The latest Essential Research poll finds the parties locked in their post-carbon tax stasis, with the Coalition steady on 47 per cent, Labor steady on 35 per cent, the Greens up one to 10 per cent and two-party preferred steady on 54-46. The survey also includes the monthly approval rating, and finds both recovering from poor showings last time: Julia Gillard up four on approval to 41 per cent and down two on disapproval to 48 per cent, Tony Abbott up six on approval to 42 per cent and down four on disapproval 44 per cent (a trend replicated elsewhere), and Gillard’s preferred prime minister rating has narrowed fractionlly from 42-33 to 43-35. Further questions on the budget find 45 per cent believe the economy to be headed in the right direction – down six on post-2010 budget – and wrong direction up four to 29 per cent. Respondents were also asked about world terrorism and the death of Osama bin Laden, and a further question about our involvement in Afghanistan found opposition continuing to harden: those favouring an increase in troop numbers have dropped from 10 per cent to 5 per cent, those favouring withdrawal are up from 47 per cent to 56 per cent, while support for the existing commitment is steady on 30 per cent.
Sorry about my disappearance earlier. I promise I wasn’t attempting a drive by troll. It’s just at the moment, if things stay the same, Abbott is a shoo-in for the Lodge. Of course nothing is certain, and new directions and/or variables could come into play (nobody can really predict an election outcome with near certainty until maybe a few days prior) but as it stands, Abbott is currently on the right track.
I also don’t think the incumbency advantage will be as high as people are hoping (as it stands right now). It certainly was absent in the 2010 election and the Gillard government have not really had much of an opportunity (or, if you prefer, have wasted it) to establish themselves as the government, especially with the Coalition using the tactic of the government being illegitimate and them being the true government in exile. It’s possible that the last minute swayers who usually side with the incumbent may, by fuel of their own ignorance, go with the Liberals.
Yes, it can all change. I wasn’t saying that Laborites should give up, not by a long shot. Elections are rarely unwinnable (especially when the 2PP gap is less than 10%) just the complacent attitude that Abbott is falling apart is not an advisable one.
journalist question to Morrison: “do you think the coalition will get a bounce in the polls after the successful budget reply speech?
…. which reminds me of Lisa Simpson’s question:
[“Mr. Burns, Your Campaign Seems To Have the Momentum of a Runaway Freight Train. Why Are You So Popular?”]
[Murphy is a lefty and always has been.
] don’t know what sort of lefty sues the pants off noisy neighbours?
Noticed that Abbott prepared himself for his budget reply by riding his bike. How did I know it? Because every blasted news report that I saw had it as the first item. Abbott on bike.
Sigh.
I s’pose as a nation entranced by sport, that is the right man for a leader. 😛
Some food for thought here on the extent of middle class welfare and it’s effect.
Benefits outweigh tax burden
{ thats a cheer up poll then}
Poll: Rate Tony Abbott’s style of opposition
Poll form
Please select an answer. Inspiring and working
Aggressive and working
Single tracked and not working
Negative and not working
View results
Inspiring and working
14%
Aggressive and working
21%
Single tracked and not working
7%
Negative and not working
58%
Total votes: 5391.
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Poll closes in 2 days.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/pm-slams-abbotts-mindless-negativity-20110513-1elh8.html#ixzz1MCjTH9Lx
[But I still can’t stop grinning every time I hear or read it.
]
the full name of the town, Abbott-a-bad Cantt, has to be some universal karma type of thing
[Abbott is saying if Labor achieves a surplus it will be due to China. I’m yet to work out why that is bad.]
That is, when it happens, he can say see I told you so!.
[victoria
Posted Friday, May 13, 2011 at 2:37 pm | Permalink
bg
I am trying very hard to be optimistic. I do not want Abbott to become PM ever. If We have to get a coalition govt, I will settle for Talculm. Beggars can’t be choosers!]
Abbott may win. Gillard may win.
We can only speculate on the outcome and commentate on the steps on the way as they occur.
I guess that there are two dimensions:
One is the role of the next 2.5 years as a preparation for the next election.
Two is the role of the next 2.5 years as a period of governance and leglisation.
At the end of that time the ALP will have had almost six years in government. More than enough time to assess a list of achievements and the resulting legacy.
sproket_ @ 5757
Even better! 👿
and if we had no china, what then or no japan, is Japan still our largest trading nation
imagine if every time we saw JUlia she was out playing golf or tennis what then would they say,
Pebbles,
Be my guest and fret to your hearts content. But, your whole analysis is premised on the status quo remaining for another two years. Voters may be unhappy with Labor at the moment because of uncertainty and inconsistency. However, once the various policies are bedded down and operating, then people will be forced to judge the Government on its performance over the journey.
As always the question at the next election is “What happens next”.
Oppositions tend not to be elected in our system. And, an Opposition threatening change back to the past, disruption and chaos as their policy mantra is unlikely to be voted in to power.
[It’s just at the moment, if things stay the same, Abbott is a shoo-in for the Lodge. Of course nothing is certain, and new directions and/or variables could come into play (nobody can really predict an election outcome with near certainty until maybe a few days prior) but as it stands, Abbott is currently on the right track.]
You’ve said it yourself, things won’t stay the same. For a start the CT/ETS will be in place by the next election. Details known and in the main fear allayed. That in itself is a huge change that we know is coming.
Pages: « 1 … 112 113 114 115 [116] Show All
[5751 To Speak of Pebbles
Posted Friday, May 13, 2011 at 2:38 pm | Permalink
Sorry about my disappearance earlier. I promise I wasn’t attempting a drive by troll. It’s just at the moment, if things stay the same, Abbott is a shoo-in for the Lodge. Of course nothing is certain, and new directions and/or variables could come into play (nobody can really predict an election outcome with near certainty until maybe ]
i was going to have dig at you before about your negativity but my computer jamed and i had to close it down.
but really what happend to the tsop of august. ,may be it the gravartar change.
[And, an Opposition threatening change back to the past, disruption and chaos as their policy mantra is unlikely to be voted in to power.]
If the Liberals love Howard so much that their only policies consist of a return to Howardia, why don’t they just make him their leader? If Can-Do Cambell can do it, so can Johnny!
[sprocket_
Posted Friday, May 13, 2011 at 2:44 pm | Permalink
But I still can’t stop grinning every time I hear or read it.
the full name of the town, Abbott-a-bad Cantt, has to be some universal karma type of thing]
is this a message from the universe may be Canntt ( cannot]
[Abbott is saying if Labor achieves a surplus it will be due to China. I’m yet to work out why that is bad.
That is, when it happens, he can say see I told you so!]
But Abbott is linking China as though it is a bad thing. I just don’t see how it is. A surplus is a surplus. Hence, even if Abbott says “I told you so” I still can’t see how people will view the result as bad.
bg
Of course only time will tell. I am still waiting for Turnbull to exact his revenge on Abbott in due course.
Some reading that offers a different perspective:
1. http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/50000-sole-parents-hit-by-welfare-measures-20110511-1ej0a.html
[AT LEAST 50,000 sole parents with teenage children will be financially worse off, even if they are working, as a result of new welfare-to-work measures announced in the budget.]
2. http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2011/s3215369.htm
Dr Mike Rafferty, senior fellow at the Workplace Research Centre at Sydney University argues that the government’s dignity of work claim is a furphy.
[He says Budget measures designed to shift single mothers and disability pensioners off welfare will actually force vulnerable people into low paid, precarious, undignified jobs which are toxic to health.]
3. The ACTU’s definition of what constitutes “Decent work”: http://www.actu.org.au/Issues/DecentWork.aspx
4. http://www.fahcsia.gov.au/about/publicationsarticles/research/austsocialpolicy/Documents/austsocpolicy_2006/article5.htm#t3
Robyn Penman, Australian Institute of Family Studies – Psychosocial factors and intergenerational transmission of welfare dependency: a review of the literature. 2006.
[From a review of the recent literature, it is concluded that there has been a tendency to treat the problem of welfare dependency and intergenerational transmission as simple matters of fact when the evidence suggests both notions are far more complex. The evidence from the literature does not support the notion of a single causal intergenerational transmission mechanism nor does it support the proposition of a simple culture of dependency dynamic that can generally account for children from income-supported homes becoming income supported later in their lives.]
And for those like me who missed it, Fran Kelly’s interview of Andrew Robb is pretty good too.
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/breakfast/stories/2011/3215687.htm
As with Abbott, Robb has no answers except ‘SHE LIED!!!’
gee ulman is trying for a comback to decent articles in one day
I agree with GG.
[But, your whole analysis is premised on the status quo remaining for another two years. Voters may be unhappy with Labor at the moment because of uncertainty and inconsistency. However, once the various policies are bedded down and operating, then people will be forced to judge the Government on its performance over the journey.
As always the question at the next election is “What happens next”.]
[The next question to ask Tone is if he would aim to get the budget back into surplus without China. Also does that mean if he was PM would he be seeking to have China play a diminished financial role in Australia’s economic development.]
Essentially if Abbott was to take China out of the equation and fulfill Hockey’s promise of getting the budget back into Surplus next year, he’d have to find this years nett $4 billion in savings ($22 billion cuts minus $18 billion extra spending, on his figures), plus another $50 billion in REAL cuts for next year (not pretend ones, or cuts that no longer apply because the funds have been already spent), plus whatever he’d forgo happily in lost tax receipts from mining, retail and any other industry that deals with products or services that generate income from China. Let’s ut it conservatively at another $40-$50 billion over 12 months.
So we’d be looking at roughly around $100 billion dollars in saving, over 12 months to accelarate the Surplus and quarantine China money.
Then he has to immediately find a couple of billion a year for the next few years to fund his Carbon Dioxide Reduction bribes to industry. He needs to find more lazy billions to pay $150k earners their full salary when they take 6 months off to have babies. He needs to restore the Family Benefits “A” and “B” back to their old scales, PLUS give companies a tax cut of 2.5% over then next couple of years.
He won’t save anything by canning the NBN because that’s a capital investment (despite what he says and what the shock jocks put out to their mentally enfeebled listeners… reality will focus his mind rather sharply on that).
He’s going to can contingency funds in several areas, so there’s no slush funds if Budget items go over their predicted limits.
His courage will be tested if he goes ahead with sacking 12,000 public servants from Canberra alone (Joe Hockey has vowed the “regions” and the “cities” won’t be affected).
There will also have to be another $1 billion or so to fund the payola to Nauru to stop a few boatloads of refugees touching our sacred shores.
He’ll build new schools, hospitals and main roads with whatever is left over, which will be nothing.
It’s recipe for an instant recession, if not an instant depression, if he keeps all his promises, which not only he will not, but which he cannot.
It’s a total fantasy that this mob can do anything much that they promise. The people who “audited” his figures last election are under investigation by their own professional body for their efforts. Yet their clients keep on making these amazing, if laughable promises, getting the media to swallow them without laughing out loud and then dutifully turning to the relevant government minister and asking, “Can you match that?” using the he-said/she-said routine. And the accountants just tick them off as “sustainable”.
[“Joe Hockey says he can walk on water. Can you do that Prime Minister?”
“Tony Abbott says the Earth is flat. This will save millions in aircraft fuel, which will reduce Carbon emissions by 10% immediately. What proposals do you have to equal or exceed this bold infrastructure and environmental initiative, Mr. Albanese?”
“Gerry Harvey can do set-top boxes for half the price of the government’s scheme. Why don’t you just pick up the phone to Mr. Harvey and save $250 million, Mr. Conroy?”]
Note: this last question was actually asked today of Conroy, who must be slapping himself to see if he’s awake, or whether it’s all just a bad political dream.
There are so many lies, exaggerations, untruths, dodgy numbers, fatuous schemes, pie-in-the-sky wishful thoughts, outright fantasies and logical impossibilities thrown at the government every single day by a cacophony of media urgers, shock jocks, fake think tanks and bullshit Coalition politicians it’s a wonder the Labor people know where to start pulling them apart. You could see the shocked looks on the government’s faces last night as Abbott played, as if to a pub crowd, with his cheap slogans, workshopped talking points, hot button buzzwords and nasty, personal smears, one after the other.
It is absolutely gob-smacking, to me, that the most prosperous economy in the world, with the lowest unemployment, low interest rates, and with such a bright investment future can be sold as an abject failure as the result of actions, all of which commenced exactly one day after the defeat of the previous government, and which can be repaired within 12 months, in full, with change left over for the re-institutionalization of sickening amounts of middle class welfare and tax cuts for corporations.
I’m continually shocked that the media plays their part by repeating, word for word, the nauseating talking points of the Opposition and its spruikers as if they had a scintilla of common sense somewhere depp within them, and that they manage to keep this cloud-cuckoo land going in the face of obvious reality, as if its some kind of radio quiz, or a rainy day board game with plastic houses for tokens, cardboard for a playing area and two loaded dice to determine what today’s travesty proposal will be.
confessions, this is a great sentance, and now frans trying for a come back to
will this all last
[Fran Kelly: And Treasury found since the election that $11 billion of those were illegitimate.
Andrew Robb: Well, the governmenthas picked up some of the ones that the Treasury said were illegitimate. That was a political exercise. I can tell you, as a political exercise.]
new directors any one..
POLLYTICS | 1 minute ago
[The Sustainable Population Strategy has been released]
http://bit.ly/i9kZE6
my say:
My favourite was this one:
[Fran Kelly: Andrew Robb, Tony Abbott didn’t detail any spending cuts last night. Instead he called for a new election. Is the Opposition so short of ideas that all you can use a budget reply for is to call for an election?]
Hi Bludgers
I have just been an hour on the road driving home. It was hard to stay focussed on driving when much of what I was hearing on the radio was Abbott carrying on like an unregistered dog.
When, just when is he going to have his ridiculous diatribe seriously challenged by the MSM?
BB
Your analysis is excellent.
Why don’t you send your post to Toolman or Cassidy, since they have both appear to have had a road to Damascus conversion in the past few days. It really would be worth their while to read it.
Bushfire Bill 5774 – agree totally. You have just argued the case why Labor can’t get its message out. Beautifully done.
BK,
It’s wallpaper sound. The MSM will keep pandering to it while it is fashionable. But we’ll end up with our ears covered in a multiplicity of 70s swirls, whirls and gibberish.
BK
An unregistered dog with rabies
Pegasus
Thank you for those links, but the effects are very hard to work out unless a person has a detailed knowledge of all the conditions – or is actually affected, of course.
One statistic which makes things even harder is the criterion for being “at work”.
One big muddle, in my view.
[An unregistered dog with rabies]
In need of a good spaying.
Well I was actually criticising approach, not happenstance. But I do take all your points on board. They are valid.
If this could get some traction with the MSM it would change things a bit. I hope some reporter asks Abbott and Pell about this !!
Vatican issues major scientific report on climate change
http://www.indcatholicnews.com/news.php?viewStory=18215
The working group recommends three measures to reduce the threat of climate change and its impacts:
[1.“Reduce worldwide carbon dioxide emissions without delay, using all means possible to meet ambitious international global warming targets and ensure the long-term stability of the climate system. All nations must focus on a rapid transition to renewable energy sources and other strategies to reduce CO2 emissions. etc etc]
BB
[He won’t save anything by canning the NBN because that’s a capital investment ]
You forgot the $6 billion he will give to telcos to implement his “idea”. Thats another 6 bill of savings he needs to find.
[In need of a good spaying.]
Er, autocrat, I think that term refers to female dogs.
Pegasus
Hasn’t the amount single mums can earn, before it affects their payment, been increased in the budget?
lizzie,
Thanks 🙂
Hearing Gillard talking up “the dignity of work” didn’t go over too well in our household, as it wouldn’t for all those workers on the lowest rung of the employment ladder who are paid minimum wages and employed on a casual basis with no job security whatsoever.
For example, cleaning up the vomit and sh$t left behind by others in toilets, hotel rooms and elsewhere is hardly a “dignified” way of life to earn money to put food on the table.
Read a piece by Lenore Taylor yesterday and while I usually don’t mind reading her articles I was disappointed that in parts she too, was using words like ” desperate Gillard Govt”. I ask the question in what way is the govt desperate? They are behind in the polls at a time of the cycle relative to being 15 minutes into an 80 minute game. Otherwise the govt is governing. It is getting legislation passed; it has just introduced a budget which most apart from the loonies seem to accept as OK; it has an agenda in place that includes carbon pricing and Murray/Darling Basin : it is governing despite the day to day distractions of a rabid MSM. So I don’t know how desperate the govt is. Come 2.5 years time and election time it might be getting anxious but it will also be able to look back at the previous 6 years and say ” Hey, we have in fact achieved quite a few remarkable things.” ( and on this last point I can’t remember who, but someone a while ago posted the achievements just of the Rudd years and personally I found it to be very impressive let alone the major changes under the Gillard Govt)
Perhaps ABC is getting worried our GetUp petition might get up? We’re over the 1000 votes mark, with a steady stream of comments 99% of which are on-side for the petition.
Pegasus,
At heart you’re a job snob.
[For example, cleaning up the vomit and sh$t left behind by others in toilets, hotel rooms and elsewhere is hardly a “dignified” way of life to earn money to put food on the table.]
So what is the answer? Dignified robots?
Abbott is playing things smart on the carbon tax. Last night he promised the COALition would repeal it, but just think about the Senate numbers. Even if he wins an election in 2013, it is quite possible the Greens will hold the balance of power in the Senate for the entire 2013 – 2016 term. There is no way in hell the Greens would support any bill that would repeal a carbon tax, which means Abbott can just blame them. By the time 2016 rolls around, having a price on carbon will be a bipartisan issue.
So by constantly attacking a carbon price, Abbott doesn’t really have much to lose. Of course most voters don’t understand or care that Abbott actually has little chance of repealing it even if he becomes PM.
GG
That’s a bit tough. There are a lot of jobs I wouldn’t/couldn’t do.
However, I’ve retrained myself several times in my working “career”. I think the training opportunities must be helpful to some.
The Greens and the independents are taking a pragmatic approach to this – sure Bob Brown in particular wants amendments to some of the harsher welfare to work measures, but he isn’t trying to sink the entire budget, in comparison to Abbott’s obvious scorched earth policy.
Phoney is convinced the keys to the Lodge were stolen from him, so are elements of the MSM, hence the reason for this blitzkreig against Labor right now.
There won’t be an election until 2013, Gillard can ride this one out, assuming she gets the Carbon Tax and the Mining Tax through parliament.
Not that I’m a huge Julia fan, but she’s preferable to that truly terrifying Tony Abbott on the other side of the fence.
[I ask the question in what way is the govt desperate? They are behind in the polls at a time of the cycle relative to being 15 minutes into an 80 minute game. Otherwise the govt is governing. It is getting legislation passed; it has just introduced a budget which most apart from the loonies seem to accept as OK; it has an agenda in place that includes carbon pricing and Murray/Darling Basin : it is governing despite the day to day distractions of a rabid MSM.]
I agree.
ru,
I remember a story about Damian Monkhurst who was a Collingwood ruckman in the 1990 Grand Final victory. Monkhurst, a plumber by trade, tells the story that Alan MacAllister, the Collingwood President of that time told him that he’d never need to work again after that great and glorious victory. Monkhurst says he thinks about that comment everytime he’s shoulder deep cleaning out a backed up sewer or septic.
Anyone got an e-mail address for Lenore?