The latest Newspoll has produced the 54-46 two-party preferred result the market has come to expect, but with Julia Gillard taking a hammering on her personal ratings: approval down four to 34 per cent, disapproval up six to 55 per cent. However, Tony Abbott is down too, contrary to other polls from recent weeks: his approval is down four points to 38 per cent and disapproval up three to 51 per cent. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is down to just four points: her own rating is down three points to 42 per cent, with and Abbott up two to 38 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 33 per cent with the Coalition up two to 46 per cent and the Greens down two to 10 per cent.
The poll also finds that the tough-medicine angle on the budget is the one that has gained currency: 37 per cent believe it will be good for the economy against 32 per cent bad, but fully 41 per cent believe it will make them worse off personally against only 11 per cent who think it will make them better off. As it is with so many things these days, opinion as to whether the Coalition would have delivered a better budget is evenly split: 38 per cent say yes, 41 per cent say no. However, the latter number would include those who believe they would have done no better or worse, so this would have to be rated a positive set of numbers for the Coalition. Figures as always courtesy of GhostWhoVotes on Twitter. UPDATE: And now full tables.
UPDATE: The montly Nielsen poll is even worse for the government, though not actually worse than in the previous Nielsen poll a month ago: the results are steady for two-party preferred (56-44) and both major parties’ primary votes, with the Coalition leading Labor 47 per cent to 31 per cent. As in Newspoll, the Greens have dropped two to 10 per cent. Personal ratings are bewilderingly different from Newspoll’s: Julia Gillard is down two on approval and up two on disapproval, but her totals of 43 per cent and 52 per cent. The poll provides further evidence that Tony Abbott’s position has improved over the past month, his approval up three to 45 per cent and disapproval down one to 50 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-42 to 47-44. The budget was rated “fair” by 42 per cent and not fair by 39 per cent. There were also questions on the deal with Malaysia on asylum seekers, the results of which are summarised thus by Michelle Grattan of The Age:
Just over a third (35 per cent) support the Malaysian deal, including a bare majority (51 per cent) of Labor voters. Less than a quarter of Coalition voters (23 per cent) support it, and 45 per cent of Green voters. More than seven in 10 Coalition voters and nearly four in 10 Labor voters are against it. Asked about the policy’s effectiveness, 23 per cent predicted it would increase arrivals by boat, while only 16 per cent said it would reduce them. Of those who support the measure, 57 per cent think it will make no difference and 12 per cent believe it will increase arrivals – just 28 per cent think it will reduce them. Among those opposed, 60 per cent say it will make no difference, 30 per cent believe it will increase arrivals and a mere 8 per cent think it will reduce them. The Malaysia solution has the most support in Western Australia.
We also had on Saturday a Galaxy poll which found the budget to be deemed good by 28 per cent and bad by 39 per cent, comparing with respective figures of 43 per cent and 28 per cent last year. Only 11 per cent of respondents deemed Labor “sound managers” of the economy, down six points on last year, with “poor managers” up eight points to 33 per cent. In a gobsmacking repudiation of reality, fully 47 per cent of respondents were ready to nominate a family income of $150,000 as “about average” – as of 2007-08, the planet Earth figure for median household income was $66,820. Only 44 per cent acknowledged such an income as “very rich” or “quite rich”. It was also found 51 per cent were opposed to the government’s plan to provide free digital set-top boxes for pensioners, with 45 per cent supportive. Full results from GhostWhoVotes.
Notable local happenings:
• Jon Stanhope has resigned as Chief Minister of the Australian Capital Territory after 10 years in the job, and will formally quit parliament next week. His deputy, Katy Gallagher, was chosen by caucus to succeed Stanhope without opposition. Stanhope’s vacancy in the Legislative Assembly will be filled by a re-count of the votes that elected him to his Ginninderra electorate seat at the 2008 election. In practice this means it will go to whichever of the unsuccessful Labor candidates from the election chooses to nominate. These included Adina Cirson, a staffer to Gallagher who polled 5.0 per cent of the ttoal vote at the election; David Peebles, who holds a senior position at the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and polled 4.9 per cent; and Chris Bourke, a dentist of Aboriginal background. Noel Towell of the Canberra Times reports that Peebles “has been offered and accepted a job as Australia’s Deputy High Commissioner to the Solomon Islands and is thought to be unlikely to accept an Assembly seat”, which would appear to make the position available for Cirson should she choose to accept it.
• Four months after resigning as Tasmanian Premier, David Bartlett has announced his resignation from parliament. This will activate a recount similar to the one outlined above. The three unsuccessful candidates from Bartlett’s division of Denison included two incumbents – Lisa Singh, who had been a minister, and the accident-prone Graeme Sturges – both of whom lost out to Labor newcomer Scott Bacon. The other candidate on the ticket was Madeleine Ogilvie, a barrister. Singh has since been elected to the Senate, where she will assume her seat on July 1, and is hence not a starter. Ogilvie has confirmed she will seek the position, while Sturges has been reported saying he is “considering his options”.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research has turned in a bit of a surprise, with the Coalition lead narrowing from 54-46 to 52-48. This comes from a one point drop on the Coalition primary vote to 46 per cent, a one point rise for Labor to 36 per cent and a one point rise for the Greens to 11 per cent. The poll nonetheless finds a generally negative response to the budget: 29 per cent believe it will be bad for them personally against 11 per cent bad; 25 per cent think bad for business against 20 per cent good; and 29 per cent say bad for the economy overall against 27 per cent good. Despite that, a question on whether the economy is headed in the right or wrong direction produces near identical results to last year’s post-budget poll, with 46 per cent saying it is and 29 per cent saying it isn’t. On the question of which party “would be best at handling the Australian economy in the interests of you and people like you”, 40 per cent say Liberal and 30 per cent say Labor.
There ia also a question on asylum seekers which to my mind mostly demonstrates how much trouble pollsters can get into when their questions seek to explain things to respondents. The question in this case being: “Do you support or oppose the Government’s plan to send asylum seekers arriving by boat in Australia to PNG and Malaysia if it means it will cost taxpayers substantially more than it would if we just processed asylum seekers on the mainland in Australia.” And since they put it like that: 60 per cent say oppose, 24 per cent say support. Which sounds like good news of a kind for supporters of a liberal stand on the issue, but only because tougher approaches were left off the menu.
UPDATE 3 (17/5/11): JWS Research has polled 2141 people in the 10 most marginal Labor and Coalition seats, finding an aggregate 58-42 result in the Coalition’s favour on voting intention. Fully 50 per cent of respondents rated the Howard government the best of Australia’s last five – though it should be noted here that “government” was defined in terms of who the prime minister was, so that the Labor vote was split four ways. Very similar personal ratings were recorded for Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott – 33 per cent approval and 44 per cent disapproval for the former, against 33 per cent and 46 per cent for the latter. Findings on the budget were broadly in line with other recent polling, with a slight majority deeming it good for the economy and a larger one deeming it bad for them personally.
Fancy Geriatric Pensioner talking about totalitarianism when he doesn’t even know what liberal means. 😆
[How would that impact on a market economy]
I think GP had better stick to cooking!
[Gweneth
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 11:10 pm | Permalink
No Gus. I beg to differ. No poll released today will pick up on changes to the media message in the last 24 hours.
And this poll was predictable from a week away.
]
Exactly – the only reason why the PPM is close is Abbott’s Job Application Speech on Thursday Night.
GP – tell me how you feel about media monopoly.
No 149
Whatever SK. You don’t support free speech, you support government speech.
frank,gwen
now aint the timeto bury your heads in the sand
stand firm until the 1st july
Rudd and Gillard can’t stand each other, so I doubt we’ll ever see them sharing the same platform again.
But it’s true that Kevin is one of the Government’s few genuine performers currently, as much as the Labor hacks inside the caucus despise the man and want him gone from parliament. 🙂
[Gusface
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 11:11 pm | Permalink
further
franj, and by extension GG and co, the problm aint the greens
its the fibs and the media
DONT LOSE SIGHT OF THAT
]
Then explain why the movement from the Greens hasn’t shifted to LLabor ?
I’ve told you 3 times already tonight.
It’s the soft small l component of the Greens who are coming home to Mumma \via the axing of certain Govt Welfare.
Remember, it’s Abbott who admitted he prefers “Guided Democracy”.
No 154
There is no media monopoly now that we have the internet.
[Rudd and Gillard can’t stand each other]
LIE
jg and kr are closer than you suspect
the issue is not lab or green
its the MSM and the Fibs
[156
Gusface
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 11:14 pm | Permalink
frank,gwen
now aint the timeto bury your heads in the sand
stand firm until the 1st july
]
gus,
you are on the helium again.
Gwn and I have a firmer grip on reality than you 🙂
Your predictions of the NSW Election and 2001 may be a clue 🙂
[There is no media monopoly now that we have the internet.]
Not a monopoly of ownership (well, not quite) but a near-uniformity of bias towards the wingnut party.
Um evan14,
Howard and Costello couldn’t stand each other either.
The Gillard / Rudd relationship is fully professional, like it should be!
What do you want thenm to do, sleep together!
frank
back to old habits, i see
🙁
Just refer to my comments made after the last few months of these polls. I’ll just assume everyone will say the same thing they’ve been saying so far as well.
That’s good news Frank.
The Greens vote has shifted to the Coalition. Big Whoopywoo! Straight back to Julia on election night 😀
[Gusface
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 11:18 pm | Permalink
frank
back to old habits, i see
]
Erm
Hpw can a reference to Herium – which EVERYONE uses pllus a reminder of your past predicts constitute a “back to old habits” ?
[Howard and Costello couldn’t stand each other either.
The Gillard / Rudd relationship is fully professional, like it should be!]
The Gillard/Rudd relationship is more professional than the Howard/Costello one. Even after all that’s happened to him KR has resisted the temptation to snipe at Julia. Which is more than can be said for the gutless Tip and his years of pouting and occasionally snarling at the rodent.
[Just refer to my comments made after the last few months of these polls. I’ll just assume everyone will say the same thing they’ve been saying so far as well.]
you support an effective 10% bleed in the polls
and 20% in the PPM
COOL
🙁
we’ll all be ruined but the eagles won so i don’t care …
Gus
No. You need to read the play. I am an old time political player. Sorry but, someone said it earlier – baseline – we have just seen peak Abbott.
Other people with my experience on Abbott’s team know it too. And they will do anything to change that fact.
But they know it.
If I know it.
Sleep well tonight. I know I will, now. 🙂
[you support an effective 10% bleed in the polls
and 20% in the PPM
COOL]
Couldn’t careless at this stage to be honest.
And both St George & the Swans won over the weekend, so it ain’t all bad. 😉
[These polls are disastrous for Labor, regardless of Frank’s imbecilic tomfoolery.]
And how will they help your side in 2 and a half years?
Issues the Government is going to have to face between now and the next election:
Fukushima is a massive disaster yet to reveal its full consequences including that on its economy and its people.
The US will inevitably have to go the path of QE3 which will continue to boost global inflation, and instability in the middle east, problems for China but have little domestic effect apart for staying default (at the expense of accelerating the deficit) – it will be one massive pushing on a string.
Europe’s PIIGS are creaking and groaning – Greece is a Monty to snap with the knock-on effect of that on some European banks. A possible domino. A the Germans are getting less and less happy by the day in bailing out Greece again.
China’s inflation problem is greater than officially declared (surprise) inevitably economic growth will have to be slowed some more with consequent knock on effect to Treasury revenues in Aust through lower demand.
Inflation and high employment create a interest rate problem for Aust and it doesn’t take much to switch a buoyant economy into a basket case if the crowd loses confidence in a hurry withe a softening housing market, increased defaults, rate rises, inflation…a higher dollar will depress certain areas of the economy…and so on.
The middle east is a political mess in the making with the price of oil at stake and market confidence also.
169: If you call leaking during an election campaign and that Q&A performance professional.
[Gweneth
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 11:23 pm | Permalink
Gus
No. You need to read the play. I am an old time political player. Sorry but, someone said it earlier – baseline – we have just seen peak Abbott.
Other people with my experience on Abbott’s team know it too. And they will do anything to change that fact.
But they know it.
If I know it.
Sleep well tonight. I know I will, now.
]
Just ask Mark Latham 🙂
[These polls are disastrous for Labor, regardless of Frank’s imbecilic tomfoolery.]
True, but even you surely would admit that Abbott’s benefitting from a supportive media cheersquad.
[Gary
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 11:24 pm | Permalink
These polls are disastrous for Labor, regardless of Frank’s imbecilic tomfoolery.
And how will they help your side in 2 and a half years?
]
I seem to recall a Mr Latham having similar strotpheric figures prior to an election in 2004.
and we all know what happened there 🙂
No good spending much time here while each person says the same thing they did after the last set of polls.
If anything, Rudd’s behaved with more decorum and honour than anyone might have expected, despite the constant criticism I read of him on this forum.
Why the Labor caucus as a whole hates this man so much is beyond me – goodness knows that they’re worse off under the regime they badly wanted to replace Rudd.
Cuppa – where is the bias in Fairfax? Ross Gittins, Peter Hartcher, Mike Carlton are sympathetic aren’t they.
No doubt you have an eagle eye for those who are not sympathetic but the whole oragnisation biased?
You try and fight too many fronts including those who you admire like Denmore don’t have in their line of attack.
News and the Australian Hotels Association are the enemy, ok!
TP@137
Strangely I have been thinking about this myself. I do think there is merit in what you say.
On that note, night all!
[The Malaysia solution has the most support in Western Australia.]
🙂
Peak Abbott.
I was worried about when it would come.
Now it is certain. What a relief. Thanks GP. biasdetector et. al.
Thanks mates
Good grief, the internet is an interesting beast isn’t it? It used to to weeks to make sure of this stuff.
[Brave Sir Gary of Say Nothing]
Brave Sir Gus of Repeat Everything That’s Been Said Before.
cmon
why the snip??
Evan, are you alright?
I usually get to see most of the end of Question Time and I can’t see how Rudd is supposedly hated by all.
He talks to many of his colleagues on the way out and they talk to him and the conversations appear jovial, mate get a grip!
[
186
Gweneth
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 11:31 pm | Permalink
Peak Abbott.
I was worried about when it would come.
Now it is certain. What a relief. Thanks GP. biasdetector et. al.
Thanks mates
Good grief, the internet is an interesting beast isn’t it? It used to to weeks to make sure of this stuff.
]
Post Budget polls have traditinally bee bad for Govts – it’s the nature of the beeast.
And thrIndis are going nowhere.
All is fine 🙂
[Brave Sir Gus of Repeat Everything That’s Been Said Before]
I note how you seem to trump most polls
👿
Go back and read what I wrote again, Shellbell. I took care to say explicitly that not ALL the media is biased towards the Liberals.
[You try and fight too many fronts including those who you admire like Denmore don’t have in their line of attack.
News and the Australian Hotels Association are the enemy, ok!]
Whatever you’re on, I wouldn’t mind some! 😉
[I note how you seem to trump most polls]
I have no idea what you mean by this but don’t bother. I’m not interested in finding out.
[193
Gusface
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 11:34 pm | Permalink
Post Budget polls have traditinally bee bad for Govts – it’s the nature of the beeast.
outright lie!
]
see 2007 for a start 🙂
Though the polls continue to be awful and getting worse , I am not worried as the only poll that matters is in late 2013.
Even though we only hold government thanks to a few conservative turncoat media whores I am not worried.
What continues to worry and so many of the righteous fellow travellers is the absolute media bias and the conspiracy by Rupe to take over the Australian zeitgeist.
People if they have a fair chance to truly analyze the facts as presented by Bernard Keane , John Pilger and almost anyone on the Drum online could see that in JG we have one of the potentially great Australian Prime Ministers. She is already up there with Scullin, Bruce! McMahon and Hughesy in the pantheon of brilliance.
Long may she and Tim reign.
Quite right SK tell those eighths like GP to bugger off this site is an officially sanctioned left leaning forum.
No trolls please and no poll analysis except by inferring that the media has manipulated opinion and that we can’t think for ourselves.
Cuppa – yep all the media would include Fairfax. Now are you saying that they are pro-Libs or not?
[see 2007 for a start]
frank
[the one swallow, a summer makes]
Defence
went out with the wheel
🙁
[cmon
why the snip??]
Because about a dozen comments have passed since you last made a political point of any kind. All you’re doing is attacking other commenters. Stop doing it, or stop coming here.
It was interesting that election when Labor hacks and the right went all out to smear and denigrate Rudd for the purpose of making Gillard look better and try to provide grounds for legitimacy. I mean gee, they (toxic right wing) leaked against Rudd at the time, no surprise some on the Rudd side of the camp returned the favour. Very professional by Gillard and her little group of cane toads at the time.
Gillard was well and truly in a toxic rut at the time of Rudd’s comments.
My position is even more so now than at the election that the best thing for Australian politics would be for Labor to lose given that it is becoming a second Liberal party with the likes of Gillard and her right wing nasties controlling the party. It is also good timing as the Coalition dont have control of the Senate. Labor needs a kick in the nuts, the right wing cabal destroyed and Labor move some way back to the left again.
The political centre needs to be dragged back to the left. Gillard is dragging it way to the right at an accelerating pace. This is bad and helps legitimise the views of right wing of the Liberal Party hitherto seen as too loonie.
[199
shellbell
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 11:37 pm | Permalink
Cuppa – yep all the media would include Fairfax. Now are you saying that they are pro-Libs or not?
]
Fairfax Radio are certainly no friend of Labor.