Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research poll finds the parties locked in their post-carbon tax stasis, with the Coalition steady on 47 per cent, Labor steady on 35 per cent, the Greens up one to 10 per cent and two-party preferred steady on 54-46. The survey also includes the monthly approval rating, and finds both recovering from poor showings last time: Julia Gillard up four on approval to 41 per cent and down two on disapproval to 48 per cent, Tony Abbott up six on approval to 42 per cent and down four on disapproval 44 per cent (a trend replicated elsewhere), and Gillard’s preferred prime minister rating has narrowed fractionlly from 42-33 to 43-35. Further questions on the budget find 45 per cent believe the economy to be headed in the right direction – down six on post-2010 budget – and wrong direction up four to 29 per cent. Respondents were also asked about world terrorism and the death of Osama bin Laden, and a further question about our involvement in Afghanistan found opposition continuing to harden: those favouring an increase in troop numbers have dropped from 10 per cent to 5 per cent, those favouring withdrawal are up from 47 per cent to 56 per cent, while support for the existing commitment is steady on 30 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,898 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Costello used to rant and rave about his fantastic econimic management that Australia sustained growth during the Asian crisis!

    What about Australia not falling into the much anticipated and expected recession during the GFC?

    HYPOCRITES!

  2. Abbott wants an erection so he can make an honest women, oops PM out of Julia!

    Well I suggest he takes packets and packets of “how to cost your policies” viagra, because he is so impotent he couldn’t get a pulse beat out of his brain!

  3. [For you Gary,
    SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    @TonyAbbottMHR making money from legititmate trade with China is bad? You suggest leaving the billions of dollars for someone else? Moron!]
    Thankyou SK. Well said.

  4. [Abbott is saying if Labor achieves a surplus it will be due to China. I’m yet to work out why that is bad.]

    back when i was a kid, the term “made in china” was a pejorative term used to denote something of shoddy construction, cheap and worthless material etc (as distinct from made in England or some other first world place)

    so I figure TA is drawing this allusion to the quality of the budget settings

  5. I didn’t listen to AM, but the transcript of the interview with Tone is interesting. He is so defensive and on the back foot basically throughout the whole interview. And there are pockets of juvenile responses that could’ve been written by the Young Libs:

    [SABRA LANE: You challenged the Prime Minister last night to call an election once she decides the final details of her carbon tax.

    TONY ABBOTT: Well once Bob Brown tells her what the final details ought to be.]

    And bordering on the violent hostility we saw during the indies decision-making 4Corners when he rounded on that ABC journo:

    [SABRA LANE: So you deny that you’re weakening these laws?

    TONY ABBOTT: Of course I’m not. Self-evident, I mean, I mean self-evidently I’m not. And you’re not accusing me are you?

    SABRA LANE: I’ve said it was the government.

    TONY ABBOTT: Okay, alright.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2011/s3215758.htm

    When he gets placed under a modicum of pressure he is reduced to nothing more than a gibbering thug. Imagine the effort that goes in every day to maintaining him at the minimal degrees of respectability we see. It must be a herculean effort.

  6. Gusface,

    [toolman is ex seminary

    surely he believes in god?]

    Oh, THAT God! I thought maybe it was the pseudo one called Abbott.

  7. Ben Fordam is perhaps the least anti-Labor person on 2GB these days, although he often professes to being a good mate of Abbott.

  8. sproket_ @ 5713

    back when i was a kid, the term “made in china” was a pejorative term used to denote something of shoddy construction, cheap and worthless material etc (as distinct from made in England or some other first world place)

    so I figure TA is drawing this allusion to the quality of the budget settings

    I think you draw too long a bow there. It is a lot simpler.

    He is trying to say that any surplus will be because of income from China’s mineral imports and the govt can claim no credit. Kind of a preemptive thing for when a surplus is achieved.

  9. confessions

    If Abbott was put under the same amount of pressure as the PM, he would have crumbled into a foetal position a very long time ago.

  10. confessions

    Just read that interview and I must admire Sabra Lane. No-one could accuse her of letting Abbott off. I apologise to her about what I said last year when I thought she was weak.

  11. +150K, two children in high school (private – don’t ask) checking in here. Rusted-on ALP voter, so rusted on in fact that I voted Labor at the last NSW election. Plenty of disposable income, we pretty much do as we please.

    My only 2 tax minimisation schemes are a novated car lease, and giving money to charity rather than the government. The only government “handout” we get is 20% of our medical expenses over $1500.

    I grew up in Balga in the ’60s and 70’s, I know what child endowment used to mean to my family – food and clothes. These days, the same payments (although re-labelled) mean the same thing to the people struggling, but oh so much more as we go up the income scale.

    For those on median to average incomes, it provides a little bit of disposable income. For those on around $100K or more it’s spending money. If I were to get it, it could only be described as criminal.

    The people who are on very good incomes complaining about losing a few dollars (because that’s what it is as you approach the cutoff) in supposed “welfare” absolutely disgust me. Anyone who takes their side disgusts me. Anyone who takes their side and then suggests they want to lead the country is likely to have a serious yet undiagnosed mental illness, yet they still disgust me.

    Does that make me a bad person?

  12. lizzie @ 5721

    That is the second time I’ve heard Sabra Lane put on the boxing gloves with Abbott. Being the craving coward he is, I think Abbott will don his lycra suit and ride away to avoid her. Abbott tried being the bully boy during the AM interview but Sabra didn’t flinch and persisted even when he raised his voice to drown her out.

  13. The next question to ask Tone is if he would aim to get the budget back into surplus without China. Also does that mean if he was PM would he be seeking to have China play a diminished financial role in Australia’s economic development.

  14. victoria @ 5728

    autocrat

    It makes you sensible person 🙂

    It also marks autocrat as someone who sees that life will be better for all when the benefits are spread more equitably.

  15. autocrat, I’m in the same “boat” 😉 as you – with the exception that I only have one child to worry about. And as you say, if my family were to be given a hand-out from government, I couldn’t live with myself.

  16. Did anyone else hear Paul Keating mention Abbott-a-bad the other day? He wasn’t talking about Pakistan 😀

  17. autocrat @5725
    [Does that make me a bad person?]

    Certainly not! It makes you to be a responsible, caring Australian who was not sullied by 11 years of the Howard regime, the remnants of which are doing their best to get hold of the reins again.

  18. Chris Murphy grew up in a working class family in Punchbowl if I remember correctly and was one of six or seven kids. His sister and her family were members of the ALP in my area and another of his nieces was an Councillor on Leichhardt Council

  19. Gary, there are many sensible questions that can be put to Abbott that could make him look like a complete fool.

    If any journalist wants an opportunity to enhance their career, they should go for it, if they are capable!

  20. bemused

    Precisely. My philosophy has always been that if everyone has a fair go, my own life is better for it. There is nothing more distressing than seeing people struggle.
    My parents always had the view that if our family friends and neighbors are well and having their needs met, our own lives are enriched. Basically a win win.

  21. lizzie @ 5733

    I didn’t hear that but have another story.

    When the news of bin Laden’s death was coming through on the television, I saw the caption at the bottom of the screen and couldn’t believe the ‘Abbotabad’ and nearly fell off my chair. I thought it must have been some naughty person at the ABC doing a bit of hacking to create mischief and dived for my iPhone to take a photo so I could prove it really happened later.

    It was only when I saw the comments on PB that I realised it was genuine 😆

    But I still can’t stop grinning every time I hear or read it.

  22. [victoria
    Posted Friday, May 13, 2011 at 1:49 pm | Permalink
    bg

    Are suggesting that Abbott got the rhetoric wrong because it did not suit the occasion, and therefore he failed?]

    In the full sense of rhetoric; yes.

    If he wins the argument with just the flowery stuff, it shows you where we are on the rhetorical continuum in history.

  23. I just got phone to workmate who has $170k family income 4 kids in private school and nice house in Sans Souci. I asked him if he will miss the govt handouts he replied probably not but thinks there getting a teenage rebate which will probably balance that out. He did stress that he doesn’t need the money but will take it if it’s offered.

    I asked him how he felt about recieving welfare and he honestly never thought of it as welfare at all just thought of it as a tax cuts for families with children. This attitude is probably pretty common I suspect so we shouldn’t be down on people that recieve the benefit just the grubs who are milking it for political gain.

  24. [He did stress that he doesn’t need the money but will take it if it’s offered.]

    I hope he gives it to charity.

  25. @ MTBW

    Murphy is a lefty and always has been.

    [chrismurphys chris murphy
    by Paul_MJ
    builder,driver,lawyer,butcher,baker,dentist,caretaker,labourer x of LIB&LABOR at coffee all say Budget ‘Pretty good’ .Can’t Tony Abbott?]

  26. In Tasmanian news, David Bartlett has announced he will be resigning from the Tas parliament effective from today, rather than July as he was initially planning.

  27. [This attitude is probably pretty common I suspect so we shouldn’t be down on people that recieve the benefit just the grubs who are milking it for political gain.]

    Being commonly held doesn’t make it right. Without making any personal judgement abuot someone I don’t know, the fact that he doesn’t need the money but is prepared to take it anyway is an attitude that revolts me. Not as much as the people who earn 100 times what I do but pay no tax, but still somewhat sickening.

  28. ABC34 “crossing over” to Morrison, having him drone on and on and on and on about a handful of boat people. Feck this guy is a scuzz-ball of the highest order

  29. bg

    I am trying very hard to be optimistic. I do not want Abbott to become PM ever. If We have to get a coalition govt, I will settle for Talculm. Beggars can’t be choosers!

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