Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland

The Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents which shows the Coalition with an imposing 59-41 lead on two-party preferred. This points to a 4 per cent swing compared with the state’s result at the election (55.1-44.9), which is entirely in line with the general picture of national polling. On the primary vote the Coalition is almost doubling Labor, with a lead of 53 per cent to 28 per cent. Even more remarkable is the scale of Julia Gillard’s unpopularity in Queensland: she is favoured as Labor leader by just 19 per cent of respondents compared with 59 per cent for Kevin Rudd, compared with 44 per cent and 33 per cent at the previous such poll in February (Wayne Swan has also dropped from 15 per cent to 9 per cent since then). We are variously told “Tony Abbott has pulled in front of Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister by a strong 16 percentage point margin”, and that “Mr Abbott has pulled ahead of Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister by 53 per cent to 47 per cent”. Hopefully the print edition will clear things up.

UPDATE: JWS Research now has full results from its post-budget automated phone poll of the 20 most marginal seats, which collectively showed an 8 per cent swing to the Coalition since the election. It points to an exacerbation of the state-level divide recorded at the election, with Coalition swings of 8.8 per cent swings in the NSW seats covered (Reid, Banks, Lindsay, Robertson, Greenway, Macquarie) and 9.8 per cent in the Queensland seats
(Petrie, Moreton, Brisbane, Forde, Longman), but only 3.6 per cent in the Victorian seats (Deakin, La Trobe, Corangamite, Dunkley, Aston). Much further detailed is offered in the link, from which Spur212 in comments notes Tony Abbott’s astoundingly poor personal ratings among “soft” and anti-Coalition voters: his net approval is minus 35 among all soft voters, minus 74 among supporters of the opposing major party, minus 63 among minor party/independent supporters and minus 42 among the undecided. The respective figures for Julia Gillard are plus 1, minus 64, plus 3 and minus 12.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,963 comments on “Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  7. [ she is favoured as Labor leader by just 19 per cent of respondents compared with 59 per cent for Kevin Rudd, compared with 44 per cent and 33 per cent at the previous such poll in February ]

    Ummm

    when a pollster conflates state leaders with fed maybes

    alarm bells ring

  10. Anyone who takes any notice of a Galaxy poll at this stage of the electoral cycle has rocks in their head. The only galaxy poll I will be interested in is the last one before polling day. They always get that one right – surprise, surprise.

  12. [Posted Saturday, May 21, 2011 at 12:02 am | Permalink
    Anyone who takes any notice of a Galaxy poll at this stage of the electoral cycle has rocks in their head]

    apologise immediately!!!

    bilbo only has pebbles

  13. Dear God, there are some halfwits on this site. The poll shows a 4 per cent swing to the Coalition, just like every other poll conducted since the carbon tax came out. There is nothing remotely surprising about it.

  25. And there goes another plank for Tony to whinge about:

    [At the villas and crumbling hostels where they reside, the Herald got the same response: everyone knew of the policy change and said they would not be engaging the services of a people smuggler any time soon.

    ”Yes, back to Malaysia, back to PNG,” said Muhammad Bagir, an 18-year-old asylum seeker. ”Every time I think of it, I am crying. We just stay here now waiting for the UNHCR. Many years … very difficult life”.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/boat-people-abandon-travel-plans-after-malaysian-deal-20110520-1ewss.html#ixzz1MtzLI7Ih%5D

  26. [The poll shows a 4 per cent swing to the Coalition, just like every other poll conducted since the carbon tax came out. ]

    Yup. Will be interesting to see if people still object once all the detail about distribution and compensation is released.

    It makes sense from a process point of view to me for them to have released the info as they have. First a framework (broad brush) followed up by detail hung off that framework.

    In terms of massaging the politics of it through the electorate in such a toxic partisan media environment, it may be looked back on as a mistake, but i think they were damned if they did, damed if they didn’t.

    The state of the polling a few weeks after the details of the Carbon Price are out there may tell us a lot about how readily people change their minds based on evidence??

  28. The GetUp campaign referred to at #2
    [GetUp has been overrun with communists. It’s time to take charge, end the welfare state, adopt free markets and defend free speech.]
    A GetUp campaign to change GetUp.

    Watch that race up the charts.

  29. Obviously, Gus does not have the clarity of mind that comes after a couple of hours of therapeutic shouting at criminal umpires.

  31. [GetUp has been overrun with communists. It’s time to take charge, end the welfare state, adopt free markets and defend free speech.]

    Bloody peasants!

  34. Poor old William wishes I was around more often to disperse the lefty circle jerk. Unfortunately I have better things to do 😀

  35. [34

    Generic Person

    Posted Saturday, May 21, 2011 at 12:26 am | Permalink

    Poor old William wishes I was around more often to disperse the lefty circle jerk. Unfortunately I have better things to do
    ]

    By keeping the NSW Ambulance Service in business 🙂

  43. [The state of the polling a few weeks after the details of the Carbon Price are out there may tell us a lot about how readily people change their minds based on evidence??]

    The state of the polling after the CT has actually begun and the compensation has started started flowing – and Abbott has to explain to the recipients he is going to take it all away – will be the most interesting time.

    I am expecting a sharp swing back to the government at that time. Whether it will be enough remains to be seen.

  49. [Obviously, Gus does not have the clarity of mind that comes after a couple of hours of therapeutic shouting at criminal umpires.]

    GG

    They were bloody terrible – the worst I have seen for a while. But i don’t think they favoured either side.

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