The Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents which shows the Coalition with an imposing 59-41 lead on two-party preferred. This points to a 4 per cent swing compared with the state’s result at the election (55.1-44.9), which is entirely in line with the general picture of national polling. On the primary vote the Coalition is almost doubling Labor, with a lead of 53 per cent to 28 per cent. Even more remarkable is the scale of Julia Gillard’s unpopularity in Queensland: she is favoured as Labor leader by just 19 per cent of respondents compared with 59 per cent for Kevin Rudd, compared with 44 per cent and 33 per cent at the previous such poll in February (Wayne Swan has also dropped from 15 per cent to 9 per cent since then). We are variously told “Tony Abbott has pulled in front of Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister by a strong 16 percentage point margin”, and that “Mr Abbott has pulled ahead of Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister by 53 per cent to 47 per cent”. Hopefully the print edition will clear things up.
UPDATE: JWS Research now has full results from its post-budget automated phone poll of the 20 most marginal seats, which collectively showed an 8 per cent swing to the Coalition since the election. It points to an exacerbation of the state-level divide recorded at the election, with Coalition swings of 8.8 per cent swings in the NSW seats covered (Reid, Banks, Lindsay, Robertson, Greenway, Macquarie) and 9.8 per cent in the Queensland seats
(Petrie, Moreton, Brisbane, Forde, Longman), but only 3.6 per cent in the Victorian seats (Deakin, La Trobe, Corangamite, Dunkley, Aston). Much further detailed is offered in the link, from which Spur212 in comments notes Tony Abbott’s astoundingly poor personal ratings among “soft” and anti-Coalition voters: his net approval is minus 35 among all soft voters, minus 74 among supporters of the opposing major party, minus 63 among minor party/independent supporters and minus 42 among the undecided. The respective figures for Julia Gillard are plus 1, minus 64, plus 3 and minus 12.
HA HA
But as 2UE is currently just a second rate imitation of 2GB, would you notice the difference if Singo owned the joint? 😆
1. Kerry Shine, ALP, Toowoomba North!
3. Mike Horan’s acid (nitric) reaction to the Liberal Coup by broke state branch holding very few seats indeed, against cashed-up Nats holding far more.
3. And a very bitter history. This is Toowoomba, where the past is always our present; we never forgive or forget and many people’s mantra is We’re against any new thing or idea where “new”=”postWWarII”, or earlier!
Joh’s first major move against Libs (Lockyer by-election c1982) was standing & blatantly supporting a Nat candidate against the sitting Liberal member (in a very humiliating effort; the Nat candidate in his car, the Lib having to drive himself behind Joh!). The Nat won. I watched this split community groups (I was in 3), shatter long friendships. August 83, Libs walked out of Coalition; October, Election – Libs Austin & Lane defected to Joh, giving his government in his own right. Some of my surviving friends from both sides still do not speak to each other.
IMO, the only things wrong with this region are that mantra, the ever-so-Pharasitical Troglodytes who chant it and the local sheep who repeat it after them.
Don’t be fooled by a supposed “change of tide” from the MSM (Shana’s calling for more positivity from Abbott etc.)
I can guarantee that within 2 weeks, Abbott will come out with some form of policy idea/future direction that the MSM will jump on as “very positive”. They will then pat Abbott on the back for providing a policy direction and it will be seen as a “breakthrough” or a “gamechanger”.
It will happen like clockwork.
178-DL,
Couldn’t agree more..I think it was yesterday that someone here commented that the OO claim they really do support NBN and have always believed in carbon reduction,yet every article is contra both of these with a passion.
Notice NBN now up and running on mainland OZ and UK Carbon reduction targets announced….OO starting to look stupid on both unless they can take some of the gloss.
Says it all in my op.
203 gloryconsequence
Posted Saturday, May 21, 2011 at 11:07 am \
I’ll back you to the hilt on that prediction.
It will happen like clockwork.
glory consequence
Agreed. Shanahan and his motley crew have their agenda, and anything they say has to be viewed through that filter
It was always going to happen.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/hard-right-tries-to-take-over-uni-liberal-club-20110520-1ewq2.html
In this state of flux and fear mongering what else can be expected from these polls? It aint over yet. Let’s just wait until the 2 and a half years are up. By then the CT will be a reality.
Hell, what a surprise hey? Rudd far more popular in Qld than Gillard.
“It will happen like clockwork.”
Just like a poll from the curious snail around a manufactured comparison between Rudd and Gillard popularity levels in Quinceland when the real leadership rumblings are with the fibs.
And from now MSM will be chasing down Kevin for a sign of disloyalty as a further screen.
For some, the fact that Rudd is still breathing is proof positive of his disloyalty.
daretotread
Surely this poll verifies what I said. The more popular Rudd is, the less popular Gillard is. Rudd is loved in Qld and Gillard’s numbers are diabolical there. 59-41 is a shocker. Abbott is now the preferred PM in Qld.
Rudd’s popularity is NOT helping Gillard.
Any ideas why Galaxy would choose only Qld? Are they going to do other states as well? Just askin.
One other question, why now?
All valid questions I would say.
“Rudd Breathes Disloyalty”
Barrie Cassidy we have just written your next Kev poke headline to Drum.
Doesn’t follow of course. Let’s reverse the situation. So what you are saying is that if Rudd were unpopular Gillard would be very popular in Qld, CT or no CT.
When will PBers stop buying into the confected nonsense re: Julia and Kevin? It’s a predictable “look over there!” strategy that always seems to distract those of us who have latent ADD….
Let’s get back to the things that matter…….please!!
gloryconsequence@203
You’re probably right. But the question is whether the MSM will continue to just act as a partisan cheersquad for someone they now acknowledge as being the key reason the One Liberal Nation party lost the last election (something many of us said at the time right here on PB – and were roundly rebuked for).
Also, Abbott has demonstrated that he is incapable of delivering a genuine policy message. He is basically a thug who can’t manage anything more intellectually challenging than shouting simple three word slogans. This work a treat when you are trying to ridicule and demolish your opponent’s policy position, but the same tactic cannot be used to convince people you have a genuine well-reasoned alternative.
Abbott’s brain flat-lining on camera in February (when a journalist had the temerity to ask a fairly simple question that he wasn’t prepared for) shows just how badly he would perform if he ever had to face a really antagonistic press conference and wasn’t allowed to simply walk off after one or two dorothy dixers. I also recall his abyssmal performances in the various pre-election debates last year.
Also, when you look behind Abbott, where is the depth of front bench talent that could provide the necessary in-depth backup required to flesh out any actual policy? Hockey? – a failure in his chosen portfolio who resorts to bluster and slogan. Turnbull? Too busy sharpening his knives (and his forked tongue). Robb? Unstable, to say the least.
If he tries this tactic he will be easily demolished by a government that is getting stronger and more confident every day.
I actually agreed with most of what Shanahan said today about Gillard’s “long game”.
Was it Machiavelli who said wtte “Do all the bad news in one day, and spread the good news out”? I think this is what Gillard is trying to do… put all the bad stuff at the start of the cycle. Not to mention that poor polling for the ALP right now will make the independents far more comfortable about a full term.
Call me a blind optimist, but I’m happy with the status quo, including the crap polling. And if it keeps going the way it has then anybody who wants a carbon tax and the NBN should feel more optimistic right now than people who don’t.
Rudd’s fall in vote was about 1.5% less than that in the immediately surrounding electorates. This was in the context of a major green campaign which argued that he would quit within months to go to the UN and that they would be back to the polls shortly. If the whole of Brisbane had had just the same poll drop as Rudd, there would have been comfortable wins in the seat of Brisbane and possibly Bonner and even Longman because the Rudd factor combined with poor campaings were factors there.
It is not widse in Qld to compare across the whole state becaue the regions are so different but Rudd’s loss also affected Herbert and Ford both of which would probably have been won with Rudd as leader.
Assuming that all other factors were equal with Rudd as leader it is expected that in 2010 extra seats
Brisbane
Herbert
Howards seat where McHugh would have got over the line because of the Chinese speakers
Possibly 3 others in Queensland
Now assuming that there were some southern state losses or non-gains eg 1 in Vic , SA and WA. this still leaves a Rudd led party with a majority.
The fact that with Rudd as leader they could
1. Have sold the GFC strong performance
2. Trounced the Rabbit in the debates
3. Not had disunity baggage to wear
the actual outcome would have been a very clear majority for labor .
Remember that Rudd was unpopular for 4 main reasons
A The Debt theme successfully promoted by the Libs
B Mining tax fears
C Disappointment with the ETS backdown
D Assylum seekers and the population growth issues
Julia replacing Kevin meant that labor could:
A Not address the economic theme at all giving Abbott a clear win. (The whole world knew that it was kevin and ken henry who did this and the rest including Swan were minor players). Most of the losses in Qld and NSW could have been avoided if the GFC managment was better promoted
B. yes did allow this issue to be put to bed temporarily although not without some damage. I am prepared to say that this issue might have saved on seat in WA
C. Might have adressed C with political skill but this hope was killed stone dead and made much worse by the ridiculous Citizen’s Assembly.
D. Made much worse as an issue for labor by the East Timor debacle. It may have saved Lindsay and Greenway but probalby helped to lose Melbourne and Dennison
I realise it is hard for those who supported the “upset” of June 2010 to admit they were wrong, but if the caravan is to move on and the wounds to heal, they had better start to get over it.
No, that is not a logical inference based on my comment that Rudd’s popularity is not helping Gillard.
Tobe 217 – I agree.
Barnaby bangs on about sharia law in today’s OO, as if sharia law is imminent.
You have to hand it to the coalition. When internal tensions come to the fore in the Liberal party, they return to Old Faithful as a diversionary tactic: stirring up divisions in society.
You said more than that. You suggested there is a correlation between Gillard’s polling and Rudd’s polling.
Doyley
Abbott is pretty short on original thought and action, but a bit longer on absorbing the strategies of others. The 100% focus on the government is a copy of Howard’s strategy in 95-96.
The current touring the countryside comparing the price of Weetbix and fish pre and post carbon pricing is a pinch from Keating’s anti-GST campaign against Hewson.
The big flaw with that is that Keating’s campaign was short and sweet, doing enough to raise doubts about an opposition proposal. This time around it’s a government policy and will be in force long before the next election (barring accidents and sudden deaths). And it’s doubtful if such prolonged negativism can stand up over that length of time.
Like you, I think the long game is in Labor’s favour. It just requires patience and holding the nerves. Let’s take heart from George Washington. He lost just about every battle with the British, except the last.
Gary
The opposite is not true.
And nor is your theory. Gillard’s popularity or lack of it could have as much to do with the CT as anything else. Rudd already had the sympathy of Qlders because of the way the change of leadership took place, even though of course they were ready to rip him apart at the 2010 election if given the chance.
This “Labor operative” agrees.
The Libs have had internal issues for ages. Abbott got his second wind when Labor announced carbon price framework back in Feb. Labor has suffered ever since, and Abbott has been given free license to rant and scream. The polls reflect that. Abbott is winnng the battle, but Labor have their eye on winning the war.
if things were so good in the Liberal camp, why is Hockey floundering and Turnbull opening his mouth?
Anyone know where this “push” for sharia law came from? There was a hint about it last week, but now Barnaby has picked it up…. is it real or a fabrication?
Doesn’t make it right. In this climate Gillard would be “losing out” whther Kev was there or not.
BTW, a ‘Labor operative’? Is that like ‘unknown sources’?
There is real instability in the coalition ranks right now. Do the msm really want to look?
Just out of curiosity did Galaxy poll the preferred Liberal leader?
In Queensland, my guess is Abbott would be miles ahead of Turnbull.
I’m sure that wouldn’t hurt News Ltd’s narrative … whoops I’ve said too much 🙂
Laura Tingle on page 28 of today’s AFR. Discussing Malcolm Turnbull’s intervention this week. The heading is “He can’t beat Tony Abbott so why fight?”
well reading but not posting but.
agree with mark j the is a distraction re julia and kev again and again and you all fall for it and discuss it.
thats exactly what the msm want you to do,
we dont know how many people where in the above poll, doesnt say does it and see oz polls thought about same poll.
just had a friend here complaining about julia boats ect labor spin doctors hopless
this person had no idea about shock jocks and even who owns the media.
Because a poll that says Gillard is doing OK doesn’t suit the agenda.
Victoria,
That Lib instability is not going away. It will gnaw away for the next few months – and come to a head by mid 2012.
Even amongst Labor voters, Rudd was preferred to Gillard 57% to 34%.
Great post! But I wouldn’t say “white”. Bris is very multicultural; but less obviously as many “old” nonESP migrants (Italian, Greek, Maltese, Lebanese) headed for regions, esp cane fields & mines (Bris never had big Jewish community, no idea why). Different with nonEuro migrants from sub/tropical climates.
Bris always had a strong Chinese community (esp market gardeners) though not as large as melb’s & Sydney’s; rather obvious in a small population; descendants of gold miners & their families (added to by Holt’s mid-50s initial changes to WAP.) Probably the climate attracted many Vietnamese & other Boatpeople (very obvious for the same reason), though pop was larger (Bris pop boom came with death duty’s end & “the Mexican invasion”; sun lovers fleeing Melbourne’s winter). Hard on Boat people’s heels came Latin American refugees & some MidEast from revolutions in Iraq & Iran; more recently, Africans as well.
Bris was my home town until the 70s, and OH’s and my families lived there. So I’ve watched it change from the outside more objectively as time passed & I spent as much time in Sydney & Melb. One stark difference is the ways people chatter about things, inc class & migrants.
Bris’s sprawl, and distribution of up/down-market housing (with floods, up/ down market is usually where on the hill one lives, with creek/ river sides undesirable; so differences come down to “where in what street”) diffuses migrants and lessens obvious ghettos. Besides, for 6 mths, it’s too blo#dy hot & sweaty to get “thing” about anything.
BTW, the coffee’s great, some of it grown and/or processed in Q; Merlo’s and some of the liqueur & spice brews availabe in SEQ boutique grocers & markets (inc Tmba’s). Knowing where it is takes local knowledge. And it’s too b hot to wangk about that, too.
A comment left on Mumble’s blog. No idea of whether it’s just scuttlebutt or something else.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/oz_v_us_deficits/P50/#4338498
madcyril
Thanks for posting Laura Tingles comments. that is precisely my point about Turnbull.
his comments would not gain him anything right now but scorn from party members. Turnbull like the govt is looking to the future, not short term. Abbott’s mantra is going to ring hollow soon enough
In Qld? Well surprise, surprise.
lizzie:
Barnaby refers to a federal MP’s comments. But apart from that, it’s just a beat up.
The CT debate has cost Labor 4% in the polls. Gillard’s popularity decline and Rudd’s rise is just a collateral effect, as is Abbott’s as the dissatisfied are forced to place their disapproval somewhere.
Th most interesting thing about today’s coverage is that Shanahan has discovered that Labor is playing a long game. Labor have expected to take a hit in the polls because they have decided to go with action on the various policy initiatives.
If Labor have not recovered by Xmas 2012 then they may contemplate a change. Until then, it will be soldier on and plenty of grist for the grizzlers.
Diogenes: wow. Do you think that “Labor operative” be any more equivocal?
Opinion; on top of assumption; leading to confirmation of original opinion. Classic strawman.
Who are these “Labor operatives” anyway? Sounds a bit too try-hard for my liking. Someone trying to convince people they are a player, when they are so far removed from the action all they can do is speculate like the rest of us.
confessions
I really doubt Turnbull is doing this for the treasury position. what a laugh. He believes in a fair dinkum climate policy. Labor and The Greens are being crucified in the msm. best way to interject, is for a coalition mp to dump on his own party’s crap policy. Really, there is no tea leaves to be read. It is simple. Turnbull even twitted his stance in this, just to make sure that the msm are clear.
It’s a broken record. There will be no scrutiny on the Coalition when it matters.
confessions
Thanks. The fed politician wasn’t Morrison or Bernardi, was it?
glory consequence
If my vibe is right, the msm will have no choice but to scrutinize eventually
Really? Like, before an election? Perhaps like the one we just had? When Abbott got the biggest free ride in political history?
glory consequence
I understand your pessimism. Time will tell I guess.
Danny
You don’t know what a “strawman” argument is, do you?