The latest Newspoll has produced the 54-46 two-party preferred result the market has come to expect, but with Julia Gillard taking a hammering on her personal ratings: approval down four to 34 per cent, disapproval up six to 55 per cent. However, Tony Abbott is down too, contrary to other polls from recent weeks: his approval is down four points to 38 per cent and disapproval up three to 51 per cent. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is down to just four points: her own rating is down three points to 42 per cent, with and Abbott up two to 38 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 33 per cent with the Coalition up two to 46 per cent and the Greens down two to 10 per cent.
The poll also finds that the tough-medicine angle on the budget is the one that has gained currency: 37 per cent believe it will be good for the economy against 32 per cent bad, but fully 41 per cent believe it will make them worse off personally against only 11 per cent who think it will make them better off. As it is with so many things these days, opinion as to whether the Coalition would have delivered a better budget is evenly split: 38 per cent say yes, 41 per cent say no. However, the latter number would include those who believe they would have done no better or worse, so this would have to be rated a positive set of numbers for the Coalition. Figures as always courtesy of GhostWhoVotes on Twitter. UPDATE: And now full tables.
UPDATE: The montly Nielsen poll is even worse for the government, though not actually worse than in the previous Nielsen poll a month ago: the results are steady for two-party preferred (56-44) and both major parties’ primary votes, with the Coalition leading Labor 47 per cent to 31 per cent. As in Newspoll, the Greens have dropped two to 10 per cent. Personal ratings are bewilderingly different from Newspoll’s: Julia Gillard is down two on approval and up two on disapproval, but her totals of 43 per cent and 52 per cent. The poll provides further evidence that Tony Abbott’s position has improved over the past month, his approval up three to 45 per cent and disapproval down one to 50 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-42 to 47-44. The budget was rated “fair” by 42 per cent and not fair by 39 per cent. There were also questions on the deal with Malaysia on asylum seekers, the results of which are summarised thus by Michelle Grattan of The Age:
Just over a third (35 per cent) support the Malaysian deal, including a bare majority (51 per cent) of Labor voters. Less than a quarter of Coalition voters (23 per cent) support it, and 45 per cent of Green voters. More than seven in 10 Coalition voters and nearly four in 10 Labor voters are against it. Asked about the policy’s effectiveness, 23 per cent predicted it would increase arrivals by boat, while only 16 per cent said it would reduce them. Of those who support the measure, 57 per cent think it will make no difference and 12 per cent believe it will increase arrivals – just 28 per cent think it will reduce them. Among those opposed, 60 per cent say it will make no difference, 30 per cent believe it will increase arrivals and a mere 8 per cent think it will reduce them. The Malaysia solution has the most support in Western Australia.
We also had on Saturday a Galaxy poll which found the budget to be deemed good by 28 per cent and bad by 39 per cent, comparing with respective figures of 43 per cent and 28 per cent last year. Only 11 per cent of respondents deemed Labor “sound managers” of the economy, down six points on last year, with “poor managers” up eight points to 33 per cent. In a gobsmacking repudiation of reality, fully 47 per cent of respondents were ready to nominate a family income of $150,000 as “about average” – as of 2007-08, the planet Earth figure for median household income was $66,820. Only 44 per cent acknowledged such an income as “very rich” or “quite rich”. It was also found 51 per cent were opposed to the government’s plan to provide free digital set-top boxes for pensioners, with 45 per cent supportive. Full results from GhostWhoVotes.
Notable local happenings:
• Jon Stanhope has resigned as Chief Minister of the Australian Capital Territory after 10 years in the job, and will formally quit parliament next week. His deputy, Katy Gallagher, was chosen by caucus to succeed Stanhope without opposition. Stanhope’s vacancy in the Legislative Assembly will be filled by a re-count of the votes that elected him to his Ginninderra electorate seat at the 2008 election. In practice this means it will go to whichever of the unsuccessful Labor candidates from the election chooses to nominate. These included Adina Cirson, a staffer to Gallagher who polled 5.0 per cent of the ttoal vote at the election; David Peebles, who holds a senior position at the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and polled 4.9 per cent; and Chris Bourke, a dentist of Aboriginal background. Noel Towell of the Canberra Times reports that Peebles “has been offered and accepted a job as Australia’s Deputy High Commissioner to the Solomon Islands and is thought to be unlikely to accept an Assembly seat”, which would appear to make the position available for Cirson should she choose to accept it.
• Four months after resigning as Tasmanian Premier, David Bartlett has announced his resignation from parliament. This will activate a recount similar to the one outlined above. The three unsuccessful candidates from Bartlett’s division of Denison included two incumbents – Lisa Singh, who had been a minister, and the accident-prone Graeme Sturges – both of whom lost out to Labor newcomer Scott Bacon. The other candidate on the ticket was Madeleine Ogilvie, a barrister. Singh has since been elected to the Senate, where she will assume her seat on July 1, and is hence not a starter. Ogilvie has confirmed she will seek the position, while Sturges has been reported saying he is “considering his options”.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research has turned in a bit of a surprise, with the Coalition lead narrowing from 54-46 to 52-48. This comes from a one point drop on the Coalition primary vote to 46 per cent, a one point rise for Labor to 36 per cent and a one point rise for the Greens to 11 per cent. The poll nonetheless finds a generally negative response to the budget: 29 per cent believe it will be bad for them personally against 11 per cent bad; 25 per cent think bad for business against 20 per cent good; and 29 per cent say bad for the economy overall against 27 per cent good. Despite that, a question on whether the economy is headed in the right or wrong direction produces near identical results to last year’s post-budget poll, with 46 per cent saying it is and 29 per cent saying it isn’t. On the question of which party “would be best at handling the Australian economy in the interests of you and people like you”, 40 per cent say Liberal and 30 per cent say Labor.
There ia also a question on asylum seekers which to my mind mostly demonstrates how much trouble pollsters can get into when their questions seek to explain things to respondents. The question in this case being: “Do you support or oppose the Government’s plan to send asylum seekers arriving by boat in Australia to PNG and Malaysia if it means it will cost taxpayers substantially more than it would if we just processed asylum seekers on the mainland in Australia.” And since they put it like that: 60 per cent say oppose, 24 per cent say support. Which sounds like good news of a kind for supporters of a liberal stand on the issue, but only because tougher approaches were left off the menu.
UPDATE 3 (17/5/11): JWS Research has polled 2141 people in the 10 most marginal Labor and Coalition seats, finding an aggregate 58-42 result in the Coalition’s favour on voting intention. Fully 50 per cent of respondents rated the Howard government the best of Australia’s last five – though it should be noted here that “government” was defined in terms of who the prime minister was, so that the Labor vote was split four ways. Very similar personal ratings were recorded for Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott – 33 per cent approval and 44 per cent disapproval for the former, against 33 per cent and 46 per cent for the latter. Findings on the budget were broadly in line with other recent polling, with a slight majority deeming it good for the economy and a larger one deeming it bad for them personally.
biasdetector
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:34 pm | Permalink
Centre
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:29 pm | Permalink
re 20 should be:
[ Should Julia proceed to price carbon with a minority government. Of course!
…..
you can’t compensate for loss of job.
Chinese aren’t going to compensate as are they?]
The price on carbon is minor irrelevant issue when it comes to jobs. It will be the strong dollar that will destroy manufacturing in this country and the raw material needed by the Chinese economy that will support employment.
The new Senate will just drive the whole greens are really in charge meme into overdrive.
[I pray that Gillard can hold it together over the next 2 years, because right now, much as we hate to admit it, Abbott and the MSM are winning.]
evan:
The solution is not a leadership change.
[Cuppa
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:35 pm | Permalink
much as we hate to admit it, Abbott and the MSM are winning
He wouldn’t even be in contention were it not for the media.]
MSM really have not taken Gillard to task as much as they should have
Labor are in this position purely because of THEMSELVES
new flood tax, carbon tax (and lie is LIE) mining tax and 50 billion in deficit… terrible
Um biasdetector HELLO
Have you heard of a women called Gail Kelly? Well, she kind of controls one of the best financial institutions in the world, and she supports a carbon tax. WHY/
Because it will attract business investment!
So what does that mean?
JOBS!
Where is Neilsen? Or is that tomorrow night?
[54
biasdetector
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:39 pm | Permalink
Cuppa
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:35 pm | Permalink
much as we hate to admit it, Abbott and the MSM are winning
He wouldn’t even be in contention were it not for the media.
MSM really have not taken Gillard to task as much as they should have
Labor are in this position purely because of THEMSELVES
new flood tax, carbon tax (and lie is LIE) mining tax and 50 billion in deficit… terrible
]
There Will Never Be a GST.
John Winston Howard 🙂
Fredn,
I keep saying it. This govt is doing a GREAT job in a Post GFC, Hung Parliament environment. I do not doubt their ability to govern this country for a second and I am sure the Indies think the same.
BUT the ALP will not win the next election unless the Abbott’s messages are effectively shutdown.
This mean is getting some world class speech writers and starting to threaten a few of the media outlets with the revocation of their licences and revisit media ownership laws.
THis is not frightening me from the ALP perspective. I pretty much live by the policy that you live and die by your performance and if the ALP fails the communication test than so be it.
What REALLY frightens me is the disintegration of democracy. What we have is media outcomes driven by extraordinarily rich media barons with far too much media control.
centre
last time i include you in an adult discussion
🙁
[MSM really have not taken Gillard to task as much as they should have]
Turn on talkback radio. That’s all they DO. That and spruik for the fruitcake Rabbott.
bias: crap
fess
for the last time
44-56
the ppm etc will be up tomorrow
HANN
[Cuppa
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:41 pm | Permalink
MSM really have not taken Gillard to task as much as they should have
Turn on talkback radio. That’s all they DO. That and spruik for the fruitcake Rabbott.
]
and Breakfast Television as well.
Of course what’s missing from this whole blog is a serious attempt to understand how voters really work and what really drives their decisions. That’s what I’d love to see. Needless to say I don’t think a good working theory of voters would be particularly flattering to the human species.
I believe Nielsen has the 2PP as ALP 43 (-1) L/NP 57 (+1) and the primaries ALP 31 (0) L/NP 47 (0) Greens 10 (-2), but that is not confirmed.
Gus:
Oops 😳 ! Sorry, missed that.
What is HANN?
Centre,
For all their crocodile tears, they’re not interested in people keeping jobs. That’s why they seek to abolish job security by legislating away unfair dismissal protection. Their fundamental agenda is SerfChoices (by whatever name) – removing job security and driving down wages and conditions.
Have
A
Nice
Night
🙂
GWV:
Yikes!
“threaten a few of the media outlets with the revocation of their licences and revisit media ownership laws.”
And YOU are frightened of the disintegration of democracy??
[cud chewer
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:43 pm | Permalink
Of course what’s missing from this whole blog is a serious attempt to understand how voters really work and what really drives their decisions. That’s what I’d love to see. Needless to say I don’t think a good working theory of voters would be particularly flattering to the human species.
]
There was no money put into their pockets via Tax Cuts etc.
Voters think with their Wallets.
Howard Bought his way to Victory and the Kath & Kims are not liking being ignored.
Of course Abbott will go harder on the Greens control the ALP line, but keep in mind that if he wants to put policy in place in government he has to deal with them in the senate.
I’m not sure it’s a political situation he’d like to be in.
On top of that, there is a stronger likelihood that the government will hold on until 2013 with the change in the senate
there there Gus
😆
Hello, Evan, there will be NO Labor leadership change, completely unnecessary!
Better to avoid most of the MSM tomorrow, especially talkback radio – Jones & Hadley & Mitchell & Chris Smith will be gloating.
GWV
i think the prob is rounding
Good night all,
My parting comment. You can’t keep doing the same thing and expect a different result. Something fundamental has to change for the result to change.
Frank, there may be some truth in that but its far from a complete theory.
[GhostWhoVotes
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:43 pm | Permalink
I believe Nielsen has the 2PP as ALP 43 (-1) L/NP 57 (+1) and the primaries ALP 31 (0) L/NP 47 (0) Greens 10 (-2), but that is not confirmed.
]
and a second example of a falling Green Vote.
As I said the small L libs who flocked to the Greens re Refugees etc are holding their noses by returing to the Lib fold cos of the removal of welfare for those on $150,000.
Namely spouses of the professions.
Sometimes the power of the Senate appears a little overplayed but nevertheless 1 July does throw up all sort of possibilities.
How assertive will the Greens be in their dealings with the Government?
What will Lee Rhiannon be like? If she proffers some of the more radical ideas with which she is associated how will the Government marry hostility to her with getting legislation through.
Tony Abbott has thrived in an environment where he has little to offer and not much to do other than point a finger across the Chamber – the Coalition’s marginalisation post 1 July might feed into that hitherto successful course by enabling him to point two fingers, one at the Government and one at the Greens.
Well they did change leaders when they were AHEAD 52-48.
biasdetector. I think it is the last thing the Libs want. I suspect they would love to keep her in the PM job up to the next election. A change of leader changes the whole dynamic, and wipes the past. And really it couldn’t get much worse in anycase. So be careful what you wish for lest it cause chaos on the Libs side.
Space Kidette, I don’t know if there is anything the government can do at this point. What you really should be asking is how soon do the media wake up and start realising how dangerous they’ve become.
Cud,
[Needless to say I don’t think a good working theory of voters would be particularly flattering to the human species.]
What’s that quote about, the best argument against democracy is to spend five minutes with the average voter.
TP, do you actually, ever, stand for anything constructive?
Ask the US embassy, I am pretty sure they were briefed a full 12 months before hand of the intended change in leaders.
Thanks Gus.
Enjoy your evening too!
centre
put it this way, you are in my shit file
I did make the suggestion a few times of how Gillard might improve her polling. That has yet to happen and I suspect it wont.
Evan,
[Better to avoid most of the MSM tomorrow, especially talkback radio – Jones & Hadley & Mitchell & Chris Smith will be gloating.]
Best to avoid the MSM all the time – and their advertisers.
Cuppa, the real question is it actually even logically possible to have a government that acts in the long term interests of the country and can maintain support from people who are too selfish or too shallow to really understand what the government is doing
And I think the answer is not without responsible media.
My feeling is that changing leaders again would be suicidal, much as I wish Rudd was still PM, because I honestly think that he’s a better salesman and communicator than Gillard.
But, as Confessions pointed out earlier, Kevin is proving to be a very effective Foreign Minister, so let’s leave him there.
It’s up to Julia and Swan and Bowen and a few others to get Labor out of this mess.
Neilsen 44-56
#Nielsen Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 44 (0) L/NP 56 (0) #auspol
#Nielsen Poll Primary Votes: ALP 31 (0) L/NP 47 (0) GRN 10 (-2) #auspol
It’s not a bad poll anyway!
Still who cares over 2 years from an election!
In Aug 2013 you will have:
Mining tax – a winner
Carbon tax compensation – a winner
Flood levy – forgotten but winner
NBN – well on track
Budget – SURPLUS
Labor have a great chance of winning again. WHY?
Because they have policies.
fess
no shit sherlock
:evil;
Flashback to the Budget of 2007 when a certain JWH was PM 🙂
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/newspoll-tuesday%e2%80%a6-again/
Thank you Mr Possum.
ooops
fess
NO SHIT SHERLOCK
👿
#Nielsen Poll Preferred PM: Gillard 47 (-3) Abbott 44 (+2)
No 57
Oh dear Frank. The ‘never ever’ GST meme doesn’t wash when you acknowledge the fact that Howard fought and won an election on the issue in 1998.
TP, ok so I missed it. You had a constructive suggestion as to how Julia can improve her polling..
Without resorting to Howard style populism? Without resorting to demonising some group of people, lining them up and shootting them? Without resigning?
Go ahead, in a few simple lines, tell me.