside though. They may be small but they’re passionate and better organised at grass roots level than the arial ping pongers from my experience.

    Interesting.
    ]

    Hmm Aren’t there 2 AFL sides in SA – The Crows and Port ?

    Why is Port in trouble and not the Crows ?

  47. [

    danielepintoDaniele Pinto

    by zombiemao

    #Italy’s local elections, official results: left-wing opposition candidate Giuliano #Pisapia takes the City of #Milan with 55%. #Berlusconi

    4 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  48. [

    gordongrahamgordongraham

    “Australian’s want Julia Gillard gone, latest Newspoll reveals” reports Phil Hudson … that would explain why her numbers went up #auspol

    6 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  49. Fulvio

    Rann and Foley are Power fans but no-one expected them to bail out Port last year so I think they’ll pass on helping out. It would set a bad precedent.

    It’s going to be monster news on SA.

  50. Not sure, Frank, I don’t follow the game. These things are usually caused by persistent failure to win games while the nearest opposition is travelling well.

    Australians love to back a winner and can be ruthless towards losers – same as in politics.

Comments are closed.

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