Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland

The Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents which shows the Coalition with an imposing 59-41 lead on two-party preferred. This points to a 4 per cent swing compared with the state’s result at the election (55.1-44.9), which is entirely in line with the general picture of national polling. On the primary vote the Coalition is almost doubling Labor, with a lead of 53 per cent to 28 per cent. Even more remarkable is the scale of Julia Gillard’s unpopularity in Queensland: she is favoured as Labor leader by just 19 per cent of respondents compared with 59 per cent for Kevin Rudd, compared with 44 per cent and 33 per cent at the previous such poll in February (Wayne Swan has also dropped from 15 per cent to 9 per cent since then). We are variously told “Tony Abbott has pulled in front of Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister by a strong 16 percentage point margin”, and that “Mr Abbott has pulled ahead of Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister by 53 per cent to 47 per cent”. Hopefully the print edition will clear things up.

UPDATE: JWS Research now has full results from its post-budget automated phone poll of the 20 most marginal seats, which collectively showed an 8 per cent swing to the Coalition since the election. It points to an exacerbation of the state-level divide recorded at the election, with Coalition swings of 8.8 per cent swings in the NSW seats covered (Reid, Banks, Lindsay, Robertson, Greenway, Macquarie) and 9.8 per cent in the Queensland seats
(Petrie, Moreton, Brisbane, Forde, Longman), but only 3.6 per cent in the Victorian seats (Deakin, La Trobe, Corangamite, Dunkley, Aston). Much further detailed is offered in the link, from which Spur212 in comments notes Tony Abbott’s astoundingly poor personal ratings among “soft” and anti-Coalition voters: his net approval is minus 35 among all soft voters, minus 74 among supporters of the opposing major party, minus 63 among minor party/independent supporters and minus 42 among the undecided. The respective figures for Julia Gillard are plus 1, minus 64, plus 3 and minus 12.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,963 thoughts on “Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  3. Simon Benson in the Tele

    That is not to say that there won’t be a time to hold Abbott to account. But to be doing so only nine months into a term only reaffirms Abbott’s claims to legitimacy.

    As one of the Labor backbench lamented: “Every time we attack him, we just give him more oxygen.”

    That is not to say that things won’t change for the government. It’s possible.

    If the carbon tax gets through and people realise that the world didn’t end, and they have more money thanks to generous compensation, then other issues may also come off the boil.

    Suddenly, with a year to an election, Gillard may have some clear air for the first time while Abbott tries to explain how he is going to unwind a carbon tax that he knows will be next to impossible to unwind.

    But for any of this to happen Labor first needs to start winning the policy arguments, if they have any chance of getting people to listen again.

    And they can’t do that by constantly making Abbott the issue when it is he who is in the position of poll-strength.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/abbotts-spectre-dogs-labors-plod/story-e6frezz0-1226059871754

  4. mIsfit

    Rudd suffered a 9% drop in primary vote at the 2010 election

    What was the National drop in the ALP vote?

  5. went to galaxy web sight, how many people in the poll, ect, doesn’t say have i missed somethings.

    my say, what you missed is
    (1) galaxy is commissioned by the Murdoch Courier Mail

    (2) around the time the last Q Council elections were held & Anna became Premier, I commented on the Cam-lover virulently antiLabor girl band (esp on Channel 10) which includes ABC’s Madonna King (whose OH edits said CM)

    (3) the CM (at least till the floods) so loathed Bligh that even teensy gov glitches got front page screamer headlines the same day as major international “firsts” by and recognition of medical teams in eg Royal Brisbane Hospital were, if there at all, were buried in the most inconspicuous places – I posted some of these at the time.

    (4) Cam newman, on state-wide meet and greet. Was in Tmba yesterday; here’s Chronicle story ‘Can Do’ to put city back on map (get bucket first)

    THE Campbell Newman juggernaut rolled into Toowoomba yesterday morning with the LNP leader vowing to once again make Queensland great.

    Mr Newman, in Toowoomba on the final stop of a three-day Darling Downs tour, pledged to return the region to its glory days.

    “Toowoomba has been forgotten for far too long,” he said.

    “I am very conscious of the issues that this proud city faces and I will pledge to the community my absolute intention to get the city and the region back to where they should be.”

    Typical Cando, since the Clem7 tunnel flop!

    Apart from huge water bills caused by locals’ rejection of Howard-ordered referendum (NO campaign run by Nats inc ex-Joh minister Berghofer & Cr Lyle Shelton – tried to roll ALP in T North) which would have ensured almost total Fed-State funding for recycled water, and the Range Road Howard promised election after election & never delivered – both Conservative not Labor failings – I’ve no idea what he’s talking about.

  6. Danny Lewis
    Posted Saturday, May 21, 2011 at 7:51 am | Permalink
    TP: Can you please explain how Gillard “stabbed Rudd in the back” when they met face to face for hours on the night in question?

    This is a classic example of the ALP woes, plus all the other similar comments here!

    There is nothing wrong with this poll, it is entirely consistent with every other poll.

    Gillard is on the nose, and for good reason. She has been hopelessly at sea, flip flopping around and chasing Abbott’s agenda.

    What do you mean she didn’t stab Rudd in the back? She laughed off any suggestion she was going to challenge him and then, yes, met him and told him she was going to challenge and he would be humiliated with the result (true) and he backed off and resigned.

    Please tell me you dont seriously think the two of them met and Rudd said “Hey, Julia…I have a brilliant idea, why dont you take over from me and we can see whether that improves out polling numbers”…”Gee wizz Kev, hadn’t thought of that…should we give it a try mate?”

    😉

  8. Danny Lewis
    Posted Saturday, May 21, 2011 at 9:43 am | Permalink
    Rudd has the popular touch out in the electorate, but is not a good leader of people.

    Gillard is a good leader of people but doesn’t have the popular touch out in the electorate.

    …this on the other hand, I completely agree with!

  9. The message needs to be sent through social media every day through twitter or whatever that

    “Murdoch’s News Ltd want to stop the NBN because it will destroy their pay tv business model”

    This needs to be repeated ad nauseam.

    you will never hear this argument in the papers or msm of course.

    I stilll recall the interview on ABC last year during last election. There was a visiting professor I believe from Canada. He said that the NBN was a brilliant visionary piece of infrastructure for this country, and he can see why the media want it stopped. He said it would ruin their viability. The interviewer may have been Trioli, but I am not sure. Anyhow, she laughed quite sheeplishly in response. I did not hear this gentleman get a run anywhere else. The video was posted on this blog back then, but I forgot to bookmark it. shame.

  10. Mark Kenny

    There are some big “ifs” here, admittedly, but it is possible Mr Turnbull has considered a similar set of circumstances, however unlikely.

    Precisely why he chose this moment for candour has sparked much discussion in political circles. Even colleagues sympathetic to him say he did his chances of ever leading again no good.

    But then, perhaps like Julia Gillard, he’s playing a long game too.

    Perhaps in that post carbon tax/pre-election period – assuming that it is by then the Opposition struggling to justify an expensive policy nobody truly believes in against one that has been already absorbed with comparatively little pain – that such a period would be just when a desperate party might look to the one person who had been consistent and credible all along.

    http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/turnbull-a-ray-of-light-or-imploding-star/

  11. Victoria,
    This is the perfect time for MT to strike.
    With the Hockey debacle regarding OPP. economic policy and TA coming apart on CC , he can return to his home turf , economics, and leave the negative baggage behind….Tone made me do it regarding CC and NBN.
    By the way , he only wants Hockey’s job because it is his stairway to PM.
    He will be well placed to take over , and he has 2 years to do it…if he can shake TA , Hockey is already discredited in my op. , there is no one else.
    His ego and opportunity intact.

  13. arunta

    Yes agreed if Malcolm is playing the long game, but in the short term his party will be very pissed with him!

  14. 154 Mytwobobsworth
    Posted Saturday, May 21, 2011 at 9:49 am | Permalink

    mIsfit

    Rudd suffered a 9% drop in primary vote at the 2010 election

    What was the National drop in the ALP vote?

    Labor suffered a 5.4% drop in primary vote at the 2010 election
    Translated to a 2.58% drop 2PP

  15. OzPol

    Wonder why Neuman feels the need to do the hard sell in Toowoomba???

    ModLib

    Rudd was warned Xmas prior to his demise to take a break & trust the elected ministers to do their jobs or else……………….
    That’s the last comment I will make on this topic.

  16. madcyril

    From the Atkins link you posted:

    “The party (in NSW) is walking around like the survivors of a huge pile-up on the highway,” one national Labor figure said.

    “They can’t believe the extent of the wreckage and many are still not sure what happened to them.”

    What happened to them was arrogance and ego writ large!

  17. Mod Lib

    Gillard is on the nose, and for good reason. She has been hopelessly at sea, flip flopping around and chasing Abbott’s agenda.

    …this on the other hand, I completely agree with! re Gillard being a good leader

    This is what I love about the Libs, the ability to hold two contradictory notions at the same time.

  21. That is not to say that there won’t be a time to hold Abbott to account. But to be doing so only nine months into a term only reaffirms Abbott’s claims to legitimacy.

    madcyril:

    I agree with Bensen. The best thing the govt can do for now is to continue with its policies, and try as best they can to sell them. Let Malcolm Turnbull take care of Abbott for now.

  22. madcyril, re Simon Benson in the Tele

    What I find interesting is the Sun-Herald’s very different attitude to Gillard; cf Show carbon courage: Prime Minister Julia Gillard

    Perhaps recognition of Vic’s desire to have a Vic PM after Keating-Howard (Gillard’s first since 1991); and that Liberal LOTO wannabes Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull and Joe Hockey are all from NSW . That they are all men may be another factor. Vic’s had more than its fair share of very successful women & snags; possibly why Fed ALP did so well in Vic last year.

    Interesting.

  24. 169 Mytwobobsworth
    Posted Saturday, May 21, 2011 at 10:06 am | Permalink

    Do you know the drop in Queensland?

    Labor PV drop in qld 2010 9.33%

  25. Abbott must be feeling a chill wind blowing about his budgie smugglers right about now.

    The OO has already editorialised about moving Hockey out of Treasury, presumably in favour of Turnbull. Today Shanahan and Kelly are suggesting Abbott ease up on the negativity and start outlining a vision.

    I think there’s a sense Abbott can’t go the distance with the constant negativity.

  28. Anyone else think the media – particularly News Limited – appear to be having a bob each way re Abbott?

    The mindless cheering seems to have stopped and – however subtly – are starting to ask more of him.

    Either the ructions in the Lib camp are stronger than we think or they can see there is now potential for the Government to claw their way back from this polling position once their policies have been put into place.

    If there is one thing that Murdoch’s rags have generally been good at it’s picking the winner – and ensuring that, when the contest has been won, they can argue that this was what they wanted all along, even in the face of months (often years) of articles that indicate the exact opposite. 😉

  31. Misfit

    Nothing sinister in this just wanting to compare the drop in Rudd’s vote as quoted to both the National Labor Vote and the Queensland vote.

  32. He is getting more and more cocky with the media. How long before he simply refuses to take questions?

    Next thing we know his press conferences will consist of him just turning up and offering everyone the opportunity to kiss his ring 😉

  34. 181 Mytwobobsworth
    Posted Saturday, May 21, 2011 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    Nothing sinister in this just wanting to compare the drop in Rudd’s vote as quoted to both the National Labor Vote and the Queensland vote.

    Sorry, didn’t mean to suggest you were planning anything sinister!
    I think, though, that the figures support Dee’s contention the dumping of Rudd saved him from a far greater drop in PV.

  36. One more comment & then I ‘really’ have to go.
    My right wing brother said a while ago when Rabbott visited his area that his advice was that Rabbott should agree with some of the ALP ideas but state we, the Coalition can do it better. He believes Rabbott has locked the Coalition into a corner on some major issues.
    This is the view that Turnbull is taking.
    Turnbull is all for action on CC. I think he would probably agree with taxing mining too.
    This seems evident in the fact that he is spruiking a sovereign wealth fund for mining taxes similar to Norway who have an RSPT.
    My brother & his right wing group dislike the Rabbott, reckon he is an idiot & state that even if he wins the next election he will not be there for long as his gaffes & stupidity will not be tolerated. They are pegging their hopes on Turnbull.
    He has tried in vain to convince the family that the Coalition ‘Will’ be a good party when Turnbull takes over.
    Lifelong ALP supporters are not for turning. 😀

  39. Misfit

    I think, though, that the figures support Dee’s contention the dumping of Rudd saved him from a far greater drop in PV.

    We will have to agree to disagree on that! Thanks for the info!

  40. My right wing brother said a while ago when Rabbott visited his area that his advice was that Rabbott should agree with some of the ALP ideas but state we, the Coalition can do it better.

    This is what Rudd did in 2007, and what Howard did in 1996. Just say ‘NO!’ is effective in the short term, but unlikely to be effective over the longer term.

  42. I keep hearing about this “toxic level”. Was John Howard ever at this toxic level, and when he was, why was he? Could some of our more conservative bloggers please explain what they mean by this?

    With KR so-say rating so highly in Qld does this mean if Labor swapped tomorrow to KR that suddenly all those disaffected voters would come flooding back? I doubt it.

    The point is that even the rusted on conservatives now recognise, baring accident, the government is likely to go normal term to 2013. They also recognise the longer JG is there and the more runs she puts on the board the harder it will be for them to win.

    Liberal mouth pieces such as Shanahan are already warning the conservatives that negative, negative will not get their boy up. Already the realists on the conservative side know that once certain pieces of legislation get up after July 1, there is little hope of unwinding them, has KB found.

    Okay so the Queensland poll is not flash but we have long recognised our Queensland cousins are a strange bunch – love their home town boy, upset that he went and have always blamed “Cannnberrrra” for everything. Any state that voted for GBP and then thought me might become PM, are capable of puzzling everyone else in the land.

    I just cannot understand all this wishful thinking about Tony Abbott being toppled. If he were a Labor head-kicker we would love it. On the other hand, the Oz electorate may have tuned out for JG but they have also tuned out to all politics.

  43. Danny Lewis

    If there is one thing that Murdoch’s rags have generally been good at it’s picking the winner

    If there is one thing that Murdoch’s rags have generally been good at is installing Murdoch’s choice of PM.

    See Whitlam 1972. Whitlam reneges of media monopoly deal. Whitlam’s out in 1975.
    Fraser refuses media monopoly. Fraser out.
    See Bob Hawke 1983. Hawke doesn’t renege on media monopoly. Long reign for Hawke.
    etc etc
    Howard tried everything to change the rules for media monopoly. Long reign for Howard.
    Rudd caught at strip club after meeting Murdoch (the warning).
    Rudd introduces NBN. Short reign for Rudd
    Julia goes ahead with NBN. Looking like a very short reign for Julia.
    Murdoch’s been the kingmaker in Australia for far too long.

  44. NSW Labor aren’t doing themselves any favours, by placing another 2 useless hacks into the Upper House(Adam Serle & Walt Secord).
    I really despair of Labor these days, at least from a NSW perspective.

  45. I continue to be amused by the free advice being put out there by News Ltd to the government to ignore Abbott and just concentrate on themselves.

    It well may be correct and i could be away with the pixies but has it been considered that perhaps Labor wants Abbott exactly where he is and getting the attention short term re CC action ?

    As long as he continues to go on about the price of fish and weetbix and as he gets more and more shrill he well may have a longer way to fall when the time comes.

    Just a thought but labor seems keen on keeping him in the picture at the moment.

  46. Wow. That Hartcher article is riven with inconsistencies.

    He wants to give Morrison a tick – and bash Labor over the head – for the fact that he is right to say that boat arrivals have increased “X” amount since 2008 and agrees with him that it is a sign of Labor’s policy failure.

    But later on he acknowledges that Morrison is ignoring that boat arrivals in the first three months of this year were down on the same time the year. Why is that so? Labor’s policy hadn’t changed in that 12 month period, so what does he put that drop down to? Based on his previous logic, he should be patting Labor on the back and saying their policy works – or realise that this is proof that his (and Morrison’s) original argument was bunk.

    The fact is the single greatest influence over AS numbers is push factors. Anything else is tinkering around the edges. As long as people are scared and desperate they will try to come by boat.

    FFS even Howard didn’t stop the boats – they still came, it’s just that the navy turned them back before they got close to Australia. Doesn’t change the fact the push factors were still there – or that this was horrendously expensive way to stop the boats from coming, especially if you are towing them all the way to Nauru!

  48. I agree with Bensen. The best thing the govt can do for now is to continue with its policies, and try as best they can to sell them. Let Malcolm Turnbull take care of Abbott for now.

    confessions

    I agree

  49. Why do some people here have such a problem with Kevin Rudd remaining popular in his home state?
    If Gillard and her advisers were really smart, they’d be using Kevin far more to campaign for them in QLD, where their current levels of support are shockingly woeful.
    Rudd is actually a very activist Foreign Minister, and unlike other members of the Gillard Government, he’s able to publicise, via Twitter and Facebook, what he’s doing in his portfolio.

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