The Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents which shows the Coalition with an imposing 59-41 lead on two-party preferred. This points to a 4 per cent swing compared with the state’s result at the election (55.1-44.9), which is entirely in line with the general picture of national polling. On the primary vote the Coalition is almost doubling Labor, with a lead of 53 per cent to 28 per cent. Even more remarkable is the scale of Julia Gillard’s unpopularity in Queensland: she is favoured as Labor leader by just 19 per cent of respondents compared with 59 per cent for Kevin Rudd, compared with 44 per cent and 33 per cent at the previous such poll in February (Wayne Swan has also dropped from 15 per cent to 9 per cent since then). We are variously told “Tony Abbott has pulled in front of Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister by a strong 16 percentage point margin”, and that “Mr Abbott has pulled ahead of Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister by 53 per cent to 47 per cent”. Hopefully the print edition will clear things up.
UPDATE: JWS Research now has full results from its post-budget automated phone poll of the 20 most marginal seats, which collectively showed an 8 per cent swing to the Coalition since the election. It points to an exacerbation of the state-level divide recorded at the election, with Coalition swings of 8.8 per cent swings in the NSW seats covered (Reid, Banks, Lindsay, Robertson, Greenway, Macquarie) and 9.8 per cent in the Queensland seats
(Petrie, Moreton, Brisbane, Forde, Longman), but only 3.6 per cent in the Victorian seats (Deakin, La Trobe, Corangamite, Dunkley, Aston). Much further detailed is offered in the link, from which Spur212 in comments notes Tony Abbott’s astoundingly poor personal ratings among “soft” and anti-Coalition voters: his net approval is minus 35 among all soft voters, minus 74 among supporters of the opposing major party, minus 63 among minor party/independent supporters and minus 42 among the undecided. The respective figures for Julia Gillard are plus 1, minus 64, plus 3 and minus 12.
Yes Kidette. All very convenient.
Faulkner still remains one of Labor’s best thinkers:
[Faulkner said that many people were questioning the party’s survival. But, “it’s too simplistic and easy to put a lot of the blame at the door of Kevin Rudd or Julia Gillard or whomever the leader happens to be”.
“The challenges that the ALP faces are not going to be solved in their entirety at all by changing the leader. I want to see the party grow and prosper … the challenge for the ALP is to re-establish itself as a party of values, ideas and reform. We need to make a culture of inclusion and innovation in the ALP not so much of exclusion and factionalism.”
The party was now facing, for the first time since the Commonwealth was created, “a serious political threat on the left of the party from the Greens”, he said. “The ALP is being squeezed in both ways now.”]
The government has made a start in that direction, even if currently it is suffering for it in the polls via carbon pricing and the boat people. As more achievements are on the board it will eventually turn, simply because the negativism is mindless.
Brown was only half right in labelling Murdoch media hateful. Sure, the Hun and the Telly give almost daily examples to back the OO. But the bile on talk radio seems to be a more continuous drone. The good news is that the audience must be diminishing over time.
Liked the idea of a union-Labor push to buy Fairfax radio and run a different meme, but the purchase price may be too high.
I realy do believe that if the PM and labor stick to their guns the polls will turn.
Good policy will win out of shrill and scare every time.
However, we must get used to these poll results. It will be like this for a while. There will be no magic overnight turnaround. But it will happen.
This poll is no surprise.
[TONY Abbott looks like the giant-killer of Australian politics but according to new research, it was his unpopularity that cost the Liberals and Nationals the last election.
The Australian Election Study, based on a detailed survey conducted immediately after the election in August, found that voters’ dislike of the Opposition Leader added more than 1 per cent to Labor’s vote.]
you dont need the weather girl to tell you which way the wind is blowing.
[I want my Flood Levy back!!!!!!!!!]
Diog, i knew you would do that, you stingy bastard 😛
[ SpaceKidette Space Kidette
Dislike of Abbott cost Libs election: http://bit.ly/mCbv7j
]
Fatty O’Barrell gets a lifeline on the solar panels
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/energy-smart/ofarrell-handed-60c-solar-solution-20110520-1ewsj.html
Here is a Colbert Report very funny piss take of a press release from Newt Gingrich’s mouthpiece.
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/scarce/john-lithgow-performs-gingrich-press-releas
Good morning, Bludgers!
Great minds, Finns!
Finns, I just flicked over from that article to say:
And that was before the appalling mishandling of the Indies – all too apparent on ABC footage of the negotiations and Indies’ decision! Tony Abbott, single handedly, snatched Coalition defeat from the jaws of victory! 😀
So, with 1 July looming, the week’s end result is that the OO thinks Abbott is toast – and very burnt toast at that!
Great minds, Finns! 😉
i am cross why do we have to put up with posting under this poll
comeon william bet you wouldnt do with a tasmanian one,
WHY this one just on one state
Shanahan and Kelly in today’s OO are suggesting the opposition leader cut back on the negativity, and start to broaden his focus to offer some more positives.
Very interesting.
[The Australian Election Study, based on a detailed survey conducted immediately after the election in August, found that voters’ dislike of the Opposition Leader added more than 1 per cent to Labor’s vote.]
Finns:
Do you have a link for this article pls?
[Liked the idea of a union-Labor push to buy Fairfax radio and run a different meme, but the purchase price may be too high.]
didnt they own one some years ago what a shame i bet they wish they had never sold it.
why not have one on the net
[Shanahan and Kelly in today’s OO are suggesting the opposition leader cut back on the negativity, and start to broaden his focus to offer some more positives.]
somethings going on or they have been listening to Bob
[Gusface
Posted Friday, May 20, 2011 at 11:59 pm | Permalink
WILLIAM
galaxy is having a lend
the noise in this poll renders it somewhat meaningless]
yes i refuse to post under this poll, we should only stick to aust. wide polls.
Chris Kenny (SkyNews Agenda) has just gone all frothy at the mouth with disasters, debacles, shonks, etc re STBs, school halls and pink batts.
A nasty piece of work.
Here is the link to the article about the AES.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/dislike-of-abbott-cost-libs-election/story-fn59niix-1226059924848
Exactly where have these polls been taken?
Yes, Qld, but in what seats?
Polls influence voters. They give the headline for the rags to bash the government further to reinforce Labor all bad.
[Exactly where have these polls been taken?
Yes, Qld, but in what seats?
Polls influence voters. They give the headline for the rags to bash the government further to reinforce Labor all bad.]
exactly, we should be allowed to have the decent polls sit on top like the morgan poll and also that Essential ONE THAT DID NOT GET A GURNSEY
see you all next week
Wrote a post in response to Dio on Rudd yesterday but did not post it because I did not want to start the Rudd/Gillard flame wars again. However since the fire is well and truly lit once again this was my response to Dio
Diogenes
Cannot speak for SA but in Qld, Rudd is still a BIG vote winner. Put on a function and attendences are high – I suspect if there were competing functions between JG. TA, MT and KR, attendence would be in reverse order although JG might top TA.
Not sure if you are aware but back in December he was a HUGE hit at the Woodford Folk Festival which is a MEGA, MEGA, Mega event . Still seems to pull a crowd.
Rudd may be many things but I cannot see any evidence of him being a vote loser. Cannot speak for SA of course, nor Victoria, but from a few reports he seems to have star staus in much of NSW too.
Todays’s galaxy simply confirms this.
Also time for Mexicans and cockroaches to get over their anti Qld bias. The state has come a very, very, very, long way since the Joh days and in terms of governance it is probably now a leader rather than a laughable last. (Hey even the coffee is better than in NSW and they take eftpos everywhere).
Oddly enough even in the Joh days Qld had a very well managed and strong governing structure in the Brisbane City Council (a labor run council mostly). In just in case you do not know – the size and range of functions of the council were larger than those of Tasmania and included the Bus Service, water and sewage, national/state parks, environmental regulation of many small businesses, fire services as well as more traditional council functions. Some functions have now been corporatised or taken over by the state which I suspect is hurting labor as prices have gone up.
Regional areas however were probably not so well managed.
Posters from the South need to understand that Qld has two very different parts. SEQ is hightly urbanised and white “urbane” with views and aspirations closer to Melbourne with a touch of spivvery around the Gold Coast. The Arts are strong, with classical music very high profile as do as the visual arts.
Qld regions are different with Bob Katter and Barnyard characters being popular. These areas are entrenched National party but there are pockets of strongly traditional labor areas in the regional cities. However in the regions both LNP and labor people see themselves as old fashioned Aussies and have WWII values. Spin of any kind goes down badly.
So is Qld polling representative of Australia – Yes. SEQ is very much mainstream, while the regions refelect the wider regional view across the Country. There is a 5% LNP bias but the swings etc as pointed out by William are consistent nationwide.
Danny Lewis @ 96
I just love your optimistic view of how the ALP factions do their business. Oh that you were right!
my say
[see you all next week]
What a good idea! See ya next week my say! 🙂
“White urbane” should be “quite urbane” – but white sort of works too
daretotread
[Rudd may be many things but I cannot see any evidence of him being a vote loser.]
I am with you!
108 BK
Posted Saturday, May 21, 2011 at 8:23 am | Permalink
[Here is a Colbert Report very funny piss take of a press release from Newt Gingrich’s mouthpiece.
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/scarce/john-lithgow-performs-gingrich-press-releas%5D
Thanks for a great laugh to start the day.
The OO has an article detailing all the funding and projects Tony Windsor has been able to secure for his electorate since the election – although it’s worth remembering that the Rudd govt also funded lots of projects in the seats of the 3 indies, according to that decision-making documentary.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/loyal-lieutenant-tony-windsor-royally-rewarded/story-fn59niix-1226059968485
Why would anyone vote National when you can vote independent and actually get things done in your electorate? Nationals like to carry on about delivering for the regions, but when in govt they simply roll over to the coalition partner.
daretotread
Rudd became a resurrected hometown boy only after he lost the ALP leadership.
Before that, Qlders wanted to take to him with baseball bats.
Since his demise, the Coalition & the media have painted Rudd as a ‘Victim’.
Rudd was a victim of his own hands.
went to galaxy web sight, how many people in the poll, ect, doesn’t say have i missed somethings.
also galaxy dont have email address they say contact you click on and get a street map
yes you can ring, but a business without an email address,? have i missed something was it there and i missed it.
[There are a number of factors here. There are a lot of QLDr’s who are still living in limbo post the floods. They’re really starting to get p*ssed. Although this is largely as a result of the insurance companies failure to pay or pay in a timely manner, it is always the”goverment’s fault.”]
It’s also a result of the length of time it takes to get natural disaster damage repaired. Note that rebuilding is still occurring in the Black Saturday bushfire areas!
There’s a limited number of decent tradies people want to repair the damage; building materials companies can’t magically conjure up materials within the span of disaster-affected people’s impatience, and, with the extent of Q’s Summer of sorrow it will take years literally, to finish. Meanwhile, homes are still being built throughout Oz, and people buying them want to get into their new homes asap. In addition, they’re paying rent; when fully insured disaster victims’ rent’s paid by their insurers!
This is the 2nd natural disaster in which my house has been damaged – same area, same day, 10 January, 35 years minus 2 hrs apart (the first one also involved the car). 1st, a quite limited one, took c14 weeks to get roof ridge capping to turn off the waterfall down one wall & 9 months for car repair.
This year, I phoned my insurer when I heard water gurgling down inside the wall; before the full horror of the disaster was apparent. It took until we finally had bright sunshine ( around Easter) to see the damage’s full extent – blo#dy e’light bulbs are F useless when looking for water damage on high ceilings. But, smell & mess as we had remove stuff to a dry room (and, Bower Birds all of us, do we DO “stuff”!) apart, we’re OK.
The builder said August-Sept. I’m not by any means on my lonesome when I said, “I can live with it. Get people back in their homes first.” He said, “Thanks. That’s what most people are saying.”
Most; but not all. And we know who’s doing the whinging.
[Dee
Posted Saturday, May 21, 2011 at 9:10 am | Permalink
daretotread
Rudd became a resurrected hometown boy only after he lost the ALP leadership.
Before that, Qlders wanted to take to him with baseball bats.
Since his demise, the Coalition & the media have painted Rudd as a ‘Victim’.
Rudd was a victim of his own hands.
]
Hear Hear.
Quincelanders aere pissed off that they weren’t allowed to get rid of him – they were denied the opportunity.
Hence their newfound “Support”.
MTBW: I wasn’t referring to what had happened in the time leading up to that night. I was referring specifically to what happened between Rudd and Gillard.
My snouts tells me that it was all very civilised in the end. Not a happy event from anyone’s perspective – including Gillard’s – but civilised. Yes, Rudd is bitter about it and probably will be for years to come, but he is also a realist.
Note that he did not spit the dummy; he chose to fight on and to continue to do his bit for the Labor cause. Many people – including many on here – underestimate the sort of Labor loyalist he is. Despite accusations of not being a team player he is a Labor man through and through.
He has been a member of the party since he was old enough to join. He’s not going anywhere while he is still able to make a contribution.
[ABC News
On Insiders this Sunday (9am ABC1), Barrie Cassidy interviews shadow immigration minister Scott Morrison.On the panel: the Advertiser’s Mark Kenny, SBS’s Karen Middleton and political commentator Niki Savva.And Mike Bowers talks pictures with freelance cartoonist, Jason Chatfield.]
Agree with Thomas Paine on this one, the above poll is a shocker for Labor in that it reflects the national trend and also coincides with the state figures for QLD labor.
Labor is on the nose in Queensland and we have to accept that , the flood levy may help when it becomes part of the political landscape especially when it produces some results.
2 years is a good timeframe for that to happen so some recovery there is possible.
Regarding Rudd-Gillard , while I like Rudd a lot I have immense respect for PM Gillard , and if asked who I would vote for I would say Rudd if I had to choose , but that does not diminish my respect for the job PM Gillard is doing.
Its a surreal situation.
Its also interesting that when speaking to Lib supporters when they gloat about Libs leading polls I always remark that “Its OK ,PM Abbott will fix everything”..the resulting silence is deafening .
All this tells me that the political landscape is in a state of flux right now and the battle is really on…I hope while we may be losing some battles (media bias) we will ultimately win the war.
Barnett is doing an O’Farrell of sorts:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/9488548/feed-in-tariff-for-solar-power-slashed/
Danny
Yes, Rudd is a loyal ALP member but that doesn’t make a good boss.
Everyone should put themselves in the shoes of his ministers.
If your boss was intolerable to work for & there was a possibility you would have him for another term but the opportunity came to remove him what would you do?
The ALP is bigger than one person & represents more than one mans point of view.
Howard had a similar problem.
He couldn’t understand why people hated him, either, at the end. But at least Labor was a relatively positive opposition and had some vision for the future.
Unfortunately, the Misery Virus has spread to Queensland. Abbott has a lot to answer for.
Now Shanahan plaintively calls for actual… cough, cough… policies. Why didn’t anyone think of this before? As the Mythbusters might say, “Now, there’s your problem!”
One gets the feeling that Abbott’s ego is having too much fun being lazy and aggressive. Certainly Joe Hockey’s insulting, arrogant performance the other day shows they think they can coast it in on slogans and flim-flam. Turnbull appears to be worried too.
Perhaps they can. If a marginal seat holder for Labor resigns or dies in the saddle soon it might work. I’m not sure of the numbers. Can Labor survive losing one seat? Technically? One would think it’s too late now for a by-election anyway, before July.
Just think of the Nirvana of Abbottism: no more jobs programs like the BER and Pink Batts. Thousands can rest easy, while they wait in the Centrelink queues.
No more NBN. It’ll be cancelled as soon as possible. We only deserve a Commodore, after all.
Mums on $150k will be delirious with joy. They’ll get their full salary for having bubsy, and then be paid full freight to look after him.
We’ll all get the opportunity to say, “Bah-foo, sucks to you!” to those cheese and bratwurst-eating Europeans who tax our airlines and other business because we don’t have a carbon abatement program. As for the Poms and their Carbon Targets? They don’t tell us what to do anymore. They can go jump as well.
Every country does one thing really well. Digging holes is our speciality. You don’t need too many brains to do it, and those Chinkies will just have to keep buying the stuff. Funny little yellow men. We can lord it over them anytime we want.
How are we going to pay for it all? Easy! We’ll just sack 20,000 public servants. They know they’re bludgers. They’ll take it like grown ups.
And the boats. We’ll stop the boats and save Nauru. What could be more satisfying than that? Even if we don’t stop the boats, we’ll swear we have.
As the Misery Virus spreads to the hive brain, strange things begin to occur. Punters start to believe that Newspoll can change the laws of science on any number of issues: Climate, physics, information theory. All we have to do is vote them away and they’re gone.
It’ll be a hard ask, pulling Australia back from low unemployment, low inflation, and the best fiscal position of any western nation by far. But Tony can do it. He’ll just make up a slogan that the voters can repeat over and over again to themselves. His mate Rupe will see that it’s spread far and wide. And if that doesn’t work he can just blame Julia.
And the ABC can be expected to be thoroughly reformed. No more, “The Opposition says…”. Ray Hadley rules anyway, doesn’t he? What do we need the ABC for when it’s Ray who gets the real results?
We are all The Power Station now.
[How are we going to pay for it all? Easy! We’ll just sack 20,000 public servants. They know they’re bludgers. They’ll take it like grown ups.]
Cannot remember who it was, think it was in the Canberra Times, that the public servants the Coalition are crowing about are defence force recruitments.
128 Dee
Posted Saturday, May 21, 2011 at 9:10 am | Permalink
[daretotread
Rudd became a resurrected hometown boy only after he lost the ALP leadership.
Before that, Qlders wanted to take to him with baseball bats.
Since his demise, the Coalition & the media have painted Rudd as a ‘Victim’.
Rudd was a victim of his own hands.]
I agree with your assessment Dee.
But, the troppodity of Qlders aside, what do you make of this:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/05/11/uk-australia-lng-emissions-idUKLNE74A00T20110511
I find it passing strange that while LNG is considered the be-all-and-end-all clean energy source (a) its extraction has such a huge carbon footprint (for want of a better word) and (b) there is no mention of this by Bob Brown, let alone Labor.
Maybe Bob would have said this given half a chance by Uhlman.
What do you think?
Dee
I think you still believe the polling myth put about last year. Possum clearly showed that the whole polling thing was already turning back to Labor and Rudd and was probably temporary.
First as i said there is a 5% LNP bias in Qld. Many of the seats Rudd won in 2007 were previously National party heartland. Because they were natural national voters they were always more volatile and likely to swing to LNP when things got tough. Recall that the GFC hit Qld hard – still does in SEQ.
Despite the rhetoric put out by Howes, the SDA and AWU, there was no sign of any hostility to Rudd at the election. Indeed as many a person has said if they could get a $1 for every voter who said on polling day
“we prefer Rudd AND Turnbull” they would be rich.
Very cheekily perhaps I could argue that Queenslanders actually have a preference for “Brainy” leaders whereas southerners, like their US conterparts like “folksy average” types aka GWB
As could have been predicted by any rational person who completed (and passed) Politics AO1, the toppling of Rudd without warning was certain to make Qlders (and many other aussies) realise how much they missed him. All those involved are tainted, probably permanently.
Dee @ 128
[Since his demise, the Coalition & the media have painted Rudd as a ‘Victim’.
Rudd was a victim of his own hands.]
Really!
[As for the Poms and their Carbon Targets? They don’t tell us what to do anymore. They can go jump as well.]
Or as Tony Abbott replied to the ABC interviewer when asked about this the other day:
[TONY ABBOTT:
Well, the rest of the world is not going down that path. You see, the whole world is different after Copenhagen. At Copenhagen it became absolutely crystal clear that India, China, America are not going down the path of emissions trading schemes, are not going down the path of a carbon tax. Now, I haven’t seen the British Government announcement but since when has the ABC said that we should be following Britain slavishly? I thought you guys were against the cultural cringe… ]
So we shouldn’t be taking any notice of Britain because that would be cultural cringe.
rapture day
feeling a bit lighter, could be log i snapped off though, plan a game of golf just in case i get taken up. has tone been asked his plans, who’ll lead if he gets taken, how will he feel if marge or malcolm! gets taken and he doesn’t.
no real surprise tone lost them the election, he’ll lose them the next one too, polls appear to be saying we want to vote for you but not whilst tone is leader.
morning bludgers
so the meme is building that Turnbull is going rogue because he wants Hockeys job. Really? Very strange way to go about it. Telling everyone who is prepared to listen that the opposition climate policy is no good, and the difference with the coalition and the Cameron govt overseas is that the Cameron have vision. Really, I have heard everything now!
Danny
[Note that he did not spit the dummy; he chose to fight on and to continue to do his bit for the Labor cause. Many people – including many on here – underestimate the sort of Labor loyalist he is. Despite accusations of not being a team player he is a Labor man through and through.
He has been a member of the party since he was old enough to join. He’s not going anywhere while he is still able to make a contribution.]
That I agree with! There are many in the ALP supporters “team” also who simply do not change their loyalty because a faction thinks it is a good idea.
140 daretotread
Posted Saturday, May 21, 2011 at 9:32 am | Permalink
[Dee
I think you still believe the polling myth put about last year. Possum clearly showed that the whole polling thing was already turning back to Labor and Rudd and was probably temporary.]
Rudd suffered a 9% drop in primary vote at the 2010 election
arunta
[Regarding Rudd-Gillard , while I like Rudd a lot I have immense respect for PM Gillard , and if asked who I would vote for I would say Rudd if I had to choose , but that does not diminish my respect for the job PM Gillard is doing.]
You sum up the view of many ALP supporters in that sentence.
daretotread
[I think you still believe the polling myth put about last year. Possum clearly showed that the whole polling thing was already turning back to Labor and Rudd and was probably temporary.]
The anger towards Rudd here in Qld was palpable until he was ousted & became the victim.
We had people in Labor seats getting very worried because their own polling had shown their constituents were very angry with Rudd.
That aside he is an arskhole to work for 😡 but I like & respect him.
Rudd has the popular touch out in the electorate, but is not a good leader of people.
Gillard is a good leader of people but doesn’t have the popular touch out in the electorate.
It’s a pity we can’t find a way to bottle Rudd’s best qualities and Gillard’s best qualities and make a clone from the mix and put that in as Labor’s leader 😉
Kevin Rudd is a very classy guy.