The latest Newspoll has produced the 54-46 two-party preferred result the market has come to expect, but with Julia Gillard taking a hammering on her personal ratings: approval down four to 34 per cent, disapproval up six to 55 per cent. However, Tony Abbott is down too, contrary to other polls from recent weeks: his approval is down four points to 38 per cent and disapproval up three to 51 per cent. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is down to just four points: her own rating is down three points to 42 per cent, with and Abbott up two to 38 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 33 per cent with the Coalition up two to 46 per cent and the Greens down two to 10 per cent.
The poll also finds that the tough-medicine angle on the budget is the one that has gained currency: 37 per cent believe it will be good for the economy against 32 per cent bad, but fully 41 per cent believe it will make them worse off personally against only 11 per cent who think it will make them better off. As it is with so many things these days, opinion as to whether the Coalition would have delivered a better budget is evenly split: 38 per cent say yes, 41 per cent say no. However, the latter number would include those who believe they would have done no better or worse, so this would have to be rated a positive set of numbers for the Coalition. Figures as always courtesy of GhostWhoVotes on Twitter. UPDATE: And now full tables.
UPDATE: The montly Nielsen poll is even worse for the government, though not actually worse than in the previous Nielsen poll a month ago: the results are steady for two-party preferred (56-44) and both major parties’ primary votes, with the Coalition leading Labor 47 per cent to 31 per cent. As in Newspoll, the Greens have dropped two to 10 per cent. Personal ratings are bewilderingly different from Newspoll’s: Julia Gillard is down two on approval and up two on disapproval, but her totals of 43 per cent and 52 per cent. The poll provides further evidence that Tony Abbott’s position has improved over the past month, his approval up three to 45 per cent and disapproval down one to 50 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-42 to 47-44. The budget was rated “fair” by 42 per cent and not fair by 39 per cent. There were also questions on the deal with Malaysia on asylum seekers, the results of which are summarised thus by Michelle Grattan of The Age:
Just over a third (35 per cent) support the Malaysian deal, including a bare majority (51 per cent) of Labor voters. Less than a quarter of Coalition voters (23 per cent) support it, and 45 per cent of Green voters. More than seven in 10 Coalition voters and nearly four in 10 Labor voters are against it. Asked about the policy’s effectiveness, 23 per cent predicted it would increase arrivals by boat, while only 16 per cent said it would reduce them. Of those who support the measure, 57 per cent think it will make no difference and 12 per cent believe it will increase arrivals – just 28 per cent think it will reduce them. Among those opposed, 60 per cent say it will make no difference, 30 per cent believe it will increase arrivals and a mere 8 per cent think it will reduce them. The Malaysia solution has the most support in Western Australia.
We also had on Saturday a Galaxy poll which found the budget to be deemed good by 28 per cent and bad by 39 per cent, comparing with respective figures of 43 per cent and 28 per cent last year. Only 11 per cent of respondents deemed Labor “sound managers” of the economy, down six points on last year, with “poor managers” up eight points to 33 per cent. In a gobsmacking repudiation of reality, fully 47 per cent of respondents were ready to nominate a family income of $150,000 as “about average” – as of 2007-08, the planet Earth figure for median household income was $66,820. Only 44 per cent acknowledged such an income as “very rich” or “quite rich”. It was also found 51 per cent were opposed to the government’s plan to provide free digital set-top boxes for pensioners, with 45 per cent supportive. Full results from GhostWhoVotes.
Notable local happenings:
• Jon Stanhope has resigned as Chief Minister of the Australian Capital Territory after 10 years in the job, and will formally quit parliament next week. His deputy, Katy Gallagher, was chosen by caucus to succeed Stanhope without opposition. Stanhope’s vacancy in the Legislative Assembly will be filled by a re-count of the votes that elected him to his Ginninderra electorate seat at the 2008 election. In practice this means it will go to whichever of the unsuccessful Labor candidates from the election chooses to nominate. These included Adina Cirson, a staffer to Gallagher who polled 5.0 per cent of the ttoal vote at the election; David Peebles, who holds a senior position at the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and polled 4.9 per cent; and Chris Bourke, a dentist of Aboriginal background. Noel Towell of the Canberra Times reports that Peebles “has been offered and accepted a job as Australia’s Deputy High Commissioner to the Solomon Islands and is thought to be unlikely to accept an Assembly seat”, which would appear to make the position available for Cirson should she choose to accept it.
• Four months after resigning as Tasmanian Premier, David Bartlett has announced his resignation from parliament. This will activate a recount similar to the one outlined above. The three unsuccessful candidates from Bartlett’s division of Denison included two incumbents – Lisa Singh, who had been a minister, and the accident-prone Graeme Sturges – both of whom lost out to Labor newcomer Scott Bacon. The other candidate on the ticket was Madeleine Ogilvie, a barrister. Singh has since been elected to the Senate, where she will assume her seat on July 1, and is hence not a starter. Ogilvie has confirmed she will seek the position, while Sturges has been reported saying he is “considering his options”.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research has turned in a bit of a surprise, with the Coalition lead narrowing from 54-46 to 52-48. This comes from a one point drop on the Coalition primary vote to 46 per cent, a one point rise for Labor to 36 per cent and a one point rise for the Greens to 11 per cent. The poll nonetheless finds a generally negative response to the budget: 29 per cent believe it will be bad for them personally against 11 per cent bad; 25 per cent think bad for business against 20 per cent good; and 29 per cent say bad for the economy overall against 27 per cent good. Despite that, a question on whether the economy is headed in the right or wrong direction produces near identical results to last year’s post-budget poll, with 46 per cent saying it is and 29 per cent saying it isn’t. On the question of which party “would be best at handling the Australian economy in the interests of you and people like you”, 40 per cent say Liberal and 30 per cent say Labor.
There ia also a question on asylum seekers which to my mind mostly demonstrates how much trouble pollsters can get into when their questions seek to explain things to respondents. The question in this case being: “Do you support or oppose the Government’s plan to send asylum seekers arriving by boat in Australia to PNG and Malaysia if it means it will cost taxpayers substantially more than it would if we just processed asylum seekers on the mainland in Australia.” And since they put it like that: 60 per cent say oppose, 24 per cent say support. Which sounds like good news of a kind for supporters of a liberal stand on the issue, but only because tougher approaches were left off the menu.
UPDATE 3 (17/5/11): JWS Research has polled 2141 people in the 10 most marginal Labor and Coalition seats, finding an aggregate 58-42 result in the Coalition’s favour on voting intention. Fully 50 per cent of respondents rated the Howard government the best of Australia’s last five – though it should be noted here that “government” was defined in terms of who the prime minister was, so that the Labor vote was split four ways. Very similar personal ratings were recorded for Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott – 33 per cent approval and 44 per cent disapproval for the former, against 33 per cent and 46 per cent for the latter. Findings on the budget were broadly in line with other recent polling, with a slight majority deeming it good for the economy and a larger one deeming it bad for them personally.
stanny elephant stamp! The whole thing is too pathetic for words.
william
sorry
i forgot, i should just take personal attacks on the chin
🙁
It is raining in WA (a little bit). Is that an omen?
that is fair cop, Frank – Fairfax newspapers then?
Yes Gusface, that would indeed be the adult thing to do.
[203
Gusface
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 11:41 pm | Permalink
william
sorry
i forgot, i should just take personal attacks on the chin
]
well I am 🙂
And I feel much better for it as well.
Gweneth:
I think we passed Peak Abbott some time ago, back before the carbon tax was announced.
{Sigh} Shellbell this is what I said,
[Not a monopoly of ownership (well, not quite) but a near-uniformity of bias towards the wingnut party.]
What’s your debate? About WHICH journos/news stables are NOT biased?
I’ll leave you to your opinion about which journalists / news stables are not in the Liberal camp. I have my own views on that but they’re neither here nor there in the context of my original statement.
Tell me again, what is your argument?
william
your blog, your cagematch
[shellbell
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 11:42 pm | Permalink
that is fair cop, Frank – Fairfax newspapers then?
]
Fairfax are more attacking Labor from a Greens/Left perspective than a pro Liberal angle.
The West Austeralian – hey they are simply a mouthpiece for Twiggy and his ilk 🙂
Off to bed, sleep well Bludgers, especially Frank! 😉
I have been reading all these pages to catch up and I noticed that same pattern that always manifests after Abbott-a-bad gains a point of two. The Fib’s night-soil cart trundles through PB, spilling some of its load along the way.
[evan14
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 11:47 pm | Permalink
Off to bed, sleep well Bludgers, especially Frank!
]
I do now after deciding Panamex is the best reliever of shoulder pain – beats all the prescription only stuff – plus it doesn’t make me drowsy either.
I think that in the middle of the media wankery that’s going to go on yet again about how awesome Abbott is and how poorly Gillard is doing, its always important to remember that they’re trying two very different jobs.
Gillard:
-Has to implement complex policies that are hard to boil down in three word slogans.
-Doesn’t get the airwaves to be able to explain them in sufficient detail.
-Has to keep several other interests in government happy. (though granted, this is made easier by Abbott being so offputting to them all.)
-Will get blasted by two sides of politics.
-Has a large echo chamber shouting about how bad she is.
-Can’t get away with repeating herself much.
-Will have any mistakes brought up over and over again, whether or not they are considered by mistakes by anyone outside the MSM.
-Will have almost anything turned into an excuse for ‘WILL RUDD RETURN?’ or ‘LURCH TO THE RIGHT’.
-Is female. (I still suspect there’s more sexism out there than most people assume, alas.)
-Has the opposition of Rupert Murdoch.
Abbott:
-Doesn’t need to think of coherent policy and is able to oppose policy with three word slogans.
-Has the luxury of going about and shouting a lot.
-Can get away with repeating slogans.
-Will only be blasted by only one side of politics. (there aren’t enough moderate Liberals for them to really be a factor here.)
-Has a large echo chamber shouting about how great he is.
-Can relax knowing that any mistakes will be wiped away after a day or two at most. (and that’s if they’re exposed at all. See how close the Coalition came to getting away with their shonky budget costings.)
-Will have rumors of tensions wiped away quickly.
-Is fully able to contradict himself.
-Is male.
-Has the support of Rupert Murdoch.
Wrecking is always easier than building. It could be said this is tradition for Prime Minister/Opposition Leader, but under Abbott’s style of leadership the differences are ramped up.
We passed peak Abbott (years ago) but I think the MSM may have (finally) too. That is my point. Anyway, I am still at the barricade and my powder is dry. 😉 More rain falling…
[212
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 11:47 pm | Permalink
I have been reading all these pages to catch up and I noticed that same pattern that always manifests after Abbott-a-bad gains a point of two. The Fib’s night-soil cart trundles through PB, spilling some of its load along the way.
]
Yep, while the worry warts encounter changing of underpants moments when really it isn’t really warrented – they are those same people who criticised “the ALP Right” to stop being so poll driven, yet now are doing what they complained about.
They have now turned into Mark Arbib/Karl Bitar 🙂 – the very people they complaineed about.
william
1 Q
where do you draw the line?
the Lib night cart – exactly Puff – we lay land mines…
Frank`s argument that the Greens primary going down and the Coalition primary going up by the same amount is small “l” liberal voters moving back from the Greens to the Liberals over non-indexation reducing the welfare that would otherwise have gone to upper-middle class households has some merit but I would argue that this would be the cause of only a minority of this change and that the majority is voters moving from the ALP to the Liberals over the indexation (and other issues) being covered by voters who are happier with the Government over the Budget moving from the Greens to the ALP.
ttfab
careful
the polling supports your hypothesis
😉
[215
Gweneth
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 11:50 pm | Permalink
We passed peak Abbott (years ago) but I think the MSM may have (finally) too. That is my point. Anyway, I am still at the barricade and my powder is dry. More rain falling…
]
Agreed, while the Gret unwashed were impressed by Abbott’s Job application on Thursday Night – the media finally had that lightbulb being switched on oin their heads about how dangerous the man is.
Abbott will soon discover wgho his real media friends will be from now on.
The rain keeps falling… luxury 🙂
Work tomorrow.
Hold formation. We have passed peak Abbott!
[Gweneth
Posted Monday, May 16, 2011 at 12:00 am | Permalink
The rain keeps falling… luxury
Work tomorrow.
Hold formation. We have passed peak Abbott!
]
Plus there is the WA Budget on Thursday 🙂
That will be peak Barnett 🙂
[Hold formation. We have passed peak Abbott!]
Ummm
gwen
its not peak abbott
its the fact that the ppm is almost 0
Pretty simple Cuppa. Absent some notable exceptions (News & talkback) we have a diverse media representing a wide range of views. Those of your enthusiasts who talk about threats to media outlets, baseball bats etc should be a little more pointed in what they mean, a bit like you should be.
You said near uniformity – that must mean there only a few exceptions to your mantra?
If so, how come when I mentioned Fairfax, you pursued the faux outrage line?
Good thoughtful post, thanks Rishane.
william
thanks for your considered response
I do not think it is any surprise that the polls are where they are. This is where they will stay for quite a while as well so it will most probably be most productive for the bearers of doom and gloom to just cut and paste for the next few months. It will save time and energy.
Just three quick points.
Firstly. Labor is at rock bottom at around 31-33%. The libs have not grabbed any primary from them even after the feral attacks by Murdoch last week. The only movement seems to be greens to libs. I can only assume that the soft greens have now been flushed out and the greens rock bottom base is 10%. Where is Abbott going to get any further boost from ?
Secondly. What is going to happen when Abbott has his pants pulled down when the budget kicks in and most people realise they will not be worse off ?
Thirdly. The polls are bad. Nothing we can do. It will play out as it plays out. It will be one hell of a ride but Abbott will be in opposition not government.
On the approval ratings – I reckon that reflects the fact that Gillard has largely disappeared from view over the last month. They’re as much verdict on Swan as much as anything.
Shit set of numbers anyway. But my view is that it only shows the govt needs to push on with reforms.To my mind the basics are achieved: the Tories will be out of power for 6 years minimum, there’s about 0% chance of the minority govt falling since Abbott has alienated every last indie beyond repair, the ALP-GRN senate will be ensconsed shortly, meaning Abbott wont be able to do much, even if elected in 2013 (and thats still a big if) – so theres no point playing some dull conservative manager of national affairs card – it wont play. Its crash through or crash.
o dear me are we having the o GST was a lie debate again. If we are too call Howard a lier than we cannot focus on the GST for their is absolutely nothing wrong with a Governemtn seeking a mandate to change policiees.
Of course if we were to call Howard out on mis-leading then Workchoices is it for in 2004 Howard bascially said that the I.R system was as complete as it would be, then he turned around and unleased the worst written act of parliament that i have ever read.
Gillard hs an up-hill battle to win the next pooll and for this reason the Liberals shoudl, be further advanced in its policy development. I suspect they need two years for that so there is no need for an early election
P.S The Liberals have shown that they are not serious about proper policy and the evidence is of course the Liberals continued support for Job Network and DES.
Yes Liberals until you stop supporting that system you are not ready for Government.
ttfatb
You are probably correct, but can I offer you a few commas?
,,,,,,,,,,,,, 😉
Frank @ 206
And you are far more effective for doing so. Keep up the good work! You are appreciated.
Now that is what happenes when you don’t read your post before summitting
[Firstly. Labor is at rock bottom at around 31-33%. The libs have not grabbed any primary from them even after the feral attacks by Murdoch last week. The only movement seems to be greens to libs. I can only assume that the soft greens have now been flushed out and the greens rock bottom base is 10%. Where is Abbott going to get any further boost from ?]
Excactly.
[Its crash through or crash]
Hear Hear
231
You can`t see the comma`s in there?
You need your eyes tested then.
[william
1 Q
where do you draw the line?]
Gusface, stop being a pain in the arse. Your comments will not be deleted if you behave like a grown-up. It really is as simple as that. Unfortunately, #202 in particular – a comment that would sound painfully familiar to every primary school teacher in the history of the world – strongly suggests that may be beyond you.
[Absent some notable exceptions (News & talkback) we have a diverse media representing a wide range of views. ]
Outside of News and talkback, there are really only two big players – ABC and Fairfax. That’s not exactly diverse.
[Those of your enthusiasts who talk about threats to media outlets, baseball bats etc should be a little more pointed in what they mean, a bit like you should be.]
Oh please spare us the lecture. I think I’m as “pointed” as anyone is around here about where I stand and what I mean. Tell me what of my positions I’ve not made clear. You on the other hand make oblique critiques, and need to be drawn on them.
[You said near uniformity – that must mean there only a few exceptions to your mantra?
If so, how come when I mentioned Fairfax, you pursued the faux outrage line?]
You didn’t mention Fairfax at first. You mentioned one or two commentators there. Then you added to it in a subsequent comment to imply the whole organisation is biased towards Labor. I would dispute that and I doubt you’d be on firm ground defending it.
william
i suspect we have more in common than we either realise
Update on the Revolting People’s Rally:
[gordongrahamgordongraham
Barnaby Joyce puts together a rally of 800 in Rob Oakeshott’s electorate according to the police. Organizers say it was 3000 LOL #auspol
5 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]
Frank,
Has Their ABC covered that one yet?
frank
i posted earlier it was 600
BB maybe able to do hism pixel trick to confirm numbers\
[Cuppa
Posted Monday, May 16, 2011 at 12:15 am | Permalink
Frank,
Has Their ABC covered that one yet?
]
nope,
nothing whatsoever.
Is it because it was too far out bush to send a crew out ?
frank
correction
abc local radio had a link
now gone
Cuppa
Usual duck and weave.
I did mention Fairfax straight up in answer to your near unanimity media bias clanger.
I did not say Fairfax was pro-Labor.
I try and be a honest broker in this debate. Et tu?
Frank, it’s a bit of a puzzle why they wouldn’t cover it. Not even a mention eh? That’s odd! They may be establishing a precedent: remember there are pro-CT rallies scheduled for all capital cities on June 05.
Just a quick point.
Nielsen shows 51% of labor voters support Malaysia deal and also 45% of greens support the deal.
Do people support the greens mainly for environment issues and Bob Brown, SHY and co are failing to recognise their hit from the left AS approach is opposed by nearly half of their base?
Frank, I have a WA question.
Can you tell me how far, very roughly, it might be in kms between Fremantle and Hamel?
Thank you
[Doyley
Posted Monday, May 16, 2011 at 12:21 am | Permalink
Just a quick point.
Nielsen shows 51% of labor voters support Malaysia deal and also 45% of greens support the deal.
Do people support the greens mainly for environment issues and Bob Brown, SHY and co are failing to recognise their hit from the left AS approach is opposed by nearly half of their base?
]
Interssting point that – Bob Brown has a Fatherly look about him – where as SHY rminds me of a petulant teen stamping her feet when told she cannot go out with a boyfriend.
The problem with people here is that the automatic response to bad Labor polls is to blam the media. It’s never Labor’s fault, it’s Rupert Murdoch’s fault. It’s the same, boring old response all the time. Time to get the record player fixed.