Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research poll finds the parties locked in their post-carbon tax stasis, with the Coalition steady on 47 per cent, Labor steady on 35 per cent, the Greens up one to 10 per cent and two-party preferred steady on 54-46. The survey also includes the monthly approval rating, and finds both recovering from poor showings last time: Julia Gillard up four on approval to 41 per cent and down two on disapproval to 48 per cent, Tony Abbott up six on approval to 42 per cent and down four on disapproval 44 per cent (a trend replicated elsewhere), and Gillard’s preferred prime minister rating has narrowed fractionlly from 42-33 to 43-35. Further questions on the budget find 45 per cent believe the economy to be headed in the right direction – down six on post-2010 budget – and wrong direction up four to 29 per cent. Respondents were also asked about world terrorism and the death of Osama bin Laden, and a further question about our involvement in Afghanistan found opposition continuing to harden: those favouring an increase in troop numbers have dropped from 10 per cent to 5 per cent, those favouring withdrawal are up from 47 per cent to 56 per cent, while support for the existing commitment is steady on 30 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,898 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. [Danny Lewis
    Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 4:50 pm | Permalink
    There is only one way the Opposition can go from here and that is to just be honest and admit they don’t like towel-heads.]

    I agree and this deserves tweeting so I did.

  2. Stasis will only last until compensation package comes out.

    Methinks Abbottabad is crying foul that no CC elements are in budget because he KNOW once the details are out the votes will begin to turn.

    He wanted it to be lost in the budget ‘bad news’.

  3. Sarah HY just said we should be taking in the people who have been assessed in an orderly manner. Pardon? Isn’t that part of the agreement with Malaysia?

  4. [ruawake
    Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

    Heard a rumour that the Australia Council is facing the axe.]

    That wasn’t a part of the 2020 summit!

  5. VP,

    you missed the ‘but’ chest thump, ‘but’ chest thrust and thump, ‘BUT!’ bruising chest thump, red face, spittle flying onto dispatch box …

  6. Jen
    [you missed the ‘but’ chest thump, ‘but’ chest thrust and thump, ‘BUT!’ bruising chest thump, red face, spittle flying onto dispatch box …]
    That’s all fine for Sophie, but what about Tony?

  7. [Sarah HY just said we should be taking in the people who have been assessed in an orderly manner]

    Good grief. If she stopped bleating for 2 seconds, calmed down and listened to what the PM and minister have said, she wouldn’t embarrass herself with thought bubbles like this.

  8. I actually support the govt. on the as deal with Malaysia. Happy to accept 5-1 genuine refugees ratio rather than people trying to force their way in.

  9. Joe6Pack

    That’s what anyone might agree with if they had the facts, rather than the rubbish coming out atm.

  10. [That wasn’t a part of the 2020 summit!]

    🙂

    The Govt has realised it is spending hundreds of millions of dollars on organisations whose sole role is to hand out Govt grants. There is a push to return this role to Govt Depts.

    We saw it with environmental grants last budget.

  11. [ruawake

    Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

    That wasn’t a part of the 2020 summit!

    The Govt has realised it is spending hundreds of millions of dollars on organisations whose sole role is to hand out Govt grants. There is a push to return this role to Govt Depts.

    We saw it with environmental grants last budget.
    ]

    Oh dear, the Luvvies over at LP will be Livid – the ALP abandoning the Yartz ??

    THE GALL.

  12. [We saw it with environmental grants last budget.]

    Actually there were few savings on the adminsitrative end, just big reductions across the board in natural resource management grants.

    Its funny, in all other sectors: health, social services, ageing, the NGO sector is doing more and more of the work. But in the enviro sector, the move is the other way.

  13. [Speers just ‘admitted’ Labor’s policies didn’t get coverage in election!]

    Oh, bloody hell.

    Yet again with the, “it was the others wot done it!!!”

  14. I went to Paris in the mid-90’s, just for three nights. I would love to go back. I also want to go to Holland, and after the Dutch art, I want to see Ajax play. And if you read that as ‘ay-jacks’ instead of ‘eye-axe’, then you can clean the bathroom while I go to the football.

  15. [Speers just ‘admitted’ Labor’s policies didn’t get coverage in election!]

    What does he mean?

    Which policies?

  16. [Speers just ‘admitted’ Labor’s policies didn’t get coverage in election!]

    So where was the taxpayer-funded public broadcaster?

    … Oh, that’s right, wriggling into Abbottobad’s nether regions.

    “The Federal Opposition says …”

  17. [Check your email got a bit of political history via an interview with Warren Mitchell andf The Dismissal.]

    Frank – have you read Paul Barry’s book on Murdoch. It gives a very revealing portrayal of Murdoch with the Kerr the day before the dismissal.

    Gough didn’t have a clue what was going to hit him but Paul Barry reveals a lot.

  18. [lizzie
    Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

    Joe6Pack

    That’s what anyone might agree with if they had the facts, rather than the rubbish coming out atm.]

    Are you saying I shouldn’t agree?

  19. I’m sure I read a Phillip Adams column in the last few years where he talked about the Australia Council’s halcyon days being well and truly in the past. Mind you, that comment was perhaps influenced by his ego. 😉

  20. William

    Have you read on Crikey that Newspoll have been accessed of push polling on a question about the CT? Several people here have asked if you are surprised. If you wish to read those comments/questions of you they appear about 60 to 90 minutes ago in the previous thread.

  21. [ Speers just ‘admitted’ Labor’s policies didn’t get coverage in election!

    What does he mean?

    Which policies?]

    He said wtte: Many announcements this week were reannouncements because they didn’t get coverage during the election!

  22. [… Oh, that’s right, wriggling into Abbottobad’s nether regions.]

    ooohhh Cuppa — scary mental pictures! Feeling vomity.

  23. [He said wtte: Many announcements this week were reannouncements because they didn’t get coverage during the election!]

    No Brittany, they are election commitments being put in place and funded via the first budget after the election. Twerp.

  24. [Tom Hawkins

    Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

    William

    Have you read on Crikey that Newspoll have been accessed of push polling on a question about the CT? Several people here have asked if you are surprised. If you wish to read those comments/questions of you they appear about 60 to 90 minutes ago in the previous thread.
    ]

    Perhaps William will be like The Fonz:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwkU8-d1gIk&NR=1

  25. [He said wtte: Many announcements this week were reannouncements because they didn’t get coverage during the election!]

    Surely if they were announced during the election campaign, and are ‘re-announced’ in the budget, they are actually the govt delivering on its election promises, not re-announcements?

  26. Calling something a “conspiracy theory” is sometimes a means of trying to shame questioning people into keeping their mouths (and minds) shut.

  27. [Surely if they were announced during the election campaign, and are ‘re-announced’ in the budget, they are actually the govt delivering on its election promises, not re-announcements?]

    His words … my focus was the admission that they weren’t covered in election — he said wtte: “well, y’know, because of other things like Mark Latham etc (he mentioned several things).”

  28. [His words … my focus was the admission that they weren’t covered in election — he said wtte: “well, y’know, because of other things like Mark Latham etc (he mentioned several things).”]
    Oh, Britney, you mean really IMPORTANT things?

  29. From the Music Forum Midoztouch comes this gem which was upposedly funded by the SA Libs in 1967:

    [
    micko

    Mar 7, 2009 – 12:04PM

    QuoteReply
    Re: Young Australians – Shadow Valleys & Iron Triangles

    Hi guys

    If you do a search, you’ll find the wonderful Antipodean Atrocities has been posted here a year or so ago which lots of vomit inducing marvels Tho it must be said that not ALL of said atrocities are as bad as others I can name

    As to those Young Aussies, for those unaware, this supposedly patriotic but instead rather hilariously moralistic, essentially spoken word monologue set to music, was a huge #1 smash in Adelaide in 1967 during the height of the the Vietnam War protest movement. It failed to make any other charts elsewhere though. Some may wonder why hhehehehe

    Ripped from vinyl single @320 kbps

    http://www.megaupload.com/?d=V7PZWPWU

    Anyway, for those inclined, I hope you ENJOY. Or at least get a good laugh

    Cheers

    Micko ]

    Full thread of the Discussion here:

    http://pub44.bravenet.com/forum/static/show.php?usernum=3725630012&frmid=8&msgid=1010683&cmd=show

  30. jen:

    I’d like to think it was just Speers being clueless, but we first heard the ‘re-announcables’ last week (Maiden, I think), tweeting it as a way of dismissing the govt delivering on its promises.

    Sounds like a concerted Murdochracy line of spin they are using to discredit the govt’s achievements. We really start calling these people out when we see things like this.

  31. Joe6pack @ 30

    lizzie
    Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

    Joe6Pack

    That’s what anyone might agree with if they had the facts, rather than the rubbish coming out atm.

    Are you saying I shouldn’t agree?

    Joe, I waited but it seems lizzie isn’t going to respond.

    You have clearly misunderstood her response. She is saying anyone who had the facts might agree. However some people are being confused by rubbish that is coming out, presumably from Abbott & Co.

  32. [bemused
    Joe, I waited but it seems lizzie isn’t going to respond.

    You have clearly misunderstood her response. She is saying anyone who had the facts might agree. However some people are being confused by rubbish that is coming out, presumably from Abbott & Co.]

    Ok thanks for that. I really think it is a good policy. Despite what some here believe I don’t hate as I just don’t rate it highly as a issue for me. I am quite happy as i said to accept 5 genuine refugees to 1 non genuine refugee.

  33. On Capital Hill, Kate Lundy just debagged George Christensen and gave him a good going over. One line: the Nauru solution is just people warehousing. George gave a preview of the budget in reply speech – Three Word Slogans and no policies.

  34. [There are some encouraging signs for consumers, with petrol prices likely to slide by as much as 10 cents per litre in the next few weeks.]

    Poor Tony, he can’t take a trick.

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