Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46

Relatively good news for Labor from Newspoll, which shows the Coalition’s eight point two-party lead cut to four. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 34 per cent and the Coalition down two to 44 per cent, while the Greens have shot up four points to 14 per cent. Two points of this gain seems to be a correction after an anomaly last time; it could be that the other two show there’s some sort of an audience for criticism of News Limited. Personal ratings are essentially unchanged: Gillard’s approval up one to 35 per cent, disapproval down one to 54 per cent, Abbott is down one to 37 per cent and up two to 53 per cent, and Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead is up from 42-38 to 44-37. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

Today’s Essential Research wasn’t as kind to Labor, though the different time frames should be noted: Newspoll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, whereas the survey period for the more recent half of the Essential result covered Wednesday to Sunday. The Coalition lead was up from 53-47 to 54-46, but since the primary votes were unchanged (Coalition 47 per cent, Labor 34 per cent, Greens 12 per cent), there is obviously not much in this. The poll also turned up another painful personal result for Gillard, who trails Kevin Rudd as preferred Labor leader by 32 per cent to 23 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull likewise leads Tony Abbott, but by a lesser margin of 25 per cent to 22 per cent. As usual, Rudd and Turnbull secured their leads off the back of supporters of the other party.

We also get results on which party represents the interests of various groups, which show Labor holding modest leads for various manifestions of Joe Public and the Liberals maintaining brand recognition as the party of business and the wealthy. The Liberals however hold an interesting 31 per cent to 19 per cent lead on “the next generation of Australians”, which I can only assume represents a belief they will leave them with less debt. Yet another question on support for the carbon tax finds a spike in its favour last week to have been aberration: support is down three to 38 per cent and opposition up four to 48 per cent, almost exactly where it was two polls ago. On the question of whether an early election should be held as a result of the carbon tax, opinion is perfectly evenly divided on 42 per cent, with “yes” up two and “no” down two since the question was last asked in March.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,386 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46”

Comments Page 2 of 68
1 2 3 68
  1. For those Bludgers familiar with a certain ” TRUTHIE ” who was a contributor here..this is his latest example of intelligence on the Crikey site.

    [TheTruthHurts
    Posted Monday, 30 May 2011 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    What a shame Michael Caton doesn’t believe in heart disease as much as he does a carbon tax.

    As for Cate. it’s great that Cate is following what she believes, but can she really expect the average Aussie to make $1.2 Million dollars in Green renovations like she did to her own home?]

    You will appreciate he will not get away with that rubbish.

  2. Boo Hoo.

    As Kevin Reynolds and the CFMEU once said:

    “We’re Coming Back.

    Peak Abbott has passed.

    Actually, you’re not. Not on this poll anyway.

    The major points improvement is with the Greens. That won’t be of any importance in the seats that matter. That is even if this improvement is a reality, which of course election history proves it’s highly unlikely.

    Note: please don’t try all the tough talk on me. It only makes me think that it and your attempts to associate with so called “tough guys”, probably points to the fact you were bullied at school. My best guess is you still haven’t got over it, and you still can’t punch your way out of wet paper bag.

    Hey, but if you want to keep going I can’t stop you. I sure can have a laugh at your expense though.

  3. I found Brandis obnoxious tonight and willing to lie about Howard’s ETS and the initial fixed price. Then he lied about not knowing what Labor was going to do with the carbon tax money. It was a bit silly and he may look sillier if some Libs cross the floor.

    I reckon Windsor and Oakeshott are just the people to get them to do it.

    Early start tomorrow so I’ll say goodnight.

  4. [The major points improvement is with the Greens. That won’t be of any importance in the seats that matter. That is even if this improvement is a reality, which of course election history proves it’s highly unlikely.]

    Guess where the Green votte came from ?

    OTHERS 🙂

    As for your other rant.

    It says more about you than me.

  5. [Note: please don’t try all the tough talk on me. It only makes me think that it and your attempts to associate with so called “tough guys”, probably points to the fact you were bullied at school. My best guess is you still haven’t got over it, and you still can’t punch your way out of wet paper bag.]

    oh boo hoo

    what was your point??

  6. [don’t try all the tough talk on me. It only makes me think that it and your attempts to associate with so called “tough guys”, probably points to the fact you were bullied at school. My best guess is you still haven’t got over it, and you still can’t punch your way out of wet paper bag.]

    Wow

    You have a massive chip on your shoulder.

  7. BH,

    No one will cross the floor. Except maybe MT. But I think even that is a long shot. I do tweet him every day and ask him will he cross the floor on CC. So far, no answer. 😉

  8. Oh dear, Frank will be crowing!
    It’s probably a rogue poll, making Labor’s position look better than it actually is. 😉

  9. [Space Kidette

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    BH,

    No one will cross the floor. Except maybe MT. But I think even that is a long shot. I do tweet him every day and ask him will he cross the floor on CC. So far, no answer
    ]

    More like the loos will be VERY busy when the vote is called. 🙂

  10. [Pollytics Possum Comitatus
    Newspoll continuing on with it’s crazy volatility yet again
    1 hour ago]

    For some reality.

  11. [evan14

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    Oh dear, Frank will be crowing!
    It’s probably a rogue poll, making Labor’s position look better than it actually is.
    ]

    Egg, meet Face 🙂

  12. gusface, yep, like you I don’t like some things that JG has said and done, but I’ve never seen anything like her in the face of what she’s up against. And she keeps delivering, so far.

  13. [evan14

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    Frank……….at this rate, the next WA Newspoll will show Eric Ripper leading Colin Barnett.
    ]

    Eric is the quiet assasin 🙂

  14. [strawman
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

    Boo Hoo.

    As Kevin Reynolds and the CFMEU once said:

    “We’re Coming Back.

    Peak Abbott has passed.

    Actually, you’re not. Not on this poll anyway.

    The major points improvement is with the Greens. That won’t be of any importance in the seats that matter. That is even if this improvement is a reality, which of course election history proves it’s highly unlikely.]

    Not sure what your point is … but, wow, you sure can choose an appropriate name.

  15. @strawman – you seem to align your views with those of the “professional campaigners”, that’s why the rest of us know you’re wrong.

  16. Gus,

    I keep reminding myself that the policy that differentiated voting in the Fibs last leadership spill was CC and that the difference was 1 vote. Which means half of them support CC. Big Question: will they cross the floor. Nah, there is only one job they will accept (other than treasury benches) and that is shadow benches with a dream of being returned to the treasuy benches.

  17. [POLLYTICS | 2 minutes ago

    Interesting bit their from Windsor on floor crossings – some Libs have obviously telling him they really give a shit about a carbon price.]

    Would love to think this could be true. Cat, pidgeon’s and all that.

    I think that if any of the Libs except Turnbull cross the floor on this then Abbott would be goneski pretty fast.

    Still, maybe some of the Libs see Abbott as terminal anyway and want to get him gone long enough before an election so he’s not remembered??

  18. Labor supporters, let’s be frank, Malcolm Turnball did our side of politics a great favour last week – as they say, disunity in politics is death.

  19. [@strawman – you seem to align your views with those of the “professional campaigners”, that’s why the rest of us know you’re wrong.]

    thanks wara

    Tah

    😉

  20. [I keep reminding myself that the policy that differentiated voting in the Fibs last leadership spill was CC and that the difference was 1 vote.]

    Before the last election. All those Qld LNPers who surfed into parliament on an Abbott wave will no doubt feel obligated to him for their seats.

  21. [Jasmine

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:43 pm | Permalink

    Eric is the quiet assasin

    He is certainly quiet. Well this is better than a poke in the eye but …
    ]

    His best work is in the Parlaiment 🙂

  22. Brandis was so cocky on Q&A that I thought Newspoll would be good for the Coalition & he’d got a sneak peak at it.

  23. [Labor supporters, let’s be frank, Malcolm Turnball did our side of politics]

    I can’t imagine why you talk about Labor and ‘our side’ in the same sentence. You are far more of a Lib than a Labor person…. seriously.

  24. [Tom Hawkins

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    Labor supporters, let’s be frank, Malcolm Turnball did our side of politics

    I can’t imagine why you talk about Labor and ‘our side’ in the same sentence. You are far more of a Lib than a Labor person…. seriously.
    ]

    Agreed.

  25. ABC News leads with : Tony Abbott farts -accepted by MSM as policy statement.

    I fail to understand why Abbott’s views about Cate Blanchett are of any news value at all, let alone headline news.

    Murdoch’s minions must be rubbing their hands with delight at having created this week’s anti-government meme, and shutting down all discussion of the fragmenting opposition.

  26. Wrong on all counts, Frank and Tom: Kevin Rudd supporters are Labor voters.
    I guess the two of you will be boycotting Wednesday’s big Press Club Address from the Foreign Minister? 😉

  27. [91

    Jasmine

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

    His best work is in the Parlaiment

    Well outside is a whole State of voters he could perhaps focus on
    ]

    Let’s just say that his message is starting to cut through 🙂

  28. Over the last few weeks News Ltd. has been openly and unashamedly biased as usual , but being caught out in ‘phone tapping’ in UK , and Fairfax and other notables calling them on their disgusting behavior and childish headlines here in OZ is also part of the story in the newspoll result.
    Labor is winning the CC debate and the more people of good will give it the tick (thankyou Cate , Michael) the more people will see the necessity for it.

  29. [93

    Ozymandias

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    ABC News leads with : Tony Abbott farts -accepted by MSM as policy statement.

    I fail to understand why Abbott’s views about Cate Blanchett are of any news value at all, let alone headline news.

    Murdoch’s minions must be rubbing their hands with delight at having created this week’s anti-government meme, and shutting down all discussion of the fragmenting opposition.
    ]

    They had the stopry ready as soon as the raw figures came in on Saturday Night at 10pm

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 2 of 68
1 2 3 68