Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland

The Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents which shows the Coalition with an imposing 59-41 lead on two-party preferred. This points to a 4 per cent swing compared with the state’s result at the election (55.1-44.9), which is entirely in line with the general picture of national polling. On the primary vote the Coalition is almost doubling Labor, with a lead of 53 per cent to 28 per cent. Even more remarkable is the scale of Julia Gillard’s unpopularity in Queensland: she is favoured as Labor leader by just 19 per cent of respondents compared with 59 per cent for Kevin Rudd, compared with 44 per cent and 33 per cent at the previous such poll in February (Wayne Swan has also dropped from 15 per cent to 9 per cent since then). We are variously told “Tony Abbott has pulled in front of Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister by a strong 16 percentage point margin”, and that “Mr Abbott has pulled ahead of Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister by 53 per cent to 47 per cent”. Hopefully the print edition will clear things up.

UPDATE: JWS Research now has full results from its post-budget automated phone poll of the 20 most marginal seats, which collectively showed an 8 per cent swing to the Coalition since the election. It points to an exacerbation of the state-level divide recorded at the election, with Coalition swings of 8.8 per cent swings in the NSW seats covered (Reid, Banks, Lindsay, Robertson, Greenway, Macquarie) and 9.8 per cent in the Queensland seats
(Petrie, Moreton, Brisbane, Forde, Longman), but only 3.6 per cent in the Victorian seats (Deakin, La Trobe, Corangamite, Dunkley, Aston). Much further detailed is offered in the link, from which Spur212 in comments notes Tony Abbott’s astoundingly poor personal ratings among “soft” and anti-Coalition voters: his net approval is minus 35 among all soft voters, minus 74 among supporters of the opposing major party, minus 63 among minor party/independent supporters and minus 42 among the undecided. The respective figures for Julia Gillard are plus 1, minus 64, plus 3 and minus 12.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,963 comments on “Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. There’s need to be a government service that tracks down Mike’s callers and hits them with a tranquiliser dart.. sheesh.. who gave birth to this neanderthal and how did he manage to dial a phone number.

  2. [

    gordongrahamgordongraham

    again, that’s 2nd hand info. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s accurate given this week’s events #auspol

    4 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply

    gordongrahamgordongraham

    … Abbott apparently said that now was not the appropriate time but he’d consider it in the future #auspol

    5 minutes ago

    gordongrahamgordongraham

    2nd hand info from Mumble’s blog: apparently Turnbull approached Abbott for Hockey’s job after the budget … #auspol

    6 minutes ago]

  3. [bemused

    Posted Saturday, May 21, 2011 at 12:48 am | Permalink

    Here we go with that regular moron β€˜Skipper John’…
    ]

    Why do you think I call him Captain Feathersword – he is as harmless as him

  4. Gusface
    Posted Saturday, May 21, 2011 at 12:37 am | Permalink

    bemused

    Sun Tzu is your friend

    πŸ™‚

    no no no jas is your friend sun tzu is a way way way dead guy who wrote a pretty obvious and not all that helpful book

  5. ARGGGHH!

    The OO has this up:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tvs-batts-solar-julia-gillards-dollar-dazzle/story-fn59niix-1226059963230

    Read the headline and you’d think, Hah, yet another expose of this govts dodge dealings, inetptitude and waste, waste, waste.

    But then they say:

    [None of these companies was ever blacklisted by the federal government and there is no suggestion of any wrongdoing.]

    [Three of those companies are now linked to solar businesses through company directors. There are no allegations of wrongdoing against these companies in their latest incarnation.]

    So, actually, nothing much to see here, but they got a headline in that is suggestive and keeps a meme going.

  6. Turnbull’s dummy spit may also be a bonus for the NBN. His heart hasn’t been in it for some time – that is defending the coalitions fraudulent broadband policy. But after this he’s going to get less chance to do that, if he even wants to.

    Roll on the NBN. Its only a matter of time before someone from the coalition tries to go ok its a fact lets deal with that. Meanwhile Abbott will be going fight to the death!

    Its not going to be pretty, especially when word spreads and even the media understand.

  7. Had a read of:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/commentary/gillards-long-game-is-a-big-gamble/story-e6frgd0x-1226059944024

    Funnily, i find myself agreeing with some of Shannahns comment.

    [It is clear that while she is under enormous pressure, Gillard firmly believes she will prevail and have Labor in an election-winning position when it counts in 2013.]

    [There is no doubt that the Liberal leader will not be able to get away with the politically driven and content-free budget-in-reply speech he delivered last week when May 2013 comes, only three months before the election is due. Abbott also will have to develop a more sophisticated economic and climate change policy while holding on to his conservative core vote.]

    [All of Labor’s hopes and the Prime Minister’s strategies are long term and rely to an extent on Abbott’s successful, short-term tactics petering out by mid-2013.]

    All pretty obvious, but pretty clearly and fairly evenhandedly stated.

  8. Some of the responses here to bizarre to be believed.

    It is a Galaxy poll Qld of federal voting intentions. It is very relevant to federal Labor and shows they are well and truly rooted in Qld.

    she is favoured as Labor leader by just 19 per cent of respondents compared with 59 per cent for Kevin Rudd, compared with 44 per cent and 33 per cent at the previous such poll in February

    Gillard would have originally suffered from the nature of her knifing Rudd in the back, but that is some time ago now though the lingering legitimacy problem will linger in voter’s minds. The 59% in favour of Rudd doesn’t mean they want him as PM but simply shows how low Gillard is in their estimation.

    The fact the she has fallen markedly against Rudd since February and is only at 19% is astonishing for a new PM or any PM and should be ringing very loud alarm bells among her cabal.

    The profound message to be taken from this poll is not the TPP but the evidence that Gillard personal rating has reached the fatal level. It is at an irreparable level. This level of support means the voter is not listening, will not listen, don’t care and find you mildly annoying and prefer to not see you.

    This means that Gillard has no means to improve her standing or that of the party in QLD. She is approaching that toxic level.

    The question then is how much of this type of thing is going on in other states. Is Gillard poisoning the well elsewhere?

  9. [Queenslanders sure do appreciate the govt’s support to rebuilding flood affected areas!!]

    I want my Flood Levy back!!!!!!!!!

  10. TP: Can you please explain how Gillard “stabbed Rudd in the back” when they met face to face for hours on the night in question?

    Clearly they discussed the problems from the perspective of the caucus. Rudd would have put his case; Gillard would have put her case. Anyone else who was there would have put in their 2 cents’ worth as well.

    There was no “ambush”; no “knifing”; no “assassination”. They discussed it like grown ups and then Rudd himself chose to pull out of a leadership ballot, meaning he understood he didn’t have the numbers.

    Say what you like about why it happened and what the electoral consequences may or may not have been, but don’t try to beat up *what* happened into something it wasn’t.

  11. hahaha!

    I meant Frank, of course. This is what happens when you type whilst having a secondary conversation πŸ™‚

  12. BK,

    There are a number of factors here. There are a lot of QLDr’s who are still living in limbo post the floods. They’re really starting to get p*ssed. Although this is largely as a result of the insurance companies failure to pay or pay in a timely manner, it is always the”goverment’s fault.”

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