The latest Essential Research poll finds the parties locked in their post-carbon tax stasis, with the Coalition steady on 47 per cent, Labor steady on 35 per cent, the Greens up one to 10 per cent and two-party preferred steady on 54-46. The survey also includes the monthly approval rating, and finds both recovering from poor showings last time: Julia Gillard up four on approval to 41 per cent and down two on disapproval to 48 per cent, Tony Abbott up six on approval to 42 per cent and down four on disapproval 44 per cent (a trend replicated elsewhere), and Gillard’s preferred prime minister rating has narrowed fractionlly from 42-33 to 43-35. Further questions on the budget find 45 per cent believe the economy to be headed in the right direction – down six on post-2010 budget – and wrong direction up four to 29 per cent. Respondents were also asked about world terrorism and the death of Osama bin Laden, and a further question about our involvement in Afghanistan found opposition continuing to harden: those favouring an increase in troop numbers have dropped from 10 per cent to 5 per cent, those favouring withdrawal are up from 47 per cent to 56 per cent, while support for the existing commitment is steady on 30 per cent.
[They both suck up the the Americans in a rather shlurpy sort of way. You have to admit that.]
And have done for many years. Nothing new there.
bushfire
max would be proud
2 days a week for 11 months is hardly a massive stick.
[They both suck up the the Americans in a rather shlurpy sort of way. You have to admit that.]
So did Rudd. Latham never did, and…well, we all know what people think of him.
Julia Gillard loves talking about John Howard.
John Howard loves talking about John Howard.
[bluegreen
Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 6:46 pm | Permalink
2 days a week for 11 months is hardly a massive stick.
]
Especially whee it allows for Volunteer work ie your 2 days working for the local MP etc will be counted.
[So did Rudd. Latham never did, and…well, we all know what people think of him.]
If only Obi hadnt cancelled all his trips down under, we would still probably have PM Rudd.
[Especially whee it allows for Volunteer work ie your 2 days working for the local MP etc will be counted.]
Oi! 😡
[2 days a week for 11 months is hardly a massive stick.]
I’d actually like to see a govt announcement. The ABC article makes it sound as if the obligation will be increased to 4 days per week, 11 mths per year.
[Julia Gillard loves talking about John Howard.]
😆 I’ll give you that one.
[Next: is it “666? or “616??]
King Solomon says “641”.
[If only Obi hadnt cancelled all his trips down under, we would still probably have PM Rudd.]
Sometimes I wonder at people’s associative powers.
Julia Gillard goes from a place of residence to attend parliament.
John Howard went from a place of residence to attend parliament.
Jenauthor
i think one of obis visits was meant to be during the week that Rudd was axed.
It would have taken a very special effort to pull off the coup if that was the case.
I’m not entirely sure what goes on at Newspoll, BB, but I have never heard it alleged by anyone with a room temperature or higher IQ that they “rig their polls”. To the extent that that doesn’t apply to you – you should work on that.
[confessions
Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 6:50 pm | Permalink
2 days a week for 11 months is hardly a massive stick.
I’d actually like to see a govt announcement. The ABC article makes it sound as if the obligation will be increased to 4 days per week, 11 mths per year.
]
Read the OO article:
[THE hardcore unemployed will have to do two days work experience a week for 11 months of the year under tough new rules to be detailed in tomorrow’s federal budget.]
At present they only have to do those 2 days for 6 months.
[ And have done for many years. Nothing new there. ]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgXqubk6tYE
115
Celsius or Fahrenheit?
[i think one of obis visits was meant to be during the week that Rudd was axed.
It would have taken a very special effort to pull off the coup if that was the case.]
Ahhh — so Rudd would have stepped down a week later. Surely that would have changed everything? Not.
Jen
[Obama cancels trip to Australia
Phillip Coorey
June 4, 2010
US President Barack Obama has postponed his trip to Australia and Indonesia, an official says.
Mr Obama was due to visit both countries later this month, but White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said that Mr Obama was delaying the trip to some undetermined date with deep regret.
No immediate reason was offered but the decision follows the rapidly worsening oil spill crisis in the Gulf of Mexico.
It is the second time Mr Obama has cancelled a trip to Australia.
He was originally due here in March but stayed in Washington to steer his health reform legislation through the Senate.
The President and his family rescheduled the trip, which included a visit to Indonesia, for the week after next and was expected in Canberra about June 18.
Mr Obama was to have addressed a joint sitting of Parliament.
He called Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono last night to share the news.
Mr Gibbs said Mr Obama looked forward to rescheduling so he could visit both nations soon.
The cancellation will be a disappointment for Mr Rudd who would have been banking on receiving a lift in the polls from the visit by Mr Obama, who is still very popular in Australia.]
http://www.smh.com.au/national/obama-cancels-trip-to-australia-20100604-xjd6.html#ixzz1LqMeSiPm
and From wiki
[leadership challenge and resignation
On 23 June 2010, the Sydney Morning Herald reported that Rudd’s chief of staff, Alister Jordan, had talked to over half the Labor caucus to gauge the level of Rudd’s support within the party. This followed significant media speculation that his deputy, Julia Gillard, would attempt a leadership challenge. Late that evening, after it became clear he had lost the support of key factional leaders, Rudd announced that a leadership ballot would take place between himself and Gillard on 24 June, which he would be contesting. At the meeting, it was clear that Gillard had the numbers to win and Rudd opted not to contest, stepping down as both party leader and Prime Minister.[153] Rudd was not included in Gillard’s reshuffled ministry, though she committed to appoint him to a senior cabinet position if the Labor Party was re-elected]
Then there was a small matter of an oil leak that required Obi’s attention.
[William Bowe
Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 6:55 pm | Permalink
I’m not entirely sure what goes on at Newspoll, BB, but I have never heard it alleged by anyone with a room temperature or higher IQ that they “rig their polls”]
Surely any poll with the Coalition leading must have been rigged, mustn’t it?
😉
[cosmicjester cosmic jester
by helishingly
Gillard has some unique power at pissing off both the left and the right.]
Proof beyond all reasonable doubt she must be doing well at her job.
[THE hardcore unemployed will have to do two days work experience a week for 11 months of the year under tough new rules to be detailed in tomorrow’s federal budget.]
Thanks Frank. That’s much clearer. And as I type, the issue is leading ABC news!
[Ahhh — so Rudd would have stepped down a week later. Surely that would have changed everything? Not.]
No Jen. Not playing conspiracy theories here, its just how luck works for or against you sometimes.
It was Gillard’s (read factional leaders) only chance to do it before the winter recess.
With Rudd on the stage with Obama, it would have put the whole thing off for months.
Twice as good as JWH who only pissed off the left.
[I’m not entirely sure what goes on at Newspoll, BB, but I have never heard it alleged by anyone with a room temperature or higher IQ that they “rig their polls”. To the extent that that doesn’t apply to you – you should work on that.]
So, William, push polling isn’t rigging polls?
I challenge you to show me where the preamble to the poll has any logical or moral connection to the actual question.
[Surely any poll with the Coalition leading must have been rigged, mustn’t it?]
Matter of fact, Mod Lib, this feud between me and BB began early in 2010, when Newspoll had the temerity to show that Labor was only 52-48 in front. BB’s argument was that this could only possibly have been because News Limited was playing “dirty pool”. Events showed him up a fool – and he didn’t learned a goddamn thing from the experience.
A push poll is not a poll with a leading question. It is a pretend poll to spread rumours.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll
[abcqanda abcqanda
The Q&A studio audience tonight: ALP 35.5%, Coalition 45%, Greens 13% #qanda]
Looks like one to miss.
[So, William, push polling isn’t rigging polls?]
If Newspoll publish the question that respondents were asked – no, it’s not rigging polls. There is always room for dispute about how such things should be worded. On this occasion I don’t actually know what question you’re referring to, but I’m sublimely confident that you conviction it was a “push poll” says a lot more about you than it says about Newspoll.
[bluegreen
Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 7:00 pm | Permalink
Ahhh — so Rudd would have stepped down a week later. Surely that would have changed everything? Not.
No Jen. Not playing conspiracy theories here, its just how luck works for or against you sometimes.
It was Gillard’s (read factional leaders) only chance to do it before the winter recess.
With Rudd on the stage with Obama, it would have put the whole thing off for months.]
This is true. No way would have rudd got axed while obama was here or shortly after.
Confessions
Tonight’s qanda has Tanner and Turnbull. will you be watching?
william
do you think there should some form of regulation re polls
ie
no leading questions
independent auditting of results
confirmation of actual respondees
BB: perhaps if you just spelt out what your concern is with the question as asked?
Escapes me…
Excellent commentary on the Pokies Debate at Kings Tibune:
[ClubsAustralia’s latest tantrum is the “It’s un-Australian” campaign. Faced with the prospect of meaningful national poker machine reform, ClubsAustralia have lost the plot. This campaign not only made them a laughing stock within days of being launched, it’s also founded on a series of complete lies. But it’s what ClubsAustralia aren’t talking about that really tells the tale. It’s a topic they steer clear of because it defeats every argument they have. What it is that ClubsAustralia don’t want to talk about?
Poker machines.
Strange but true. Log on to the official campaign website. Home page? No mention of poker machines. Petition? Nope. Support us? Uh-uh. Contact your MP? Nada. There are very few direct references to poker machines anywhere on their site; even their slogans avoid the pokies. Why are ClubsAustralia so scared of talking about poker machines? Because the facts speak for themselves.]
http://bit.ly/liQQoi
ABC TV news (Canberra) had a fine 5-minute review of Jon Stanhope’s 13 years in our Assembly.
For example
Hello Madam,
We are from the Ingenuity Polling Company, would you mind if we ask you a few questions.
OK
Have you heard that there is an increasing level of public drunkeness in your area? Yes or No
Do you think that the current level of public drunkeness is too high?
What do youthink are the worst aspects of public drunkeness: noise, violence, ublic urination?
Did you know that your local MP was arrested for being drunk and disorderly, assaulting an officer, stealing a garden gnome and urinating on a public phone? yes or No.
Thank you, Bye Bye.
Now that is push-polling
[On a local issue I have heard that Debbie Blummel is making a huge impression and may run for mayor , while V. Griffin has already conceded and won’t run again]
J6P
The Big Bob is not upto the job meme is starting to bite, everywhere but Noosa. Griffin will get boned from her division (which seems to her to mean sitting on Grandview Drive and pissing on her neighbours).
Blumel is probably the best person for mayor, but as the perennial bridesmaid Labor candidate I doubt she will go close.
Yes, I do think that, Gusface. With regards to leading questions, “would you support a carbon tax if the revenue raised was used to compensate consumers” is, far, far more leading a question that “what is your position on the carbon tax based on what you know”, which I’m guessing is what the dispute is about here (please correct me if I’m wrong).
victoria:
I just might. 🙂
Dan Gulberry
Appreciate you posting link re pokies debate
[If Newspoll publish the question that respondents were asked – no, it’s not rigging polls.]
Absolutely. It seems from Crikey that, at least in one case, asked did not equal published. No proof, of course, unless the conversation was recorded.
confessions
Good. It might just be worth watching
Australian Polling Commission
🙂
william
i aint buying into the newspoll thingy
😉
just a long time ago i said the same to shanna’s and oshannesy on the abc radio
they both scoffed but couldnt say why they were against it
maybe an acma or similar could be handed responsibilty for ensuring polling integrity
Okay, I see we’re relating scuttlebutt from Crikey’s essentially meaningless “Tips and Rumours” section, a clearing house for literally anything Crikey gets told by whomever. Next …
I’m trying to figure out if reporters understand the govt’s new Malaysia policy. They keep reporting that there will be 800 asylum seekers sent to Malaysia as if they were going to be removed from the group that are already here. If they don’t think that’s going to happen then I guess they think there will be 800 keen volunteers to give up their $20k to the people smugglers just so they can be sent on to Malaysia.
The credulity is incredulous really.
Fiz
the first 800 will be dragged kicking and screaming onto qantas.
Just out of interest, does anyone know the rough cost of conducting a telephone poll of around 1000 people?