Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research poll finds the parties locked in their post-carbon tax stasis, with the Coalition steady on 47 per cent, Labor steady on 35 per cent, the Greens up one to 10 per cent and two-party preferred steady on 54-46. The survey also includes the monthly approval rating, and finds both recovering from poor showings last time: Julia Gillard up four on approval to 41 per cent and down two on disapproval to 48 per cent, Tony Abbott up six on approval to 42 per cent and down four on disapproval 44 per cent (a trend replicated elsewhere), and Gillard’s preferred prime minister rating has narrowed fractionlly from 42-33 to 43-35. Further questions on the budget find 45 per cent believe the economy to be headed in the right direction – down six on post-2010 budget – and wrong direction up four to 29 per cent. Respondents were also asked about world terrorism and the death of Osama bin Laden, and a further question about our involvement in Afghanistan found opposition continuing to harden: those favouring an increase in troop numbers have dropped from 10 per cent to 5 per cent, those favouring withdrawal are up from 47 per cent to 56 per cent, while support for the existing commitment is steady on 30 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,898 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. joe6pack & bemused

    Sorry, rushed off to put the dinner on and have just popped back. Thanks, bemused, you explained well. I should be more careful in my brief posts 😀

  2. To have a good look at the best galleries inParis takes a minimum of about ten days. The Louve is an all day job, the Orangerie about half a day, the Marmottan half a day, the Rodin another day, plus the D’Orsay, etc etc. There are just too many excellent galleries to visit on a normal holiday.
    Incidentally, those of you who like the work of Toulouse Lautrec, there is an excellent collection of his work in Albi housed in the old Bishops Palace there next to the beautiful Ste Cecile Cathedral. Well worth a detour to those travelling towards the south of France.
    (Ironically, the museum exists because his parents didn’t want to be burdened with his stuff when he died and hawked it around all the cities in France before the city of Albi finally accepted it. They were apparently ashamed of him even though it was their inbredness that caused his deformities.)

  3. George Christensen – “My thoughts: the truth is women are stupid and that is that.”

    Bet he thinks differently after Kate Lundy tore him a new one. 😉

  4. lizzie @ 57

    joe6pack & bemused

    Sorry, rushed off to put the dinner on and have just popped back. Thanks, bemused, you explained well. I should be more careful in my brief posts 😀

    I suspected it was something like that. Happy to help.

  5. [poroti
    Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

    For music fans John Walker of The Walker Brothers died of cancer over the weekend. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NQQkfsieWc ]

    peroti their hit ‘The Sun Ain’t Gonna Shine Anymore’, was magic. From Wikipedia…

    The Number 3 UK hit “My Ship Is Coming In”, originally recorded in 1965 by Soul singer Jimmy Radcliffe, followed, and then in March 1966, The Walker Brothers hit #1 for the second time in six months with “The Sun Ain’t Gonna Shine Anymore”. Their popularity in the UK – particularly that of Scott – reached a new high, especially among teenage girls, and their fan club in that country was said to have been larger than The Beatles’. Although “The Sun Ain’t Gonna Shine Anymore” also made the US Top 20, they had much less success in their home country.

    I remember when courting my soon to become bride, she and girl friends were in extasy over Scott Walker in particular.
    They were a very classy act, could all sing and the arrangements of their songs were superb. not many big names left from that golden era, the 50’s and 60’s

  6. Don’t you love Their ABC:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/05/09/3211890.htm?section=justin

    [At present, those people must undertake work experience on two days a week for six months a year.

    From July 1 next year, the obligation will be for 11 months of the year.

    Work experience includes training, part-time work, volunteer work relevant to their job goal or work for the dole.

    The Government believes the 11 months of work experience will bring the long-term unemployed into line with people with jobs who work for 11 months and have a month of leave.

    ]

  7. [
    67

    confessions

    Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 6:27 pm | Permalink

    Frank:

    That *is* tough!

    ]

    And what is wrong with doing 2 days a week – which includes Voluntry Work – so you can utulise your skills in your favourite community group or political party who are killing for volunteers.

  8. Poor Tony, he can’t take a trick.

    At 54/46 I would hate see what would happen if he did start taking some tricks!

    All Labor is doing at the moment is validating Liberal Party policies and ideology.

  9. I have no problem whatsoever with a long term unemployed person doing 2 days a week for 11 months a year.

    Sounds great.

  10. Frank:

    That *is* tough!

    Hmmm is in keeping with Gillard’s ever increase move to the right. Howard would be proud of this one. Julia Howard.

  11. Is it 2 days a week? I’ve obviously read it wrong. I read the article as saying they’d go from 2 days a week to the same as a FT person who has one month off a year.

  12. [confessions

    Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 6:36 pm | Permalink

    Is it 2 days a week? I’ve obviously read it wrong. I read the article as saying they’d go from 2 days a week to the same as a FT person who has one month off a year.
    ]

    Read again:

    [At present, those people must undertake work experience on two days a week for six months a year.

    From July 1 next year, the obligation will be for 11 months of the year.
    ]

  13. Re: their ABC, Mr Denmore had some good tweets on this today:

    [The ABC needs to realise it does not exist as a conduit for the media releases of politicians; otherwise why employ journalists.
    web • 9/05/11 15:09]

    why they continue to get away with this, at best, abject laziness is beyond me.

    The worst part is that its online news filters through to its radio and TV news too. Hence the endless “The Federal Opposition says…”

    FFS – political party press releases are not news — especially if they’re an opposition opposing something!

  14. [At present, those people must undertake work experience on two days a week for six months a year.

    From July 1 next year, the obligation will be for 11 months of the year.]

    Unclear to me. Sorry. Is there an actual govt announcement instead of having to read it secondhand?

  15. People keep saying Gillard is like Howard, but are unable to offer any evidence for this whatsoever.

  16. Crikey comment on Newspoll “Carbon Tax” question:

    [A very interesting segment from todays ‘Tips and Rumors’ segment in Crikey…

    “Loaded questions in NewsPoll call. I was a respondent to NewsPoll on Sunday May 1. The question requiring an opinion on the introduction of a carbon tax was classic push polling. We were asked, and I paraphrase, “Would you support a carbon tax if it meant that the price of food and power would rise substantially?” The Australian reported, unsurprisingly, that only 30% said yes! Given that the question omitted any reference to the government’s promise of substantial compensation when the carbon tax is introduced, it is astonishing that the figure in favour was as high as 30%.”]

    Actual question:

    [UNDER CARBON PRICING SCHEMES, THE PRICE OF ENERGY SOURCES SUCH AS PETROL, ELECTRICITY AND GAS MAY BECOME
    MORE EXPENSIVE. WOULD YOU PERSONALLY BE IN FAVOUR OR AGAINST PAYING MORE FOR ENERGY SOURCES, SUCH AS PETROL,
    ELECTRICITY AND GAS IF IT WOULD HELP SLOW THE CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSED BY HUMAN ACTIVITY?]

    http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/110408%20Climate%20Change.pdf

  17. [Hmmm is in keeping with Gillard’s ever increase move to the right. Howard would be proud of this one. Julia Howard]

    Stop baiting – nice try – next please!

  18. On #99 – yes, push polling.

    The intro statement had nothing to do with the question.

    SHAME on Newspoll.

    (Sorry, they don’t rig polls, do they William?)

  19. On #88 – yes, push polling.

    The intro statement had nothing to do with the question.

    SHAME on Newspoll.

    (Sorry, they don’t rig polls, do they William?)

  20. [All Labor is doing at the moment is validating Liberal Party policies and ideology.]
    Of course they are. We both know the Libs are for the mining tax and the CT and the Malaysian solution (they’ve been really been happy to see that) and the health reform. You really do come out with BS.

  21. [ruawake]

    On a local issue I have heard that Debbie Blummel is making a huge impression and may run for mayor , while V. Griffin has already conceded and won’t run again.

  22. There’s also the deliberately regularly underemployed, who leave jobs after a few months becuase they get bored. Then when their family gets sick of them after a few months of loans and loafing; they finally get a job again.

    Crack down on them I say. Make the seperation certificate process tougher.

  23. [confessions
    Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 6:40 pm | Permalink

    People keep saying Gillard is like Howard, but are unable to offer any evidence for this whatsoever]

    They both suck up the the Americans in a rather shlurpy sort of way. You have to admit that.

  24. I don’t think JG is moving to the right as much as she is following the putrid MSM as they herd the sheep into an orgy of bigotry and outrage hosted at the right of the spectrum. As much as is politically necessary to remain relevant at least.

  25. John Howard took early morning powerwalks; Julia Gillard likes those who set their alarm clocks early.

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