Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research poll finds the parties locked in their post-carbon tax stasis, with the Coalition steady on 47 per cent, Labor steady on 35 per cent, the Greens up one to 10 per cent and two-party preferred steady on 54-46. The survey also includes the monthly approval rating, and finds both recovering from poor showings last time: Julia Gillard up four on approval to 41 per cent and down two on disapproval to 48 per cent, Tony Abbott up six on approval to 42 per cent and down four on disapproval 44 per cent (a trend replicated elsewhere), and Gillard’s preferred prime minister rating has narrowed fractionlly from 42-33 to 43-35. Further questions on the budget find 45 per cent believe the economy to be headed in the right direction – down six on post-2010 budget – and wrong direction up four to 29 per cent. Respondents were also asked about world terrorism and the death of Osama bin Laden, and a further question about our involvement in Afghanistan found opposition continuing to harden: those favouring an increase in troop numbers have dropped from 10 per cent to 5 per cent, those favouring withdrawal are up from 47 per cent to 56 per cent, while support for the existing commitment is steady on 30 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,898 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Paul J @ 5786

    I take it the Pope will issue an edict that candles and incense will no longer be burned in Caholic churches worldwide. Perhaps, instead of the white smoke from the chimney signalling the election of the next Pope, a Swiss Guard could stand on the roof and wave a flag?

  2. [Abbott is playing things smart on the carbon tax. Last night he promised the COALition would repeal it, but just think about the Senate numbers. Even if he wins an election in 2013, it is quite possible the Greens will hold the balance of power in the Senate for the entire 2013 – 2016 term. There is no way in hell the Greens would support any bill that would repeal a carbon tax, which means Abbott can just blame them. By the time 2016 rolls around, having a price on carbon will be a bipartisan issue.]
    That’s assuming Abbott wouldn’t go to a DD on the issue.

  3. lizzie,

    I worked as a part time cleaner in a couple of drive in cinemas when I was at Uni. Cleaned up plenty of rubbish and human detrius in my time. My wife and I happily spent the money on our happy home.

  4. I worked in the PS for approx 25 years and left at the age of 43 after having a ” mid life crisis. ”

    In the 10 years since I left I have worked in a vaeiety of jobs including mail room delivery person, a cleaner, stop/go man and as a courier driver.

    At no time was I upset or ashamed of my work and at the end of the day I could hold my head high because I had earned my money.

    Yes some of the work was not nice, was casual not permanent,was boring and repetitive but it was honest work and far better than sitting at home on my bum.

    I often wonder if people calling certain jobs undignified are the very same people who look down on those who do that work.

  5. GG

    Decades ago there was a public convenience near the Civic Theatre in Canberra, it had a full time attendant. The place gleamed, it smelt of perfume, the showers were hot.

    The attendant took great pride is his dignified work.

  6. [I ask the question in what way is the govt desperate? They are behind in the polls at a time of the cycle relative to being 15 minutes into an 80 minute game. Otherwise the govt is governing. It is getting legislation passed; it has just introduced a budget which most apart from the loonies seem to accept as OK; it has an agenda in place that includes carbon pricing and Murray/Darling Basin : it is governing despite the day to day distractions of a rabid MSM.]

    Yes. An election is 2 years away and a week is a long time in politics.

    In a year the carbon tax will be where the Flood Levy is, consigned to the distant memories of the punter.

    Abbott will have to explain how he is going to take away the compensation the Govt is going to give (in many cases overcompensation) and also how he will turn back the investment companies have started in clean production processes. He will also expalin how he will decrease utility prices.

    Make no mistake – like the GST you CANNOT unscramble the Carbon tax ETS egg.

    The ONLY way to stop the Govt and give credence to his rhetoric is by having an early election.

    Two questions are vital to be asked by a journo with any intelligence.

    1) How will Abbott unscramble the egg of the Carbon tax/ETS/Compensation?

    2) How will Abbott return to surplus without Chinese revenue (as he seems to think trade with China is illigitimate?

    3) You called for an election NOW, but said you would release your costings later in the electoral cycle. Does this mean that you have no costings now and that if Gillard took up your challenge and called an immediate election you would have no costings, or your costings are fully prepared but you refuse to release them to the voting public?

    Either way Abbott is being duplicitious.

  7. [Emma_Rodgers | 1 minute ago
    Dickson woolworths lack of checkout staff staggering.]

    Checkout register work is undignified, obviously.

    😛

  8. Doyley,

    i remember going through a time when people would say” and What do you dooooo”
    when i mentioned what i did it was o my god really do you earn anything from that?
    in the end I loved telling them what i did to see what happened, it was very enlightening and invigorating sometimes
    .

  9. [PRE-BUDGET L-NP (54.5%) INCREASES WINNING LEAD – ALP (45.5%)

    ——————————————————————————–
    Finding No. 4667 – The face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last weekend, May 7/8, 2011, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 791 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 6% did not name a party.: May 13, 2011

    The latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted over last weekend, May 7-8, 2011, shows the L-NP 54.5%, (up 0.5%) increasing it’s big lead over the ALP 45.5, (down 0.5%) on a Two-Party preferred basis.

    The Morgan Poll shows the L-NP primary vote is 48% (up 2%), well ahead of the ALP 34%, (unchanged). Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 11%, (unchanged) and Others/ Independents 7%, (down 2%).

    If a Federal election were held today the L-NP would easily win according to this Morgan Poll
    ]

    New Morgan, A whopping 48% PV for the coalition.

  10. [I remember a story about Damian Monkhurst who was a Collingwood ruckman in the 1990 Grand Final victory. Monkhurst, a plumber by trade, tells the story that Alan MacAllister, the Collingwood President of that time told him that he’d never need to work again after that great and glorious victory. Monkhurst says he thinks about that comment everytime he’s shoulder deep cleaning out a backed up sewer or septic.]

    When he worked for our company about ten years ago Monkey had minions to dig his ditches while he raked in the money 😉

  11. [If a Federal election were held today the L-NP would easily win according to this Morgan Poll ]

    Was one held today?

    OK so we are safe from Abbott for another two years???

  12. i just detest the words check out chick i remember ticking of someone who used that word , they looked very surprised i think they thought it was a normal word to use

  13. [Actually the whingers are the boomers whose parents scrimped and svaed during wartimes and depressions to have enough capital to give their cildren a deposit for a house …

    They now feel entitled to spend their childrens inheritance on overseas trips and plasma tvs. They forgot how they got to a place of prosperity in the first place.

    So the Gen Xers are the ones left behind. They did everyhting they were told. Stay in school. Go to uni. Get a job any job you can. Buy a house.]

    You’re back shovelling like mad in the feed-lot, bluegreen. Bullsh#t . But just there really are idiots out there who actually believe that utter crap (and Herr Krapmeister Abbott) despite the number of very readable books on the subject, I’ll bite.

    BTW, Boomer-Haters are those seriously jealous of parents or siblings who raged through the Rock Era, and are still raging. Parents etc paid their own way. So can their lazy offspring who, because they’re serious (and seriously up-themselves) wangkers with an overblown sense of entitlement, feel they’re entitled to what their parents earned. In addition, you’d have to know sweet FA about Oz families (and effects of Depression and Wars) 1930s to 1960s, to come up with the whingers are the boomers whose parents scrimped and svaed during wartimes and depressions to have enough capital to give their cildren a deposit for a house.

    Not house deposits; not in Australia. There was almost no house building 1929 -49 (people with money bought foreclosed properties for rent). Commodity-dependent Australia was one of the worst hit nations in the developed world.

    I come from an average-sized family. My father had professional skills (earned at night after a day’s work) which meant he was comparatively well paid; but, like many of the highly-skilled, he’d watched what those skills earned in the 1920s gradually ‘go’ during the Depression, inc house, car, furniture. Like so many others, he started again:

    [Even before the … stock market crash on Wall Street .. unemployment in Australia was … at ten per cent … After the crash unemployment in Australia more than doubled to twenty-one per cent in mid-1930, and reached its peak in mid-1932 when almost thirty-two per cent of Australians were out of work.]
    http://australia.gov.au/about-australia/australian-story/great-depression

    In addition, few mothers worked; there were few household machines available until c1950 onwards, and they were incredibly expensive. Our first fridge cost £80 guineas ($168) when the basic wage had just hit £5pw ($10) BTW, it’s 60 yo & still going as a friend’s beer fridge; Victor mower £58 (or 58 guineas, forget which) – 10/11 weeks wages. A tiny single tub washing machine (?Hoover) was £69; a Pope wringer washer a fair bit more expensive. Cars were over £1,000 until the VW @ £7– something ?£769 (Dad’s first new car since the 1920s).

    Most families were big. The Pill hit Oz (but was still restricted) c1967. Apart from condoms & backyard abortions, there were no other readily available forms of contraception. Priests & pastors railed against diaphragms (all contraception, in fact); which were very hard and expensive to purchase (from a specialist). Abstinence was the only church-approved form of contraception. 12 children was considered a big family; 6/7 was the norm; 1-4 small.

    Just try getting your head around the reality of life in post-war Australia; then work out what planet you’d be on if you still thought there was any truth in scrimped and svaed during wartimes and depressions to have enough capital to give their cildren a deposit for a house.

    What parents did scrimp and save for (at least until Y10/junior, then 12/senior as trade, para/professional, college & university entry standards rose) was education – formal & add ons like music, tennis, ballet, art, speech & drama. Why do you think The One Day of the Year resonated so well with war babies & post-war generations? Because that was the story of their youth. Get an education. Win a scholarship to a good uni faculty. Get a secure job, esp in the public service (did not sack workers during the Depression). Settle down, save the deposit for land (paid of before marriage was the ideal) and a house BTW, the year I started at UQ (Evening) I think less than half of the students were full time. I know a third were external. We worked our way through university.

    I can honestly say I did/do not know even one person whose parents gave them the deposit on the house. Many of us did elect to forgo gifts & parties for special occasions like 21st Birthdays, engagements, even expensive weddings, and accept the cost as a bank deposit (mine paid uni fees & bought books). We jolly-well saved land and house deposits ourselves, and DIYed what we bought into “nice”, often “doing up” old cottages & selling to get enough money for the “real” house.

    I’d recommend a bit of research before sticking your foot in your mouth, then shooting your mouth off.

  14. So Barrie Cassidy, Fran Kelly and Chris Uhlman have all gone in hard on Abbott and the Libs for the first time in living memory… Peter Hartcher was uncharacteristically kind to Swan’s budget… Do they sniff something in the wind?

  15. [That’s assuming Abbott wouldn’t go to a DD on the issue.]
    Wouldn’t a D.D. just make it even easier for the Greens to win even more seats, thus again giving them the balance of power?

  16. [Peter Hartcher was uncharacteristically kind to Swan’s budget… Do they sniff something in the wind?]
    Hartcher is always much kinder to Labor.

  17. Lizzie

    From the article you linked to:

    [Nationals Senate Leader Barnaby Joyce says the Government’s budget was “like a town drunk with a new pair of socks”.]

    I can’t wait for someone to quote that back to him in a few years time.

    WTF does it even mean?

  18. 5808 – I shop at Dickson Woolworths all the time. Sometimes the lines are long but gives you time to chat to the punters. The staff there are always helpful in my experience.

  19. Or better still, that can be used as derisory phrase by people in the future, such as:

    “(insert name here) is carrying on like Barnaby Joyce with a new pair of socks”

    👿 😛 😆

  20. [journalist question to Morrison: “do you think the coalition will get a bounce in the polls after the successful budget reply speech?]

    was it succcessful that s just their opinion have they ask us.

  21. Wow, this is the best part of the Barry Cassidy article:
    [Abbott said on AM that “this government” says people on $150,00 “are super rich,” (they haven’t said that) and “they don’t deserve any help from the government.” (They haven’t said that either.) He then said , “Sure, these people might be doing better than most, but they’re doing better than most through hard work.” Is he suggesting those who don’t earn that much haven’t worked hard enough? ]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/05/13/3216341.htm

    Most Liberals think that people who earn more money do so because they work harder. To them their eduction level and family background have nothing to do with it.

  22. DG:

    It doesn’t have to ‘mean’ anything. Barnaby’s inanities seem to be reliably reproduced, regardless of whether they make sense or not.

  23. [From the article you linked to:

    Nationals Senate Leader Barnaby Joyce says the Government’s budget was “like a town drunk with a new pair of socks”]

    they must speak a different language to us, where he comes from
    what hells he talking about.

  24. [ScottMorrisonMP | 1 minute ago
    Gillard popn policy has more glossy photo’s than Women’s Weekly’s Royal Wedding Coverage – all spin no substance #auspol #fb]

    Right wing projection!

  25. [Most Liberals think that people who earn more money do so because they work harder. To them their eduction level and family background have nothing to do with it.]

    Or as I said earlier

    [true prosperity is built through generations and rarely in a lifetime.]

  26. Dan G

    I suspect he’s trying to say that the govt have tried to cover their policy nakedness by dressing up.
    Typical example of pot seeing black kettle.

  27. Confessions

    I warned several times here, over and over for a long period of time that the population policy would be fluff.

    Fluff is all I have come to expect from Minister Burke.

  28. [Of all electors surveyed, 6% did not name a party.: May 13, 2011 ]

    well how can that be a poll then what if the 6 percent went either way

  29. bg:

    You were right about the policy.

    But when the coalition delivers something of substance then I’ll accept Morrison’s assertion that the govt is all spin. 😛

  30. OMG

    I just found what I said on Crikey the day the population minister was announced. Creepy.

    [blue_green
    Posted April 6, 2010 at 7:38 am | Permalink

    Population is the issue for Australia. It plays to the environment, infrastructure, economic growth, defence capability and who is going to wipe my arse when I am in a nursing home 50 years from now.

    The coalition’s policy making record in opposition under Tony has been so crap that there is no way they can come up with something coherent.

    Having said that. The ALP will appoint a Minister, commision a report, consult, consider the reports findings and wait for the media cycle to pass.

    And, I reckon Scott Morrison will be the next Opposition Leader after the election.
    (You heard it here first).
    ]

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/thestump/2010/04/04/population-pulls-parties-in-different-directions/#comment-2744

    I hope the last statement isnt true 😉

  31. [“The Women’s Weekly’s royal wedding coverage I think only exceeds this document in terms of its commitment to glossy photos – 10 per cent of the document is literally glossy full-page photos.”]

    So 9 glossies in an 88 page document. When did you last read the WW Scott?

  32. bluegreen

    Heard someone the other day (sorry, can’t remember who) say wtte whether it was planned for or not, the population would grow, and the only thing to do was to provide the infrastructure and hang on tight.

  33. [true prosperity is built through generations and rarely in a lifetime.]

    And even if built within one lifetime, it is often a very rare set of circumstances or opportunities that aren’t normally there.

    I would never have started my own business, one that made no money in the three years of operation, if it wasn’t for the support of my family and their existing safety net, knowing that if I failed I wouldn’t wind up on the streets. Most people don’t have the luxury.

  34. I was at Uni with Tony Burke.

    Really nice bloke but I think better off in an adminstrative portfolio rather than ones which attract strong opinions from different sides with Tony in the middle.

  35. [The Women’s Weekly’s royal wedding coverage I think only exceeds this document in terms of its commitment to glossy photos – 10 per cent of the document is literally glossy full-page photos.”

    So 9 glossies in an 88 page document. When did you last read the WW Scott?]

    Is Scotty as jealous as Tone that he didn’t get an invite?

  36. [true prosperity is built through generations ]

    What about the rags to riches migrants? Quite a number of them in Aus.
    Yes, hard work, but also a ruthless determination to make a profit.

  37. as long as he remains opp leader then thats ok

    B/G dont quite get the meaning what was that about and how did you find it

  38. I am thinking that Mark Butler will inherit the Labor leadership after we have 6 years of Gillard govt.

    I have been REALLY impressed with Mark over this Mental Health thing. He speaks well, clearly and with gravitas.

  39. The next statement I said was this

    [blue_green
    Posted April 6, 2010 at 7:51 am | Permalink
    Furthermore, Burkes promotion is a snub for Albanese. Albo had recently launched a “our cities are stuffed” report, which I imagined would have been followed up by some sort of green infrastructure grants to soften the impacts of overdevelopment in our cities.

    I reckon Burke will now get to put together a big cash splash for urban environmental management.]

    To which Minister Burke has announced this:

    [Minister for Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities
    $150 million to lay the foundations for a sustainable Australia
    Media release
    10 May 2011 ]

    which includes this:

    [The Budget also invests $29.2 million in a new Sustainable Regional Development initiative to support better sustainability planning in regions that are experiencing high growth.

    The Sustainable Regional Development program will support strategic assessments under national environmental law in up to seven additional regional and coastal growth areas.

    “This program will improve environmental outcomes whilst also giving certainty to state and local governments and the private sector to invest in housing, infrastructure and resource development,” Mr Burke said. ]

    Which is already a responsibility under legislation and the process is well underway. ie they are already doing it.

    Ie the policy is a total load of rubbish.

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