Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen: 56-44

The latest Newspoll has produced the 54-46 two-party preferred result the market has come to expect, but with Julia Gillard taking a hammering on her personal ratings: approval down four to 34 per cent, disapproval up six to 55 per cent. However, Tony Abbott is down too, contrary to other polls from recent weeks: his approval is down four points to 38 per cent and disapproval up three to 51 per cent. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is down to just four points: her own rating is down three points to 42 per cent, with and Abbott up two to 38 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 33 per cent with the Coalition up two to 46 per cent and the Greens down two to 10 per cent.

The poll also finds that the tough-medicine angle on the budget is the one that has gained currency: 37 per cent believe it will be good for the economy against 32 per cent bad, but fully 41 per cent believe it will make them worse off personally against only 11 per cent who think it will make them better off. As it is with so many things these days, opinion as to whether the Coalition would have delivered a better budget is evenly split: 38 per cent say yes, 41 per cent say no. However, the latter number would include those who believe they would have done no better or worse, so this would have to be rated a positive set of numbers for the Coalition. Figures as always courtesy of GhostWhoVotes on Twitter. UPDATE: And now full tables.

UPDATE: The montly Nielsen poll is even worse for the government, though not actually worse than in the previous Nielsen poll a month ago: the results are steady for two-party preferred (56-44) and both major parties’ primary votes, with the Coalition leading Labor 47 per cent to 31 per cent. As in Newspoll, the Greens have dropped two to 10 per cent. Personal ratings are bewilderingly different from Newspoll’s: Julia Gillard is down two on approval and up two on disapproval, but her totals of 43 per cent and 52 per cent. The poll provides further evidence that Tony Abbott’s position has improved over the past month, his approval up three to 45 per cent and disapproval down one to 50 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-42 to 47-44. The budget was rated “fair” by 42 per cent and not fair by 39 per cent. There were also questions on the deal with Malaysia on asylum seekers, the results of which are summarised thus by Michelle Grattan of The Age:

Just over a third (35 per cent) support the Malaysian deal, including a bare majority (51 per cent) of Labor voters. Less than a quarter of Coalition voters (23 per cent) support it, and 45 per cent of Green voters. More than seven in 10 Coalition voters and nearly four in 10 Labor voters are against it. Asked about the policy’s effectiveness, 23 per cent predicted it would increase arrivals by boat, while only 16 per cent said it would reduce them. Of those who support the measure, 57 per cent think it will make no difference and 12 per cent believe it will increase arrivals – just 28 per cent think it will reduce them. Among those opposed, 60 per cent say it will make no difference, 30 per cent believe it will increase arrivals and a mere 8 per cent think it will reduce them. The Malaysia solution has the most support in Western Australia.

We also had on Saturday a Galaxy poll which found the budget to be deemed good by 28 per cent and bad by 39 per cent, comparing with respective figures of 43 per cent and 28 per cent last year. Only 11 per cent of respondents deemed Labor “sound managers” of the economy, down six points on last year, with “poor managers” up eight points to 33 per cent. In a gobsmacking repudiation of reality, fully 47 per cent of respondents were ready to nominate a family income of $150,000 as “about average” – as of 2007-08, the planet Earth figure for median household income was $66,820. Only 44 per cent acknowledged such an income as “very rich” or “quite rich”. It was also found 51 per cent were opposed to the government’s plan to provide free digital set-top boxes for pensioners, with 45 per cent supportive. Full results from GhostWhoVotes.

Notable local happenings:

• Jon Stanhope has resigned as Chief Minister of the Australian Capital Territory after 10 years in the job, and will formally quit parliament next week. His deputy, Katy Gallagher, was chosen by caucus to succeed Stanhope without opposition. Stanhope’s vacancy in the Legislative Assembly will be filled by a re-count of the votes that elected him to his Ginninderra electorate seat at the 2008 election. In practice this means it will go to whichever of the unsuccessful Labor candidates from the election chooses to nominate. These included Adina Cirson, a staffer to Gallagher who polled 5.0 per cent of the ttoal vote at the election; David Peebles, who holds a senior position at the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and polled 4.9 per cent; and Chris Bourke, a dentist of Aboriginal background. Noel Towell of the Canberra Times reports that Peebles “has been offered and accepted a job as Australia’s Deputy High Commissioner to the Solomon Islands and is thought to be unlikely to accept an Assembly seat”, which would appear to make the position available for Cirson should she choose to accept it.

• Four months after resigning as Tasmanian Premier, David Bartlett has announced his resignation from parliament. This will activate a recount similar to the one outlined above. The three unsuccessful candidates from Bartlett’s division of Denison included two incumbents – Lisa Singh, who had been a minister, and the accident-prone Graeme Sturges – both of whom lost out to Labor newcomer Scott Bacon. The other candidate on the ticket was Madeleine Ogilvie, a barrister. Singh has since been elected to the Senate, where she will assume her seat on July 1, and is hence not a starter. Ogilvie has confirmed she will seek the position, while Sturges has been reported saying he is “considering his options”.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research has turned in a bit of a surprise, with the Coalition lead narrowing from 54-46 to 52-48. This comes from a one point drop on the Coalition primary vote to 46 per cent, a one point rise for Labor to 36 per cent and a one point rise for the Greens to 11 per cent. The poll nonetheless finds a generally negative response to the budget: 29 per cent believe it will be bad for them personally against 11 per cent bad; 25 per cent think bad for business against 20 per cent good; and 29 per cent say bad for the economy overall against 27 per cent good. Despite that, a question on whether the economy is headed in the right or wrong direction produces near identical results to last year’s post-budget poll, with 46 per cent saying it is and 29 per cent saying it isn’t. On the question of which party “would be best at handling the Australian economy in the interests of you and people like you”, 40 per cent say Liberal and 30 per cent say Labor.

There ia also a question on asylum seekers which to my mind mostly demonstrates how much trouble pollsters can get into when their questions seek to explain things to respondents. The question in this case being: “Do you support or oppose the Government’s plan to send asylum seekers arriving by boat in Australia to PNG and Malaysia if it means it will cost taxpayers substantially more than it would if we just processed asylum seekers on the mainland in Australia.” And since they put it like that: 60 per cent say oppose, 24 per cent say support. Which sounds like good news of a kind for supporters of a liberal stand on the issue, but only because tougher approaches were left off the menu.

UPDATE 3 (17/5/11): JWS Research has polled 2141 people in the 10 most marginal Labor and Coalition seats, finding an aggregate 58-42 result in the Coalition’s favour on voting intention. Fully 50 per cent of respondents rated the Howard government the best of Australia’s last five – though it should be noted here that “government” was defined in terms of who the prime minister was, so that the Labor vote was split four ways. Very similar personal ratings were recorded for Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott – 33 per cent approval and 44 per cent disapproval for the former, against 33 per cent and 46 per cent for the latter. Findings on the budget were broadly in line with other recent polling, with a slight majority deeming it good for the economy and a larger one deeming it bad for them personally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,711 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen: 56-44”

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  1. Put it this way………Kevin Rudd was removed from the top job with polls better than what we’re seeing now.
    Now perhaps it’s all academic, and if he was PM today, the MSM would be going after him as relentlessly as they’re currently targeting Julia.
    I guess we’ll never know if Rudd could have won the 2010 election, or done better than a minority government position.

  2. It seems The Greens are taking most of the brunt but their votes aren’t returning to the ALP. I assume this is the disillusioned with politics voter who votes Green as an alternative party rather than because they believe in any of their policies

  3. [99

    Generic Person

    Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    No 57

    Oh dear Frank. The ‘never ever’ GST meme doesn’t wash when you acknowledge the fact that Howard fought and won an election on the issue in 1998.
    ]

    And that is no different to a price on Carbon ?

    Geez The Fibs have a different meaning to broken promises 🙂

  4. I don’t expect Rudd to be PM again or would he challenge for the position. I believe he has other long term goals now. Labor would have to be doing extraordinary badly for them to go cap in hand to Rudd to save them. And by that I mean Labor would have to be 40/60 6 months out.

  5. No 102

    The difference with Rudd is that he had authority, unlike Gillard who lacks any authority or credibility. She still looks like an acting PM, even after 11 months in the job.

  6. [spur212

    Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    It seems The Greens are taking most of the brunt but their votes aren’t returning to the ALP. I assume this is the disillusioned with politics voter who votes Green as an alternative party rather than because they believe in any of their policies
    ]

    Or it is those on $150,000 + and small l libs who left cos of Howard and are returning to the fold.

  7. Thomas Paine: I’ve got the ultimate respect for Rudd, he’s a class act, I think only he could save this government, but we know too well that the Labor Caucus would rather lose most of their members than have him back as leader.
    Hence I’ve got to support Gillard and Swan, only because the alternative is so much worse.

  8. [Centre

    Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    GP, how about the deceit of Work Choices?

    Not a word before the election.
    ]

    thanks for reminding me of that.

    The Word which dare oint speak it’s name in Menzies House 🙂

  9. It’s not a great reason to vote for a party, because one leadership team is slightly less odious than the other.
    LOL

  10. Cud,

    Whichever way you cut it and hold it up to the light, the central problem is always the media. In a sane society they would educate the people, giving them the benefit of being able to make informed, rational choices. However when the media (in partnership with a far right wing party) set on a course of dumbing down the population, people vote against their own best interests and behave in other ways irrationally. What burns me most, I guess, is the ABC. It’s let down the public it is meant to serve in many ways. I’d like to think things are looking up on that score, but I’m not optimistic yet.

  11. No 110

    Saying nothing about it is different to saying, in no uncertain terms, “we will not have a carbon tax under a government I lead” and then, promptly after gaining power, announce that we WILL have a carbon tax.

  12. Let’s be frank…………..pardon the pun…………Swan was woeful last week, culminating in breaking the glass of water in the radio interview.
    If I was Gillard, I’d be making Wong Treasurer, and putting Andrew Leigh into a parliamentary secretary economic role.

  13. Well, I couldn’t sleep so came back for a peek…

    Goodness, what a lot of panic over nothing.

    biasdetector please report back to home base: Out alive, think they thought I was crazy but may have had some effect…

    PB We knew that the post budget polls were going to be down.

    But the turn of the tide has been noted FROM TODAY. This would have no impact on these polls.

    Settle.

  14. [Generic Person

    Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

    No 110

    Saying nothing about it is different to saying, in no uncertain terms, “we will not have a carbon tax under a government I lead” and then, promptly after gaining power, announce that we WILL have a carbon tax.
    ]

    See Howard and Never Ever re a GST 🙂 And that’s despite going to an election with it.

  15. No 58

    15th May, 2011 – the day the left vacated the field of democracy and entered the field of totalitarianism:

    [This mean is getting some world class speech writers and starting to threaten a few of the media outlets with the revocation of their licences and revisit media ownership laws.]

    Space Kidette.

  16. [But the turn of the tide has been noted FROM TODAY. This would have no impact on these polls.]

    gwen

    both polls reinforce the baseline of 46-54

    a tad worrying when added to the PPM

  17. “The Wedding”…may help lift Julia stocks!!
    ______________
    Perhaps this is the solution !…and I heard a rumour that there will be some page boys….perhaps Frank and GG in fancy costumes…and Penny Wong ,a picture in old Spanish Lace as Bridesmaid….with Mark Arbib as Best Man(dressed as Uncle Sam!)

    What’s not to like !!
    who would’nt love it all !

  18. GP and biasdetector want a Labor leadership change!

    Julia must have them worried 😎

    Let me give you guys a tip, the only leadership change will come from your mob 😉

  19. [Gweneth

    Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    Well, I couldn’t sleep so came back for a peek…

    Goodness, what a lot of panic over nothing.

    biasdetector please report back to home base: Out alive, think they thought I was crazy but may have had some effect…

    PB We knew that the post budget polls were going to be down.

    But the turn of the tide has been noted FROM TODAY. This would have no impact on these polls.

    Settle
    ]

    Agreed, the ALP Primary hasn’t moved at all – it’s all moved from the Greens TO the Coalition.

    It seems that the well off Greens are going back top their natural home in the Libs.

  20. No 126

    Frank, the point is that Howard risked his entire government on the GST issue. The Australian people will not have the same chance in Gillard’s case – she’ll bring it in before the next election (assuming her government survives that long).

  21. I have mentioned a few times that the area where Gillard can improve her standing and that of Labor is on the international stage where it is difficult for the Opposition to compete. But in doing so Gillard needs Rudd with her, as in a team, where she can trade off of the positive view the electorate have of him.

    Basically they need to strut the world stage together on serious issues. Bring Rudd into the fold as he is one of the few positives Labor have at the moment. Gillard is deaf on this type of thing however Howard and Rudd were excellent at using this stage to improve their status and perception of ability.

    Also one of the negatives Gillard has is the baggage of how she came to power, some of the electorate will still feel betrayed and some see her as having legitimacy problems. Bringing Rudd in on a regular basis wipes that memory. Rudd also brings the benefit of getting people to listen which is a problem Gillard is having.

    However people here will think that I am trying to set up a comparison between the two. Too bad. But everything else has failed.

    The problem is that she may have left it too late.

  22. No 130

    I have not said Labor needs a new leader at all, not unti they are on the opposition benches at least.

    Another change now would make us a laughing stock, approaching Japanese-level revolving door leadership.

  23. GP Totalitarianism That is a very big word. What are your thoughts on a monopoly media empire? How would that impact on a market economy?

  24. [{WorkChoices} The Word which dare oint speak it’s name in Menzies House 🙂 ]

    I wouldn’t be surprised if it is discussed very often.

  25. [Generic Person

    Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    No 126

    Frank, the point is that Howard risked his entire government on the GST issue. The Australian people will not have the same chance in Gillard’s case – she’ll bring it in before the next election (assuming her government survives that long).
    ]

    A promise is a promise 🙂

    If it’s ok for Howie to break his – then you can’t cmplain when Labor does it.

  26. GP,

    As usual you are a bent tosser.

    This is a reclaimation of democracy not the crap you are peddling. Take your drive by and piss off.

  27. No 135

    The Rudd/Gillard relationship is irreparable and that is compounded by the fact that Gillard’s foreign policy skills are blithe.

  28. [the day the left vacated the field of democracy and entered the field of totalitarianism:]

    Totalitarianism? Goodness GP, calm down.

  29. Evan, you must have been doing something else on budget night, Swan was excellent.

    No instability in Labor, but there will be in Liberal 😉 big time 🙂

  30. No 142

    You don’t reclaim democracy by shutting down media outlets that are deemed objectionable by the government.

  31. No Gus. I beg to differ. No poll released today will pick up on changes to the media message in the last 24 hours.

    And this poll was predictable from a week away.

  32. [139

    Gusface

    Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    frank

    here is the news….

    the baseline is 46-54

    ppm a mere +3

    no time for ostriches
    ]
    Gus.

    Labor’s Primary is static.

    The movement is all Green – to the Fibs.

    And see my post re Budget 2007.

  33. GP,

    They are bound to report the truth. Not falsify information to fit a narrative pre-determined by a media baron hell bent on a particular outcome.

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