The latest Newspoll has produced the 54-46 two-party preferred result the market has come to expect, but with Julia Gillard taking a hammering on her personal ratings: approval down four to 34 per cent, disapproval up six to 55 per cent. However, Tony Abbott is down too, contrary to other polls from recent weeks: his approval is down four points to 38 per cent and disapproval up three to 51 per cent. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is down to just four points: her own rating is down three points to 42 per cent, with and Abbott up two to 38 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 33 per cent with the Coalition up two to 46 per cent and the Greens down two to 10 per cent.
The poll also finds that the tough-medicine angle on the budget is the one that has gained currency: 37 per cent believe it will be good for the economy against 32 per cent bad, but fully 41 per cent believe it will make them worse off personally against only 11 per cent who think it will make them better off. As it is with so many things these days, opinion as to whether the Coalition would have delivered a better budget is evenly split: 38 per cent say yes, 41 per cent say no. However, the latter number would include those who believe they would have done no better or worse, so this would have to be rated a positive set of numbers for the Coalition. Figures as always courtesy of GhostWhoVotes on Twitter. UPDATE: And now full tables.
UPDATE: The montly Nielsen poll is even worse for the government, though not actually worse than in the previous Nielsen poll a month ago: the results are steady for two-party preferred (56-44) and both major parties’ primary votes, with the Coalition leading Labor 47 per cent to 31 per cent. As in Newspoll, the Greens have dropped two to 10 per cent. Personal ratings are bewilderingly different from Newspoll’s: Julia Gillard is down two on approval and up two on disapproval, but her totals of 43 per cent and 52 per cent. The poll provides further evidence that Tony Abbott’s position has improved over the past month, his approval up three to 45 per cent and disapproval down one to 50 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-42 to 47-44. The budget was rated “fair” by 42 per cent and not fair by 39 per cent. There were also questions on the deal with Malaysia on asylum seekers, the results of which are summarised thus by Michelle Grattan of The Age:
Just over a third (35 per cent) support the Malaysian deal, including a bare majority (51 per cent) of Labor voters. Less than a quarter of Coalition voters (23 per cent) support it, and 45 per cent of Green voters. More than seven in 10 Coalition voters and nearly four in 10 Labor voters are against it. Asked about the policy’s effectiveness, 23 per cent predicted it would increase arrivals by boat, while only 16 per cent said it would reduce them. Of those who support the measure, 57 per cent think it will make no difference and 12 per cent believe it will increase arrivals – just 28 per cent think it will reduce them. Among those opposed, 60 per cent say it will make no difference, 30 per cent believe it will increase arrivals and a mere 8 per cent think it will reduce them. The Malaysia solution has the most support in Western Australia.
We also had on Saturday a Galaxy poll which found the budget to be deemed good by 28 per cent and bad by 39 per cent, comparing with respective figures of 43 per cent and 28 per cent last year. Only 11 per cent of respondents deemed Labor “sound managers” of the economy, down six points on last year, with “poor managers” up eight points to 33 per cent. In a gobsmacking repudiation of reality, fully 47 per cent of respondents were ready to nominate a family income of $150,000 as “about average” – as of 2007-08, the planet Earth figure for median household income was $66,820. Only 44 per cent acknowledged such an income as “very rich” or “quite rich”. It was also found 51 per cent were opposed to the government’s plan to provide free digital set-top boxes for pensioners, with 45 per cent supportive. Full results from GhostWhoVotes.
Notable local happenings:
• Jon Stanhope has resigned as Chief Minister of the Australian Capital Territory after 10 years in the job, and will formally quit parliament next week. His deputy, Katy Gallagher, was chosen by caucus to succeed Stanhope without opposition. Stanhope’s vacancy in the Legislative Assembly will be filled by a re-count of the votes that elected him to his Ginninderra electorate seat at the 2008 election. In practice this means it will go to whichever of the unsuccessful Labor candidates from the election chooses to nominate. These included Adina Cirson, a staffer to Gallagher who polled 5.0 per cent of the ttoal vote at the election; David Peebles, who holds a senior position at the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and polled 4.9 per cent; and Chris Bourke, a dentist of Aboriginal background. Noel Towell of the Canberra Times reports that Peebles “has been offered and accepted a job as Australia’s Deputy High Commissioner to the Solomon Islands and is thought to be unlikely to accept an Assembly seat”, which would appear to make the position available for Cirson should she choose to accept it.
• Four months after resigning as Tasmanian Premier, David Bartlett has announced his resignation from parliament. This will activate a recount similar to the one outlined above. The three unsuccessful candidates from Bartlett’s division of Denison included two incumbents – Lisa Singh, who had been a minister, and the accident-prone Graeme Sturges – both of whom lost out to Labor newcomer Scott Bacon. The other candidate on the ticket was Madeleine Ogilvie, a barrister. Singh has since been elected to the Senate, where she will assume her seat on July 1, and is hence not a starter. Ogilvie has confirmed she will seek the position, while Sturges has been reported saying he is “considering his options”.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research has turned in a bit of a surprise, with the Coalition lead narrowing from 54-46 to 52-48. This comes from a one point drop on the Coalition primary vote to 46 per cent, a one point rise for Labor to 36 per cent and a one point rise for the Greens to 11 per cent. The poll nonetheless finds a generally negative response to the budget: 29 per cent believe it will be bad for them personally against 11 per cent bad; 25 per cent think bad for business against 20 per cent good; and 29 per cent say bad for the economy overall against 27 per cent good. Despite that, a question on whether the economy is headed in the right or wrong direction produces near identical results to last year’s post-budget poll, with 46 per cent saying it is and 29 per cent saying it isn’t. On the question of which party “would be best at handling the Australian economy in the interests of you and people like you”, 40 per cent say Liberal and 30 per cent say Labor.
There ia also a question on asylum seekers which to my mind mostly demonstrates how much trouble pollsters can get into when their questions seek to explain things to respondents. The question in this case being: “Do you support or oppose the Government’s plan to send asylum seekers arriving by boat in Australia to PNG and Malaysia if it means it will cost taxpayers substantially more than it would if we just processed asylum seekers on the mainland in Australia.” And since they put it like that: 60 per cent say oppose, 24 per cent say support. Which sounds like good news of a kind for supporters of a liberal stand on the issue, but only because tougher approaches were left off the menu.
UPDATE 3 (17/5/11): JWS Research has polled 2141 people in the 10 most marginal Labor and Coalition seats, finding an aggregate 58-42 result in the Coalition’s favour on voting intention. Fully 50 per cent of respondents rated the Howard government the best of Australia’s last five – though it should be noted here that “government” was defined in terms of who the prime minister was, so that the Labor vote was split four ways. Very similar personal ratings were recorded for Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott – 33 per cent approval and 44 per cent disapproval for the former, against 33 per cent and 46 per cent for the latter. Findings on the budget were broadly in line with other recent polling, with a slight majority deeming it good for the economy and a larger one deeming it bad for them personally.
william – You forgot to mention the retirement of Tom Stephens.
William,
First paragraph, second-last sentence: missing margin of error figure.
william
are you going to update with the neilsen or run a separate thread/
From an ALP perspective, I’m happy with this poll.
There is room to tell an economic story as people’s expectations are low and people aren’t optimistic about the Coalition delivering a better budget.
The PPM stuff isn’t good, but Abbott isn’t ahead yet and his personal rating has dropped.
I think the goal of the government for now should be to get to July 1st intact. Then get the carbon tax sorted out, then get to the end of the year.
if there is a by election it will make things interesting.. if libs gain a seat =green indeps and Labor death
Mr Denmore sums up Newspoll:
[DenmoreMr Denmore
So News Ltd forms a narrative that the #budget was bad based on a poll it created based on its own skewed coverage? Murdochcracy in action?
8 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]
So we have had the sound and fury and the worse we got was labor 4% below water. That won’t stop the NBN. Murdock will be very unhappy.
About what I expected!
If Labor had any guts it would call an election like Howard did in 98
[4
spur212
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:19 pm | Permalink
From an ALP perspective, I’m happy with this poll.
There is room to tell an economic story as people’s expectations are low and people aren’t optimistic about the Coalition delivering a better budget.
The PPM stuff isn’t good, but Abbott isn’t ahead yet and his personal rating has dropped.
I think the goal of the government for now should be to get to July 1st intact. Then get the carbon tax sorted out, then get to the end of the year.
]
toitally agree – Post Budget polls always affect the PPM figures.
The reason I say they need to get to July 1st is because Abbott’s political situation gets tricky. If he won government on the floor, he’d have to deal with The Greens.
On top of that, the guy who put him in power, Nick Minchin will be gone and probably replaced by the more extreme Cory Bernardi. So there will be an internal situation going on in the Coalition for the government to exploit.
[biasdetector
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:20 pm | Permalink
if there is a by election it will make things interesting.. if libs gain a seat =green indeps and Labor death]
And if Labor gains a seat the government is more secure. Stating the dam obvious we are.
[9
biasdetector
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:21 pm | Permalink
If Labor had any guts it would call an election like Howard did in 98
]
which he technically lost 🙂
with margin of error it could actually be a lot worse
the trend is getting stronger
I also think polls tend to favour Labor slightly
Gillard is looking terminal
Who were those commentators predicting there would be a royal wedding bounce for the PM? Doesn’t that seem like a long time ago now? 😆
spur
ssshhhh about the senate
its the ace in the deck
[PhillipCoorey Phillip Coorey
Sobering poll In tomorrow’s SMH. Going to be an interesting next two years.
11 minutes ago]
better put the vino away
[Frank Calabrese
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:22 pm | Permalink
9
biasdetector
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:21 pm | Permalink
If Labor had any guts it would call an election like Howard did in 98
which he technically lost ]
and it showed his guts and set him up for later elections
also based on that judgement Gillard technically lost the last election indeps only sided with her because they were scared Abbott would take them to a polll with NSW
[confessions
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:23 pm | Permalink
Who were those commentators predicting there would be a royal wedding bounce for the PM? Doesn’t that seem like a long time ago now? ]
this is the bounce lol
[There will be no carbon tax under a government I lead]
Hey biasdetector, when was the last hung parliament?
Is Julia meant to be have a crystal ball?
Of course she was referring to leading a government in her own right.
Should Julia not proceed to price carbon with of a minority government. Of course! She said she intended to price carbon as a policy.
You see, can your mob win on any issue without getting into the gutter? I will answer that. NO!
[spur
ssshhhh about the senate
its the ace in the deck]
PJK summed up the Senate well. The 2 aces in the deck are Bowen and Combet – one has shown his hand and the other isn’t far off – excellent poker players IMHO
[18
biasdetector
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:24 pm | Permalink
Frank Calabrese
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:22 pm | Permalink
9
biasdetector
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:21 pm | Permalink
If Labor had any guts it would call an election like Howard did in 98
which he technically lost
and it showed his guts and set him up for later elections
also based on that judgement Gillard technically lost the last election indeps only sided with her because they were scared Abbott would take them to a polll with NSW
]
The last leader who did that was Alan Carpenter in 2008..
Julia won’t fall for that trick again.
I love the gloating of drive by conservatives who only appear when therie is a good poll for them 🙂
Pity how they disappear when it reverts to normal 🙂
[ssshhhh about the senate
its the ace in the deck]
Gus:
You keep saying this, but I don’t think things are going to be that much different to what they are now. Just a different set of poseurs in the media spotlight is all.
Dare I say…………bring back a certain Foreign Minister to be PM again? 😉
[biasdetector
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:21 pm | Permalink
If Labor had any guts it would call an election like Howard did in 98] In 1998 the government was into it’s third year. If labor had any sense they would also wait for their third year.
[set him up for later elections]
No, 911 and the Tampa set him up for the next election, and the mining boom + rivers of revenue to use for vote-buying the elections after that.
centre
an apology for your slur agin me would ne appreciated
thats if you are man enough!!
😉
[evan14
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:27 pm | Permalink
Dare I say…………bring back a certain Foreign Minister to be PM again?
]
No 🙂
[ biasdetector
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:21 pm | Permalink
If Labor had any guts it would call an election like Howard did in 98 ]
In 1998 the government was into it’s third year. If labor had any sense they would also wait for their third year.
[
Dare I say…………bring back a certain Foreign Minister to be PM again?
]
Lord Downer! Things aren’t that bad
[Centre
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:25 pm | Permalink
There will be no carbon tax under a government I lead
Hey biasdetector, when was the last hung parliament?
Is Julia meant to be have a crystal ball?
Of course she was referring to leading a government in her own right.
Should Julia not proceed to price carbon with of a minority government. Of course! She said she intended to price carbon as a policy.
You see, can your mob win on any issue without getting into the gutter? I will answer that. NO!]
Labor etal., were calling libs dishonest for saying there would be a carbon tax.
as for minority government she could have said… I have principles.. I don’t lie. it is off the table.
I seems you are saying that Gillard was FORCED into a carbon tax…. WEAK
25: This is Labor’s fourth year?
re 20 should be:
Should Julia proceed to price carbon with a minority government. Of course!
Biasdetector, why don’t you wait until all details are released and consider compensation before criticising the carbon tax?
Compensation? The voters will accept it 😉
evan:
That would be absolutely suicidal and would prove once and for all that NSW disease really had afflicted the federal party.
Rudd’s doing some good stuff in foreign affairs. It’s time he was left to concentrate on his passion.
[ MrDenmore Mr Denmore
So News Ltd forms a narrative that the #budget was bad based on a poll it created based on its own skewed coverage? Murdochcracy in action?
]
[SpaceKidette Space Kidette
Murdochracy: The unrelenting destruction of a government who dared to bring down an empire by introducing the NBN.
]
[The poll also finds that the tough-medicine angle on the budget is the one that has gained currency: 37 per cent believe it will be good for the economy against 32 per cent bad, but fully 41 per cent believe it will make them worse off personally against only 11 per cent who think it will make them better off. ]
That’s the power of media distortion right there. No doubt it was probably all those headlines about how so many Australians would be badly affected by the Budget that helped product that figure. It’d be nice to turn things around soon, but the main thing is the Government getting their policies done. Better bad polls and getting things done well than the reverse.
I think 1st July will create a more aggressive policital message from the Coaltion and those who support it. One, I hasten to add, I do not subscribe to.
“The government is brought to you by the Greens”.
Quite what that means, who knows?
Confessions: I pray that Gillard can hold it together over the next 2 years, because right now, much as we hate to admit it, Abbott and the MSM are winning.
[James J
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:29 pm | Permalink
25: This is Labor’s fourth year?]
You might be trying to forget, but there was an election in 2010.
The previous election before 2009 was 2006
[The last leader who did that was Alan Carpenter in 2008..
Julia won’t fall for that trick again.
I love the gloating of drive by conservatives who only appear when therie is a good poll for them
Pity how they disappear when it reverts to normal ]
Unlike the many in this forum that live off other peoples taxes…. I have a busy live WORKING and paying tax.
I can’t always blog non stop like you Frank
It is also why we get annoyed when so much money is wasted because it is from our sweat that it comes. 50B deficit and all government talks about is a tough budget and surplus as if they know what one looks like
When was the last time Labor had a surplus I can’t remember despite all the promises
Gillard is not weak.
Don’t you understand parliamentary processes?
Don’t you understand negotiation?
Hey, haven’t you considered that maybe there is a minority government because the Greens proposed a carbon tax?
More spin from yourself and your MOB in the gutter!
[fredn
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:32 pm | Permalink
James J
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:29 pm | Permalink
25: This is Labor’s fourth year?
You might be trying to forget, but there was an election in 2010.
The previous election before 2009 was 2006
]
No,
Try 2007 and before that 2004 🙂
St Gus, what slur?
Go and cry to mummy 😆
[Centre
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:29 pm | Permalink
re 20 should be:
Should Julia proceed to price carbon with a minority government. Of course!
Biasdetector, why don’t you wait until all details are released and consider compensation before criticising the carbon tax?
Compensation? The voters will accept it ]
you can’t compensate for loss of job.
Chinese aren’t going to compensate as are they?
[SpaceKidette Space Kidette
Murdochracy: The unrelenting destruction of a government who dared to bring down an empire by introducing the NBN. ]
The unrelenting attempted destruction of a government who dared to bring down an empire by introducing the NBN.
It hasn’t happened yet.
[much as we hate to admit it, Abbott and the MSM are winning]
He wouldn’t even be in contention were it not for the media.
Save your breath Centre. Those people only understand spin and deceit.
[I think 1st July will create a more aggressive policital message from the Coaltion and those who support it.]
Yes, this is my view too. I don’t share fellow Bludgers’ optimism that the magical incoming Senate will transform our political and media landscape. Far from it. Based on what we’ve seen from Liberals of late tells me they will get even more shouty and more cunning.
[Centre
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:33 pm | Permalink
Gillard is not weak.
Don’t you understand parliamentary processes?
Don’t you understand negotiation?
Hey, haven’t you considered that maybe there is a minority government because the Greens proposed a carbon tax?
More spin from yourself and your MOB in the gutter!]
you can’t say that Gillard is strong and does not lie.
If you promise something the day before the election and the model it a month later you at betraying democracy in the worst way
Next election no one will be able to believe a word… see what happened to NSW Labor
I think the most worrisome thing about Labor’s polls this past 11 months is the unrelenting negative message they are giving. Almost nothing the government does gives them any breathers or cause for optimism, no bounces to speak of, just a continual Labor dirge. THE only positive they can hang their hat on is that Abbott is not particularly popular. But then that could also be taken as a dire warning in that a slightly more palatable LOTO would let the dogs lose on Labor poll wise.